Topic: Trying to identify the bottom.. (Read 490 times)

The market only experienced a little bounce today but it is back down there gradually making for down below $20k. This is a bear market and alot of panic is pushing the price further down.  No certainty in the market now everyone is careful not to make regrettable mistake. Hodling is considered alot profitable incase there is a spontaneous recovery.

Hopefully yesterday was the lowest record we've ever experienced, I don't want to see bitcoin price drop below $20k, there will be a lot of panic from users and make prices continue to fall, today the market is green again and up more than 3%, hopefully it continues to rise and the bottom price for now is $20400.

Of course we can't expect everyone to be in the same position in the market today as concerns about bigger losses between swords are clearly becoming inevitable. Those worries have caused panic and also set the market on fire so far. However I never think of the current market conditions as something very negative because of course this is another opportunity that we should consider good for long term investment.

 I dont disagree as statistics are approximate, confusing thing is we can have a recession or negative GDP change yet the monetary base will continue to expand.   BTC doesnt have to follow one particular economy but mostly we track western type economies due to dollar dominance.   We all know there is massive over supply of dollar mostly in the future promissory or bonds, if that Bond market unwinds (ECB, BOJ etc.) that is the end game and I dont see BTC does badly compared to dollar excessive supply.  
  This is a tree shake, not everyone can hold on its typical in any commodity type market which is how I view BTC.    If ultimately dollar resolves to lower values every year and we've no reason to doubt that trend then BTC likely just reaches a low somewhere in its 4 year range of prices which people dont like but its not out of the blue that price will retract harshly.

Today is FED day, we get news in couple hours.  Check back then maybe something changes or not really because its already supposed to be 'telegraphed' or a known course.   Without easy money the tide goes out, it looks bare and the price is far lower at this low tide but I dont yet see anything to be very negative on.  If anything I kinda hope for overreaction in pricing because that can be a good trade but its more healthy when people can recognize BTC is not dictated by big banks, their hands are tied to the giant blocks of debt they carry but BTC can achieve whatever course it finds with the highest utility and value.

Those who bought bitcoin a few hours ago were able to get a price of around $20k, and now the price of bitcoin has gone up to around $21k, maybe $20k price is a bottom, but we still have a chance to buy soon before the bitcoin price is more expensive, I sure tomorrow or the day after the price will be back to $ 25k.

I definitely agree that drops are fine, and there isn't anything that would be valuable at all, it will be profitable, but not worthy of it at all. If it drops to 10k, that would be great for us because we would be able to buy from that level and later on sell for 100k when that happens and make 10x, that is great and I agree with that part. But that means many of the things we worked hard to achieve in the crypto community would be gone, and I do not support that at all.

I believe that we should be focusing on getting better and higher at all times and make a profit like that, which would make a lot more sense to me to be fair because we would both earn money but also develop further.

It seems that the price of bitcoin can indeed be at $18k-$19k, especially if people panic about the situation that makes the price drop suddenly. If the price goes down to $19k again and some people are selling their bitcoins instantaneously, that will make people panic even more and push the price to keep going down. But if it does go down to $13k or even goes below $10k, it's a once in a lifetime opportunity that we can and should use to buy bitcoins and I agree with @Wilhelm. But honestly, I wouldn't expect the price to drop below $15k and I hope that doesn't happen.

I think that is a real possibility that everyone is thinking about. A slight break towards 19,000 USD or so would be one thing, but as things stand it could look very gloomy.

In theory the 19-20,000 USD area should act as strong support because many people place buy orders in that area due to the historical pattern of bitcoin, which has never clearly and for a long time pierced the previous cycle high.


I doubt it, for me the strong support is around 19-20 but if we go below 19.000 USD I think it will trigger a selling panic.

Miners combined make a tiny portion of the trading volume that btc has, the selling pressure caused by miners is not that strong anymore.

Also i would not say that most miners are mining at a loss, it is more likely the other way around, proof is, difficulty keeps hitting a new ATH every month despite the 70% price drop, large corporate miners in the U.S have access to very cheap power and access to a lot of money, they are unlikely going to stop, it is the small miners who bought overpriced gears and mine at 15 cents per kWh that are getting screwed in this mess.

I think it's the miners trying to stay afloat by selling their coins to pay rent and power. The most are mining at a loss as far as I know.

And yes companies holding crypto will sell it to lower their high-risk assets.

I believe we will see major buying if we go below $19k. Once in a lifetime opportunity for anyone late in the game.

A few days the bitcoin price continued to correct, even I was worried that if the bitcoin price dropped below $20k it would continue to fall below $10k, there are no major factors that affect the market, but many say that inflation in the USA and Europe is the cause of people selling assets including cryptocurrencies, and many experts believe there will still be a correction in the near future.

The drop happened faster than i thought, so I am inclined to believe the recovery may take a bit longer, it is important to admit to the fact that the end of a bear market is not just a price target we hit and bounce of off, the sideways that can take months is even more difficult to watch.

As mentioned above by Welsh, we can not ignore the general macro, we could break below levels that we did not break below before, but then for someone who is trying to invest in bitcoin, what would it take for you to buy? It is not like you are putin's best friend to know when the war is about over, you do not date one of the decision makers in the U.S, you can not predict shit about all those factors, and once you and I are informed about the general health of the economy it will be too late to buy crypto.

So really, does not matter from here on if we dip any further, current prices are just good, 15k is better, 10k is even better, one should be prepared to accumulate at any given price, big or small it does not matter, what matter is, buying a solid asset at 70% off or more from ATH was never a bad idea. 

I had an order that filled earlier in the day at the 200 WMA. So far it’s underwater. The way it’s going it looks like it will go to $20K. Stall there for a day or two and break and head lower.

Right now liquidity is horrible, there is tons of negative global news and depending what the fed says on Wednesday. It can be a horrible week.

I can see ETH breaking $1K and BTC breaking $20K.

With the current prices now, do you think many people don't want to be involved in cryptocurrencies? Imagine the news that it has dipped so much that those who have invested have lost a lot. I know that it's just too much for ordinary people to have invested so much in BTC, but it's just that dealing with people could be a saving grace from financial ruin.

This could be a blessing in a  few months if it rallies again into higher prices.

Commodities were the first currency long before we had this modern idea of paper.  Its not too much of a surprise that as part of the ending to this debt issuance, easy money and central banking overplay that we see the return and rise of commodities once more.  Having to pay these higher prices unmasks alot of what was already there waiting, that value must be exchanged for goods bought because this is required in a working economy we pay for what we use.

Dollar appearing to rise is something else, I think that is something of a hot air rise and it'll cool.   Weaker dollar does then also mean some prices continue to go up, dollar is the denominator to many prices.    Adjustment is necessary, its all part of the process so I guess we are talking 2022 for all this to settle out whatever the outcome its not something that occurs in days or weeks but longer so BTC is being tested like everything.  Its appropriate we are once again back to the longest term moving average, reflecting a rough 4 year period 200 week or 50 month.

Well, took only less than one month to reach that, congratulations !


Right now everyone is panicking since we just touched it briefly, I'm just so curious how this will unfold from here on if the trend is broken if the price does go below some indicators it has never touched before this will turn into one hell of beautiful mess.
But I don't see it going so much lower, so...you know, based on my accuracy, beware! 


Lived through years of 20% and two of 40%, this is peanuts for those who have lived in the '90s in Eastern Europe, not even going to mention 3rd world countries who are used to over 100%. Still a lot of room left till panic mode!

But I do agree on the other part, despite what was painted for years, Bitcoin is definitely not going to save the poorest class and maybe not even the medium income one, after all, those are the ones who will run out of money so it will be impossible for them to buy coins or even keep them.  Happened all the time, it was the same with gold, the ones that had gold and were making a fortune out of it during the crisis were still the ones with money in the first place.
Bitcoin might save some persons on individual cases, a few out of thousands but it won't be able to protect the finances of a whole class or country.

I'd probably agree with that. I don't think we've ever recovered from recessions, not completely, and for me certainly not from 2008/2009. Basically, we've mitigated it as long as possible, but it was going to happen regardless of the pandemic or the war in the East happening. Unfortunately for us, both of those have happened, which means that the inevitable recession probably has only been escalated by recent events.

I don't know how that's going to effect Bitcoin, I only wanted to somewhat point out the possibility of somewhat reliable data in the past, not being so reliable these days due to the unprecedented events in recent months. I've never seen cost of living shoot up as much as it has done, and it has happened in a matter of weeks. Fuel is absolutely crazy, and most people invested in Bitcoin also have other jobs, so even if they wanted to buy more Bitcoin, they're going to effected by the cost of living increases, the unheard of inflation rise, there's just so many variables right now, I don't think anyone can accurately predict Bitcoin in the short term.

I'm not sure about going that low. There will still be buying power despite the problems we have. What you'll find is the rich will be accumulating more Bitcoin, while the poor who are more susceptible to these recent increases, won't be able to afford Bitcoin, therefore pushing prices down, but not to complete collapse or massively drastic prices in my opinion. I don't know what the bottom is, but $5k seems too low for me. Especially, when we do have a halving coming up in two ish years, which should help mitigate some issues, especially since inflation is rising with fiat, up to 9% I believe.

Then it means that we might fall to $5k again?
The market behavior is already changed, we can't just predict what really happens next. I'm not certain about a long market recession as the government will find solutions to any economic crisis that will come. That is only just a sort of market correction, the up and down of the economic growth give influence the capability of the individuals to make investments.

The continuing conflict between Russia and Ukraine affecting our financial capabilities but I don't think we have to consider this to make crypto reach the bottom again.

^It is definitely a reason to actually believe that we have been in a long recession ever since the 2008 one and never got back. There are some historians that say that we never had a world war 2, we had world war 1 that continued until 1945 because not only there were some troubles about the situation and at the same time it fired back up just 10 years later.

This should be something that we all care about, and that would be a one big long war instead of two different wars. Same could be said about the recession, that would be similar situation with it, I personally believe that even though there were some increases, it was still a big long recession with 10 year gap.

I believe we've already had the big events that will cause the recession. I don't think we ever recovered from the last one. So, you could argue there's compounding events leading up to this recession.

Right, however this was the case for most things. The housing market made a boom during the pandemic, and now it's showing signs of a crash. I mean, the government in the UK as an example were offering 5% loans, which is exactly what they did prior to the 2008/2009 recession. It's them identifying that without offering incentives, there's going to be a stale market, however the only thing when they do that is when interest rates increase, people then can't afford their mortgages. They also did a few other things like removing stamp duty completely, which is a sort of premium you pay on houses over a certain threshold, i.e another way to tax you.

So, I don't think nuclear war is something that we have to worry about due to MAD, and game theory. However, the bad effects have already happened. We've never seen sanctions like this before, Western countries sanctioning Russia might have hurt the Western countries even more than Russia. A large amount of European countries relied on Russia for its gas, and oil. Now, we've seen massive increases, and I mean unheard of increases in fuel, and heating bills. People paying over 100% of what they were previously. America is a little different since they don't rely on them as much.

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What has happened now is the housing market globally is showing signs of a crash. Houses were flying out of the door a couple months ago, and already we're seeing deals fall through because of the news about inflation. Inflation has gone up around 9% I believe in the last year alone. That's absolutely insane. Food prices due to the war going on are about to shoot up, since Ukraine, and Russia are a massive supplier of wheat etc. The government over here are already warning that heating bills will increase massively over the next year, which they've already been increased by over 100%. Interest rates of mortgages are starting to rise, with some predicting huge increases which basically means those that took up the government incentives of lower deposits, and higher loan to value, means they are going to struggle, and will likely have their house repossessed.

That's just a few examples of what has gone on. However, the governments also have to try, and recoup the billions they spent on the pandemic. That wasn't free when they bought all those vaccines, and it's almost comparable to world wars in the amount spent. Over in the uk national insurance has already increased, which basically equals more tax to try, and recoup. Our healthcare service was basically run into the ground, and I imagine the government are probably going to try, and privatise via claiming it can't cope with its current model, which is absolute horse crap, but there we go.

I know you said that we can't predict when the recession is coming, okay I'll give you that. However, we can absolutely be sure that one is coming. There's no maybes or buts about it. The recession is coming, and it's likely to be the biggest in living memory for a lot of people. Bitcoin, despite performing well during the pandemic, doesn't mean it'll perform well in a recession. Since, every market basically performed well in the pandemic. People were staying home, getting help from the government, and therefore were buying more. In a recession that stops, and Bitcoin likely will be impacted from it.

However, having said all of this, I will agree Bitcoin might surprise us. People might look for an alternative to fiat, due to the fact that inflation is going to sky rocketing, and people will probably for the first time notice that they'll never get anywhere in life, if they continue in the rat race. I think that's the only saving grace that Bitcoin has, technically it performed well after the 2008/2009 recession, and it offers a deflationary model, which benefits its users in the long run.  

So, taking into consideration all of the above, predicting the market in the next couple of months or few years could potentially be very difficult, and not actually follow previous years or conventional analysis. So, identifying the bottom or trying to predict it could be completely wrong. I don't know which way Bitcoin is going, it has proven me wrong before, but I do think that any analysis that has previously proven to be reliable, could potentially be completely unreliable considering these unprecedented times. 

I don't disagree with this common belief, fundamentals can crush technical analysis with one bite that's for sure, I mean if WW3 starts or our planet is invaded by aliens, who would want to buy BTC? probably nobody, but since "we don't know what we don't know" you can't tell for certain that a recession is coming, I mean some folks have been calling for a recession for so many years now, it might take 10 more years to happen, maybe 40 years, we simply don't know.

Based on that, I believe it's wise to use the tools at our disposal, which is TA, when the market crashed in the first wave of the pandemic, it bounced off the 200MA on the weekly despite the fact that everyone was calling for a crash in the market, I remember how most people were shitting their pants and thinking of how are they going to die from the virus, but the markets made huge gains despite all the death and the fear.

This time things are slightly different, yes we have a major war in EU which could turn into nuclear war and take BTC to $100 or close to zero, but it could also end at any second, one might think the aftermath will be brutal and no way for us to recover, but keep in mind that people are sitting on billions of $$ that can enter the market at any moment, in the same time that people are now losing their money, homes and even lives, other people are making a fortune, where do you think all the money that these defense contractors are making will go to? I think it will find its way to the stock market and BTC sooner or later.

I know Bitcoin is in the bottom area and it is good enough for real bitcoiners to accumulate discounting Bitcoin.

Bottom can be $20,000 or $15,000, we can not say what is the bottom now. You are right that $15,000 or $20,000 is not a real big issue if we buy it and hold for the next halving in 2024, only 2 more years.

History say when Bitcoin goes in bear market, it takes 2 years go get out so I think we will see bottom in 2023, in quarter 1 or quarter 2 of 2023.

Yes the 200WMA is one of the best indicators. It never closed below that number. Another one that you should look at is the MVRZ Score.

If you look at the past trends it predicted tops and bottoms very accurately. If you paid attention you could of sold the $65K top. When this score comes back into the range it should be when we are at the 200WMA or so. So a great buy confirmation.

What I will say, if we did dip beyond $19k, I imagine we'd take quite a bit time to recover. I can just imagine the pressure from the recession, but also a lot of people in their minds would be losing money, and mass panic would set in. I don't know what sort of time frame where we would bounce back, since I don't exactly know where we'll be in a few months time or a year from now. However, we definitely ain't rebounding from that within a few months. I know history might suggest otherwise, but I really do believe these are unprecedented times or at least what we have ahead of us, will be rather difficult for a lot of people.

I'm not much of a price watcher usually, but with the recession coming up, I'm quite interested on how Bitcoin, and its users will react. After all, Bitcoin was created due to a recession, and the fact that the banks messed up completely. Wondering if it spurs on adoption after it or will it make people lose faith for a while.

For me, it is still difficult to identify the bottom now, not sure what the price is. If BTC halving will still be the trigger for the next bullish, we still have around 2 years for this bearish. Because on May 12, BTC has dropped below $27k, I think the bottom is probably below $19k. I don't have a specific approach to predict this, but only considering we have still a lot of time for the bearish period. IMO

Sure. We just begin the bearish period, too early for the bottom.
I think we need some months to have the bottom. Theoretically, it may happen in the middle of the bearish period.

The discussion about this is really helpful for people try to find the bottom and want to place their position. I also expect that the market will go below $20k because that's what the trend showing and maybe at that time I will place my position and see if I do short or do split up with long and short since I want to have both for better feature especially want to save some bits for next halving.

It’s good to have thread like this since I’m also trying to figure out what’s the bottom for this bear market and I thought it was already hit since the current price is already at the $30k level again as of posting. Well, upon reviewing this analysis it looks like the market will correct again and maybe the bottom is going to below $20k which I think is better to be ready now. I’m still bullish though and excited to catch up in the bottom, hope to have the chance again to buy at a cheaper price.

I agree that if we are looking at the bottom of the bottom then we could assume that it could go down even more but I doubt that would happen. I am guessing that there is a good case to be made about the situation not being that much of a trouble, it looks like we are going to end up with something that is a bit more dangerous and would probably be looking at the wrong side of things.

If we are looking for a profit, then we can't wait for the bottom of the bottom, we need to end up with something that is risky since we may end up with something that will be hitting and then skyrocket back directly and that won't happen that easily.

Whoops that most have been some good profits right there selling stashed Bitcoin from 2014-2015 at 53,8k and 65k that most have been the highest peak price to sell, this is why Bitcoin is best for long term holding.

I'll go in a bit more detail with my reply to LFC_Bitcoin, however I think technical analysis can basically go out of the window. We're heading for a massive recession, that most people alive have never experienced, and it might just be worse than the great depression after world war, it's hard to know the impact of recent events at the moment.

So, while I do appreciate the effort, and reasoning I just think that while this sort of analysis might have benefited us in the past, and been somewhat accurate, I don't think it'll have the same correlation as usual. Something, maybe you haven't quite factored in?

What do you think?

Depends what you mean by the bottom, are we talking about the current cycle, calendar year, tax year or forever? If it's the latter I'd probably have similar confidence, however if it's any of the other three, I wouldn't be so sure. The world has gone through unprecedented times, we likely have a massive recession on our hands, only comparable to the 1900's, and yeah I'm specifically saying it'll be worse than the 2008/2009. Going through a pandemic isn't only going to have an effect on Bitcoin, but every single currency out there. Buying power will be down shortly, no one will be buying Bitcoin, because they'll be too busy buying the essentials, as inflation kicks our arses.

So, while I'm definitely confident in the long term, I'm not entirely confident we haven't hit the bottom of this year. Ultimately, that allows us with the will, and funds to invest further in Bitcoin at a discounted price. However, I suspect demand will be impacted, due to the above reasons. Bitcoin performed okay after the last recessions (that's if you truly believe we've recovered from that...) however this up, and coming recessions is going to really hard press a lot of people, and I believe it'll be one of the worst positions we've been in for a long time. The war with Russia, and Ukraine impacting fuel, and soon food costs will be bad enough on its own, but throw in a pandemic just before that, which the government has only just started raising things like taxes etc to recoup the amount they lost, I think we'll be struggling for a while.

Great post. It is pretty difficult to for nd the bottom but we can get close to it using indicators that suit our trading plans or way of analyzing chart's price movements. It was nice that you quoted what most of the newbies tend to misinterpret most of the time which is the reversal of trend from bearish to bullish vice versa. Most of the newbies expect an immediate pump just because the selling pressure is subsiding a lot. Which makes them create bad trading plans that usually ends up getting premature profits or worse, even suffer losses due to impatience caused by wrong expectations/hopium.

Of course it would be very interesting if the cycle was repeated. I don't know if we will have it in the future and $20K or $25K being the bottom. But it's good to have this kind of thinking because actually optimism is very important and will help us be calm in investing. Anything can still change and I'm starting to think that as adoption continues to increase then volatility will be lower.

The RSI in the weekly chart doesnt look like its had bottomed, if there is a bkunce of price it could just be what they call the dead cat.

However, the BTC/USD monthly chart doesnt alway touch the bottom, it just goes around 40 with its RSI. There is a possibility of it to speed its way up leaving dumpers burned.

If we enter a recession BTC will go below $20k, and then we enter some uncharted territory. Reason being, we've never gone below ATH's after such rises, and the fall would be due the fact that BTC continues to follow whatever the SP500 does and it can easily retest pre-covid levels before talking a real long lasting bottom. Until BTC manages to decouple from the SP500 you'll have to navigate the market that way.

Great post mikey & I agree with you about the potential bottom being between 19k & 23k. I sold 25% of my stash between 53.8k & 65k which I religiously hodled from 2014 & 2015. I started buying back at 31.8k & will continue all the way down.

The bottom is not yet in, I’m pretty certain of that.

good analysis in my opinion even though many analyzes fail at least every analysis can provide encouragement and enthusiasm for amateur investors. Looking at the chart presented, a bearish peak has occurred and a bullrun will occur in the future. based on my prediction, looking at the graph that in 2023 bitcoin will experience a sharp spike and can penetrate the previous high price.

I don’t have too many doubts in the long run, but I have to admit that all the TAs I’ve seen lately are pretty similar when it comes to a possible bottom. Although for most the loss of another 20-30% at the current price would be a real disappointment, we have already seen this in the past, of course only the numbers were different.

In any case, unless something really big and positive happens, it seems that we will have at least a year and a half (maybe two) in which there will be many more who will be disappointed than those who will take advantage of a new investment opportunity. Although it is necessary to understand ordinary people who were looking for some kind of shelter in Bitcoin but did not reckon that Bitcoin is not just a one-way street.

Great analysis, but making technical analysis without fundamental analysis seems kinda pointless to me.
What if the Bitcoin price gets out of the bear market and right before the bull run something happens-a major FUD campaign, a government crypto ban, some big crypto project collapsing, a big crypto exchange getting hacked... All the technical analysis goes into oblivion.
OK, we all get it, the Bitcoin price is going to recover several months(or maybe a year) after the May price crash. We don't need technical analysis, in order to know this info.
The price bottom doesn't matter for the hardcore BTC HODLers. If you plan to HODL for years, does it even matter what the price bottom will be?18K, 20K or 25K?I understand that knowing when the price bottom will occur would be beneficial for the buyers, but almost nobody can have a perfect timing over the crypto markets.

This will be our hopium now, I am also rooting for it. This is one of the best technical analysis I saw so far for these recent dumps.
Sometimes it's good also to look to another side especially on the bearish side, for no bias.
It looks like the main support level for this cycle is the previous all-time-high last bull run 2017-2018, so it's on around $20,000.

200 week I pay attention to but we can cross over, the 50 monthly might be a even better indication but a month is a long time to check its close.  Overall I agree it wont be an easy event, we'll be negative but just about able to climb back out and have to wait a while.  Other kind of bottom is a V fast down and fast up but seems like thats not going to be the case.

We're in the area of last years low, about 29247 which was June and July before it turned around so basically over a month to really stop scaring people out of the price action or 3 months if we say May as well.  So expect similar now, a longer fight to alter momentum downwards.

I think OBV shows we are acting negatively still, not sure anyone likes that indicator but I find easier to read and simplicity is all Im looking for because I think it relates to consensus.

Three and a half years ago, I used some simple TA to identify the bear market bottom and was lucky/successful, this time, I will use the same exact tools and see how we stand.


1- 50 Moving Average on the monthly chart.



Never in BTC's history has it had a monthly close below the 50SMA, right now, it's at $20,600, back in 2018, we did not even touch it, the 50MA was 5-6% lower, and thus I expect a similar or better scnerio to unfold this cycle.

2- 200 Moving Average on the weekly chart.



Sitting pretty at $21,850, sometimes small wicks below it, but nobody has ever regretted buying BTC near the 200MA, ever.

3- The low 20k range is a major support/resistance level.

This historical ATH has a massive support potential, it's highly unlikely that we see even a daily close below this level, it's probably the place where the last bear will just sit on their hands and do nothing.


4- The Stochastic RSI on the monthly chart.



Pretty damn close to the 2015 and 2018 bottom levels.

5- The RSI on the monthly chart.




Currently sitting at 47.3, in the previous cycles it bottomed at 44.5, pretty close.

6- The ichimoku cloud on the weekly chart.[/b]



"Nothing much to say about this, it's clear that every time the red cloud appears, the bear market get's closer to end."

The cloud begins in July, so could July/Aug be the bottom? could very well be.


Finally, I'd like to quote myself



We needed 4 months, to get out of the 3-6k zone, I won't be surprised if we take 4 months or even more to break free from the 20-40k trap, while all the indicators used in this topic point to more decrease in price and possibly 19-23k, timing the exact bottom is just stupid, 2-3 years from now if this turns out to be the bottom, it won't matter if you bought at 20k or 25k, just how it didn't matter buying at 3k or 4k back in 2018.