I've seen blocks mined within 30 seconds of each other... and other times when it has been 2 hours. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Mempool size is generally not really a factor in determining how long your confirmation takes, their isn't "one mempool to rule them all" anyway... each node has their own. It's more the fee rate that you use. Granted, the number of unconfirmed transactions will often influence the fee rates that people are using... but even with 100K+ unconfirmed transactions, you can still almost guarantee next block confirmation... if you use an "appropriate" fee rate