once this has happened, obviously it's not confirmed, what could happen to make this payment not successful?
If the transaction has a sufficient fee, then there's a very high likelihood it will be safe from a double spend. A few things could still happen however to make the payment unsuccessful:
1. A miner could have replace-by-fee enabled (which I'm not aware of any miner doing yet, as the standard Bitcoin client doesn't allow replace-by-fee) and the payer could replace the already propagated transaction with a double spend transaction with a higher fee.
2. A malicious miner, who is cooperating with the payer, could secretly include a double spend transaction from the payer in the block he is hashing on, and not propagate this transaction to other nodes. If he finds a block, the secret transaction will be confirmed and the propagated transaction will become invalid.
3. A Finney attack:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.48384