Topic: Ukraine Invasion: Will Sanctions Alone Stop Russia? (Read 345 times)

Wake up guys, I don't say that sanctions are useless, sanctions can destroy their economy long-term, every day it provides some mini shots to their built economy but it can't stop the war. I'm saying that sanctions can't stop the war, in this regard, yes, they are useless because Russians knew that the western world would sanction them and they were prepared for that.

Have a look at Norway and then have a look at Russia. Norway is a great Scandinavian country, it's rich, the government provides the income from gas & oil to its citizens, quality of life is very high, an amazing country in aspect except the weather. Do you know what Russia does? Russia invests most of its income in the military, that's why their quality of life is so low. I don't really believe that the statistics that Russia provides are really true, of course, they are false and Russia is not spending $65.9 billion a year on the military, they are spending more but it's fair to say that their military sucks.

There are differences between what is being done, what should be done and what will be done. Europe is dependent on Russian gas, believe it or not, Germany is not going to destroy its economy, not Austria and other countries are going to do that. Have you heard what Macron said to Zelenskyy? Macron asked him to give up some land for peace.
Don't expect much from the USA and from Europe. They have their own interests in this war too and will act according to it. Will there be a direct threat to Germany? France? NATO? We will see a whole different scenario.

You are right, they are not completely useless, just not effective.

France, Germany, and Hungary provide $1B/day to Russia to finance this ethnic genocide.

The only thing that would work IMHO is a total trade embargo on Russia, confiscation of assets of all Russian citizens,
and their deportation back to Russia.

The breakup of diplomatic ties with Russia by all civilized countries might be effective.

If sanctions are useless, then the absence of sanctions is even more useless.
If russia completely cuts off the export of oil and gas and prohibits the import of high-tech products to russia, as well as the technologies themselves, then there will be a very tangible benefit, russia finances the war at the expense of oil and gas.

They already live in poverty, they are even ready to live in more poverty. There was an interview on NTV and respondents were saying that they support Putin and they'll eat ground and drink water to survive but still reach their (Putin's) goals. Some may say that it's propaganda but from my experience short time experience in Russia, I think that it's really their mentality. I've seen a lot of guys who were ready to do everything in order to get Vodka. Vodka was everything for them, I was calling them бpoдя́ги 

USA & Europe representatives were saying that sanctions would trigger Russian citizens to do something and change Putin or his decision and stop the war but in reality, sanctions can't change a thing inside Russia. What do you think, there are millionaires and billionaires in Russia but none of them have ever established a real political party and power against Putin. There is a question, why? Because Russia is a corrupt country, they make money because of Putin and his regime. Sanctions can't really stop this process, Russia is being sanctioned for months but the war still continues. What do they have to lose right now? Sanctions won't be abolished if Russia stops the war.

Si vis pacem, para bellum - If you want peace, prepare for war.
This is what life teaches us.

If, in your opinion, sanctions are useless, then what can stop the war?
I personally do not think that sanctions are useless, they still have benefits, if the people support the war, then they must live in poverty and suffer.
This is an axiom.

Up till this very moment we have seen that economic sanction hasn't stopped Russia from invading Ukraine. The war is still going on, on Ukrainian soil. Russia is still holding some cities in Ukrainian hostage despite the economic sanction given to them by the USA. It will be hard to pull down Russia's economy through sanctions. Cause they do supply gas and crude oil to other countries. Some are even dependent on Russian gas and electricity.

You absolutely don't know what's happening. National companies of European countries have to open ruble accounts in Russia’s Gazprombank. They can still deposit Euros or any currency they wish, it's a Russian bank that converts deposited funds to rubles and transfers to Gazprom. So, if 1 Ruble is equal to 1 gram of gold, they just get fewer Rubles, that's all. But you can't just make currency equal to something the way you wish.

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People who think that sanctions can stop Russia, don't know the mentality of the Russian people. Watch this, this is a typical life outside Moscow and Saint Petersburg. Russian people don't have comfort similar to people who live in Europe, the USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. The propaganda works so well in Russia, check NTV and some other national TVs if you know the Russian language, speak and listen to some local Russian people, they are ready for everything in order to achieve their national Putin's goals. What do they have to lose? Comfortable life? High salaries? High quality of life? No, they have nothing to lose, sanctions will only harm average guys who are so brainwashed, support the idea of the invasion and are ready to sacrifice themselves. But rich guys, rich families, they can leave the Russian borders and continue good life in other countries.
Remember, sanctions only hurt poor people, not rich ones because the rich have good education and enough capital to keep a high standard of living. The majority of poor people don't have a good education, are easy to manipulate and brainwash.
P.S. Education is not meant to be a Ph.D. in electrical engineering, education is much more.

Economic sanction tool has been excessively used but it is an outdated idea and hardly works to produce targeted objectives, Iran is under economic sanction since decades but still surviving. I think economic sanction don't work successfully in oil producing countries like Iran and Russia. Economic sanctions worked for short time in the beging when value of Rouble value slumped but it is now even stronger than where it was before sanctions on the other hand economic sanctions have created shortage of crude oil and food all over the world which is hurting everybody.

Most of the countries have not developed to live without them. Germany is still buying gas from them and they indicate that they cant stop at the moment. Finland electricity was cut off by Russia itself when they are also planning to join NATO. They are forcing many countries to pay rubies and they are complying. They are the highest exporter of wheat as well, so definitely the world economy still relies on them. Now is sanctioning some names in USA from entering the country. So what are they playing as politics here? they are likely to continue

Of course, economic sanctions alone are not enough to deter Putin from invading Ukraine, it seems that Putin does not intend to stop, despite the Russian economy being affected by the sanctions, but this alone is not enough, especially since Russia has a strong economic card, which is Russian gas. This card is using it against the European Union and it can be a life card For the Russian economy, it is therefore unhelpful to rely on economic sanctions alone to stop Russia from invading.

The sanctions placed on Russia is in my opinion a case of indecision. Because how can one place sanctions on a country and still go ahead to buy oil from them? Is there a point? Is this not an example of grounding a child and later on giving permission to go out? Will sanctions alone stop Russia? Don't think so.

The gold standard is not a good idea because the price of gold is largely determined by non-market mechanisms. It seems like a better idea - an energy standard, because money is a kind of equivalent to life force.

What would happen if the Bank made one ruble equal to 1 gram of gold? I mean, all these European fuel companies buy Russian gas and paying in Rubles.

It seems that the Central Bank of Russia is no longer happy with the excessive strengthening of the ruble, and a whole series of weakening measures has not yet led to the desired result. The image effect of a strong ruble is good, but for an economy with a large trade surplus, this is not very beneficial. This afternoon, the dollar was traded on the Moscow Currency Exchange for 58 rubles, and it is not clear who and why is buying it at all, because the sanctions risks are very high.

I used to think that. However, it's become apparent over the last few months that his attack on Ukraine has been a monumental strategic misjudgement, coupled with bungling ineptitude on the ground. He's managed to put himself in a position where he can't possibly win, his forces are demoralised and experiencing huge losses, his population is suffering under sanctions, and he has united pretty much the entire world against him.

I don't think sanctions will end it, no. He's in way too far for that to stop him. Either he is offered some way to back down where he can still maintain some sort of facade of dignity, or else he gets "replaced" in an internal "reshuffle".

I am getting convinced everyday that sanctions alone cannot end this war. Vladimir Putin is a master strategist and this invasion has been militarily, economically and politically worked out. The current plea by David Beasley, head of the United Nations World Food Programme to Russian President Vladimir Putin to reopen Ukraine's Black Sea ports before a global calamity strikes is a clear indication that the world is really underestimating the economic capabilities of Russia. Russia is now requesting for a review of sanctions which the West would probably grant to stop a possible world food crisis. This is a clear proof that the capturing of the  port of Odessa and neighboring ports is because it would be used as a tool to invade sanctions. Maybe, there are still more sanction invading strategies that are unknown to the world. Kremlin would keep unveiling them in the future. They best strategy to end this war is compromise and dialogue because this war might last for years if fighting and sanctions continue.

Anybody who's been on the internet long enough to matter knows sanctions won't do a thing to affect the wealthy classes or Putin. They will cripple the livelihoods of ordinary, innocent civilian Russians.

For example, if Spotify blocks Russia, they'll just use VPN or modded APKs. TOR with bridges works well in a country which doesn't allow VPNs either.

You obviously know nothing about Ukrainian politics.  He is the first and the only president who united Russian and Ukrainian-speaking
Ukrainians behind their country, Ukraine.

That is why he is an existential threat to Putin's plans for annexing Ukraine.  Never mind that he is for democracy, EU, and NATO
memberships.

He has a vision for his country that many Russian Ukrainians want.  They don't want another Lukashenko or Putin ruling over THEIR country.

Watch videos of ordinary Russians standing unarmed in front of Putin's tanks and soldiers and tell them to go the fuck home.

Putin already lost this war on multiple fronts.  The only question is how much damage he will still cause before he is captured and/or executed.

I don't think nuclear strikes is on the table.  World War III seems like a bad idea to me, and certainly to Russia.  I also agree that Russia has been preparing for this for a long time, and is set to profit greatly from some of their decisions.  That being said, I don't think Russia expected the international community to stand so strongly with Ukraine.  The sanctions are far greater than I would have expected and more countries are taking part than I thought would be willing to stand up to Russia.  I have been impressed by the international response so far, and hope it continues.  Usually the United States is left standing alone in times like this, or our allies send a few troops and make a speech.  This time it seems everyone is on the same page and willing to put their relationship with Russia on the line to do what is right.  I think this is a good development, and likely one that constant criticism of the UN by a former US President helped to achieve. 

Putin has fortified himself well against economic sanctions imposed by the United States and the West. He has been preparing for this war for a long time. He says that according to everything he could face during this war, especially economic sanctions, Russia has so far been in a relatively good position in terms of economic and self-sufficiency, but As the war continues, its economy will surely be greatly damaged, and it will not be able to hold out for a very long time, but what if this actually happens, what will be Putin's reaction? Will Putin stop the war? Or will he go to the worst scenario, which is the threat of nuclear strikes on some NATO countries?

whats going on with you folks why can't you just seperate ukraine from Zelinsky and his corrupt leadership?

they better work each other now. the 3 as trading partners i think will already suffice. Chinese will eat just about anything even the caviars, i dont know if Indians would like it.  i truly believe Moody hates US and much as he hates UK and all others in EU for colonizing India. and India today is much of a bigger economy as well. but India also hates China.

"Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” - Mike Tyson

Nope. Putin already knew these would happen and he decided to invade Ukraine anyway, which means he don't care about any sanctions, boycotts or whatever the west is going to throw at him. Russia is a superpower and superpowers get what they want. The US is also a superpower.

In the end, Russia will get what they want or they will be no more.

It depends on how extreme the sanctions would be an who would not be following it. There's also going to be a delay before the effects become visible and I don't think the EU is gonna outright sanction all resources out of Russia. Are they seriously gonna cut off the gas while in winter?

We already know China has announced it would trade with Russia normally, I'd like to know if India is also going to follow this stance since this whole conflict don't threaten it (and it got nukes, just in case).

It depends on what those sanctions are and it's a dangerous balancing act. Clearly the Russian economy is in shambles but Putin isn't the one that faces the consequences, his citizens do. Why bother with sanctions? The risk/reward calculation - Economically isolate Russia and hope they can bend the knee and waive their army off of Ukraine. Any future Russian aggression is deterred and so less pressure on Eastern European countries of an invasion or geopolitical tension. But consider what sanctions actually do to the countries imposing these economic restrictions. Well, USD is really the only asset that should be analyzed here because the US economy is the largest, so whatever other countries decide to do will have a limited effect.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/03/russia-to-remove-dollar-assets-from-national-wealth-fund.html

Key points are as follows: Over 186 billion USD was cut from the Russian National Wealth Fund; Yuan is expected to compose 30 percent of assets. Russia and China have been circumventing SWIFT through their own financial intermediaries.

Russia was planning economic isolation from USD for a long time to avoid sanctions by reducing their USD asset holdings from the National Wealth Fund. They accomplish this by swapping out USD for Yuan in their reserves and also reducing the USD output of Russia/China trading. Under normal circumstances, Russia/China transactions would usually be conducted with USD because it works as the best universal currency (accepted everywhere by major banks, low inflation at the time, and sustainable - backed by a powerful government).

Now, USD no longer has any feasibility and sanctions will accelerate the abandonment of USD. When you begin attach politics to the currency, it encourages other avenues. USD inflation is high, and the freezing of Russian assets affiliated with USD sends a message to any holders of USD that their assets can be frozen instantaneously.

Anyways, sanctions seem to be working since Ruble's value continues to drop, but Russia still has taken steps to free themselves of US sanctions, so after it a while it can backfire. And really, it accelerates adoption of something like Bitcoin which are immune to asset freezes. Time will tell if it will stop Putin but my guess is it won't. He is willing to throw his citizens under the bus because he is aging and wants to accomplish something before he departs into irrelevancy.

Yet there's no news Putin's military loot the wealth of Ukraine, but who knows real hazards yet to come!
Putin clearly has his contingency plans, we've to wait more until things execute. Whether or not sanctions stop Russia, yet a few troubles currently here. Russia has shut its stock trade market to prevent further fall of Ruble. It's a sign that Russian central back take will all the essential move in order to prevent their economy. Safe Ruble from free falling matter most. But, Russian might be started convert their Ruble into BTC and alts in the course of time.

Wouldn't this sanction also force Putin to loot the wealth of Ukraine? If they are losing money because of the sanction, there is a motivation for Putin to also just raid and make money out of it after all there is money to be made. So far there was no report of it yet in the media.

On the crypto side of the story, BTC and altcoins are rising and if Russians already have BTC and altcoins, that means they are making money.

Sanctions alone are not enough to stop Russia's invasion of Ukraine. I know that this is a fairly complex issue, but if we look at the broad outline of the Russian invasion, it cannot be tolerated. This issue should be brought to the UN general assembly and vote on Russia and what should be imposed on them and also the President of Ukraine should cancel his intention to join NATO or the European Union.

Well, we can't say for sure... sanctions can be effective but not always certain to work. For a country as huge as Russia, with a very strong economy prior to this invasion, they only knew when they were going to attack, so there is a possibility that they may have made preparations for worst case scenarios as these sanctions. The best answer to this is that in a couple of days we will know if the sanctions are working.

The current sanctions are ineffective as long as Germany is buying gas and the US is buying oil, the impact will be minimal.

If they seized all Russian state and personal assets abroad and stopped ALL trade with Russia, closed airspace to Russian planes,
and closed all borders to Russians, this conflict would stop in days.

The US (Biden) has the power to end this conflict but it chose not to act.

The effect of the sanctions on Russia has started hitting its economy hard. The Russian ruble has lost 30% of its value trading at 100 to the dollar. Economists has warned that Russian economy could shrink by 5%.

But Putin has shown no sign of slowing down the invasion. His response was placing nuclear deterrent forces on high alert and continuing missile attack on key Ukrainian cities. It has also being rumored that Belarus can now be a base for nuclear weapons and its troops can invade Ukraine at anytime.

Putin's actions is showing the Russia is economically fortified or Russia is important to NATO and its Allies economically.

Do you think sanctions alone can stop Putin?