Topic: Two Events that'll Influence the Strength of NGN /USDT (Read 127 times)

Wetin you yan na true talk. wat if de goverment come change their mind for the subsidy when dey wan comot. I hear say NUC won protest say why goverment comot subsidy?

Dangote talk say him go dey export (abi him dey expect to they export)  around 40% of wetin dem refine to outside. When exportation happen for any country e dey introduce foreign exchange so dat one go surely affect dollars. The problem of this xounyna say we no dey export anything sufficient to dey make foreigner dey bring there dollars come the country which side is why dollars hard to get here and this one follow why dollars dey cost. We dey too over value am. Tinubu administration go also help the situation of the country, heim dun first commot subsidy and na better thing be dat. That subsidy dey chase away foreign investors wey for come invest for the refinery and filling stations wey we get to get slots for the profits wey the dem go generate.

When you subsidies something, you make it difficult for competition and without competition and freedom for the market to decide price, investors no go dey interested in that thing. Now wey Tinubu dun comot subsidy na for local refinery to start to dey attract international investors wey go help make dem function. Make the government commot hand for the refinery and dey tax dem but make dem function on their own and watch how dollars go begin enter the country, Naira begin get value and fuel prices begin to come down. Competition go dey for filling station too and no be this nonsense wey dem dey mandate everybody to sell the same price weather you dey make profits or not

You need to know some basic rules of economics, i know you can think its a good analises what a reyou making and in some ways it is, but you are lacking ONE BIG FACTOR.

The factor its, in a country like Nigeria always its better to have a non so powerfull coin, because you are a basic exporter country and also that can maintain low the imports, so the countrie can have more easy a positive balance of trade.

Imagine you are USA and you need to buy oil, and one countrie have 1/10 against usd, and other 1/20 , its much more cheap to them to make busines with the most depreciated coin.

Before you say something, yes in the long place you need a strong coin, but unless you need to make more of this steps.

This is a great idea by the Federal Government for allowing other private oil firms to also import their products. With this in place, we should witness a more competitive market and the price of the petroleum products will rise or fall according to the market conditions just like bitcoin.

With this approval given to private companies too, does that means they can also buy directly from the dangote refinery if operation starts fully? So also, if the government owned refineries are fully operational we might see a downfall in prices, or will the government also buy from the refineries and resell to the public according to the market flow and demand of it? I’m just curious to know what should be expected in the soonest future after this removal of fuel subsidy.

We may not experience a shortage in petroleum supplies since the government have issued license to private pms importars which means the petroleum importation market is now a free market and anyone can now import petroleum products and sell at an unregulated price which means the market forces will determine the price of the petrol, unlike during subsidy where only the NNPC is the sole importers and the DPPR set the price where government settled subsidy difference.

What we should look out for where there is free market flow!
Take Bitcoin for example,  the market force determine bitcoin price so when the demands exceed the availability it will result into the high price for the scarcely available product, and if there is a surplus of supplies it then means there will be a price crash since the products exceed the demand so it both ways.

But in this situation, there is going to be the availability of the petroleum product since the importation is now a free market and the government issues licenses to any individual or private company who wants to import the product.

This was a very bold step taken by the president of Nigeria, Bola Ahmed Tinubu. This should have been effected a long time ago but I don’t know why the past governments keeps delaying it till now. We want a government that is ready to take action and responsibility immediately to better the economy of our nation. We are far left behind amongst other nations, I pray the renewed hope favours all Nigerians.


This was not what was disclosed to the public about the refinery during lunching. It was said that operation will start immediately and the first batch of crude oil will be supplied to the refinery by June. But if what you’ve said is true, then we could face another shortage of petroleum products if we don’t have enough in stock that were already refined to be used till October 2023.

it was a tough decision removing the subsidy because the subsidization has cushioned Nigerians years from now, but it also a huge step towards improving the economic because the government pours several dollars for subsidy, so with the removal; the government promise an increase of 6% GDP (gross domestic product).
The Dongote refinery will make a great impact to the economy as it will be producing 650,000 barrel pay day, with this, they will be decrease in importation, and increase in currency savings.
But regardless, i'll prefer saving in USDT because of trading.
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You prefer saving in USDT for trading but what if the naira plummets to 650/$?
How do you manage that risk?

How do you think these two events could impact the strength of NGN against the USD? Will you buy and save USDTinstead of saving in NGN?
[/quote] it was a tough decision removing the subsidy because the subsidization has cushioned Nigerians years from now, but it also a huge step towards improving the economic because the government pours several dollars for subsidy, so with the removal; the government promise an increase of 6% GDP (gross domestic product).
The Dongote refinery will make a great impact to the economy as it will be producing 650,000 barrel pay day, with this, they will be decrease in importation, and increase in currency savings.
But regardless, i'll prefer saving in USDT because of trading.

The Dangote refinery is a business owned refinery that could and could not have major impact except Nigerian government decides to play there cards well. The refinery if at all could refined our crude locally( there are situations were local made products aren’t cost effective) then it would save the government the landing cost payed to bring back the PMS back. Also the subsidy could be payed in crude and to the refinery thereby reducing the amount of crude the refinery gives it out to marketers. The government then need to enact serious rules on the price regulation because currently the Nigeria PMS price is not regulated. As for the export it definitely depends on the exchange rate used by the company. If the company uses the dollars which is the international exchange currency then an impact on the Naira won’t be felt because the importing countries won’t see the need to make use of it.


The Dollar rate unification will definitely help coupled with having to open the boarder and the government prioritizing local made products. These products could be exported out using the Naira as the exchange rate.
Concerning hoarding in any of the dollar or Naira, I would say Dollar is more is preferable but I wouldn’t have all my savings or major savings in both. The Dollar itself is under strong pressure for devaluation as more and more countries do not longer make it a priority international exchange currency again. Also the use of it as a reserve currency has decreased as many countries look into other assets like Gold which is a store of value. Even the Nigerian government Should start reducing its much dependence on it, because according to reports they have close 60% of their reserve in the dollar currency. Which will be a great disaster should the currency face any challenge in the coming near future

The two me mentioned are not big enough to impact or influence the value of the naira vs the US dollar, the only thing that I can point to that can impact and make changes to the exchange rate is the move by the president to make just one exchange price, which means the naira will have a unified value unlike what we currently have that we have dollar vs black market price vs CBN official rate.

Note that the Dangote refinery was just commissioned but the truth is the refinery is not functional yet because it has not been fully built and it will take up to August to October 2023 to have the refinery working and which is a long time from now that may make different sense to Nigerians.

Our petroleum marketers are the main problem.

If they did not buy at subsidize price to send out to these neighboring countries, these countries will come buy it themselves at the official price which can fetch the country more money, but our marketers chose to hijack the profit instead of leaving it to the government.

Well, it doesn't sound plausible that Nigeria is subsidizing PMS for neighboring countries. How does that affect the economy? Money released from there could be channeled into productive use

Many of the fuel that are used by Nigerians are not refined in Nigeria. Dangote refinery will be capable of refining domestic fuel and export if true what we heard about it. This will definitely helps reduce naira devaluation.

What I first thought of about fuel subsidy removal is that it will result to inflation. We should be expecting that. But according to what the president said, Nigeria is exporting subsidized PMS (petrol) to Benin Republic, Cameron and Republic of the Niger. If PMS subsidy is removed, more foreign currency can flow into Nigeria and this may likely help to reduce naira devaluation.

There are two events that have occurred in the past one month in Nigeria that have the potential to impact the exchange rate.

1. The Launching of Dangote Refinery:
It is believed that the facility could produce adequate refined fuel ⛽ for local consumption. Asides that, the excess production could be exported. Export means demand for the NGN and appreciation of the currency.

2. The BAT administration :
The BAT administration is very critical for the economy of Nigeria. Starting with the removal of fuel subsidy and the reaction of the USD to NGN as a result is just one of the many policies to be introduced.

How do you think these two events could impact the strength of NGN against the USD? Will you buy and save USDTinstead of saving in NGN?