Topic: Trump isn’t the only ‘story’ driving Bitcoin’s price higher, says exec (Read 391 times)

you can't take out the place of an inductive reasoning from a scenario where news, a whales entry into the bitcoin space, wars and  buys and sell all contribute to driving bitcoin price high or low. the four year cycle is a thing but as much as that is a consideration for bitcoin getting higher, we can't also rule out the effect of trumps victory from the bull we are experiencing.

even though in the build up to this bull, we had anticipated to see bitcoin going up before the end of the year after the bitcoin halving took place and somehow, it could be part of the reason for the current bitcoin price increase, what's more known at the moment as the primary cause is the effect of trumps victory. when bitcoin spot ETF was the reason for bitcoin bull, it was not about the halving or the four year cycle and now that all pointer shows that this is a trump effect, it's not wrong if analyst always mention trump when discussion about bitcoin price increase is being talked about.

I think you misinterpreted my post. I was referring to the short term price spike in November.

For example, the final push through the March 2024 high of 73.6k came just during the night of the US election, when the results got better and better for Trump. It's almost impossible that this was a coincidence.

It is possible that we could have seen also a push towards this ATH in November due to expectations related to the "Q4 pump" we saw during years like 2016, 2017, 2021 and 2023 or the "post-halving pump" from 2016 and 2020, but imo it would have very likely been slower. The 73k resistance would have probably held some weeks more. It is also possible that the price would have taken more time to reach the 65-70k level in October without Trump's pro-crypto rhetoric in combination with the positive tendency for him in opinion polls and on Polymarket in October.

For me it's like you wrote: "his win might have fast-tracked things a bit". My own alternative history crystal ball is that BTC would be fighting with the ATH and perhaps be at 75-78k if Harris won, and price level could have stood even a bit lower (60-65k area, maybe) if there was no election at all because the fact that crypto was mentioned by both candidates' campaigns (although of course much more by Trump's) is quite a novelty and an interesting step towards acceptance of crypto by the political sphere.

For over a year now, people have speculated about the price of Bitcoin based on its halving. Many people have predicted over $100k, while some believed we would see a new ATH but not up to $100k. Some even said it would get to $200k. All these predictions happened even before Trump started his campaign, so now, why does it seem like the price of Bitcoin is something that would never have happened without Trump's win?
I understand that his win might have fast-tracked things a bit, but it would have still happened with or without the win.

trump's effect did a lot to improve the sentiment though, people were hesitant to long BTC before, despite obvious pattern that BTC is making literally reversal when it's about to hit descending channel pattern, then US election comes in and suddenly people become so bullish, I won't discredit both factor, but we can say that both factor plays a big role in helping BTC make this milestone.
not everyday you see BTC just keep going up creating new ATH for many times and the buy pressure is still strong.
people are definitely optimistic toward BTC these days seeing the price action alone.

That is true and people will always try to find a reason why the price went up, they would say anything they could without admitting that bitcoin could go up without a specific reason. I mean the reality is that bitcoin goes up because it does that every 4 years and that's the reason, there isn't really a need for anything else. We don't need ETF's, we do not need Elon, we do not need Kamala, none of those could happened and we would still be high, the price could change but the momentum wouldn't.

Sure, maybe we would be less than 93k at all time high, or maybe we would have been higher, I don't really know but that doesn't mean that we are going to end up with a greater change on momentum, it would have been still up and that is how you are going to get better. If people keep thinking that we are going to increase then we are going to see a greater results since people who believe that will end up thinking how great they could do and buy, and when they buy, the price goes up.

I remember the halving that happened four years ago, many people speculated that Elon Musk was the mastermind behind the increase in the price of Bitcoin and also Doge, although that is true but not all of it is the result of the current surge in Bitcoin from Elon's actions, Doge could be but not for Bitcoin, I think this story is almost the same, almost the whole world is speculating on the current surge in Bitcoin being caused or Trump's victory, actually if you look closely and study it in detail, Trump hasn't done anything, just talked publicly about crypto.

In essence, anyone who speculates about the current price of Bitcoin and Trump, if they speculate that Trump is not the cause, I agree, Generally Americans are jumping into the world of crypto, they are driving up the current price of Bitcoin with massive purchases taking place in the US, Trump is a promoter of belief, not the main role.

Yes, both could be possible reasons why bitcoin price is very bullish at the moment. However, we could not also ignore other key factors that have unlocked the bullish season for bitcoin. First is, the increasing institutional adoption for bitcoin. Companies like Tesla, MicroStrategy and Grayscale have been added to the major institutions that have decided to adopt bitcoin. And because of this, it boosted public awareness that eventually convinced the people to trust and invest in bitcoin.

Next is, the favorable regulatory developments for bitcoin. Most especially that Trump is on our side now, it won’t be surprising anymore that there will be more promotion and development for bitcoin in the next years ahead.

Or if we look at the big picture, the US stock market. Before the election, according to some surveys, the stock market also expected Trump to win because they also believed that he would bring more good things to the market. As a result, not only Bitcoin but the entire US stock market such as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones rose following the news of Trump's victory. It is clear that Trump's victory has had a positive impact on the entire stock market, not just bitcoin. So I also believe that the recent surge in Bitcoin price has more to do with Trump's victory than the impact of the halving.

Traders buy AND sell. Miners only sell. Buying and selling the same bitcoin increases the volume but doesn't increase demand.

The post-halving effect on the price of Bitcoin is small.
The Trump winning had the most effect towards the price of Bitcoin right now.

Both had the effects - particularly positive effects, but Trump winning the US election had the most effect to where the price of Bitcoin is right now. I think we already knew that Trump's winning will be a catalyst towards the bull run and the price of Bitcoin going up massively, and that's what we saw a few weeks after the election. If Harris won the election, I believe the effect would be positive towards Bitcoin. The sentiments of the investors heavily affect the price of cryptocurrencies, and if she won, the sentiment will be negative thus, prices of all coins including Bitcoin will go down temporarily.

TBH, Trump's winning is what I think will be the only catalyst towards the bull market and it's good that he won. Just imagine many are expecting for the bull run to happen, but because Harris won, it didn't happen. We could've seen the price of Bitcoin at the $60,000 range right now.

Agreed! However, we can observe and we can certainly say that the Donald Trump's victory on the election was the biggest cause of the present pump after the halving. There will be many people who hate Trump who will say that this pump is not because of the optimism of him being the next president has brought to the cryptospace. The super woke pink hair democrats in the forum can reject it if that is their decision, but this is certainly the Trump pump

Rather than post-halving, wouldn't it just be the result of the market going so high that sellers who wanted to sell couldn't sell because, well, the market continued going up? This also introduced a lot of other investors who wanted to enter the market immediately since the market was pumping. So it's kind of like the action before pushing another narrative to push the market. I guess you could still reason it's the election though since it's still the leading cause, but definitely think the halving doesn't have that much of a power now compared to the past. Or even if it had, we'd usually see it by next year instead no?

And no, if Kamala won I reckon we'd just see the same market we've seen for the past couple of months.

I think something, if it is known that even the blindest person realized that Donald Trump activated the market, why do they insist so much on taking away that merit? Why? What do they gain? The most important thing is that the price is high, and it is very obvious that with Kamala Harris we would be seeing a huge drop in BTC, so I understand that there are many people in the USA who are still crying because their candidate did not win, but it is time to accept that things happen for a reason, and if this was the Trump effect, then let it continue because everything looks very good, no way, when he takes office it will surely be another ATH.

I think they are wrong for thinking that Trump wins is not the main reason why the market has being this bullish. If Kamala had won, I do not think the price of Bitcoin will be this high right now and it is still thinking about moving higher from the movement of the market. Trump wins triggered the whole market and it is not only Bitcoin benefiting but altcoins are also getting a share of the money coming into the market. Trump wins is the main story that is making others to think about investing in Bitcoin. There are other factors contributing but we can not make trump's win to be like a small impact. When the president and the vice with some other important figures in power working together for a better future, the market will just have to be green.

I think, this is what happened, everyone was expecting that Trump's win would positively affect the Bitcoin's price. Yes, we know deep in our heart that what he was saying wasn't actually good for Bitcoin and it was all populist but, it was populist and it would work, that's why many people were making bets on positive crypto price if Trump was about to win. I think that majority of traders were waiting for the result of US presidential elections. Since their bet was on green light to Bitcoin in case Trump wins, we saw a huge jump in Bitcoin's price. This doesn't mean that Bitcoin wouldn't rise if Kamala Harris has won, no, it would rise but not today and not with such a speed. Trump's victory was an accelerator to Bitcoin's price increase, that's all. With or without Trump or Kamala Harris, Bitcoin would rise again because the halving has happened and the demand increases, so it was inevitable anyway.

I think this is enough to end the debate. The price of bitcoin immediately spiked after it became obvious that Donald Trump was winning the election and due to his promising pre-election speeches about bitcoin made a lot of investors started buying bitcoin when the news of Trump's winning became viral. Before the election, on 4th of November, the price was around $68k. On getting to the election date (5th November), the price skyrocket to $93k that's the current ATH. So these rapid movement after the election was conducted is as a result of the impact of the party that won the election and not any post-halving effect.

Common, give the US what it deserves, the price spiked exactly after the elections, and Doge went up exactly after the announcement, remember how the ETF approval triggered the last bull run?  Actually, do you think that if it weren't for the good news coming from the US Bitocin would still magically increase in price with nothing to trigger that run? It will just go up like that every 4 years no matter what happens in the world? Nuclear war or an asteroid impact or global recession BTC will go up no matter what?

Every single penny we see now over the 60k mark is because of the results in the US election, you might now like it but this is reality, all we see now is hope that the biggest economy in the world and the financial center of it will turn more positive to crypto.

Well, it's almost every time after halving, so it snot really a "news", we knew this but Americans don't really know it. They have this American grand ego, where they think everything must be about them, like how all the alien movies where aliens arrive to New York or something lol. I am not saying Trump had nothing to do with it, of course he played a big role, of course, but mainly for timing, if there were absolutely no American elections this year, the price would still go up, every four years it does, it doesn't matter if a republican wins or a democrat wins, it always goes up.

So, we just need to realize that four year cycle is something that happens after halving every time, and we are seeing the impact of that, with a bit of nudge from trump of course.

We have had 2 bull runs this year and I don't see much connection to the halving. We had a bull run in March before the halving and the main catalyst was the approval of bitcoin ETFs, and had almost nothing to do with the halving. I remember that from the halving to the election day, Bitcoin had almost no significant growth, and Bitcoin even stagnated and moved sideways uncomfortably, making people feel depressed. But the market started to get volatile as election day approached, and the second bull run immediately happened on election day and things got crazier when the media confirmed Trump's victory.

Furthermore, if we look at the overall picture of the US financial markets, all of them grew very well after the news of Trump's victory, not just bitcoin. Yes, we need to accept the fact that Trump is the one who has driven the recent bull run.

The post-halving effect would not have been a sudden pump, it's not like out of the blue suddenly the demand increased 50% to totally outstrip the supply, and furthermore, if we look at the roice on a yoy time frame the daily coins issuance in $ is still 30% despite the block halving.
Also, side note, I did not expect this from Cointelegraph:

This is wrong, the halving cut the reward, it didn't affect the difficulty, you can have a halving and a difficulty decrease making blocks "easier" to solve, if the author is trying to explain price movement but can grasp the basics then his whole theory is doomed to fail.

I call bullshit.  What we have a president that previously attacked bitcoin with his like kind changes in 2018. We have a president known to lie and lie and lie.

We have a president that lawsuits are a way of life for him. And millions of morons that believe he is better for BTC when all of BTC's highs came under Joe Biden.

Like I wrote before BTC will do fine for the next 2 months then reality sets in Trump gets his powers back and we get to see what he will really do.

BTW maybe it will be good. USA has had a lot of issues for a lot of years so this certainly will be interesting I am looking forward to find out  what he does.

It's obvious that this recent spike is due to Trump winning the election as he is supposedly a pro-Bitcoin US president. My take is the post halving effect is that we should have felt it even before the election, maybe around September the price could be in a bull run but it's not. However, we have to take into account the pre-halving, we already have a new all time high.

So it's really change the cycle as this is the first time that we have seen it. But then again, in every bull run, there is some sort of catalyst besides the halving, and so in this cycle, it's Trump winning the election. And it could be bigger next year when he officially sits in the White House in January. With that, we should accept the fact that it was really Trump who drives this bull run and into a new all time high in 2025.

I wonder, assuming Harris wins and the market dumps, what would those who deny Trump's victory is positively impacting Bitcoin say? Do they blame Harris or will they say that the bitcoin price correction has been going on for months and is not over yet, and not because Harris was elected?

I'm not saying all the credit for Bitcoin hitting $93k in the past few days is due to Trump but it's clear his victory has had a positive impact on the market. Because at least for now we can believe that we have the first US president in history to publicly support bitcoin and this will be a huge catalyst. We should not deny this.


You are right, the market is driven by sentiment and people's views, the market is very bullish and believes that Trump is a pro-Bitcoin president. So it is understandable that bitcoin price is increasing.

Since American are not the only people trading or holding bitcoin we cannot truly tag the current bullish conditions on bitcoin to Trump winning,  we still have other issues and news that is creating the current conditions.  We cannot also said only the post halving that is creating the current conditions either, as a lot of factors like breaking out of $73,488 the last high low , halving , interest rate cut, unemployment data from USA and most importantly Trump winning are some of the factors.

Finally kamara winning could have affected the market negatively on a temporary basis.  Remember that this market is driven by sentiment and people views on issues matters, and they views especially on social media has been the driving force of the market changing conditions over time.

I would say that we shouldn't be in a haste to forget that Bitcoin was doing very much good historically even before the election, hence I quite agree with you that the election generally is not the only reason or factor leading the bull run and even if Bitcoin price wouldn't have been this far but it would have made difference from were it was before, even before the election the month of October and November has already been speculated even though there was no guarantee that bitcoin is liable to make a new all time high. Indeed Bitcoin is bullish $100k on the way, it is at $900k as at time am making this post.

last time trump was in he passed a brutal bill that really hurt all crytpo.

it went into effect jan 1 2018. and btc slumped bigly that month.

I say we are going up because no one is going to pass anything until After feb 1.

this means btc will be safe for 70 days.

So why did the post-halving effect come exactly after the US elections was conducted after about 7 months since the halving event. Even if the post-halving also prompted the current surge in the price of bitcoin, majority of the impact was basically as a result of the post-election effects let's just be realistic.

I can also say that the post-halving events and Trump's victory was the cause of the bullish trend we are experiencing now but since it came immediately after the US elections, i would say that Trump's victory played the major roles.


Nothing much would have happened to the price of bitcoin if Kamala Harris had won, it would have only recorded either a sluggish increase or a slow downtrend since Kamala Harris didn't give any emphasis on her stands about cryptocurrencies. 

 One of the factors that affects Bitcoin price if I'm not mistaken is people's sentiment so despite the fact that we experienced the Bitcoin halving this year, I will not accredit the sudden pump in price at present as the effects of the post halving event, if anything, this year was a bit silent, don't know how the other years have been.
 Granted, it's not that we should attribute the success of Bitcoin to Trump's victory in the election because before he won or ever thought to use being in support of Bitcoin as means to get votes, the coin has been thriving but we need to admit that this his victory played a big role up to the extent of experiencing three ATHs in the space of a week.

Who cares what's actually making bitcoin to pump. There is no point arguing or debating what's making bitcoin to pump. The most important thing is that bitcoin is pumping and everyone is happy that's what really matters. Even if Kamala had won the election, bitcoin was designed to pump even though it would have experienced a little delay, but the pump would have been inevitable. So long as bitcoin is winning, whatever that's pumping it should continue doing it.

I think all plays a role in making bitcoin growth so rapid, as a Matter of fact bitcoin growth can be trigger by anything. Emagine if Elon Musk tweet that he will join suit with Michael Saylors microstrategy to invest in bitcoin or buying %5-10 of bitcoin Total supply in regards of making it a new Gold, what do you think will happen to bitcoin? It will surly increase more.

If kamala Harris was elected , I do t think anything will happen to bitcoin growth because she has not said anything positive about bitcoin during her campaign. Meanwhile I don't care if Trump and kamala makes bitcoin increase, all I know is that bitcoin will be fine without them. Afterall during the first campaign of Trump he made some promised in regards to bitcoin and yet he couldn't do anything yet bitcoin increased. Perhaps he never believed in bitcoin after seeing bitcoin so so well now he suddenly develop interest. Let's see how it goes this time around

All I know is that bitcoin will continue creating new ATH with or without some people.

It is expected even before the Election fever is that bitcoin and the whole market will grow Bullying because of the past halving effect in which we have witnessed over how many times now?

this election and winning of President Trump is just added to the flavor and pushes the market to go faster than we expected to happen in December upto early next year .

He is not the sole catalyst for bitcoin's growth but his impact cannot be denied as it is no small thing for a US president to express support for bitcoin. This could even be a historic turning point for bitcoin as well as the crypto industry as the industry’s growth in the next 4 years will largely depend on his policies and regulations.

Besides the impact of halving and Trump, there is another big impact that we should not ignore: ETFs. Large amounts of money are pouring into the market through ETFs and creating demand greater than supply, which will also have a significant impact on the price of bitcoin.

I wasn't very bullish on Harris from the start, she's not very bitcoin friendly and that could be a huge hurdle for the crypto industry if she replaces Trump.

The 4-year cycle is a popular theory, but evidence for it its thin at this moment. We had only two complete 4-year cycles "from a major ATH to the next major ATH": 2013-2017 and 2017-2021.We don't know how long the current cycle will be, so we can't count 2021-25.

If we take lows, we have three "cycles" with durations between 3 and 4 years already, but they don't look that regular: we had major lows in late 2011, early 2015, late 2018 and late 2022. 2011-2015 is a little more than three years, 2015-18 three and a half year (2011 and 18 lows are almost exactly 7 years away), and only 2018-22 is the "traditional" 4 year distance.

In addition we had the interesting phenomenon of the 2019 mid-year rally, getting surprisingly close to the ATH only half a year after the 2018 low, this rally was completely detached from halvings. It's a legit assumption imo that we would have had an ATH much earlier (probably in early to mid 2020, before the halving) if the Covid panic and crash that set in in February/March didn't happen, and subsequently FOMO could have set in earlier.

This doesn't mean that the 4 year cycle is totally unplausible (although I dispute the post-halving rally theory as written in my last post) but we need more time (at least ~5 years more) to confirm it imo. For me, the relative regularity could also have to do with attention cycles and are thus probably more driven by demand fluctuations than by the supply schedule.

People are anticipating flexibility of regulation post trump winning, there's rumour about bitcoin strategic reserve as well, I think it's like chain effect, since trump is winning, it confirmed the bullish sentiment that people are having, therefore the big buying pressure is coming to BTC market and it literally escaped from gold, equity also going up, seems like gold already overbought.

after all, the market is all about the general sentiment, if people are optimistic, BTC will always go bullish.

moreover, current bullrun is just starting, we might see even greater, altcoin season isn't here yet either.

The thing is bitcoin is strongly follows its historical trend more than any other fundamental news or hype surrounding it. Yes the Trump win actually added its  hype and might have been the part of the rapid pump but seriously bitcoin was definitely going to increase in this quarter of the year. Would there be a different move had Kamala win, I would have said yes a little correction might have taken place but the dip wouldn’t be as heavy as the this current pump.

People think like had Kamala won it would have been bad for bitcoin but I say no it wouldn’t have been because bitcoin would’ve still follow its pattern after a few corrections. Take a look at 2020 post halving bitcoin did pumped in the last quater even though it was Biden who is not crypto friendly that won

I have also thought about this as well though, if it was Kamala Harris who won the election, well by now we could had seen bitcoin at the low causing serious panicked in the market. I believe lot of people could had sold out heavily because US would now be an anti-bitcoin zone but this it was on the reverse as Trump did emerged as the winner, though it was his winning which actually propelled the market driving so crazy even though there are other factors.

The stories don't matter at all.  Trump, war, whatever...  Bitcoin is going higher because that's what it has been designed to do.  It goes on a 4-year cycle and no matter how much analysts want to try and prove themselves by calling all the little ups and downs of the market and explaining them, the only thing that matters at the end of the day is the 4-year cycle.  People shouldn't get caught up in trading (of course there are certain events like mtgox that were obvious to trade) and instead just stack sats.  There will always be events happening, but the 4-year cycle cannot be denied and rules all else.

Both and some other factors too like the Spot ETFs that have been traded nowadays and even during the approval, there were good news already.

We will never know.

The "post halving shock"'s incidence is overrated in my opinion.

Miners mine 450 BTC per day. Yesterday over a million BTC were traded on exchanges. It was an extraordinary volume, but normally the volume is well in the six digits (even on weekends mostly over 200k/day).

At the last halving in April 2024, Bitcoin's yearly supply inflation went down from 1,6% to 0,8%.

The incidence of newly mined coins in the market is negligible now. IMO the last halving where miners' subsidy reduction did really make a difference was 2016, when supply inflation went down from 8% to 4%. 8% per year is still a high figure compared to the "money printing" that fiat currencies experience, so before 2016 there was a fairly high available supply by miners which had to be "countered" by new investments. With a 4% inflation Bitcoin entered "fiat territory" in 2016, to then lower gradually.

This means that since 2016, for me Bitcoin is already quite scarce (although scarcity has to take demand into account, so it's scarce if we assume there's static demand) and the subsequent subdidy reductions by halvings do not really make a difference.

Apart from Trump, however, there may be some other factors in play, like the Microsoft decision to ask their shareholders about Bitcoin purchases. But I think the US election is indeed the main driver of the price, at least in the last ten days.

I saw it on the news. You can read it in details https://cointelegraph.com/news/post-halving-supply-shock-drive-bitcoin-prices-higher but you can easily understand it from the title and what I posted.

It is said that the bull run is also as a result of the post-halving effect. In the last halvings, this is truly how bitcoin price were. What do you people think. Is it caused by post halving event or Trump. I think both. If it was Harris that won the election, do you think the price of bitcoin would have been this far?