2014 should be a very big year.
We have a lot of obstacles to overcome before we get anywhere near a new ATH
Fundamental value reaches an ATH almost every day. Price just doesn't realize its error very often, and when it does, it over-corrects. To me the predictive question boils down to: How long does it take for price to realize the error that has crept in while value quietly but measurably grew? Or to put it another way: How long does it take for stealthy growth in value to create a visible stir which can no longer be ignored?
But perhaps there are other means of driving price which should not be neglected. Another sovereign debt crisis, for example. Another forced bank bail-in. Anything that makes debt and fiat suddenly repugnant. Changes in Swiss banking regulations could have a big impact, e.g.
Anyhow, these are long-term topics, while the OP's trend reversal concerns are much shorter-term, methinks.