Trend spotting in Bitcoin | Bitcointalksearch.org

deisik

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Quote from: jorneyflair on June 29, 2017, 05:50:46 AM

Quote from: Inmydomain on June 28, 2017, 08:49:08 AM

I'm interested to know peoples methods for trend spotting. Is anyone using the basic of models of elliot waves and fibonacci? Do people have more advanced models?

Alternatively do you believe that there is no way to model at all and the market just does what it does

There are going to be trends that will always be true, for example I can be sure that bitcoin is going to go up if a halving is coming up/already done. Every instance of a bitcoin halving, we have seen this happen. So we can safely say that this trend is established, and even if it not a true trend, all the people who believe in this trend to be true will drive the price up at the halving point

This is called fundamental analysis

But even fundamental analysis doesn't work as good in practice as many are inclined to think. For example, you mention reward halving, and simple logic and basic market laws tell us that if supply diminishes the price is set to rise (provided demand remains constant, obviously). So far so good. But if you look at real price data for year 2016 (when the last halving happened), you will see that the price had been massively rising for almost half a year before the halving, and just a few weeks before the actual event the price plummeted dramatically, and then it was hanging around 600-650 dollars per coin for a few months (even if we discard the Bitfinex hack which happened later in August). The bottom line is that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent (as per John Keynes)

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I agree, because of the unpredictable nature of the market, ordinary people like us who have limited trading knowledge are better off concentrating on the long term. My best advice or OP is to buy any dip in price and to always place low bids.

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Quote from: Inmydomain on June 28, 2017, 08:49:08 AM

I'm interested to know peoples methods for trend spotting. Is anyone using the basic of models of elliot waves and fibonacci? Do people have more advanced models?

Alternatively do you believe that there is no way to model at all and the market just does what it does

There are going to be trends that will always be true, for example I can be sure that bitcoin is going to go up if a halving is coming up/already done. Every instance of a bitcoin halving, we have seen this happen. So we can safely say that this trend is established, and even if it not a true trend, all the people who believe in this trend to be true will drive the price up at the halving point.

When you become experienced with bitcoin trading, you develop this feel for things. You just have this gut feeling of whether it's going to go up or down, and it's not going to be 100%. I don't believe in chart analysis, as it does not take into any outside influences, like human emotion, community engagement etc. and that's what ultimately decides price, humans.

My advice to you is - don't be caught in the short term, and only make a buck or two. Focus on the long term. I used to buy BTC and arbitrage sell it on another exchange. Thought i made a couple of bucks, but if i held then i would have made tens of thousands.

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Quote from: alyssa85 on June 29, 2017, 04:34:43 AM

Quote from: Inmydomain on June 28, 2017, 08:49:08 AM

I'm interested to know peoples methods for trend spotting. Is anyone using the basic of models of elliot waves and fibonacci? Do people have more advanced models?

Alternatively do you believe that there is no way to model at all and the market just does what it does

Technical analysis doesn't work that well for bitcoin, and that's because it isn't as liquid as other markets. A whale can crash the price (in order to trigger stops and buy cheap) using relatively little cash. Also, because bitcoin is unregulated, the amount of fud being spread around is phenomenal, as is the DDOS attempts on the exchanges to prevent trading at crucial periods.

Basically it's the wild west and techniques that work for other markets don't work fro bitcoin.

i agree 50% with you that TA doesn't work well for bitcoin but none of these things you mentioned change anything about what technical analysis tells us.
all the things you said mostly "magnify" what TA suggests. for example if the trend is up no FUD can put a dent in it. and if it is falling you can't do anything and any good news won't change it.
for example bitfinex stopping withdrawals should have stopped the price rise but it only made a short couple of days of uncertainty before price went to the moon.

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Quote from: Inmydomain on June 28, 2017, 08:49:08 AM

I'm interested to know peoples methods for trend spotting. Is anyone using the basic of models of elliot waves and fibonacci? Do people have more advanced models?

Alternatively do you believe that there is no way to model at all and the market just does what it does

Technical analysis doesn't work that well for bitcoin, and that's because it isn't as liquid as other markets. A whale can crash the price (in order to trigger stops and buy cheap) using relatively little cash. Also, because bitcoin is unregulated, the amount of fud being spread around is phenomenal, as is the DDOS attempts on the exchanges to prevent trading at crucial periods.

Basically it's the wild west and techniques that work for other markets don't work fro bitcoin.

deisik

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Quote from: Herbert2020 on June 29, 2017, 02:24:13 AM

Quote from: deisik on June 29, 2017, 02:07:45 AM

In fact, it is not even certain that most traders are using TA at all.

actually they do

Some traders certainly do, I don't doubt that

But whether they make profits specifically due to TA is another question. So far TA was irrelevant as such, since you could just buy and wait patiently till prices grew enough, then you would just sell at a local high and wait again till prices went down a certain percentage (so it all came down to patience). You could even calculate the average volatility for the last few months (i.e. how much Bitcoin goes down after reaching an ATH), though I don't know if that would count as one of TA methods and whether the real volatility would honor this number (which I strongly doubt). Anyway, I'm talking about the majority of traders, not some of them

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Quote from: PokerDiceMan on June 29, 2017, 01:03:25 AM

Quote from: Inmydomain on June 28, 2017, 08:49:08 AM

I'm interested to know peoples methods for trend spotting. Is anyone using the basic of models of elliot waves and fibonacci? Do people have more advanced models?

Alternatively do you believe that there is no way to model at all and the market just does what it does

fibonanci or suport and demand is good indicator to analys trend
but is good use time frame H4 or D1

That is an interesting point, when you track bitcoin depending on the time horizon you see very different things. For example over a week it is very easy to see the M or W shapes but how relevant is this?

I think it must depend on the overall aim of the analysis, short or long term holding etc.

Inmydomain

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Quote from: deisik on June 28, 2017, 12:56:47 PM

Quote from: Inmydomain on June 28, 2017, 08:49:08 AM

I'm interested to know peoples methods for trend spotting. Is anyone using the basic of models of elliot waves and fibonacci? Do people have more advanced models?

Alternatively do you believe that there is no way to model at all and the market just does what it does

Why would you need that?

I mean why would you need all those sophisticated tools like Elliot waves (outright bullshit) and Fibonacci numbers (not very far from) if you can just look at the charts for the last few days and see the trend with the naked eye? Or do you really think that the more sophisticated the approach is the higher the potential benefits and the better results you will get? I guess you will be just wasting your time and energy. If something doesn't give you more profits in any meaningful way, it should be discarded as irrelevant without regrets, hesitations or excuses

I agree that the best situation minimizes time and energy, but there must be a reason why traders in tradition markets (FX, equity, commodities etc) use sophisticated models, there must be the belief that the market can be outperformed.

One question is can the crypto market be modeled in a similar way, i imagine someone is making an attempt to but of course it is all guess work

Herbert2020

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Quote from: deisik on June 29, 2017, 02:07:45 AM

In fact, it is not even certain that most traders are using TA at all.

actually they do.

Quote

As you can see, there is too little ground to make it look like a "self-filfilling prophecy"

again it is not prophecy, or prediction. it is more like an outline of possibilities.

deisik

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Quote from: Herbert2020 on June 29, 2017, 01:32:09 AM

Quote from: deisik on June 28, 2017, 12:56:47 PM

Quote from: Inmydomain on June 28, 2017, 08:49:08 AM

I'm interested to know peoples methods for trend spotting. Is anyone using the basic of models of elliot waves and fibonacci? Do people have more advanced models?

Alternatively do you believe that there is no way to model at all and the market just does what it does

Why would you need that?

I mean why would you need all those sophisticated tools like Elliot waves (outright bullshit) and Fibonacci numbers (not very far from) if you can just look at the charts for the last few days and see the trend with the naked eye? Or do you really think that the more sophisticated the approach is the higher the potential benefits and the better results you will get? I guess you will be just wasting your time and energy. If something doesn't give you more profits in any meaningful way, it should be discarded as irrelevant without regrets, hesitations or excuses

technical analysis is not for future prediction it is future speculation.
i am not an expert in this field but with little knowledge i have and with analysis that i have seen so far, it helps a lot to make a sense of what is going on. and as a result it is not a waste of time at all to learn it and find for some good ones out there.

and also on top of that sometimes it is not what happens in real world but what people expect to happen. for example if majority are using analysis and then coming to the conclusion that price is going below certain level then it will happen because will act based on it

This is no more than your assumption

It never happens in practice (unless by pure coincidence, never forget about the broken clock), and it can't possibly happen since there is not just one (or even two) method(s) of technical analysis (many TA approaches would give you contradictory signals if applied for real). Apart from that, it is impossible that all people would be using exactly the same method which could somehow justify your claim. In fact, it is not even certain that most traders are using TA at all. As you can see, there is too little ground to make it look like a "self-filfilling prophecy"

Herbert2020

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Quote from: deisik on June 28, 2017, 12:56:47 PM

Quote from: Inmydomain on June 28, 2017, 08:49:08 AM

I'm interested to know peoples methods for trend spotting. Is anyone using the basic of models of elliot waves and fibonacci? Do people have more advanced models?

Alternatively do you believe that there is no way to model at all and the market just does what it does

Why would you need that?

I mean why would you need all those sophisticated tools like Elliot waves (outright bullshit) and Fibonacci numbers (not very far from) if you can just look at the charts for the last few days and see the trend with the naked eye? Or do you really think that the more sophisticated the approach is the higher the potential benefits and the better results you will get? I guess you will be just wasting your time and energy. If something doesn't give you more profits in any meaningful way, it should be discarded as irrelevant without regrets, hesitations or excuses

technical analysis is not for future prediction it is future speculation.
i am not an expert in this field but with little knowledge i have and with analysis that i have seen so far, it helps a lot to make a sense of what is going on. and as a result it is not a waste of time at all to learn it and find for some good ones out there.

and also on top of that sometimes it is not what happens in real world but what people expect to happen. for example if majority are using analysis and then coming to the conclusion that price is going below certain level then it will happen because will act based on it.

PokerDiceMan

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Quote from: Inmydomain on June 28, 2017, 08:49:08 AM

I'm interested to know peoples methods for trend spotting. Is anyone using the basic of models of elliot waves and fibonacci? Do people have more advanced models?

Alternatively do you believe that there is no way to model at all and the market just does what it does

fibonanci or suport and demand is good indicator to analys trend
but is good use time frame H4 or D1

ActiveP

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Quote from: Inmydomain on June 28, 2017, 08:49:08 AM

I'm interested to know peoples methods for trend spotting. Is anyone using the basic of models of elliot waves and fibonacci? Do people have more advanced models?

Alternatively do you believe that there is no way to model at all and the market just does what it does

The market does what it wants, it's all demand, supply and the market equilibrium. If you can figure out if, why and when people and investors want a particular coin - understanding the laws of demand - Not only will you get an intuition of when to buy or sell, you will make a killing.

Fibonacci and the rest only blow smoke up your arris. Develop your own model and what works for you.

deisik

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Quote from: Inmydomain on June 28, 2017, 08:49:08 AM

I'm interested to know peoples methods for trend spotting. Is anyone using the basic of models of elliot waves and fibonacci? Do people have more advanced models?

Alternatively do you believe that there is no way to model at all and the market just does what it does

Why would you need that?

I mean why would you need all those sophisticated tools like Elliot waves (outright bullshit) and Fibonacci numbers (not very far from) if you can just look at the charts for the last few days and see the trend with the naked eye? Or do you really think that the more sophisticated the approach is the higher the potential benefits and the better results you will get? I guess you will be just wasting your time and energy. If something doesn't give you more profits in any meaningful way, it should be discarded as irrelevant without regrets, hesitations or excuses

Inmydomain

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Merit: 10

I'm interested to know peoples methods for trend spotting. Is anyone using the basic of models of elliot waves and fibonacci? Do people have more advanced models?

Alternatively do you believe that there is no way to model at all and the market just does what it does

Topic: Trend spotting in Bitcoin (Read 654 times)