Topic: U.S Economy (Read 215 times)

I got really curious, regarding “exporting inflation to the whole world” and “making the world suffer”.

Can you describe these processes in simple words and with verifiable facts, let's take as a starting point the moment when the Fed printed 1 trillion new dollars. Please describe the economic and financial processes that follow, how they generate the inflation of other currencies and what exactly leads to the “suffering of the world”. Very interesting, looking forward to it

Isn’t it true that Trump’s goal was to prioritize job opportunities for his own people? During his term, the employment rate might rise since migrants would no longer be given as many work opportunities. If the issue is unemployment, it’s probably because there are fewer opportunities due to an already large workforce, which might also fall under underemployment - possibly.

Aside from creating jobs, the easiest solution for him seems to be deporting migrants, which is something Trump emphasized during his campaign.

Trump says he will use military for deportations to fullest extent of law
Trump says he won’t ‘do business’ with countries that refuse to take back migrants: ‘I want them out’

There's a thing called "frictional unemployed". Some companies fire employees, while others hire new employees. Frictional unemployment is pretty short-term and it can increase or decrease, when certain conditions are met. Maybe the USA is having an increased rate of frictional unemployment right now. Everything will go back to normal, after the Trumponomics starts working and the Federal Reserve cuts the interest rates once again. The problem is the upcoming US inflation, which is going to caused by the reduced import of cheap goods from China.

Such people are just indoctrinated by years and years of work by US military and trillions of dollars worth of propaganda. The first part you mentioned is not something people even know. Most of them don't even understand how every day that their government continues using the dollar they are also importing the US inflation into their own homes.
But things are changing though. This is one of the main things that the New World Order is changing through what we all know as "dedollarisation".

The US has been doing this for the last 100 years, they create inflation and export it to the world and make the world suffer for them for what they caused. But what is more surprising is that many people like these things, they praise what America does and see America as their savior. They are willing to reject or deny anything that threatens US dominance while the goal of other countries and organizations is to help the world escape the US dictatorship that has been created over the past 100 years. This makes me feel like they enjoy being oppressed by the US and are willing to suffer the inflationary consequences for the US  .

Honestly USA is a nation for the rich, so the poverty isn't really considered as an issue. Unemployed in Iran could be a good example to compare with the USA if you want to make sure USA looks good, but unemployed in Swiss, in UK, in Italy, in France, in Germany, in Austria, in Spain, in whatever decent nation, don't get me started on those nordics up there, those are all much much much better than USA of course.

In fact, so much so that, you do not have to be even unemployed, if you are employed but for a very cheap salary, you can't even afford your daily meds, you can't take your insulin for a long time, now it's capped I think, or at least I hope so, but other stuff are still dangerous.

Did you know, they charge you for ambulance ride? So if you are in urgent need, like lets say in car crash, and ambulance takes you to hospital urgently for an operation, that ambulance costs you money, very weird. Healthcare, rents, education, even food these days, everything is expensive there, so unemployed is doing terrible at the moment, even with welfare. HOWEVER, no nation in the entire world could come even remotely close if you have a bit of money, then USA is the greatest nation of all time, proper of everything, it's a heaven for you.

Core problem in USA is inflation but as they export this problem to the world its far less of a problem then it would be otherwise.  Inflation produced by new money is somebody elses problem but also no less of a problem overall just packaged, transported and distributed around the world courtesy of the broken bretton woods global reserve system.

   Nobody wants to miss out on trade and have a strong currency vs US dollar as it would isolate them but also the trojan horse that comes with matching US dollar exchange rate so closely is the inflation imported.   As USA receives new dollars first, they see far less of the problem first hand then otherwise.

I would say I rather (and my a huge mile) to be unemployed in Spain then employed at USA to be fair,  let alone be unemployed in the USA. People in USA will never understand the life in the European continent until they visit it and live there for a while, and I do not mean like 5 day vacation or something, I do not mean going sightseeing, I mean like literally work and live there for a year or two, that's when things start to make more sense.

There are literally jokes about how Europeans work less, made by Americans, they think that's a bad thing. So when it comes to unemployment, yeah I would take USA over Iran without a doubt, but I would take most (emphasis on most, not Balkans) European nations, like Spain, France, Italy, Germany, Norway, Sweden, these are all better to be unemployed than USA, without a doubt. If we are looking at happiness, by looking at USA, I could easily say that you guys do not look happy AT ALL, in fact most of you look quite angry to be fair.

If job data is so important:
% of people mining,
% of people claiming but working under the radar.

America is the richest country in the world and America's economy is far ahead of other countries. However, besides America, there are many other countries in the world whose economy is very strong, but the economy of those countries cannot be compared with the economy of developing countries, because if developing countries are to catch up, a lot depends on the economy of these countries. If these countries do not provide loans to developing countries or close trade routes, then developing countries will be severely affected economically.

If you assume that prices in the US are high for basic products, you are very much mistaken. I worked in the US around 2000 (about 2 years, in the IT sector). Back then, grocery chain prices were surprisingly low to me. Now you can find the prices of groceries in the public domain... Compare the prices of basic consumer products at H-E-B, Aldi, Market Basket, Wegmans Food Markets, ... and many others - and let's evaluate prices rather than assume that workers in the US will meet high grocery prices !

---

Do you seriously think that sanctions and pariah status with dim prospects is a reason for you to be proud ?!!  
In the USSR, a country of slaves and people without rights, there was no unemployment at all, according to “official sources of information”. In Nazi Germany - unemployment was also very low and it opposed “the whole capitalist world, together with its faithful friend - the communist USSR” (though until 1941, until Germany started a “special military operation” in the USSR )). ). Any totalitarian country will justify all its problems, and say “ but over there, it's even worse, but ours is not bad, and even good” ) Be proud, enjoy it
Compare it with the opportunities of an average citizen of Iran and let it be the same Spain, where you think unemployment is high ... And at the same time, tell us about the social assistance received by “the unfortunate US citizen and the happiest citizens of Iran”
You are really funny now more than ever

I love how you are comparing the US economy with with over 7 million unemployed and the biggest GDP that also claims to have the strongest economy.
With economy of Iran, a country that went through a revolution then a war (invasion) with the largest number of sanctions for the longest period (past 4 decades) that is also currently at war with the biggest terrorist organization on the planet named Israel.

But lets look at some official statistics and see if "Iran has nothing but unemployment".

• US unemployment rate is currently 4.2% according to Department of Labor
• Iran unemployment rate is currently 7.5% according to Statistical Centre of Iran

That doesn't seem high to me, definitely not "nothing but unemployment". It definitely doesn't look high when you look at European Union statistics. France for example has unemployment rate is 7.6% and Spain with 11.2%. I wonder if there are 6000+ sanctions on either one of these two
A bunch of others in the EU have higher unemployment rates than Iran as well. Like Sweden, Greece, Finland, ...

The Fed holds another FOMC meeting on December 18th where they are expected to cut rates by 25 bps. They are trying their best to keep the economy afloat but I think they are fighting a losing battle. There is a fine like between holding rates high for too long & cutting too fast, both have catastrophic effects on the economy. I think we get a blow off top in everything 2025 & then a long overdue big crash, recession in 2026.

The US jobs data has been a mixed bag, while over 700,000 jobs were added recently, smaller businesses struggle with tighter credit, a swing of 1.5 million job loss in household surveys. Unemployment is still historically low, even though it rose a little, and the pressures of inflation are abating, with core CPI approaching pre pandemic levels. Such trends defy fears of stagflation, with the economy looking more like it is adjusting rather than imploding. Instead of assuming an impending crisis, these indications should be read as signs of a transformation that high interest rates and the changing nature of business bring. The need is to move with change rather than focus on worst case scenarios.

https://www.cmegroup.com/insights/economic-research/2024/are-us-inflation-and-employment-rising-or-falling.html

From someone outside of the US, we often idolize/romanticize the life there is in foreign countries. Yes, their salary might high but so does their costs of living that it is still difficult to actually be wealthy. I do think that this is something a lot of us would not be able to understand unless we experience it for ourselves. When you are able to get a blue collar job in the US, you will already be earning so much more like that than any other kind of job in my country. Still, they could experience difficulty with how high the prices are in their country. But if someone in the US is unable to find a job, we could just expect how much more difficult it would be for them to get back on their feet. It is hard to pinpoint only one cause because there are many factors to consider. Lack of available jobs, people aiming for better opportunities, lack of education/skill sets and many more.
Hopefully for them. The American dream is still alive in the minds of many and it would be pleasing to see for it to actually allow american citizens to fulfill their dreams.

Yes, there is an unemployment problem in the US, it's silly to deny it. For example, there is data like this:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate

There are many reasons for unemployment, and most of them are similar to problems in other countries. But... as always - nuances:)
I think it is clear to you that it is difficult to compare an unemployed person in the US with an unemployed person in Iran, for example. The former has good social assistance, social programs. The latter has nothing but unemployment. Yes, the unemployed in the US do not live in separate mansions, but they have benefits, social services, rations and much more. Yes, that doesn't take away the core of the problem. The problem will be addressed by a new administration that aims to rebuild the US economy, which will lead to, among other things, lower unemployment. Lowering taxes, bringing manufacturing back to the US, fighting illegal immigration and many other solutions are aimed at revitalizing the US economy. just watch it !

The core of US economic problems is a lot more complicated than that, and raw data is not how you can analyze it.

For example take the employment and unemployment rates. It is raw data and it will not tell you anything when they rise or fall. Imagine this scenario: US economy enters recession and is facing inflation as well. The corporations start mass firing their employees which means increased unemployment. But those people who were for instance being paid $7000 a month won't go home and sit on the couch until they die. Instead they'll start seeking a new job. But everyone everywhere is firing people, meaning they aren't hiring. So these people now how to find a less paying job like becoming an Uber driver! You suddenly see a CEO for instance is driving a taxi to make a living therefore the employment rate increases but the income of that family was decreased significantly.

This is the complexity of economy which you can't find out by looking at raw data.

Now this scenario actually helps bring down inflation because people who no longer have money will not buy anything either which means demand shrinks therefore price can come down but only slightly.
At the same time it significantly worsens the recession because there is far less demand...

This means inflation that is still high has other reasons.

• Energy prices being high
• supply chain disruption
• increased cost of transport and insurance due to global conflicts
• government printing dollar nonstop
• world dumping the dollar slowly and also lack of same demand for US treasury bonds like before

are some of the reasons for it.

that's just my 2 cents...

The core of U.S problem is jobs data. It's okay to see less jobs added when interest rates are higher. But now the Fed is loosening up its policy and cutting rates. Yet unemployment rates continue to rise. Investors are patiently anticipating the UE rate to drop back below 4%, but that is a big 'if'. CPI can't keep rising if unemployment is going to rise or else it means stagflation.