If history is any indication, the COVID-19 pandemic may have also proven to be a turning point for cryptocurrency markets. Prominent economic historian Niall Ferguson told online publication Barron's that pandemics are accelerators of financial history.
"We've seen that in just the same way that the use of coins as money was accelerated by the Black Death. Payments in kind were yielding to a cash economy in Europe, and this was accelerated in the 1340s," Ferguson said, adding that the COVID-19 pandemic has hastened the acceptance of Bitcoin as a "quasi-digital gold" among investors.
Caution Is Key
The glib utterances of analysts and Bitcoin proponents are not without their flaws, however. For example, Bloomberg analysts say that one of the reasons for Bitcoin's attraction lies in its lack of correlation to mainstream markets. But the recent whipsaw of crypto market movement has occurred in tandem with those of mainstream markets, which reached a record high the same time as Bitcoin surpassed its 2017 peak.
It is important to remember that trading volumes and liquidity for cryptocurrency markets are a fraction of those for mainstream markets. There are fewer players, less transparency, and minimal regulation. And so, all price targets and analysis fall within the realm of conjectures and can change with a single large trade.
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Adoption as a Means of Payment
Another reason for Bitcoin's price appreciation is its growing adoption as a payment method. Recently, PayPal (PYPL) announced that it would soon allow its users and merchants to buy, sell, hold, and accept Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as a form of payment.
This news pushed Bitcoin's price higher immediately. PayPal has nearly 350 million users who will now have the ability to easily buy, store, and use Bitcoin. PayPal also has well over 20 million active merchants who can now accept the currency.
Aside from PayPal, this has further implications. PayPal also owns the widely popular payment app, Venmo. Venmo has more than 40 million active accounts, making the accessibility to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies even more significant.
While PayPal and Venmo are newer to crypto, there are a host of other applications that allow its users to buy, sell, and hold. Popular competitors to PayPal and Venmo, Square (SQ) and CashApp, also accept cryptocurrencies making the audience to Bitcoin even wider.
Institutional Investment
As discussed above, there is a growing narrative of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. In the current societal and economic climate there is a growing incentive to hold less cash and be hedged against intense market swings.
Recently, a trend started where publicly traded companies were beginning to convert cash in their treasuries over to Bitcoin as a more sound store-of-value. Most notably, MicroStrategy, a business analytics company, converted $425 million worth of cash in its treasury to Bitcoin. Shortly after the payments company Square made a $50 million purchase.
Since then, a number of companies have followed suit. The confidence that these companies and their investors have in Bitcoin has given increased merit to the concept of Bitcoin as a store-of-value and safe-haven asset.
'Digital assets' as the most attractive investment option
34% of global users chose 'digital currency' as the most attractive long-term investment option, 'stock' & 'real estate' placed 2nd & 3rd. Especially, 'digital assets' has strengthened its position as a favorable investment option as Bitcoin value has risen nearly 140% compared to the beginning of the year, and big financial institutions have begun to participate in the massive investment.
Halving and the Stock-To-Flow Model:
Perhaps the most important reasons for the rise in Bitcoin's price are two attributes that are inherent in its design.
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first: there is only 21 million Bitcoin that will ever exist. There will be no more and no less and this number will always stay static. This makes bitcoin more scarce than anything that has come before it. Other scarce assets are not 100% finite and in some cases, they can be synthetically manufactured.
The second is a process coded into Bitcoin called the halving. Essentially, Bitcoin has its own built-in escrow mechanism where Bitcoin is released and given to miners as a reward for processing transactions. This reward is cut in half every four years.
By doing so, Bitcoin's rate of inflation is reduced by half each halving and its stock-to-flow ratio is doubled each halving. This process continues every four years until all Bitcoin in this escrow mechanism is released and in circulation. From that point on Bitcoin in circulation will be capped at 21 million. As of the time of writing, there are 18,534,818 in circulation.
So far, Bitcoin's price has followed its stock-to-flow ratio very closely and if it were to continue on this trajectory Bitcoin's value could be somewhere around $100,000 in late 2021.
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Digital assets will gain currency as real money within one year
53% of global users said that it would take one year for digital assets to gain currency as money in our daily life. Such results reflect high expectations for a newly transforming financial system, not to mention Paypal's digital asset service launch and the introduction of government-driven digital currencies such as China's DCEP.
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As 2020 is coming to an end and a new year is quickly approaching, Dove Wallet looks back at the digital asset market with our global user surveys.
66% support digital asset taxation as it becomes the norm
Amid continuously arising questions and confusion surrounding digital assets taxation, 66% of global users supported it, interpreted as reflections of expectations for full-fledged regulation & legalization. On the contrary, 20% of users have dissented with their disapproval, expressed it was premature, and needed a new digital asset tax framework.
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I do hear and see your point about wealth redistribution socialism, etc. and we appreciate you speaking your mind, will help with marketing. We are actually digital anarchists, nothing pisses off the liberals more than making peasants rich. I wish we could share our experiences with venture capital, these people will finance dog food over technology to help grow wealth. Its truly amazing, the way we have been treated by traditional money investors sillicon valley. crypto version is live now and fiat the positive news is State and National Lotteries are in negotiations for software.
One VC lady says to me why would you want poor people to gain wealth? They will mismanage it, better to give that money to one person they build a business. I was shocked, I said so if you are born into poverty, your grand kids should be stuck in it as well.
we need a better system to create wealth for those who likely will never have wealth. Basically unless you went to Harvard, you are gonna stay poor.
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'Asia' will be the most digital asset-beneficiary region
25% of global users believe Asia will benefit most from the fast-growing digital assets market. Following very close behind were Europe & Latin America with 24%, saying they are also hotly-anticipated & promising regions. Its result tends to show that many agree that troubled regions with economic & political problems could exploit the benefits of digital assets more readily. It is also uncontroversial that Asia is the most hopeful region since it has emerged as the pronounced leader in the digital assets market, playing essential roles with significant influence.
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'Security' as the most crucial factor
While new types of digital assets finance services have been churned out over the year, 36% of global users voted for 'security' as the most critical factor to consider for crypto users in selecting a digital asset exchange or wallet service. Its result seems to reflect the prevalent distrust of digital asset platforms.
For these parts - totally agree. But unfortunately as years pass, the number of shitcoins just keep increasing. Still very surprised to see that someone truly invests in new ICOs/IEOs/etc. (I don't mean the speculators & P&D groups). Until the market is cleared, probably many more years will pass, as even exit-scam projects' tokens still might be tradable, even though with collapsed liquidity. Just like some people knowingly what they do, invest in ponzis & pyramids with the thoughts that they are the smartest ones and can do what others couldn't. Until then, I think derivatives could be beneficial to that market as their main purpose is price reveleance, information discovery (spot price will react slower than derivative), and risk transfer from those who don't want it to the risk seekers, which can improve liquidity and opportunities to exit illiquid shitcoins.
Crypto Daily: Bitcoin Is Down, But Will Rise Further
The Bitcoin price dropped by 5% over the past day and is currently at $18,200. Trading volume increased at $10 billion to $35 billion. Following Bitcoin, the remainder of the crypto market fell, including highly capitalized altcoins.
As we predicted yesterday, Bitcoin followed the second scenario: On the 4-hour timeframe, it broke through the lower border of Triangulum and settled there. then , we saw a pointy decline to $18,000.
Now let’s find out what to expect within the coming days:
Image for post
The chart came out of the symmetrical triangle downwards, but this doesn't mean a trend change. the present low remains much above the previous one, which was on November 27th. additionally , the worth is during a global ascending triangle and is now forming a 3rd wave.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the MACD has been during a downtrend for an extended time. additionally , the lower moving average has crossed back over the upper moving average and therefore the gap is widening.
Stochastic dropped significantly and reached the oversold zone on the 4-hour timeframe. this means that there'll soon be a price reversal and Bitcoin will start to rise again. Moreover, on the daily timeframe, this indicator also unloaded, which may give additional strength for growth.
All of this fits well into the ascending triangle pattern. presumably , the worth will reach the upper limit within the $19,500 — $20,000 range. this might happen before the top of in the week . counting on whether the worth breaks through the historical maximum, we'll be ready to judge the further trend of Bitcoin.
Why Is Bitcoin's Price Rising?
Election uncertainty and comments from central banks have emboldened investors.
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By LUKE CONWAY
Updated Nov 5, 2020
Will the Bitcoin Price Rally Last This Time?
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By RAKESH SHARMA
Updated Dec 7, 2020
The recent rally in Bitcoin price (BTCUSD) has left investors with an important question: Will the rally last?
The quicksilver nature of cryptocurrency markets makes it difficult to answer that question with clarity. Bitcoin's 2017 rally transmuted into a prolonged slump less than a year later. While analysts and commentators have stepped up with optimistic predictions, it is far from certain whether Bitcoin price will continue to increase.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Bitcoin analysts and proponents have predicted price targets of $50,000 for the cryptocurrency next year.
Some commentators also say that the pandemic might have proved to be a turning point for Bitcoin's acceptance as a "quasi-digital gold" for investors.
A Trillion Dollar Target?
The risky underpinnings of cryptocurrency markets will appeal to traders and investors in 2021, according to analysts from Bloomberg. "A risk-off decline like the 1Q could return Bitcoin towards the $10,000 support level in 2021, but we believe the path of least resistance remains higher," the analysts wrote. In simple words, investors will continue to embrace the risk and price volatility inherent in Bitcoin investing in 2021.
Bloomberg analysts have predicted a price target of $50,000 for Bitcoin, implying a $1 trillion market cap for the cryptocurrency. They cite increased demand for the cryptocurrency, mainstream adoption and interest, and diminished supply as Bitcoin reaches its 21 million supply target as reasons for their estimated price.
BTIG analyst Julian Emanuel has estimated a similar figure for the cryptocurrency's price next year. But his reasoning is different. Emanuel compared Bitcoin's price to the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), a market cap-weighted index consisting of 103 non-financial companies at Nasdaq. The index reached a peak valuation during the dotcom bubble and crashed soon after before beginning another gradual ascent.
"It took NDX 14 years to rise above its parabolic 'blowoff top,' then six years to rise a further 150%. Bitcoin appears poised to exceed the 2017 parabolic 'blowoff top' in a mere three years. Should Bitcoin's speed of ascent keep pace with the past three years and the degree of the rally approximate that of NDX, $50,000 per Bitcoin is a reasonable year-end 2021 price target," Emanuel wrote.
A New Future or a False Rally Redux?
Momentum can be a powerful price propellant. The actions of a single investor can induce others, who don't know much or any better, to follow them into a trade.
The price target predictions for Bitcoin bring back memories of 2017, when equally ambitious (and in some cases outlandish) predictions were made for Bitcoin's future. Back then, the cryptocurrency's astronomical prices fell as quickly as they had risen, leaving a trail of disappointed investors and shuttered investment firms.
But the conditions were different. Asian investors and retail traders were reported to have driven Bitcoin's previous price increase. They quickly moved in and out of trades, booked profits, and abandoned crypto markets not soon afterward. This move sucked out much-needed liquidity from crypto markets and crashed asset prices.
According to crypto-forensics firm Chainalysis, American investors driving the rally the rally this time around. Institutional firms and hedge funds, interested in parking their funds for the long term, are also beginning to pour funds into the asset class. In the long term, such liquidity should help propel future price increases because it strengthens the market and tamps down the intense volatility that has characterized crypto markets.