Topic: US Inflation is 7.1%. Bitcoin price broke $18,000. What's next? (Read 210 times)

I thought this was a reaction to FED policy as it was going to test on that higher Dollar index anyway.    Its failed to hold a weekly average or anything close to a higher hold, next area to watch is about 16.2k.  Lows of late November but the problem being we have now probably broken our trend of higher lows on the daily chart and very possibly we test the 15.5k bigger area, once again people will have to worry about price testing every price in the teens if we dont hold that larger low.   I'd much prefer we arrest the fall and start back upwards or just sideways, BTC most often has the energy to bounce off the highest walls it can find so lower then this still.

It seems like it's not done yet going to the bottom or maybe the speculators were right, it will go dip down to $15k or $12k. This is giving a FUD news that most weak hands will try to get out of the market. Well, it's their lost once they sell their investment someone will definitely buy it cheap.

It's somehow good in the market if those weak hands remove their self from the market so it will continue to move without them. What I'm worried about is if this bearish market continue for another whole year next year, that would be suck but anyway it's also a good opportunity to buy cheaper coin.

Yeah broke $18k but unfortunately, there are news about Binance and it's BNB and it's proof of reserves.

The result?

We just go back to $16,900 as of this time, not really sure what to say about the market sentiments right now, but obviously, we are in the edge and every negative news will bring a big impact in the market.

This is good news because the number was lower than expected but it seems Bitcoin is already going red right now. The $18,000 was very quick. Was that really caused by the 7.1% inflation news or was that simply another day for Bitcoin's rise and fall? Although the fed's decision may affect Bitcoin's price in one way or another, I think there are still many other factors that play more important roles in the price of Bitcoin. The current hearings on the collapse of FTX is still pulling the price of Bitcoin down.

As long as there isn't another major crypto protocol/company collapse then yeah we've probably seen the bottom. Honestly if Luna had never collapsed the bottom probably would have been the $33k Bitcoin hit in January. Bitcoin was high $30,000s when Luna collapsed and that made Bitcoin crash all the way through the Jan bottom and down to $25k. Then a series of other collapses, hopefully ending in the FTX (and well BlockFi as well but the market didn't much care about that one), caused Bitcoin to break $25k and bottom and find a 5 months bottom at $17.5k which looked like it would definitely hold before FTX collapsed and we saw $15.5k. As long as there isn't another crypto collapse to knock Bitcoin below the bottom then yeah we've seen the bottom.

Bitcoin is now back above the old bottom that lasted all summer and half the Fall before FTX killed it.

US inflation falling is great for Bitcoin because the main thing keeping Bitcoin down after each crypto collapse has knocked the price lower, is that investors are scared of doing anything while the Fed is raising interest rates (of course interest rates have no effect on Bitcoin, as opposed to how they affect companies, but people don't understand Bitcoin so they are just playing it like a tech stock even though if people were educated on Bitcoin the interest rates wouldn't affect the Bitcoin market at all lol). If inflation continues dropping each month and is like under 5% by the Spring we could see the Fed just hold the interest rate steady and stop increasing it. This would allow investors to not be afraid to invest in things and we'd probably see Bitcoin start shooting up pretty quickly.

But since Fed will probably raise rates in at least the next meeting in a month and a half and the meeting after that in March, I think Bitcoin will just tread water in the high teens or low 20s through the winter. By April or May we could see Bitcoin finally break out of this bottom range and move past $25k and start heading up for good again. Again, assuming no more big crypto bankruptcies or a global recession.

So as to what is next, probably stay above the FTX bottom of $15k/$16k, but stay around $17k/18k/19k for a while.

I expect 2023 to be a good year for Bitcoin, could definitely see it back around $40k in a year, but most of that rise will probably occur second half of next year. But second half of 2023 and first half of 2024 we could see some real solid market growth. And then of course that'll continue after that with the halving occuring.

Inflation is probably 'bullish' for BTC at least nominally, the only reason to think otherwise is the idea that FED raises rates when it notices the damage its been causing and hence we wait a while but ultimately that Dollar is so leaky is probably going to lead to further BTC rises long term.
  Not that I wish for instability and failure, inflation, deflation, excessive deficit fiscal overspend, political nonsense and interference but the problem its going to happen anyway and we have to decide does the FED have the puppet strings for everything.  Sadly no, they are human like most other constructs we can discuss and so in the face of a natural phenomena such as a national or international economy even there isnt anyone who can stop the inevitable unfolding.
  I much prefer to go on natural dynamics, if one side of an equation or fraction diminishes I expect the other side to balance that out.   Inflation and deflation both help to make people poorer though neither is consistent but anyhow I think BTC comes out the other side and a price pullback was always happening for some kind of reason.

I was really curious about the small rally today just hours before the announcement as it did not really make sense
-if it was caused by the inflation numbers and FOMO it would have been a continuous and larger push yesterday
-if some would have bet on just 0.25% why did they again act just before the announcement, why not start yesterday like the stocks rally
-the sell-off after the announcement, was actually anyone surprised about the numbers, enough to dump coins??

Bitcoin is starting to get way too correlated to the stock market for my liking, I knew the connection is there but those mirror episodes are just spoiling all the fun.

I know that inflation not being as high as expected is a great deal, and looking at the gas prices and how it dropped that means that long term the inflation may drop even further. However, people were not making enough money to begin with, so they would probably not be able to invest just a bit longer until it settles down a bit. I have absolutely no idea if it will be easy or hard or anything, I just have no idea at all.

I feel like the best thing to do right now would be making sure that we are ready, and that is the most important thing. I know that we shouldn't really be doing something if we are not aware of the situation, and I am not making any big deals just yet.

the Fed is not going to do a negative -0.25

but they could drop the increase from +0.75 to +0.25 if they do we get a boost.

they did telegraph +0.50 my guess they do this and we float around 18.5-19.5K

It would be wrong to explain the Bitcoin price by only looking at the US economic data. The FED makes a statement and the price action begins. Yes, positive data has been announced and those who expected a decline for Bitcoin were wrong. On the contrary, i think that Bitcoin has its own pricing corridor and the degree of influence by events is limited. I feel that for 2023, Bitcoin price will see above 30k and bulls will run towards the end of the year. It is not investment advice.

I also can't entirely agree with someone not using DCA and waiting for bitcoin to drop to $12k, but I'm afraid I also have to disagree with you that if bitcoin hits $20k, we won't stand any chance of falling back again. The bear market is still ongoing, and the bitcoin halving is more than 500 days away from us, so I still believe bitcoin can still fall further after this short-term bull run.
Falling CPI has pushed up the bitcoin price, and if the Fed lowers rates today, bitcoin could hit $20,000, but that's not enough to say that bull season has arrived.

This is not the first time something like this is happening, and Bitcoin may have a long way to go before any steady recovery the current Bitcoin price pump is not something that is sustainable and if the FED keeps intervening, in the economic recovery control against inflation then the price of Bitcoin will be held down for sometime before we have a sustainable Bitcoin price pump that could sustain above $20,000 Bitcoin price. Bitcoin is going to retain it present a resistant benchmark of $16,000 to $17,000 price for the next few months ahead, most especially now that the impact of all the negativity resulting from FTX bankruptcy and other ugly events will force the price to stay down for a while before recovery will come.

Believe or not; as per usual cycle of bitcoin market, the bearish trend is about to end and we are going to enter a new year which is highly expected to be a 'different' year than what we had in last 12 months, more positive news from everywhere will arrive and drive bitcoin market bullish. This had happened in the past for no reasons. I mean for example, even if a big exchange gets a hack, that would not impact bitcoin prices deeply (same may affect bitcoin prices heavily in bearish trend).

In the first quarter of 2019, after the big bearish year of 2018, bitcoin recovered from ~$4k to ~$15k levels in less than 3 to 4 months of time. I am expecting similar rapid recovery in next 3 months which might be up to 80% of current ATH. Yeah, history repeats itself.

Fed rates directly affect bitcoin price.

Why risk money in BTC when fed rates are high.

That said, fed rate is doing a 0.50 or a 0.25 either one won't help btc or any crypto coin.

Until inflation goes under 6% and we get a zero or a -0.25

BTC and crypto is going nowhere.

This is not to mention Ripple lawsuit and Issues with Binance along with FTX bankruptcy and SBF arrest.

Now a whole other set of factors
 1) Ukraine vs Russia
 2) Is Putin fighting cancer and dying
 3) Is Putin fighting dementia
 4) Does Putin get poisoned

Ie  No more war and no more Putin = Monster rally.

Best case is Putin wakes up dead Russia retreats whack a few Generals and blames everything on dead Putin and dead generals.

The mess calms down.

Fed declares inflation over and pumps the market with a ton of cash.

BTC moons over 100 k by this summer.

If global economic conditions have improved, of course the price of Bitcoin will increase again. It seems that the price of Bitcoin has increased by 3% from before. Maybe this has something to do with reduced inflation in the US. But we will see until the end of the year, because Bitcoin will dump again after the holidays and the new year. In general, the initial start will be in April if we look at previous years.

This is relative good news, without a doubt it is a good thing that the inflation is not as high as it was before, but it is still above 7% which is not a small number at all, so we need to calm down as there is still a long road ahead of us before the economy reaches some kind of equilibrium, also the crash of the FTX exchange and the consequences that it can bring are still there, it is impossible to know how many exchanges and other businesses are just holding on by a thread and could crash as well at any moment.

I think people are starting to feel like the market has hit bottom and are trying to get their bags filled before the ride upward. With signs starting to appear the the worst of inflation is behind us, there’s a chance that we may avoid a 2008 style recession. When things turn upward, it’s possible the market could explode as people might want to take custody of their BTC on the next bull run, which would keep clowns like SBF from holding the market down.

US inflation is less than expected (7.1%), so the market reacted due to the decline in the value of the dollar,
I believe that this impact on Bitcoin price will only be temporary due to this positive news which will be short-lived.

The market condition is mostly bearish and the negative news is much more than the positive news, also there are more bad repercussions coming to the market due to the recent incidents that have not yet shown their results.

All of this makes me feel that this improvement is temporary and we will go back down again.

The market needs a longer period to absorb the impact of the accumulated positive events in order to begin to recover and then return to its healthy state.

Feeling really sad for the people, who waited for Bitcoins to go down till 12k usd. They missed the best time to buy the Bitcoins, and now will cry all over the forum. As said earlier there is no perfect time to buy Bitcoins. If you are able to get Bitcoins in price less than 20k usd, then buy as many as you can. Those who become too greedy, they will now suffer. Nevertheless, if Bitcoin touches 20k usd by the end of this year, then definitely we will see something big from Bitcoins. Let’s hope for the best.

Me neither.

This is a short term result that gives a boost to the markets. The U.S. stock market also rises as a consequence, but just as it rises any macroeconomic data next week can push it down, both the stock market and Bitcoin.

I would like to see news exclusive to the Bitcoin that are positive to promote a healthy push from the strong foundations that we have now without so much leverage or so much garbage, but so far there are not, and without them I do not expect significant or sustained price increases in the medium term.

I don't think it will be that easy, Bitcoin has gone up last time also when inflation went down from 8.2% to 7.7% but it's going to be a slow recovery in my opinion, we might have pumps but retrace back till everything becomes more predictable and the FED will stop intervening, I doubt a true bull season will start this year.
But, if we have a surprise tomorrow when and it won't be the half-point everyone predicts we might see it touching 20k, or in case it's more than that, then it will be a non-event end of the year and we'll be stuck below that for a few months.

And on top of that, we have more problems, FTX, audits that are not 100% legit, god knows how many other companies are on the verge of bankruptcy, and so on.

Today, we have a very good new about US inflation is dropped to 7.1% , lowest since December 2021, while few months back we even heard the Inflation even surpassed 9%.
With that being said, Bitcoin also pumped to $18,000, so whats next?

So was the bottom at $15,500 and now we are going to start new leg of bitcoin bullish graph?