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Good pick. But how did you know? Are you a wizard? He he he. At those odds I would have doubts on Herrig's chances of winning. The sportsbooks usually know the probabilities better than us.
Allthough that is generaly true, that is not how sportsbooks always make lines.
Sportsbooks do not always balance and instead choose to fade the public, this is a simple way to explain without getting totaly off topic.
The jobs that we have as bettors and people making picks is looking for value.
For example if I was the person making the line I would have put it at even money on that fight, so in my opinon there was a lot of value on Herrig.
Why?
I documented why on my site https://degenbet.com there is also a video there were I discuss this and some of the other fights on the card. I also got a pick wrong! I had Hill vs Andrade under 2.5 rounds. How Hill made it though the fight, I dont know. I wanted to bet on Andrade but there was not much value in 1.20 or less for her to win, so I went for the under 2.5. If you watch the fight you will see what a bad beat that pick was, it was close, but that is not good enough.
Sure Grasso is good, and even rocked Herrig right at the end, that was not enough though.
People undefeated for a long time somtimes go into "do not lose mode" you saw this in her fight vs heather jo a little.
Lots of distractions! Super Bowl, Undefeated, young and put on the UFC hype train, and in Texas almost a home play since she is from Mexico facing Herrig who can be kind of a bully in your face style fighter, 3.45 mispriced.
https://twitter.com/theog__/status/828205280328560641
For confirmation you can also check out the "real" weigh ins
This was right before they said "116" which is the max she can weigh, does she look really ready to go?
Compare that to Herrig, she just walks in stands on the scale and is good to go.
Although the weigh ins can be hard to base a pick on alone, it can be a good way to confirm or to fade fighters that look like crap then.
TIP: Avoid watching the UFC hype videos. These are the documentary style shows they use to hype fighters. They want to build an emotional connection between you and the fighter. Regardless if the figher is a 9.00 underdog they will do their best to make you think that they will win and have a good chance of doing so. I dont watch any of those videos untill im 100% sure of my picks and have placed bets on them. It helps me, it might help you too.
IMO . MMA is the best sport to find really good value on underdogs, just look around.
Thank for the tips. I will surely check your website from time to time from now on. Also yes, Alexa did not look ready enough during the weigh in. Maybe the pressure made her lost focus and what has to be done. Maybe the woman in the picture holding the cover is really the sister of Felice Herrig threatening her. Look!
