Topic: TRUMPS INAUGURATION AND POSSIBLE PRICING IN OF BITCOIN. (Read 133 times)

Didn't you notice Bitcoin price usually getting higher before every FOMC meeting? then it's depend on Jerome Powell, if he speak good about Bitcoin, the price will continue to rise and vice versa.

But, I think the price will keep rising because there are many positive news especially many states and countries have thinking to add Bitcoin as their strategic reserve. Bitcoin will break new ATH in this month.

It is kind of far fetched to think the proposed Bitcoin Reserve is what facilitated his victory.  I honestly strongly believe it contributed to such a small percentage of his victory that it is not one of THE reasons he won.

Now for the Price Bitcoin currently is worth.  Have you ever seen a Bitcoin rally and how it looks like? It does not look like it has priced in at all.  More over, it looks like a great thing whether it is priced in or not.  Think of it this way,

If Bitcoin has priced in already, it means it is much less volatile than it used to be and the rally is so smooth and normal we do not even notice any more.  Though this comes with a caveat.  If it priced in already, then the percent it increases by every cycle is becoming so low it may not be profitable for Miners to continue their operations.  In that situation, you have to worry about way more than whether a rally is due or not.

If it has not priced in already then the upcoming Bitcoin rally will likely be an incredible ride.  We are past 100 Thousand Dollars a Bitcoin.  These are insane numbers.

Earlier this month, I thought Trump's inauguration or the few days surrounding it would be sell the news. It seems it won't be the case. As the inauguration day draws nearer, the market grows more bullish. Around 5 days ago, the price even fell below $90,000. A few days later, it suddenly bounced back to $106,000.

Apparently, a lot are in store for the Bitcoin market in the next days, weeks, and months. That's obvious. Along with the sudden rise in Bitcoin's price, Polymarket's odds of the US creating a national Bitcoin reserve also soared to 70%. There must be some truth in the rumor that Trump will be signing an executive order declaring crypto as a matter of national priority. And then the number of states where a Bitcoin strategic reserve proposal is filed has also ballooned to at least 15.

People who are too anxious to wait for a minute longer and thinks that the current price is the highest price that can be reached. Of course all we can do is predict and assume. These people who sold earlier just got it wrong.
If basically what you are asking is whether bitcoin has already reached its ATH then my opinion is no. We have seen this many times before where people start to doubt whether there will be new ATH after bitcoin doesn’t seem to be rising even when an important event comes close but time and time again it has proven that it never fails to deliver.

even if it's already priced in people will be more focused on what regulation and how trump's plan about bitcoin gonna play out, I mean everyone already now trump inauguration is incoming so it's not a new news so yeah I expect bitcoin already priced in but what's matter is what trump gonna do toward bitcoin in this year that'd be the one that determine whether there will be fast move in bitcoin and if it happens that there's positive news, BTC is ready for another ATH.

I think that's more important right now than being too fixated with this. but tbh i see no significant move from BTC this past days except occasional sideways which is pretty much expected by anyone.

In the world of crypto, everything is possible. Maybe it's priced already. Maybe it still isn't and there's still an upside to it.

As for the whales, I don't think they need to hide their intention to sell when they feel that Bitcoin has peaked already. The current resistance is at the $108,000, and I will not be surprised if they will sell at that price again. Who's selling? I can only think of 2 types of sellers right now. Those who bought during the 2022 bear market and selling their assets right now for profit, or those who're only buying Bitcoin for the short term, and they're contented with the profits that they got hence, selling it.

What I believe is that, when we surpass the $108,000 which is the resistance, Bitcoin's price will continue to go up from there.

OP, it seems that this constant "propaganda" is necessary that any effect on price is due to DT, it is not the whole, it is a part, and for now it is only an influence on the price effect, not on its value, or confidence, that said, the DT effect will pass, bitcoin will move on.

even when you are strictly a long-term investor, it is usually hard not to get involved in sentiment as this since this current bull has long been associated with trump more than the usual economic concept of bitcoin cycle that is playing its own rule in what we are currently seeing now and yet a lot of speculators are not basing their analysis from that point of view. for us that are investing for the long term, the price increase is just an added validation that tells that one is on track with regard our investment and even though the bull is already telling on our holding for better at the moment, it is still not enough reason to sell yet. like the buildup to the inauguration has caused this bull, there are chances that after the inauguration, some short-term investors will normally want to take out their profit which might lead to a likely correction but in the end, if he finally implements an order that is bullsih on bitcoin, that will cause another rise that will see bitcoin going to the range of $200k upwards.

We've seen so many "this will change everything" times in crypto. Big claims don't always come true, and the cycle keeps going. That's great for whales. That's delicious for whales. Someone had to buy all those coins, right? That's why they sold high during the bull run. They may be just hanging out now, waiting to see if new rules or a rush of investors make them want to make another move. It's mental tension for people. There is excitement about reserves, anger over the steady rise and fall, and confusion when the price doesn't respond to "major" news. That's how the market makes us feel. Don't think of us as robots. We might not even care what Trump says or doesn't say on inauguration day if we look at the basics, like how many people are using networks, how open the market is, and how willing people are to hold for the long term

We're still interested. We can tell when the whales are going to wake up and change the market. It could be after the inauguration, next month, or never. That's the strange thing about Bitcoin: it's both a global product and an emotional roller coaster. These waves of thought can control what we do if we're not careful. If we keep thinking, the hype will turn into facts instead of drama

I don't see a reason on why this should be a concern, since we can't have the market price fixed in one place, but through its volatility there comes the demand for buying and selling, we already have the bear which dip the market to $89,000 before it now comes above $105,000 and I don't know what else do we want from it than the same pattern it has been using to make everyone have a better entry and exit points respectively, maybe a day to the swearing-in or the same day and at worse after the occasion, we may still have some more highs to set the record new.

Firstly Thanks for the topic I'm curious too as there's been a lot of news & speculations for Bitcoin to hit a new Peak I would love to see it on 111.11k haha.

But as we can see market is already at 105k and now seems like we are getting on the radar of being punished by the market, as everyone is greedy and bullish that Bitcoin is going to hit big and hard soon but it might crash from there on the same day, causing an unexpected turn. My Observational analysis says we are in a good bus to ride till a new ATH but the sixth sense is calling a danger moment going to happen anytime soon and we might get trapped in that range from peak to 87.9k for several weeks or even months.

Where you're wrong is that's not erratic what so ever for bitcoin, nor did it ever hit 110.  was like 107ish and we are at what, 104.. Take a look at popular stocks, like Nvidia, it's up and down 4-5 daily often.  (it's overhyped with "AI" propaganda , since AI doesnt exist, or AGI, to be technically exact.

Trump is also not real bright.  Just a fact.  That exchange he's opening, DeFi exchange.. that's an on and off ramp for pure scams.  He doesn't know what a crypto wallet is (let along the diff types of wallets) and his crypto czar is a venture capitalist with NO programming or cryptography background what so ever. 

That said doesn't mean good things aren't still coming, but take anything and everything he says with a very large grain of salt.  What more could he do to make btc go up really?

Whatever the impact after Trump wins the election or whatever narrative they are trying to convey for now. I agree more with the previous process where we see bitcoin has a four-year cycle and maybe that narrative is much more likely to produce a new ATH, it's just that the timing coincides with the election process that is happening in the US so that a narrative is built that has a positive impact on the journey of bitcoin, even though without this we would still see ATH every time the period has been reached as before.

The only thing that makes this better is because Trump considers the bitcoin reserve a strategic step that can be taken so that there is confidence for some people to create a narrative about the possibilities that will occur. That should be good but to what extent can this realization be achieved on his journey because if not it is just a sweet promise that he is trying to express.

People who has the fund and the courage to play with the Bitcoin market often times create a strategic selling in order to make more profit.  If you are asking who are selling in time of the bull run, it is obvious that people are taking profit.  For example, when Bitcoin reaches $100k+, traders who bought Bitcoin at lower price is surely selling to take profit.  Sometimes there are instances where huge holder of Bitcoin make strategic sales in order to pull down the price of Bitcoin and later on buy at a lower price to either bag a profit or bag more Bitcoins.

About the inauguration of Trump and its effect on Bitcoin, I believe Trump had been one of the icons of Bitcoin since he is so open in supporting Bitcoins and his inauguration will surely give hype to the Bitcoin market.  We have already experience an increase of Bitcoin price while the inauguration of Trump is getting closer.

I think Bitcoin's price might already reflect market expectations for Trump's policies. We've seen less volatility than expected, suggesting whales are holding or strategically selling. The real impact might show post-inauguration, depending on actual policy moves. Let's see how it unfolds.

I was just thinking about that with today's price rise. That the price is rising in anticipation of Trump taking office, and that on Monday, even if he signs an executive order to buy bitcoin, the price will fall with the 'sell the news' effect. For those of us who invest for the long term, swings like these should be of little concern to us. I look at where the price is going to be at the end of 2025 and the end of 2035, among other dates. The short-termism of what happens today and Monday entertains me but doesn't affect me.

bitcoin by its very protocol has a 4 year cycle.. so dont blame everything on US elections.. bitcoin has its own economics

after each halving is a revaluation of the speculative window whereby along with other metrics of mining costs the markets move and cause a ATH

at the moment using world costing of mining, the cheapest being $60k where no one can obtain bitcoin for less so no one wants to sell for less if the market dipped
and premium being $350k where who would dare buy for more if everyone on planet could mine for less.

so the market speculates within this value/premium window (which grows over time)

the ATH season is usually the next calendar year after a halving. so please dont bring trump into it as being the reason for reaching a new peak this year

...
now to answer your questions

no the market is not priced in for the ATH. $110k is not the ATH for this cycle.. we are yet to have the ATH, the ride has not run, the show has not begun, buy your tickets before they run out and enjoy the ride

the inauguration may cause 1-2day of drama that translates to price movement, but is not an impact factor of a multi-month bull leading to ATH.. but it does mean expect maybe some price movements this weekend to midnext week. .. but thats just normal drama

when everyone is buying who is selling?: well anyone thats in profit.. and also people just arbitraging their same stash by riding the different market order books to rinse the opportunities
in short if you sell btc for usd, you then buy altcoin with usd, then sell altcoin for btc and repeat) meaning each sell does not need to be a new persons stash but the same whale repeat selling via arbitrage
but in the same game.. whales can also buy bitcoin via usd, then sell btc to altcoin, then sell altcoin for usd, then use usd to buy back into btc
sell pressure to keep price down/lower price: [BTC->USD][USD->ALT][ALT->BTC]
buy pressure to keep the price up/raise price: [BTC->ALT][ALT->USD][USD->BTC]

He did not hide his intention months ago, so it is possibly that Buy the rumors, sell the news. Like Bitcoin Spot ETF rumors has its effects months before mass approvals in January 2024. After that, Bitcoin did not rise too much, like sell the news effect.

You can expect the same thing with Trump Inauguration day and its effect on Bitcoin price.

I see bright future for Bitcoin, but I don't count that day too much important on Bitcoin price in short term.

Since ever Donald Trump won the US presidential election,  it's been a whole long ride for the bitcoin market especially with the fact that much earlier he did mentioned the fact that he was going  to have a bitcoin reserve for the US government, one of which facilitated his victory.

My concern is this, few days to the inauguration which is suppoto be on the 20th of January 2025 and the bitcoin market has been so erratic with ranging moves around $90k and $110k meanwhile it is supposed that by now we should be seeing some good moves fueled by the much speculations around it, could  it be that Bitcoin has been Priced in Already?

I feel the whales has got something under there sleeves which may playouts later on, I have wondered during the bull run when everyone has been buying? Who's selling at that point? And now seeing the ranges I can only suspect a priced in market so the anticipated fast move may not be happening any sooner again,  what are your taughts?, lets discuss.

I may lock this thread after some substantial contributions  thanks.