Topic: Ultimate Hloders only thread - do you have a dollar price in mind? (Read 2803 times)

Yes, long term it is bullish but how long that long term is depends on the development pace of tools to make handling (storage/transacting) bitcoins privately and securely convenient. The technically-competent wealthy are probably mostly already exposed to bitcoin but there is definitely still a lot of 'dumb' money who feel quite uncomfortable at the thought of having the power to be their own bank with a digital currency (yet will happily hand over millions to Panamanian lawyers because of a recommendation from a wealthy friend "'cause there are hundreds who are already doing it").

Bitcoin management tools need to reach that tipping point in the convenience stakes whereby a herd of wealthy people will happily take control of their own wealth and exit the fiat system "'cause there are hundreds who are already doing it". When that happens wealthy people will most definitely seek safe haven in bitcoin, in my opinion private wealth management represents the premiere use case in the long term. In the short to medium term, cross border transactions, niche internet commerce innovations, currency trading speculative activity and other weird/wonderful things you can only do with a digital money data type will drive interest.

Little know HLoDers fact, the coinbase address for Block #1, yes the first spendable bitcoin key ever created has the address

1HLoD9E4SDFFPDiYfNYnkBLQ85Y51J3Zb1

HLoD

let that sink in, are we really in a time loop here?

Why ? Because wealthy people will seek safe heavens more than ever and Bitcoin welcomes them as a reliable choice.

What do you think ?

I'm still digesting this news ... intentionally slowly. It is one of those moves that could have long term implications ... Larry (gold-trashing) Summers and Gavin Andresen getting in bed together just gives me the shivers as a first impression but it needs some pondering.

WU is just having a "me too" moment, I don't think they can gain anything from this in terms of materially changing their current technology infrastructure ... just street cred to be not seen as being left behind by their investors/owners.

marcus_of_augustus, what do you think about the latest investors in Barry Silbert’s DCG (WU and others) ?

I'm thinking of changing the poll now that we've got a big enough sample on this one to draw some conclusions.

It's actually really eye-opening, even though this poll is self-selecting for bitcoin afficianados being on this forum I would not have expected >95% are not selling until we are above $1000 !! That's pretty insane, (but I can agree with that sentiment). And I think the 2 votes for "Next $20 rise" are just trolls so that was my trap question to weed them out ... so in reality we have 1 person out of 53 that will sell for less than $1000.

And more amazingly, we have greater than 50% who are hodling for > $10,000 coin.

Hey keystroke, yeah I've noticed that elliptic curve plot avatar popping up as long as I can remember 

Did you have a link to this spreadsheet you mention here?

Good, this is the type of thread we need. I've been following your posts for a long time -- we registered our accounts within a day of each other back in 2011.

The 'Planning Bitcoin Withdrawals - Advanced' spreadsheet by Chainsaw is good for planning divestments over time as needed.

Could you elaborate more please

When the price exceeds $2K I will move 10% of my coins into physical gold. The reason for this is that I don't believe in keeping too much wealth in one asset class.

After that, the next price level at which I'd sell another 10% (of what's left) would be in the $10K range. With the strategy no matter how high BTC gets I will always own some. At the same time I won't die with a bunch of BTC that would only be spent by my heirs.

That's a great threat marcus!!
In terms of Bitcoin I'm in for something like this!!

That's a great threat marcus!!

Nobody can really give a good estimate on that because there's way too many variables.  For instance, the upswing always tends to overshoot, so even if you weren't optimistic and believed the price could only hold stable at $800, it would probably still reach 900-1000 for a while.  But once it broke $1000, the media would unload about 5 million Bitcoin stories that would FOMO it higher.  The second you break both old ATH and gold price, here comes more media stories and it happens all over again, then up to like $1400-1600 you go. 

There will obviously be some people shorting at $800, and there will obviously be people trying to short squeeze them there.  Anyone shorting there is pretty much an idiot since there's plenty of entities with 100 mil in the bank in Bitcoin that may or may not attempt to strongarm you at that point, so you might as well be throwing darts at a dartboard.  Never try to short a breakout trend.  God, shorters are idiots.

So yea, I figure there will likely be an attempted short squeeze to $1000 or more, and if BTC manages to break ATH, then all bets are off and you can get into just insane numbers.  For the most bearish scenarios, I think it will still go over 800.  It's just too hard to call when all you have to do is break old ATH for literally one nanosecond, either through the normal market or a short squeeze to put you into an entirely new ballgame.

The real question to ask yourself is, at what levels do you think the market would be overextended and you would want to temporarily dump at?  The answer to that question is, there would be no point to do so at 800. At 1000, the media is pumping it for you and you're in easy striking distance of ATH and insane FOMO, so still no point in selling anything.  If you hit 1200, well, at that point the press coverage is going to be so big it will be forcing central bankers to consider adding it to bank reserves again like so:  http://www.coindesk.com/barbados-central-bank/

All I can say is, keep holding unless you see a triple top that's far above $1200 - shout out to In-Q-Tel, Larry Summers, and the Chicoms who will be helping pump.

That's a beautiful dream, but at the rate technology is evolving and the world around us changing, Bitcoin could very well be a forgotten memory by then. I'm not saying so it will be, but seriously, the world will be a different place. Just something to think about...

For me, I'm holding till 2025-2030, and I know so well that I will retire in my mid-30s and enjoy life with my family.

When the price exceeds $2K I will move 10% of my coins into physical gold. The reason for this is that I don't believe in keeping too much wealth in one asset class.

After that, the next price level at which I'd sell another 10% (of what's left) would be in the $10K range. With the strategy no matter how high BTC gets I will always own some. At the same time I won't die with a bunch of BTC that would only be spent by my heirs.

so i will continue to buy and hold for at least 5 years or until bitcoin reaches the mass adoption stage. and the price i am expecting from that stage is around 3K-4K USD per bitcoin.

Nobody can really give a good estimate on that because there's way too many variables.  For instance, the upswing always tends to overshoot, so even if you weren't optimistic and believed the price could only hold stable at $800, it would probably still reach 900-1000 for a while.  But once it broke $1000, the media would unload about 5 million Bitcoin stories that would FOMO it higher.  The second you break both old ATH and gold price, here comes more media stories and it happens all over again, then up to like $1400-1600 you go. 

There will obviously be some people shorting at $800, and there will obviously be people trying to short squeeze them there.  Anyone shorting there is pretty much an idiot since there's plenty of entities with 100 mil in the bank in Bitcoin that may or may not attempt to strongarm you at that point, so you might as well be throwing darts at a dartboard.  Never try to short a breakout trend.  God, shorters are idiots.

So yea, I figure there will likely be an attempted short squeeze to $1000 or more, and if BTC manages to break ATH, then all bets are off and you can get into just insane numbers.  For the most bearish scenarios, I think it will still go over 800.  It's just too hard to call when all you have to do is break old ATH for literally one nanosecond, either through the normal market or a short squeeze to put you into an entirely new ballgame.

The real question to ask yourself is, at what levels do you think the market would be overextended and you would want to temporarily dump at?  The answer to that question is, there would be no point to do so at 800. At 1000, the media is pumping it for you and you're in easy striking distance of ATH and insane FOMO, so still no point in selling anything.  If you hit 1200, well, at that point the press coverage is going to be so big it will be forcing central bankers to consider adding it to bank reserves again like so:  http://www.coindesk.com/barbados-central-bank/

All I can say is, keep holding unless you see a triple top that's far above $1200 - shout out to In-Q-Tel, Larry Summers, and the Chicoms who will be helping pump.