To add to this post, Fox News released a poll recently and it's shedding light on American's perceptions of the country after coronavirus. It is devastating for the Trump team, to say the least -
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-more-trusted-on-coronavirus-trump-on-economySummary of poll conducted of registered voters -
- 88% are concerned about coronavirus spending.
- 78% are worried about the economy.
- An 11% drop in positive perception of the economy with 58% viewing the economy poorly.
- Biden leads Trump 48% to 40% in a General Election match up among registered voters
- Trump is losing in job approval ratings with independents by 26%. (60-34)
- Trump leads men by 8 points but loses women by 25% in job approval ratings
- Biden leads in independents 40-27% in a general election match up
The economy needs to recover for Trump to have a realistic shot at reelection. Prior to coronavirus, I think most Americans were okay with Trump antics because the U.S. economy, stock market, jobs numbers, ect. were doing great. Now that the economy is sunk, what's Trump's reelection message? I don't think the Trump campaign has much on defense and will most likely need to get by on attacking Joe Biden instead of defending their own record. Trump's economic policy was great prior to the virus, but it's hard to make the case to voters to look at the past. Democrats have clear lines of attack against the economy, Trump's coronavirus response, and maybe general corruption allegations so their strategy is already set in place. I just don't think Biden is the guy to deliver on these attacks.
100% the economy has to recover and be booming again for Trump to have a shot at reelection. That was his way of convincing moderates who may not have liked his rhetoric, that he was a good choice to be elected and now reelected. That was the great group of people known as the 401k votes (who are probably still pretty happy right now tbh)
Trump also needs to show old people that he's doing a good job on his Coronavirus response. Poll numbers show that they REALLY haven't been happy with the response. They're the ones that are most at risk of dying, and they're the ones that vote the most, if you lose that BLOC you lose the election.
Trump is in an interesting time that I don't think many could have pulled themself out of. All of these are outside forces (regarding corona, economy, etc) that would bring any administration and reelection bid to its knees.
Though as I've said time and time again, we have a LONG time until November and we have debates to look forward too. Presidential elections aren't decided by sheer pop vote, they're decided by the EC. If Trump plays the EC right, then he could win the EC by not much but lose the pop vote by more then he did last time.
Only time will tell.
