I'll start imposing response-based analysis. By that I mean I'll monitor how much response I get from my analysis.
It's simply a way to determine whether it's worth my time writing, and your time reading.
Topic: Ultimate Lazy BTC/USD Price Prediction (Read 137 times)
26 January 2024
If BTC/USD closes above $39,800 on 26 Jan, this is a BUY signal.
Entry can either be:
SL at $36,750
TP#1 at R:R = 2 or $46,500
TP#2 is still unknown
If BTC/USD closes above $39,800 on 26 Jan, this is a BUY signal.
Entry can either be:
- At the close price on 26 Jan 2024
- At $37,500 but with the risk of missing out (but, recommended)
SL at $36,750
TP#1 at R:R = 2 or $46,500
TP#2 is still unknown
The dollar allocation solely depends on how much you want to allocate. I have no control over how much you decide to allocate.
This thread assumes no conflict of interest. By that I mean you and me are not big enough of a player to affect the market in a significant way.
It also does not affect you either whether I allocate 1% or 10% or 100% of my portfolio for the BTC/USD trade.
There is no promise that the analysis will be correct, so you get the analysis as is.
Winrate and RR are important. In the ideal world, you win 100% and it is optimal to throw 100% of your portfolio to trade every time.
However, that world is probably a pipe dream.
This thread assumes no conflict of interest. By that I mean you and me are not big enough of a player to affect the market in a significant way.
It also does not affect you either whether I allocate 1% or 10% or 100% of my portfolio for the BTC/USD trade.
There is no promise that the analysis will be correct, so you get the analysis as is.
Winrate and RR are important. In the ideal world, you win 100% and it is optimal to throw 100% of your portfolio to trade every time.
However, that world is probably a pipe dream.
The dollar allocation doesn't matter, I agree. Hence I suggested percentage of bankroll. It affects you, because it shows whether you are profitable or not. Anyone can show 80% win rate. Not anyone can show 1% profit over 1 year.
It's the same in gambling, I always think people get fooled by 80% win rate 'tipsters'. Anyone can bet 10 times on 1.01x outcome to get 90% win rate.
The ideal is not 100% portfolio on one bet lol. That is NOT the real world
My winrate from the past few years has been around 35-40%.
Daily Timeframe is a bit higher at 4x%.
R:R 3+
I do not claim higher winrate than this, so you can adjust your expectation as such.
At the end of the day, it's the ratio between R:R and winrate that pay
I say it before I say it again. Win rate is not important. Actual portfolio balance, with % growth or decline this is more valuable. You don't even need to reveal the amount, only percentage.
100% balance. 10 percent in Trade 1. Close at 5% profit means 100.5% balance.
I don't care if your win rat is 80% but overall % is low
That's what people need to decide if worth throwing BTC at you Good Luck!!
100% balance. 10 percent in Trade 1. Close at 5% profit means 100.5% balance.
I don't care if your win rat is 80% but overall % is low
That's what people need to decide if worth throwing BTC at you Good Luck!!The dollar allocation solely depends on how much you want to allocate. I have no control over how much you decide to allocate.
This thread assumes no conflict of interest. By that I mean you and me are not big enough of a player to affect the market in a significant way.
It also does not affect you either whether I allocate 1% or 10% or 100% of my portfolio for the BTC/USD trade.
There is no promise that the analysis will be correct, so you get the analysis as is.
Winrate and RR are important. In the ideal world, you win 100% and it is optimal to throw 100% of your portfolio to trade every time.
However, that world is probably a pipe dream.
Quote
Reading this, I believe you know what you are doing as my expected target after breaching $40243 (1D Fibo level of 38.2%) lower is $37,519 (current 1D's 50% Fibo level). Bitcoin is not in a good moment now as it is falling and might continue to do so for the rest of January, especially with the renewed bearish pattern seen on the weekly chart. I knew it would fall yesterday, the price actions on the weekly and daily chart prove that in addition to some strategies. As it is, Bitcoin might continue to be pressured for many reasons, and the ETF approval that backfired with the reduced willingness to buy which is partly due to the selling by Grayscale and some other factors will continue to make the market unappealing to buyers. We will be seeing enough of the sellers coming into play over time, regardless, if $37,519 holds, it might be the level at which the market will turn back and the bullish impact will be so strong if this happens.
though I do not incorporate any Fibo level, it seems like we have a similar analysis
Using news, I honestly cannot analyze and make prediction so I solely rely on price
The dollar allocation solely depends on how much you want to allocate. I have no control over how much you decide to allocate.
This thread assumes no conflict of interest. By that I mean you and me are not big enough of a player to affect the market in a significant way.
It also does not affect you either whether I allocate 1% or 10% or 100% of my portfolio for the BTC/USD trade.
There is no promise that the analysis will be correct, so you get the analysis as is.
Winrate and RR are important. In the ideal world, you win 100% and it is optimal to throw 100% of your portfolio to trade every time.
However, that world is probably a pipe dream.
This thread assumes no conflict of interest. By that I mean you and me are not big enough of a player to affect the market in a significant way.
It also does not affect you either whether I allocate 1% or 10% or 100% of my portfolio for the BTC/USD trade.
There is no promise that the analysis will be correct, so you get the analysis as is.
Winrate and RR are important. In the ideal world, you win 100% and it is optimal to throw 100% of your portfolio to trade every time.
However, that world is probably a pipe dream.
The dollar allocation doesn't matter, I agree. Hence I suggested percentage of bankroll. It affects you, because it shows whether you are profitable or not. Anyone can show 80% win rate. Not anyone can show 1% profit over 1 year.
It's the same in gambling, I always think people get fooled by 80% win rate 'tipsters'. Anyone can bet 10 times on 1.01x outcome to get 90% win rate.
The ideal is not 100% portfolio on one bet lol. That is NOT the real world
I appreciate your effort to do this and I know how some other optimistic users have tried to do that also but have not continued either because they realized they didn't get predictions right or they couldn't continue because of time. It is time consuming to do this actually because you have a life offline. I believe most of what we have as prediction thread come alive during the bitcoin bull run because it is almost certain that price will appreciate.
I say it before I say it again. Win rate is not important. Actual portfolio balance, with % growth or decline this is more valuable. You don't even need to reveal the amount, only percentage.
100% balance. 10 percent in Trade 1. Close at 5% profit means 100.5% balance.
I don't care if your win rat is 80% but overall % is low That's what people need to decide if worth throwing BTC at you Good Luck!!
100% balance. 10 percent in Trade 1. Close at 5% profit means 100.5% balance.
I don't care if your win rat is 80% but overall % is low
That's what people need to decide if worth throwing BTC at you Good Luck!! 
23 January 2024
BTC/USD rushes toward $37,450. This can be either be
No trade signal to buy or sell. No position of strength.
The hardest thing to do is waiting.
Estimate to wait till around first to second week of Feb 2024
There is a difference between how the price will move, and the trade signal.
Above is the price movement prediction, not a trade signal.
Sometimes I can predict roughly how the price will move, but for that to become a trade signal you also need a position of strength (a point where you have an advantage)
In this case, there is none.
Reading this, I believe you know what you are doing as my expected target after breaching $40243 (1D Fibo level of 38.2%) lower is $37,519 (current 1D's 50% Fibo level). Bitcoin is not in a good moment now as it is falling and might continue to do so for the rest of January, especially with the renewed bearish pattern seen on the weekly chart. I knew it would fall yesterday, the price actions on the weekly and daily chart prove that in addition to some strategies. As it is, Bitcoin might continue to be pressured for many reasons, and the ETF approval that backfired with the reduced willingness to buy which is partly due to the selling by Grayscale and some other factors will continue to make the market unappealing to buyers. We will be seeing enough of the sellers coming into play over time, regardless, if $37,519 holds, it might be the level at which the market will turn back and the bullish impact will be so strong if this happens. BTC/USD rushes toward $37,450. This can be either be
- a strong momentum in one go
- a sweep toward $43,500 first then rush downward
No trade signal to buy or sell. No position of strength.
The hardest thing to do is waiting.
Estimate to wait till around first to second week of Feb 2024
There is a difference between how the price will move, and the trade signal.
Above is the price movement prediction, not a trade signal.
Sometimes I can predict roughly how the price will move, but for that to become a trade signal you also need a position of strength (a point where you have an advantage)
In this case, there is none.
I commend the honesty that you know you won't be 100% correct. There are other analysis posts out there that always overanalyze things say that they have most of their predictions 100% correct when in fact they sometimes get it wrong, yet they still defend their positions by using old predictions that went right.
Following this thread just to see how it develops. I am a lazy trader too and bite sized analysis makes sense to me, at least.
Following this thread just to see how it develops. I am a lazy trader too and bite sized analysis makes sense to me, at least.
It is nice to see this. But let us see if it will be fine. I will be following your prediction to know how good you are. Let us know if the prediction is about scalping, day trading or swing trading. That is very important.
There was a guy that made this kind of thread last year, but he could not go more than one or two predictions after he failed. Although his analyses seemed good but I think he used too much leverage on altcoins that made him failed as fast as possible.
This bitcoin analysis would be good and also it would be good if the leverage is low. I am waiting to see your first analysis and see how it is.
There was a guy that made this kind of thread last year, but he could not go more than one or two predictions after he failed. Although his analyses seemed good but I think he used too much leverage on altcoins that made him failed as fast as possible.
This bitcoin analysis would be good and also it would be good if the leverage is low. I am waiting to see your first analysis and see how it is.
.
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