Topic: Tyler Winklevoss: BTC is not a hedge to pandemics (Read 483 times)

Some might say it just reacted quicker than stock markets. It's traded 24/7 worldwide unlike markets with circuit breakers and closing times. It's going to plunge quicker and deeper so a recovery will be quicker and higher too.

To convince me it's not correlated to overall sentiment it would have to do its own thing for several weeks in a row and I can't see that happening. It is of course welcome to do that if it wants to.

Yes, I think he's more or less right. However, I'd say an interesting word combination here is 'short-term'. While Bitcoin is going down along with everything else, we can see that it's been able to recover a bit already, and the trend might even continue. And since it's about fiat regimes rather than the pandemic, but the pandemic might bring fiat regimes to their end, the time when these words gain special meaning might come very soon. Yep, it's me still believing Bitcoin might get out of this all becoming a save haven. This belief still exists, but it is getting weaker.

First, Bitcoin dropped like everything else on the markets.

Then, unlike the rest, it has started to recover.

How is it not safe haven?

From what I know, more and more nocoiners have been turning to crypto in general and specifically to Bitcoin lately.

Those who are claiming now that Bitcoin has failed, lost apriori.

Of course not, nothing is resistant to a sudden panic sell, and liquid assets like Bitcoin and fiat currencies are usually the first to go.

After all, it's not so easy to liquidate gold or physical assets, hence why stocks tend to get dumped like mad while commodities and precious metals stay up.

That said, I do think Bitcoin will recover faster than traditional markets once the pandemic eases up.

I can't believe anyone thought this would be 'good for Bitcoin'. Some sort of economic shock in isolation, maybe, but that's always bilge too. Definitely not something of this magnitude. You'd have to be a legitimate nutter to think that but I think we probably have enough of those.

I've never believed a proper recession would do it the slightest good and we might be on the cusp of a big 'un. Alternatively they might blag their way out of this with some truly shameless moves which theoretically would be beneficial for Bitcoin's perception. We're not going to know until a few months have passed.

No one? Lol!!!!!!!!!
It was more like everybody!
Should I start posting here all the topics how BTC is saving people from war, famine, economic meltdown, even wildfires?
There were topics right on this forum, about how BTC is not affected by the coronavirus, all the meme of the honeybadger not caring?

Common, a lot of people saw this crisis as a launchpad for BTC, a lot of people have some weird fetish that is the world is going to end you will make it with BTC.
No, a lot believed that BTC was a safe heaven that people scared from the virus will buy the coin and dump stocks.
It didn't happen.


Mars to ....wherever you are!
Have you actually checked the charts and the prices before saying this?

This is true, has the market is showing in a pandemics like the world is witnessing the price of most asset is going to be affected negatively. I just hope this issue with Corona Virus get resolved soon because if not it could be a long night night and as e have seen it is very easy for the price to go down than to go up

He is actually right,  the pandemic has really had a negative impact on stuck, globa economy,  crude oil and cryptocurrency.  At this rate if the spread,  we don't even know when it would end.  Let's all hope for the best

My opinion on this tweet is absolutely the opposite - gold, oil, gas and other resources will only fall due to the crisis, while bitcoin, on the contrary, will grow. The panic subsides and we see how the cryptocurrency market comes to its former state

Right, many have claimed that bitcoin could be a good leverage and they have picture this for many years that people started to believed in it. However, with the recent covid-19 pandemic and the way bitcoin has been tested and reacted, seems that it is not a good hedge for this kind of massive health crisis.

Absolutely, now, against the background of the coronovirus, our health and the health of our loved ones are coming to the fore. Although the introduction of various measures, such as self-isolation, provides opportunities for a more detailed analysis of the market, due to more free time.

I'am absolutely agree, as we all know when the corona virus started in spreading it everything are collapsed and the bitcoin doesn't saved from collapsing because of what is happening in our crisis now. But instead of worrying about the price of many currencies such as bitcoin, we need to give so much attentions on our health, family and foods because these are most important among them. After the crisis about the COVID-19 everything will be fine and starting to get back to normal, but for know just focused on our health first.

No one. It's just that a lot of people are already claiming that bitcoin failed as a hedge in general just because it crashed by 40%+ most likely due to the fear of the coronavirus pandemic. I mean, take a look at r/cryptocurrency and crypto Twitter.

I believe people are seeing the pandemic just as another way of making money. The panic is juzt an excuise that people who can't understand how the markets work use to explain the current situation.
When stocks fell many wealthy investors saw it as an opportunity and started  taking leveraged position because that's what you do in stocks. They usually fall a little then go up again, so for the last 10 years all you needed to do is buy when they went down just a bit, but when they continued to fell and every next session closed lower people had to get money from somewhere to keep their positions from being liquidated so they sold their long term steady investments like BTC, commodities and so on. Silver has taken a big hit lately among other things.

Only think i will tell you: If you have your wealth invested in fiat, expect to lose it any moment. There are many things you can buy to sell later at fair price EVEN if your fiat collapse.

Holding in fiat is so dangerous because people lower the guard and there is where they are hit the worst.

Gold is not bad, bitcoin is great, some other assets are fine too. Diversify if you don't trust, but stating in fiat is only a bomb waiting to detonate.

And yes, bitcoin is simply a matter of waiting for a price recovery, if you bought at higher price. But if you are yet to buy, current low prices are great to get in.

It's because in bitcoin's existence, we haven't seen this kind of situations and we even don't know how to react to it. And with the current situations, everyone is into a panic pushing the price and then media telling that it is not a hedge. Well, how can we say that if this is the first time we have experience this?

On the contrary, we should look at the bright side, and learn from it.

Who said Bitcoin is a hedge to pandemics tho?

I might be wrong, but I haven't actually seen anyone saying it's a hedge to pandemics. All I've witnessed for now is charity scams and dumb ass articles on cointelegraph trying to connect the outbreak in its early days to price fluctuations

I agree. Surprisingly, Bitcoin already has some signs of recovery compared to pretty much every stock indices at the moment.

I feel like a genius more and more lately, seeing all these experts and influencers come out only to say things I've been thinking all along.

Surely there must be a lot of people feeling a bit stupid now, especially when Bitcoin was flying during the US-China trade wars, Iran tensions and even at the beginning of the news trickling out of Wuhan.

When the whole world is hurt, hungry and fearful, everything else takes a back seat. Even Bitcoin.

Contrary to popular opinion , people are more worried about their health .
At the same time they cannot just stop everything and then start just relaxing at home , the government is not able to provide salaries for them at a time like this .
Saying how people should be more worried about health is not something that we are seeing from their point of view, the current society is all around money , you can only afford to stock up during quarantine if you have money .
So if they are worried about Bitcoins, about their investments , come on people they have to earn one way or the other , life never stops , nor does the taxes or other expenses.

I agree with what he has said, he’s right. This is a global crisis and everything will be affected . Gold has been dropping in price after reaching as high as $54000+, it dropped down to $48000+ per kilo gram. So, the same way that Bitcoin is being influenced by the pandemic is how other stocks and assets are being affected. Right now, there are things that people are more worried about than stocks and assets like good and Bitcoin.

For now, the most important thing to the world is how to solve the outbreak that has taken place, people’s health is what matters most and not really all these. It’s when you have life that you talk about money.

Even gold is not working as risk hedging right now. I dont know in what to invest

I agree with Tyler submission. A pandemic in the world is deadly to human, and when the whole of human race is been threatened by a pandemic which has no immediate solution the fear of death and what happens will cause everything to begin to collapse. Every investment class will be affected both real estate.

He was right, it is not only BTC who is facing a downfall today, but most of the industries around the world are also affected by the huge problem by the Corona Virus. this pandemic has brought a huge problem in the market and the worst part is, we don't know how long it will affect the crypto market. Most of the major cities are facing lockdown as of the moment and we don't know when will it end.

I don't think Bitcoin is at the point in its lifecycle where it can be considered a hedge against anything.

Right now, Bitcoin is still reliant on the internet. If that goes down, so too does Bitcoin.

Until we can get starlink going or some other network based satellite system, Bitcoin isn't completely safe, and will likely collapse when traditional markets do.

We need something that will enable Bitcoin to thrive even without internet or strong access to electricity. Offline wallets will only get us so far since they are unwieldy.

Talking about gold, I'm not really sure (tho gold should be affected too). The last time I checked, gold price just had a slight decrease. Unlike bitcoin whose price has been sort of slashed in 2.

Bitcoin has not shown itself to be particularly stable in this situation, even if we compare it against oil, stocks, gold and other conservative assets. Therefore, I strongly doubt that if it shakes, then cryptocurrencies will be something significant.

With the way how every major market turns to south currently, yes, Tyler's views are actually of releveance. Everyone is panicking: supermarkets are being emptied of basic necessities and there are uncertaintiea everywhere. People are basically liquidating assets for fast cash to buy what they need, hence why most stocks and most cryptocurrencies are down. Hopefully this goes only short-term, and that vaccines would be out by the next 6 months. No one anticipated the outbreak anyways so panic really would be the initial response.

Are you referring to the BTC price or the global economy? I don't think it's realistic to expect everything to return to normal if the pandemic ends in the next 3-4 months, which is kind of optimistic prognosis. Also, the virus will not die, it can just stop expanding the way it is does now (assuming that people develop immunity), or it can mutate. As for your observation "stop panicking like school girls", you should know that 300+ people die in Italy daily from COVID-19, and they are just in first month of epidemic.

I agree that now is good time for buying, but only if you have some extra money and you live in country where people do not pay fortune for simple protection mask or disinfectant. In my country pack of masks costs around 3 EUR, now the same pack is cost almost 65 EUR.

Tyler was right, I'm still holding this - bcoz it is history right here

Maybe we shouldn't say it is a hedge against fiat regimes, but rather that it was designed to be. That sort of widespread trust in money can't be built overnight -- it's based on both network effect and being time tested.

If the US dollar collapsed tomorrow, I don't think the world would flock to Bitcoin. 20 or 30 years from now, my answer may be different.

Well, he's obviously right that Bitcoin isn't a hedge against pandemics, I doubt anyone will argue with that today. But is Bitcoin a hedge again "fiat regimes"? This idea never been truly tested, I wouldn't count Zimbabwe or Venezuela as a proof, those are tiny local crises. If something like that happened with the west, and it caused similar economic crash as we are experience now, then maybe Bitcoin would react just like it reacts now. People don't want to hold something highly speculative and volatile during hard times.

Yes. The markets are expecting the pandemic to hinder growth and cause recession. That creates unfavorable investment conditions for stocks, commodities, and other investment assets. Investors are reducing market exposure and looking to government bonds and cash as a hedge.

That will always be the case, until there is a significant loss of confidence within fiat money systems. If major fiat currencies began to default and collapse, that would drive people en masse towards alternative forms of money that hedge against that risk. Gold or Bitcoin could be viable alternatives in that situation. In conventional economic crises, that won't happen.

No, i don't think any fiat can pull bitcoin with it. That's the whole point.

For example if the USD fails, bitcoin price expressed in USD will go crazy up, then you can no longer reliable measure bitcoin performance using USD, you will need to switch to whatever fiat survives, or something different like gold.

Indeed if one of the major fiat fails, i think it might pull the other fiats, but not bitcoin, not too much anyway.

Bitcoin has performed quite well under the circumstances, and anyone with bitcoin should simply wait to the crisis to go over. Those without bitcoin, should take this opportunity to buy more, before their fiat money collapses. Even if it never collapses, bitcoin will recover to about where it was before the virus, eventually so its simply a matter of time.

People don't lose anything, unless they are playing at margin trading and did the wrong move. Margin trading is always very risky anyway.

Since Wuhan is already declaring end of virus, sooner than later China will restart production, and what you perceive as bear might suddendly turn bullish, if only to race buying cheap (anything) while it lasts...

This thing i'm sure: Even after an economy collapse, bitcoin will be there. But your fiat might now. Are you willing to take the risk? Yes the problem is that you have yet to experience a hyperinflation, you think it might never happen to you, your coin is just too strong to fail...

Bitcoin fluctuates, but its true and honest, while fiat and pegged coins (ie. "stable") are time bombs waiting to happen. IF it happens, you won't have time to flee into bitcoin, it would be too late.

So if bitcoin is no hedge, fiat is even less of a hedge, and stable coins are much worse. This is like a bank before a bankrun, all the trust you place in your bank won't save you if it does happen.

Winklevoss bros. are free to do and say whatever, they already made their money in the previous crisis. Did they miss this one? I think anyway paying attention acted in January when it was beginning, before it spread to the world.

Dafuq this guy has been buying the BTC since forever and fortunate enough to buy in bulk from unsuspecting seller, I think he is not even mind a -50% dip in price, but for the rest of us, we can’t even afford a -10% dump.

$800billions in 2008 and $5 trillions in 2020 in Fed balance sheet, I know people are yelling at me “house price are soaring through the roof, paycheck are still the same.” Is it going to be true? The last 10 years we have just seen gold price to soar less than 2x, yet property price in third world China soaring to record high, I think it’s safe to assume 4-5x soar rate, almost at tandem with what the Fed balance sheet has to said.

Yeah, a lot of theories and we won't probably know until the end...
Japan has an even older population than Italy and Tokyo was just as cold as Milan in February!
There are a lot of ifs and incomplete data we won't know it till summer kicks in or we're done with it.




Yes, this is the real problem and one you can't avoid by just not going out!
If the economy is down and jobs are lost, bitcoin or litecoin, that won't save your ass more than temporarily.
In the end, we use bitcoin for transfer of wealth, just like money, we buy stuff with bitcoins, the more stuff we have the more we buy and the more we use BTC

What if we don't have what to spend it on or we restrict what we buy, people that were selling some products even if only for BTC will be left with no buyers, they will shut down...

China is opening its factories back, good news.
Europe and the US are shutting down almost everything, who will buy all that stuff when everybody is just thinking of food?

I'm afraid this one will be worse than in 2007 if the trend is not inversed by the end of March.

Tyler Winklevoss believe what he is saying like he wants us to sell at cheap price?    Not the kind of wisdom that will save someone from getting rekt. Despite them keeping their worthless EFT proposals there isn't a group of individuals who wants them shutup.

The media see this as pandemic yet HIV which were there for the longest time and have been killing lives were not consider pandemic. BS

it is not the main reason but it helps a lot. like any other similar virus (Flue, common cold,...) we don't see them regularly in the hotter seasons.

Well, I completely hope so. Hopefully other countries like the U.S. and the Asian countries won't go the Italy route[1]. Yes I know that their granny/gramps population is high hence the high death toll, but still. I don't think we still have enough proof that the increased temperature was actually the cause of the "flattened curve" in China.

---

[1] https://qz.com/1819064/coronavirus-deaths-and-infections-globally-surpass-china/

i am not so sure about that. things remain bad as long as the virus is being spread at a fast speed. in a couple of months with increasing temperatures it will stop growing (it already did in China) and things could simply go back to normal.
a big reason for all these drops is the closed boarders and every business/company that shut down to go to quarantine. them coming back will put everything back in its previous stage.

He's completely right. But not only that, even if we ever get a fiat collapse any time soon, I think bitcoin would also tank anyway. It's simply too early and liquidity is too low for people to actually sort of "trust" the asset. In the long-term future though? That's where I'm really really bullish.

I don't consider bitcoin as a hedge for anything at all. It's great that Tyler has the guts to speak up truth in public forum, but bitcoin isn't a hedge for anything. It looks good as a parallel economy thriving within the internet ecosystem. It's a great asset for speculators to ride the wave and make money. But it's not a hedge in any way! For hedge, I would look for something more steady in pricing!

As others have said, bitcoin will recover, and when it does, it won't have taken negative interest rates and a couple of trillion dollars printed out of thin air in the name of "quantitative easing" to get there.

Absolutely, and it is going to be horrific. Before 2008, the Fed's balance sheet was only around $800 billion, and interest rates were over 5%, which provided a lot of leeway for interest rates to be cut down to 0-0.5% and for the Fed to pump out almost $4 trillion in QE. The Fed had only just started to manage to reduce their balance sheet from 2008, and got it from $4.5 billion down to around $3.8 billion, before the overnight repo nonsense from the end of last year pushed it back up again. Now, in the space of a couple of weeks, they've cut interest rates twice back down to 0%, and they've committed to another $700 billion in QE, which will push their balance sheet back to an all time high of almost $5 trillion. The national debt and deficit are both rapidly increasing. The Fed have nowhere left to go other than negative interest rates and printing money even faster. The coming recession is going to be horrific, and USD is rapidly becoming worthless.

Yes. Absolutely. And it's very much to his credit as the usual Twitter pumpers aren't being realists about this, or haven't taken the time to consider it.

Things will be back on track at some point and when the smoke has cleared conventional economics will be more zombified than anyone thought possible. That's when Bitcoin's qualities count. Until then it's getting pounded in the backside like everything else.

Even then this should be a reminder of what most Bitcoin owners REALLY think which is - gimme more dollarinis. If there's no dollars then they're outta here. That needs to change before it can ascend to a more viable level.

It doesn't matter what Bitcoin is capable of if the people buying and selling it don't care about it.

The price will recover & everything will return to normal once this virus dies out & people stop panicking like school girls. I think for sure bitcoin will trade at around $10,000 by the close of 2020.

Now is the time to be buying, not selling.

One need not be too wise to reach such a conclusion, it is enough to look at the actual data to see that for example gold is down around 6% in last 30 days, and that oil is first go down for 20%, and today 10% more.

It is all a market response to a completely unknown situation, and unfortunately a lot of people in this panic will lose their money, but there is no doubt that some will get rich after all. What really bothers me is that this pandemic will push the world into a new recession, because many countries were already in a technical recession before COVID-19, and this is just something that definitely confirms that a very difficult period in the coming years awaits us.

What matters in the whole story is that the economy collapses very easily, but it takes years to rebuild.

I agree with him as far as bitcoin not being immune to this crisis, which it obviously hasn't been.  I'm not sure what he means about bitcoin being a hedge against fiat, unless he means fiat's collapse--he certainly can't mean against inflation of fiat currencies, because bitcoin's volatility alone knocks that right out the window.

Anyway, everything is getting slammed right now and it'll probably get worse before it gets better.  But the optimist in me is happy that bitcoin didn't get pounded down into the triple digits (yet).  It's still higher than it was at the beginning of 2019, so that's not too bad.

I totally agree, people are saying BTC is supposing to perform well against this crisis, but it's a global crisis, related to health, why people should be worried about BTC and not with haleth / food / medical care / family / regular job?

It's weird how people act during crisis

https://twitter.com/tylerwinklevoss/status/1239255301171314689

Do you agree on Tyler's view? personally, this is what we have seen obviously, when global markets are affected, every assets are going to be impacted as well, gold and oil for instance. And. this is new ground for bitcoin, we have never seen this before. The use case that we have witnessed is the Venezuela crisis, not a pandemic like this so I'm with agreement with him