Topic: Trump isn’t the only ‘story’ driving Bitcoin’s price higher, says exec (Read 810 times)

For estimates based on my personal analysis, I think the effect of the increase in bitcoin is also inseparable from Trump being elected as the US president because he was quite vocal about bitcoin during the campaign and it was different when Harris won the election and it is not certain that bitcoin could rise like it is now. If you count the previous halving and maybe for now there has been no bull run because based on the previous cycle, bitcoin should have approached the halving again next year. But there is always no certainty about that because what happened was the opposite and bitcoin approached the post-halving faster than the cycle count.

My assumption is related to Trump's victory, although it is also not separate from several other events that occurred so that bitcoin got a bull run faster than expected. I could have missed some other estimates, but I see this as related to Trump who won the US election.

Bitcoin is just a small part of the world economy so anything that affects the economy will also affect bitcoin.

Who becomes the president of the United States is always a top concern of the world because the future of the world economy depends on their policies. Whether the world becomes better or worse largely depends on their leadership, so don't try to deny Trump's role and influence on bitcoin. His victory wasn't the only factor, but it clearly played a major role in bitcoin's recent surge.
I know many people will not like this blunt truth because a politician influencing bitcoin will not be good for it but we need to accept the fact that they can influence bitcoin the way they want.

Bitcoin ETF approval is one obviously, as it was the catalyst for a new all time high before the halving. It's the first time that we have seen in Bitcoin history, that achieving a all time high before halving hasn't been done before.

In 2020, and not go to too technical, we have the pandemic, and yet the price did move to where we expect it to be during that time, leading to the bull run of 2021. So there could be events, whether geo-political that can really affect the price of Bitcoin.

Yes, the important thing is that this effect brought good news for the market, it has already passed the $100k range at most they said no, that they were not going to achieve it , and it Cannot be denied that this is not only because of the Trump effect but due to the economic policies that have already been implemented, that some investors already feel more confident with BTC , to invest without fear because they know they will give good profits, all of this is due to the normal events of a market, not just Trump, it is understood, but without the Trump effect we would not be living this.

Yeah, there could be other factors, but we can't deny it though. What do we think if Kamala Harris won though? Could be the price in the 6 digit by now? I highly doubt it. Of course we don't want politics to get involved, nevertheless, Bitcoin is too big that every news around will have a big effect on it's price, positive or negative.

So it just so happened that Trump being pro-crypto President or at least uses Bitcoin as a tool to make him win. And now we as crypto enthusiast is going to benefit from it and one of those benefits is seeing the price getting into the $100,000 for the first time in our short history.

Never let politics be the reason for believing in something, there are far better reasons behind the scenes then just a name of one person.

Same for BTC there are a multitude of reasons for price to drive higher.  The hesitation this year was linked to the sharp move at the start of the year.  For much higher prices the revision and consolidation was necessary and helpful to future growth.

I think we'll need an additional reason for a proper next stage to BTC.  Trump is a known story, I'd love if he had magic tricks coming out of a top hat somehow unseen until the magic performed but we can see most things what will happen right now.

I imagine we need to see a Dollar index trade lower below 100 and this will loosen the reins on BTC with some relative currency weakness.  Just this simple process would be enough for the whole next year to be bullish beyond present prices.
  My reference for that would be the summer of 2020 which I think started with a lower DXY, the autumn and winter of course was great rises in BTC.

I will say as of now that everything work altogether for the bitcoin market to pump this far, we are still having the effect of the post halving experience form the market price which obviously affects it demand and supply, then the election as well now turned to be the booster to having this coming this fast, because if there was no any election, we are still going to have the all time high and cross to $100,000 but just that we may not know how sooner this might have occur.

Yes true, a lot of people started to believe in bitcoin after trump, and there is no denying that he had some part played in this increase. However, the point isn't "did trump had anything to do with it", the point is, "is trump the sole reason for it?" and I can tell you that he isn't.

We all know that halving played a big role, and even ETF's played a big role as well, so those were the important parts, and of course trump played a role too. Basically we had all of these together that come together and had a better future for us all combined. This doesn't mean that we can make a discussion about this and get away with a single reason, we have to realize that all of them are all great reasons together make for a big increase.

The reasons for the price increase for each halving vary, but basically a halving is a reduction in the reward per block which makes bitcoin increasingly scarce. The price of bitcoin rises due to increased demand, this is the basic law of why the price rises, but there are also reasons that drive the increase in interest.

Trump's victory as US president has made many investors optimistic about a better future for bitcoin. He is one of the many people who supports bitcoin and invests in it (as far as I know), so market optimism grows because of it. Legalization and more favorable adjustments to bitcoin can certainly be expected during his term as president, but these are our expectations of him.

Bitcoin halving works to increase the price of Bitcoin, but it is certainly foolish to assume that the halving effect is the only reason for the current position of Bitcoin price. We have seen Bitcoin halvings before where Bitcoin price increased, but the hype that has arisen at the present time would not have been possible if Trump had not come to power and a big proof of this is that even after the halving, the price of Bitcoin did not exceed 73k, but when Trump was elected, people from all walks of life gained confidence in investing in Bitcoin, as a reflection of which we are seeing a total market cap of about 4 trillion, which was not there before in the history of crypto.

It's true, I agree, many say that it was the natural course of the market that would lead to this price, I also tell them that it was not and it is all because of a political problem, if here in the forum we put politics first things will not flow much, it is known that bitcoin does not move because of politics, only this presidential event surpassed what many of us believed, when I saw that Donald Trump won, I visualized myself with bitcoin at $100k, immediately, with Kmalaa it was $50k or less, that simple.

I feel like the most important, yet underestimated factor, is the amount of bitcoin left on exchanges. This number steadily goes down and it's obvious that there's not enough bitcoin to satisfy demand in the long run if it remains similar to what it has been in the last 2 or 3 cycles. A lower number of purchasable bitcoin leads to a supply shock and what we're seeing, this small raid towards $100k is just a beginning. May analysts predict that at some point, when country adoption becomes higher, miners will not be able to satisfy the demand and exchanges will run out of BTC and sellers will see there's no market depth at a given level and simply move their orders up to see how much the buyer is willing to pay.

The price of bitcoin to be driven was first started as a result of Donald Trump triumphing in the presidential elections, but the effect of his winning wouldn’t have lasted this long and to see bitcoin coming this far in price. The effect of Donald Trump on the bitcoin is far over in my opinion and the market is just obeying its post halving effects that always occur after every halving has taken place. If Kamala Harris have won the elections, bitcoin may not have started pumping immediately but by how it should have been in the bull momentum already and nothing could stop it from not obeying its post halving effect that always occur after every four years. Just as the news have said I totally believe bitcoin is obeying now.

There are many things in the market that we as market speculators and investors do not know, in this case Trump was the trigger for the price of BTC to go up, that cannot be denied, but if it is happening for other things it must also be considered, it is simple, BTC does not go up or down only for politics, but Trump did give it a boost so that the price would go up and that is something that must be seen.

If Trump had not won, the market circumstances would not have been the same, they would have been different, perhaps very bad.

It was just that a good add up on which we cant be able to deny that it did make out some significant impact into Bitcoins price or simply on the entire market on which it did make out some bullish momentum.
We do know that news and fundamentals could really be give out that effect but it would really be just that temporal. Honestly, im not really that trusting up that much when it comes to those news and other fundamentals that it will really be lasting up until the end. We do know that when it comes to personal decisions and views of a certain individual could really be making up some u-turn on which it will really be that resulting into some negative and this isnt the first time that did happen into this market but already on several times. Therefore, it will really be always that good or better that you do expect the unexpected to happen because there's no way that these things will remain up and decisions could really be that goes south or go into the other path. Lets just be thankful into what happened into that US election on which it did make out some positive effect on the entire crypto market space specially into those people who had invested and goes for short term positions which they did really benefit out the most.

If that is not a question of seeing who is better or worse as president, but we must not take away credit that the price of bitcoin rose thanks to the push that Donald Trump gave it when he won, and there is nothing bad about that, on the contrary, those who are bothered by assuming that is because it affects them that he won, people are very political and in the end that is not good, it creates enmity, enemies unnecessarily, bitcoin was going to rise, but also perhaps not for this moment, for me it was going to rise fully by 2025, but we are in a good moment, it should be taken advantage of.

It was just that only one of the reasons and not really that something that main thing on why Bitcoin did able to break its all time high and creates a new one. It did really just that make out some timing on the moment
when US election happens and since there's a sentiment that Trump is a pro Bitcoin or crypto then it goes in line with that impressions on which it did really go with the flow and that makes the price made out some
kind of influence but of course we dont really know on whats behind the pump or no one really knows on whats happening behind the curtains.

Well, it doesnt matter on what are the actual reason behind yet this market is always been that unpredictable and truly random on which there's no way that we could be able to know on whats the reason behind with those pumps. For those investors who do believe that Trump-thing actually the main reason on why this market pumped up then those are those individuals who are really that newbie into this crypto space.
Experienced and those veteran ones do really knows on how this market works and behaves on which there's no such thing about fundamentals that causes up for things to pump up
like this one or the actual reason on which there's no person on this world knows on whats the main thing on here.

Yes this is correct, abusing a specific religious is actually bad and has led to her failure even though she was pulling weights and most people seems to be happy with her during her campaign doesn't mean that she would had won the election, and people do not like her because she wasn't speaking anything good towards Bitcoin and cryptocurrency at large causing to her failure. Of course Trump knows the heart of the youths and also knows what they are facing and he has came to fix up those loopholes and I believe Trump to be stringent with his words even though it's said of not trusting a politician I can assure that he would at least fullfil about 70-80 percent of promises.

Same thought tho what’s actually behind the pump, Trump can be considered the major factor yet other features triggering the price also. Did Harris ever mentioned bitcoin or cryptocurrency in general during her campaign? I’m curious to know because most words should stay silent as actions speak louder than words, the fact she didn’t care should be considered as though she’s not interested. The price of bitcoin will hit another ATH but not so fast maybe the price might move slow under probability, we still don’t know what’s happening even with Trump let’s watch out after a correction.

It's time to give Trump all his flowers;
When ATH came before halving, we knew it was ETF approval;
However, the pump could be caused by many positive effects this year, but the recent and the most advantageous is the one caused by Trump.

Harris won't have win the the election, because since the record of u.s female has never role u.s and many people will not accept such, secondly Kamala Harris abuse Christians during her campaign o think that should be another thing that made lost against Donald trump, because many did not like her method of speech during the campaign, for Donald Trump, embraced the youth and also agreed to facilitate everything that will bring developments in u.s and also things that will give youths joy, so president trump knows the problems of  the people already.

I would assume that people all around the world already said that this wasn't the reason for a while, this is why nobody aside from trump fans believe that it was trump that made this happen. I understand that trump fans think that just because trump is pro-crypto that means the increase is because of him, but the reality is that everyone already said before the election that the price will go up after the election.

Just think about it, it's us who are buying, did he take power and do anything about crypto? Of course not, he is not the president yet, so we can definitely say that it's just us, you and me, and everyone else here, and we can't really contribute our own success to someone else. Why not take credit for yourself? I bought some bitcoin, sure small, but I did, and many people like me did, and we made it go up and that is why we can't really consider this situation all because of trump when we know that we contributed to it more than he did.

I likely agree with you, when we talk about the major factor at which the price of Bitcoin began it's movement then we can't exempt Trump win or put him in the second position. Trump's win or not we are definitely going to reach a significant all time high but to be honest enough i wrongly want to accept it would happen this sudden and in bit of a time we already have acquired a decent price over what we speculated and still having lots of time to spare on hitting further price mark. With the kind influence from Trump we are not far from hitting the most ATH of $150K, coming next year when he finally emerges on power.

Bitcoin 100k price have long been expected remember the last time Bitcoin did around 65k all time high about a year or two ago, and at that time many Bitcoin speculators were heading towards a 100k Bitcoin price and for sure it was caught short but this time, Bitcoin have the chance to reach 100k haven't broken several all time high prices within 80k-90k+ in the last few days, and very possible that Bitcoin be making the 100k all time high price pretty soon.


For Bitcoin two things have made it mainstream price spike this season which are.
1: post Bitcoin halvens.
2: Trump Bitcoin friendly campaign and victory as US president.

They decide not to give him the credit because many people do not like the fact that Donald Trump won. Even through he was supporting cryptocurrency, they wanted a woman president to win and not someone that has alot of negative images surrounding him, they also do not want to give him the credit because it will now look like Bitcoin needs someone to increase in price. I have always said that regardless of who won, in the long run Bitcoin would had still gotten a new highest price but because of the influence of Donald Trump and him not being against the cryptocurrency industry, we will begin to see better prices than what we had in mind that was going to happen. It is very bullish for the president of USA to be pro Bitcoin and not anti Bitcoin.

That is true, we would have seen nothing change but we can't see that unfortunately. In any case, does it really matter at all? I mean think about it we are increasing and we are doing fine, we peaked up to 98k and we are seeing bitcoin be pumped and it's not even over yet, we are going to end up seeing even more on the long run. That is why we shouldn't really be worried about what's the main reason behind this, if people want to believe that all because of Trump then let them believe about it because it's Trump.

At the end of the day, the only thing that matters is the price going up and if the price is going up then we are going to end up getting a good return eventually. So, this isn't really an important part of the discussion, we are increasing and "why" that happens makes no difference at all. We will keep increasing as well, we have months of bull run ahead of us and investing right now is still very profitable even after this much increase.

The post-halving hasn’t directly caused a sudden price spike, but that doesn’t mean it’s all because of Trump either. We should remember there are still many contributing factors. In fact, the current trading volume is unusually high compared to what we’ve seen in the past, which means something different is happening. Another factor could be the holiday season coming up; we’ve seen it impact bitcoin prices in previous years.

For now, it’s tough to pinpoint the exact reason, but in my view, Trump’s victory could mark the beginning of a major shift in Bitcoin’s trend.

Despite the surge, we haven’t hit $100k yet—but yes, there’s still room for more!

I think I agree with your crystal ball scenario

I personally think if Trump had not made comments about adding Bitcoin to the Government holdings
the market would not be at $98k on the 21st of November 2024?

Personally I believe there is a deal of FOMO happening ATM, Saylor is FOMO'ing for sure and possibly
other buyers and first time serious buyers are buying to get ahead of the impact the US buying in
in 2025 is going to have. [if it happens at all??]

As always there are many or at least a few factors affecting the market ATM, and all acting to pump to $98k.

Supply
$100,000 target
FOMO
Trump

you can't take out the place of an inductive reasoning from a scenario where news, a whales entry into the bitcoin space, wars and  buys and sell all contribute to driving bitcoin price high or low. the four year cycle is a thing but as much as that is a consideration for bitcoin getting higher, we can't also rule out the effect of trumps victory from the bull we are experiencing.

even though in the build up to this bull, we had anticipated to see bitcoin going up before the end of the year after the bitcoin halving took place and somehow, it could be part of the reason for the current bitcoin price increase, what's more known at the moment as the primary cause is the effect of trumps victory. when bitcoin spot ETF was the reason for bitcoin bull, it was not about the halving or the four year cycle and now that all pointer shows that this is a trump effect, it's not wrong if analyst always mention trump when discussion about bitcoin price increase is being talked about.

I think you misinterpreted my post. I was referring to the short term price spike in November.

For example, the final push through the March 2024 high of 73.6k came just during the night of the US election, when the results got better and better for Trump. It's almost impossible that this was a coincidence.

It is possible that we could have seen also a push towards this ATH in November due to expectations related to the "Q4 pump" we saw during years like 2016, 2017, 2021 and 2023 or the "post-halving pump" from 2016 and 2020, but imo it would have very likely been slower. The 73k resistance would have probably held some weeks more. It is also possible that the price would have taken more time to reach the 65-70k level in October without Trump's pro-crypto rhetoric in combination with the positive tendency for him in opinion polls and on Polymarket in October.

For me it's like you wrote: "his win might have fast-tracked things a bit". My own alternative history crystal ball is that BTC would be fighting with the ATH and perhaps be at 75-78k if Harris won, and price level could have stood even a bit lower (60-65k area, maybe) if there was no election at all because the fact that crypto was mentioned by both candidates' campaigns (although of course much more by Trump's) is quite a novelty and an interesting step towards acceptance of crypto by the political sphere.

For over a year now, people have speculated about the price of Bitcoin based on its halving. Many people have predicted over $100k, while some believed we would see a new ATH but not up to $100k. Some even said it would get to $200k. All these predictions happened even before Trump started his campaign, so now, why does it seem like the price of Bitcoin is something that would never have happened without Trump's win?
I understand that his win might have fast-tracked things a bit, but it would have still happened with or without the win.

trump's effect did a lot to improve the sentiment though, people were hesitant to long BTC before, despite obvious pattern that BTC is making literally reversal when it's about to hit descending channel pattern, then US election comes in and suddenly people become so bullish, I won't discredit both factor, but we can say that both factor plays a big role in helping BTC make this milestone.
not everyday you see BTC just keep going up creating new ATH for many times and the buy pressure is still strong.
people are definitely optimistic toward BTC these days seeing the price action alone.

That is true and people will always try to find a reason why the price went up, they would say anything they could without admitting that bitcoin could go up without a specific reason. I mean the reality is that bitcoin goes up because it does that every 4 years and that's the reason, there isn't really a need for anything else. We don't need ETF's, we do not need Elon, we do not need Kamala, none of those could happened and we would still be high, the price could change but the momentum wouldn't.

Sure, maybe we would be less than 93k at all time high, or maybe we would have been higher, I don't really know but that doesn't mean that we are going to end up with a greater change on momentum, it would have been still up and that is how you are going to get better. If people keep thinking that we are going to increase then we are going to see a greater results since people who believe that will end up thinking how great they could do and buy, and when they buy, the price goes up.

I remember the halving that happened four years ago, many people speculated that Elon Musk was the mastermind behind the increase in the price of Bitcoin and also Doge, although that is true but not all of it is the result of the current surge in Bitcoin from Elon's actions, Doge could be but not for Bitcoin, I think this story is almost the same, almost the whole world is speculating on the current surge in Bitcoin being caused or Trump's victory, actually if you look closely and study it in detail, Trump hasn't done anything, just talked publicly about crypto.

In essence, anyone who speculates about the current price of Bitcoin and Trump, if they speculate that Trump is not the cause, I agree, Generally Americans are jumping into the world of crypto, they are driving up the current price of Bitcoin with massive purchases taking place in the US, Trump is a promoter of belief, not the main role.

Yes, both could be possible reasons why bitcoin price is very bullish at the moment. However, we could not also ignore other key factors that have unlocked the bullish season for bitcoin. First is, the increasing institutional adoption for bitcoin. Companies like Tesla, MicroStrategy and Grayscale have been added to the major institutions that have decided to adopt bitcoin. And because of this, it boosted public awareness that eventually convinced the people to trust and invest in bitcoin.

Next is, the favorable regulatory developments for bitcoin. Most especially that Trump is on our side now, it won’t be surprising anymore that there will be more promotion and development for bitcoin in the next years ahead.

Or if we look at the big picture, the US stock market. Before the election, according to some surveys, the stock market also expected Trump to win because they also believed that he would bring more good things to the market. As a result, not only Bitcoin but the entire US stock market such as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones rose following the news of Trump's victory. It is clear that Trump's victory has had a positive impact on the entire stock market, not just bitcoin. So I also believe that the recent surge in Bitcoin price has more to do with Trump's victory than the impact of the halving.

Traders buy AND sell. Miners only sell. Buying and selling the same bitcoin increases the volume but doesn't increase demand.

The post-halving effect on the price of Bitcoin is small.
The Trump winning had the most effect towards the price of Bitcoin right now.

Both had the effects - particularly positive effects, but Trump winning the US election had the most effect to where the price of Bitcoin is right now. I think we already knew that Trump's winning will be a catalyst towards the bull run and the price of Bitcoin going up massively, and that's what we saw a few weeks after the election. If Harris won the election, I believe the effect would be positive towards Bitcoin. The sentiments of the investors heavily affect the price of cryptocurrencies, and if she won, the sentiment will be negative thus, prices of all coins including Bitcoin will go down temporarily.

TBH, Trump's winning is what I think will be the only catalyst towards the bull market and it's good that he won. Just imagine many are expecting for the bull run to happen, but because Harris won, it didn't happen. We could've seen the price of Bitcoin at the $60,000 range right now.

Agreed! However, we can observe and we can certainly say that the Donald Trump's victory on the election was the biggest cause of the present pump after the halving. There will be many people who hate Trump who will say that this pump is not because of the optimism of him being the next president has brought to the cryptospace. The super woke pink hair democrats in the forum can reject it if that is their decision, but this is certainly the Trump pump

Rather than post-halving, wouldn't it just be the result of the market going so high that sellers who wanted to sell couldn't sell because, well, the market continued going up? This also introduced a lot of other investors who wanted to enter the market immediately since the market was pumping. So it's kind of like the action before pushing another narrative to push the market. I guess you could still reason it's the election though since it's still the leading cause, but definitely think the halving doesn't have that much of a power now compared to the past. Or even if it had, we'd usually see it by next year instead no?

And no, if Kamala won I reckon we'd just see the same market we've seen for the past couple of months.

I think something, if it is known that even the blindest person realized that Donald Trump activated the market, why do they insist so much on taking away that merit? Why? What do they gain? The most important thing is that the price is high, and it is very obvious that with Kamala Harris we would be seeing a huge drop in BTC, so I understand that there are many people in the USA who are still crying because their candidate did not win, but it is time to accept that things happen for a reason, and if this was the Trump effect, then let it continue because everything looks very good, no way, when he takes office it will surely be another ATH.

I think they are wrong for thinking that Trump wins is not the main reason why the market has being this bullish. If Kamala had won, I do not think the price of Bitcoin will be this high right now and it is still thinking about moving higher from the movement of the market. Trump wins triggered the whole market and it is not only Bitcoin benefiting but altcoins are also getting a share of the money coming into the market. Trump wins is the main story that is making others to think about investing in Bitcoin. There are other factors contributing but we can not make trump's win to be like a small impact. When the president and the vice with some other important figures in power working together for a better future, the market will just have to be green.

I think, this is what happened, everyone was expecting that Trump's win would positively affect the Bitcoin's price. Yes, we know deep in our heart that what he was saying wasn't actually good for Bitcoin and it was all populist but, it was populist and it would work, that's why many people were making bets on positive crypto price if Trump was about to win. I think that majority of traders were waiting for the result of US presidential elections. Since their bet was on green light to Bitcoin in case Trump wins, we saw a huge jump in Bitcoin's price. This doesn't mean that Bitcoin wouldn't rise if Kamala Harris has won, no, it would rise but not today and not with such a speed. Trump's victory was an accelerator to Bitcoin's price increase, that's all. With or without Trump or Kamala Harris, Bitcoin would rise again because the halving has happened and the demand increases, so it was inevitable anyway.

I think this is enough to end the debate. The price of bitcoin immediately spiked after it became obvious that Donald Trump was winning the election and due to his promising pre-election speeches about bitcoin made a lot of investors started buying bitcoin when the news of Trump's winning became viral. Before the election, on 4th of November, the price was around $68k. On getting to the election date (5th November), the price skyrocket to $93k that's the current ATH. So these rapid movement after the election was conducted is as a result of the impact of the party that won the election and not any post-halving effect.

Common, give the US what it deserves, the price spiked exactly after the elections, and Doge went up exactly after the announcement, remember how the ETF approval triggered the last bull run?  Actually, do you think that if it weren't for the good news coming from the US Bitocin would still magically increase in price with nothing to trigger that run? It will just go up like that every 4 years no matter what happens in the world? Nuclear war or an asteroid impact or global recession BTC will go up no matter what?

Every single penny we see now over the 60k mark is because of the results in the US election, you might now like it but this is reality, all we see now is hope that the biggest economy in the world and the financial center of it will turn more positive to crypto.

Well, it's almost every time after halving, so it snot really a "news", we knew this but Americans don't really know it. They have this American grand ego, where they think everything must be about them, like how all the alien movies where aliens arrive to New York or something lol. I am not saying Trump had nothing to do with it, of course he played a big role, of course, but mainly for timing, if there were absolutely no American elections this year, the price would still go up, every four years it does, it doesn't matter if a republican wins or a democrat wins, it always goes up.

So, we just need to realize that four year cycle is something that happens after halving every time, and we are seeing the impact of that, with a bit of nudge from trump of course.

We have had 2 bull runs this year and I don't see much connection to the halving. We had a bull run in March before the halving and the main catalyst was the approval of bitcoin ETFs, and had almost nothing to do with the halving. I remember that from the halving to the election day, Bitcoin had almost no significant growth, and Bitcoin even stagnated and moved sideways uncomfortably, making people feel depressed. But the market started to get volatile as election day approached, and the second bull run immediately happened on election day and things got crazier when the media confirmed Trump's victory.

Furthermore, if we look at the overall picture of the US financial markets, all of them grew very well after the news of Trump's victory, not just bitcoin. Yes, we need to accept the fact that Trump is the one who has driven the recent bull run.

The post-halving effect would not have been a sudden pump, it's not like out of the blue suddenly the demand increased 50% to totally outstrip the supply, and furthermore, if we look at the roice on a yoy time frame the daily coins issuance in $ is still 30% despite the block halving.
Also, side note, I did not expect this from Cointelegraph:

This is wrong, the halving cut the reward, it didn't affect the difficulty, you can have a halving and a difficulty decrease making blocks "easier" to solve, if the author is trying to explain price movement but can grasp the basics then his whole theory is doomed to fail.

I call bullshit.  What we have a president that previously attacked bitcoin with his like kind changes in 2018. We have a president known to lie and lie and lie.

We have a president that lawsuits are a way of life for him. And millions of morons that believe he is better for BTC when all of BTC's highs came under Joe Biden.

Like I wrote before BTC will do fine for the next 2 months then reality sets in Trump gets his powers back and we get to see what he will really do.

BTW maybe it will be good. USA has had a lot of issues for a lot of years so this certainly will be interesting I am looking forward to find out  what he does.

It's obvious that this recent spike is due to Trump winning the election as he is supposedly a pro-Bitcoin US president. My take is the post halving effect is that we should have felt it even before the election, maybe around September the price could be in a bull run but it's not. However, we have to take into account the pre-halving, we already have a new all time high.

So it's really change the cycle as this is the first time that we have seen it. But then again, in every bull run, there is some sort of catalyst besides the halving, and so in this cycle, it's Trump winning the election. And it could be bigger next year when he officially sits in the White House in January. With that, we should accept the fact that it was really Trump who drives this bull run and into a new all time high in 2025.

I wonder, assuming Harris wins and the market dumps, what would those who deny Trump's victory is positively impacting Bitcoin say? Do they blame Harris or will they say that the bitcoin price correction has been going on for months and is not over yet, and not because Harris was elected?

I'm not saying all the credit for Bitcoin hitting $93k in the past few days is due to Trump but it's clear his victory has had a positive impact on the market. Because at least for now we can believe that we have the first US president in history to publicly support bitcoin and this will be a huge catalyst. We should not deny this.


You are right, the market is driven by sentiment and people's views, the market is very bullish and believes that Trump is a pro-Bitcoin president. So it is understandable that bitcoin price is increasing.

Since American are not the only people trading or holding bitcoin we cannot truly tag the current bullish conditions on bitcoin to Trump winning,  we still have other issues and news that is creating the current conditions.  We cannot also said only the post halving that is creating the current conditions either, as a lot of factors like breaking out of $73,488 the last high low , halving , interest rate cut, unemployment data from USA and most importantly Trump winning are some of the factors.

Finally kamara winning could have affected the market negatively on a temporary basis.  Remember that this market is driven by sentiment and people views on issues matters, and they views especially on social media has been the driving force of the market changing conditions over time.

I would say that we shouldn't be in a haste to forget that Bitcoin was doing very much good historically even before the election, hence I quite agree with you that the election generally is not the only reason or factor leading the bull run and even if Bitcoin price wouldn't have been this far but it would have made difference from were it was before, even before the election the month of October and November has already been speculated even though there was no guarantee that bitcoin is liable to make a new all time high. Indeed Bitcoin is bullish $100k on the way, it is at $900k as at time am making this post.

last time trump was in he passed a brutal bill that really hurt all crytpo.

it went into effect jan 1 2018. and btc slumped bigly that month.

I say we are going up because no one is going to pass anything until After feb 1.

this means btc will be safe for 70 days.

So why did the post-halving effect come exactly after the US elections was conducted after about 7 months since the halving event. Even if the post-halving also prompted the current surge in the price of bitcoin, majority of the impact was basically as a result of the post-election effects let's just be realistic.

I can also say that the post-halving events and Trump's victory was the cause of the bullish trend we are experiencing now but since it came immediately after the US elections, i would say that Trump's victory played the major roles.


Nothing much would have happened to the price of bitcoin if Kamala Harris had won, it would have only recorded either a sluggish increase or a slow downtrend since Kamala Harris didn't give any emphasis on her stands about cryptocurrencies. 

 One of the factors that affects Bitcoin price if I'm not mistaken is people's sentiment so despite the fact that we experienced the Bitcoin halving this year, I will not accredit the sudden pump in price at present as the effects of the post halving event, if anything, this year was a bit silent, don't know how the other years have been.
 Granted, it's not that we should attribute the success of Bitcoin to Trump's victory in the election because before he won or ever thought to use being in support of Bitcoin as means to get votes, the coin has been thriving but we need to admit that this his victory played a big role up to the extent of experiencing three ATHs in the space of a week.

Who cares what's actually making bitcoin to pump. There is no point arguing or debating what's making bitcoin to pump. The most important thing is that bitcoin is pumping and everyone is happy that's what really matters. Even if Kamala had won the election, bitcoin was designed to pump even though it would have experienced a little delay, but the pump would have been inevitable. So long as bitcoin is winning, whatever that's pumping it should continue doing it.

I think all plays a role in making bitcoin growth so rapid, as a Matter of fact bitcoin growth can be trigger by anything. Emagine if Elon Musk tweet that he will join suit with Michael Saylors microstrategy to invest in bitcoin or buying %5-10 of bitcoin Total supply in regards of making it a new Gold, what do you think will happen to bitcoin? It will surly increase more.

If kamala Harris was elected , I do t think anything will happen to bitcoin growth because she has not said anything positive about bitcoin during her campaign. Meanwhile I don't care if Trump and kamala makes bitcoin increase, all I know is that bitcoin will be fine without them. Afterall during the first campaign of Trump he made some promised in regards to bitcoin and yet he couldn't do anything yet bitcoin increased. Perhaps he never believed in bitcoin after seeing bitcoin so so well now he suddenly develop interest. Let's see how it goes this time around

All I know is that bitcoin will continue creating new ATH with or without some people.

It is expected even before the Election fever is that bitcoin and the whole market will grow Bullying because of the past halving effect in which we have witnessed over how many times now?

this election and winning of President Trump is just added to the flavor and pushes the market to go faster than we expected to happen in December upto early next year .

He is not the sole catalyst for bitcoin's growth but his impact cannot be denied as it is no small thing for a US president to express support for bitcoin. This could even be a historic turning point for bitcoin as well as the crypto industry as the industry’s growth in the next 4 years will largely depend on his policies and regulations.

Besides the impact of halving and Trump, there is another big impact that we should not ignore: ETFs. Large amounts of money are pouring into the market through ETFs and creating demand greater than supply, which will also have a significant impact on the price of bitcoin.

I wasn't very bullish on Harris from the start, she's not very bitcoin friendly and that could be a huge hurdle for the crypto industry if she replaces Trump.

The 4-year cycle is a popular theory, but evidence for it its thin at this moment. We had only two complete 4-year cycles "from a major ATH to the next major ATH": 2013-2017 and 2017-2021.We don't know how long the current cycle will be, so we can't count 2021-25.

If we take lows, we have three "cycles" with durations between 3 and 4 years already, but they don't look that regular: we had major lows in late 2011, early 2015, late 2018 and late 2022. 2011-2015 is a little more than three years, 2015-18 three and a half year (2011 and 18 lows are almost exactly 7 years away), and only 2018-22 is the "traditional" 4 year distance.

In addition we had the interesting phenomenon of the 2019 mid-year rally, getting surprisingly close to the ATH only half a year after the 2018 low, this rally was completely detached from halvings. It's a legit assumption imo that we would have had an ATH much earlier (probably in early to mid 2020, before the halving) if the Covid panic and crash that set in in February/March didn't happen, and subsequently FOMO could have set in earlier.

This doesn't mean that the 4 year cycle is totally unplausible (although I dispute the post-halving rally theory as written in my last post) but we need more time (at least ~5 years more) to confirm it imo. For me, the relative regularity could also have to do with attention cycles and are thus probably more driven by demand fluctuations than by the supply schedule.

People are anticipating flexibility of regulation post trump winning, there's rumour about bitcoin strategic reserve as well, I think it's like chain effect, since trump is winning, it confirmed the bullish sentiment that people are having, therefore the big buying pressure is coming to BTC market and it literally escaped from gold, equity also going up, seems like gold already overbought.

after all, the market is all about the general sentiment, if people are optimistic, BTC will always go bullish.

moreover, current bullrun is just starting, we might see even greater, altcoin season isn't here yet either.

The thing is bitcoin is strongly follows its historical trend more than any other fundamental news or hype surrounding it. Yes the Trump win actually added its  hype and might have been the part of the rapid pump but seriously bitcoin was definitely going to increase in this quarter of the year. Would there be a different move had Kamala win, I would have said yes a little correction might have taken place but the dip wouldn’t be as heavy as the this current pump.

People think like had Kamala won it would have been bad for bitcoin but I say no it wouldn’t have been because bitcoin would’ve still follow its pattern after a few corrections. Take a look at 2020 post halving bitcoin did pumped in the last quater even though it was Biden who is not crypto friendly that won

I have also thought about this as well though, if it was Kamala Harris who won the election, well by now we could had seen bitcoin at the low causing serious panicked in the market. I believe lot of people could had sold out heavily because US would now be an anti-bitcoin zone but this it was on the reverse as Trump did emerged as the winner, though it was his winning which actually propelled the market driving so crazy even though there are other factors.

The stories don't matter at all.  Trump, war, whatever...  Bitcoin is going higher because that's what it has been designed to do.  It goes on a 4-year cycle and no matter how much analysts want to try and prove themselves by calling all the little ups and downs of the market and explaining them, the only thing that matters at the end of the day is the 4-year cycle.  People shouldn't get caught up in trading (of course there are certain events like mtgox that were obvious to trade) and instead just stack sats.  There will always be events happening, but the 4-year cycle cannot be denied and rules all else.

Both and some other factors too like the Spot ETFs that have been traded nowadays and even during the approval, there were good news already.

We will never know.

The "post halving shock"'s incidence is overrated in my opinion.

Miners mine 450 BTC per day. Yesterday over a million BTC were traded on exchanges. It was an extraordinary volume, but normally the volume is well in the six digits (even on weekends mostly over 200k/day).

At the last halving in April 2024, Bitcoin's yearly supply inflation went down from 1,6% to 0,8%.

The incidence of newly mined coins in the market is negligible now. IMO the last halving where miners' subsidy reduction did really make a difference was 2016, when supply inflation went down from 8% to 4%. 8% per year is still a high figure compared to the "money printing" that fiat currencies experience, so before 2016 there was a fairly high available supply by miners which had to be "countered" by new investments. With a 4% inflation Bitcoin entered "fiat territory" in 2016, to then lower gradually.

This means that since 2016, for me Bitcoin is already quite scarce (although scarcity has to take demand into account, so it's scarce if we assume there's static demand) and the subsequent subdidy reductions by halvings do not really make a difference.

Apart from Trump, however, there may be some other factors in play, like the Microsoft decision to ask their shareholders about Bitcoin purchases. But I think the US election is indeed the main driver of the price, at least in the last ten days.

I saw it on the news. You can read it in details https://cointelegraph.com/news/post-halving-supply-shock-drive-bitcoin-prices-higher but you can easily understand it from the title and what I posted.

It is said that the bull run is also as a result of the post-halving effect. In the last halvings, this is truly how bitcoin price were. What do you people think. Is it caused by post halving event or Trump. I think both. If it was Harris that won the election, do you think the price of bitcoin would have been this far?