Topic: US media frenzy hasn't even begun yet (Read 4682 times)

While the term has negative connotations, all a "bubble" denotes is simply a period of expansion followed by a rapid contraction.  One can determine that somewhat objectively by simply looking at a graph.

If this doesn't look like a rapid contraction to anyone, they need their eyes or their head examined:



I certainly wouldn't mind putting "bubble" in quotes, because the price of BTC generally settles far above where it was when the "bubble" started, but still well below the peak price, and generally slowly increases in price after that before another cycle.

I disagree. It WAS a runaway speculative bubble that burst. But you're right, Bitcoin is seriously undervalued. It's just that when growth is too fast, we have to correct to a more reasonable level before continuing to grow.

very good said.

Google wasn't very helpful, was it?

I should probably figure out what bear trap and bull trap mean.

Shhhh! I'm not done buying yet.

epic

It's not about the price but about growth (either positive or negative). Bitcoin's growth never stopped but expanded exponentially. "The Market is always wrong" when it comes to putting fair valuations.

The fluctuations in Bitcoin price are irrelevant as the Bitcoin ecosystem kept growing exponentially. The growth of the ecosystem itself never experienced a sudden drop like that price drop from 2xx to 5x.  

Many offer the "tulip mania" example when it comes to bubbles but thing is there never was a real demand to justify that tulip price, unlike with Bitcoin.

A real bubble is created when price becomes totally disconnected from the reality on the ground. Bitcoin is currently undervalued thus talking about bubbles is retarded.

Those are scary statements you are making. Please say the opposite to appease me.

So the price has never, ever gone down.  It's just been a straight line upward at all times.  Okay.  Got that.

Nice name.

You're wrong. There hasn't been any "contraction" in Bitcoin. There has been only exponential growth so far.

I despised him even back when that book came out.  He actually uncovered the CCC's actions because of his obsession with a $0.75 accounting discrepancy, that ultimately led to the evidence of the intrusions.  Okay, I have to admit that level of attention to detail does display a certain brilliance, but not the sort of brilliance anyone would want at a party.  And despite a great deal of technical skill, he so totally failed to get the Internet and its culture even then, back in the late '80s, that he was basically the symbol of everything I hated.  (It didn't help that I was on the wrong side of the law myself at that time and he was the self-appointed king of Internet cops.)

So when he said that abjectly idiotic shit in Newsweek, I was really not at all surprised.  That was exactly the kind of lame shit he was practically addicted to saying.  He didn't understand Internet culture, so he despised it.  What a surprise.  He still doesn't.

Nice. That was written by Clifford Stoll too, http://boingboing.net/2010/02/26/curmudgeony-essay-on.html#comment-723356 - he wrote The Cuckoo's Egg which I enjoyed reading ~10 years ago. Details how he tracked a hacker in the 80s who broke into one of the national labs.

It is when it's followed by a crash. The market behavior we have seen pretty much fits the textbook definition.

Definition of 'Bubble'

1. An economic cycle characterized by rapid expansion followed by a contraction.

If bitcoin survives, the general trend will likely be up as people and businesses come on board.  The whole concept is very new to the vast majority of people, also known as the "herd".  The herd is skittish because they are unsure.  They bolt at the slightest provocation.  Over time the wild swings will likely smooth out much as most stable currencies.

IMHO, if bitcoin lasts then even buying at this most recent top will eventually pay off.

One strategy is to set aside X-number of dollars every week (an amount you can afford to loose, NOT your lunch money) and exchange it for whatever bitcoin the going rate allows.  This averages everything out.  In the long run good returns result while greatly simplifying efforts.

By "long run" I don't mean a week or a month or two.  Several years and more.  One day you may be quite pleased with the results.

Great article about the internet indeed

All I know is the folks who bought at the top of the $32 bubble are in pretty good shape right now.

Will the folks who bought at the top of the $266 bubble be in good shape in a year or two? Well, I'm not as confident as Men's Wearhouse... but I am strongly convinced of it.

They will understand that this is a totally different beast, it has never existed in human history: A money with fixed limited supply but have a global instant reach.

And their projection of the price development will also have to readjust: A 100% rise / year against fiat money is a minimal performance, 10x rise is a normal performance, and 100x rise in a year when in good mood  

I think $1000 is possible if it break through ATH. All it takes is just sellers hold their coins to send the price to moon, and many traders here indeed will do so when the time comes

Thanks for this! Almost reads like a parody...certainly helps with being able to laugh at todays smug fools

great article. should be included in any textbook, page 1

my strategy (and i think its best for most people) is just buy. When price drops - buy even more to average the price. And you have a life and don't need to sit here 24h/day watching graphs and pulling your hairs out of head when you have another missed trade.

Yes.  It is better to buy "high" and not regret it then to hope the price goes lower and lose the opportunity.  That is my thinking anyways.

Bitcoin seems to have a mind of it's own.  It is tricky to predict it's movement.  If we are confident that the price is going to rise to higher levels at any point then just buy and hold.  That seems like the lowest risk move of all.  Granted, it would be nice to take advantage of the peaks and valleys but it is not as easy to do as it sounds.

perhaps. but it's important to note that these exponential gains will not last forever. the question is, at what magnitude? you say $70 is a rounding error in a few years... we will see.

Unfortunately many of these people were calling it overpriced when it was $15, and some still believe that we are heading back down to those levels. You could laugh at them now, but they will still be trumpeting the coming collapse if bitcoin hits $1000, or $10000. Actually, even more so if it hits those prices. At the end of the day what will hurt most, is that they were here, part of this community, when they had a chance to be among the earliest adopters and instead they blew their opportunity.

Suppose it had just gone up 65% in two weeks...to $20. I think people either see the long-term potential or they don't. If they see it, they know the difference between $13 and $20 (or $130 and $200) is going to look like a rounding error in a few years, as we now view the difference between $0.06 and $0.10.

I think I do understand what you are saying. You are suggesting that the risk at this point might not be worth the reward. There appear to be plenty willing to take the other side of that bet. It could be $1000 in two weeks, and anyone buying today @ $200 is a genius. It could also be @ $50, and those who held their $$$ were geniuses. Only time will tell whether you or they have a better assessment of the risk/reward equation.

that's not what i was saying. any investment involves risk. the point is one should do a risk/reward analysis before buying -- especially if expecting short-term gains, as most green investors do -- instead of simply listening to this "buy buy buy" after bitcoin is up like 60% in 2.5 weeks.

If you wait until it is safe you will make nothing. Risk = reward.

Having bought some on the last upward swing I can speak with experience.  Just buy and hold and ride out the waves.  We are all still so early in this.  I don't think most people "get it" on this board yet.

Skip ahead about a year and we will be laughing that we thought $200 was overpriced.

But of course I always temper any advise to friends that they could "lose it all" and that it is "risky" and I tell them about how I have had ups and downs.  It is just part of the fun of it all.

if that's the advice you give, you ought to be careful to really emphasize the short-term risk of buying at this price. it's easy to become a bagholder, just waiting to break even, following a rally like this. i am not advising anyone to buy until we level out, wherever that is.

When I hear the talking heads talk about bitcoin, all I hear is this from Newsweek 1995:

The Internet? Bah!
Hype alert: Why cyberspace isn’t, and will never be, nirvana

After two decades online, I’m perplexed. It’s not that I haven’t had a gas of a good time on the Internet. I’ve met great people and even caught a hacker or two. But today, I’m uneasy about this most trendy and oversold community. Visionaries see a future of telecommuting workers, interactive libraries and multimedia classrooms. They speak of electronic town meetings and virtual communities. Commerce and business will shift from offices and malls to networks and modems. And the freedom of digital networks will make government more democratic.Baloney.

Do our computer pundits lack all common sense? The truth in no online database will replace your daily newspaper, no CD-ROM can take the place of a competent teacher and no computer network will change the way government works.

Consider today’s online world. The Usenet, a worldwide bulletin board, allows anyone to post messages across the nation. Your word gets out, leapfrogging editors and publishers. Every voice can be heard cheaply and instantly. The result? Every voice is heard. The cacophany more closely resembles citizens band radio, complete with handles, harrasment, and anonymous threats. When most everyone shouts, few listen. How about electronic publishing? Try reading a book on disc. At best, it’s an unpleasant chore: the myopic glow of a clunky computer replaces the friendly pages of a book. And you can’t tote that laptop to the beach. Yet Nicholas Negroponte, director of the MIT Media Lab, predicts that we’ll soon buy books and newspapers straight over the Intenet. Uh, sure.

What the Internet hucksters won’t tell you is tht the Internet is one big ocean of unedited data, without any pretense of completeness. Lacking editors, reviewers or critics, the Internet has become a wasteland of unfiltered data. You don’t know what to ignore and what’s worth reading. Logged onto the World Wide Web, I hunt for the date of the Battle of Trafalgar. Hundreds of files show up, and it takes 15 minutes to unravel them–one’s a biography written by an eighth grader, the second is a computer game that doesn’t work and the third is an image of a London monument. None answers my question, and my search is periodically interrupted by messages like, “Too many connectios, try again later.”

Won’t the Internet be useful in governing? Internet addicts clamor for government reports. But when Andy Spano ran for county executive in Westchester County, N.Y., he put every press release and position paper onto a bulletin board. In that affluent county, with plenty of computer companies, how many voters logged in? Fewer than 30. Not a good omen.

Point and click:Then there are those pushing computers into schools. We’re told that multimedia will make schoolwork easy and fun. Students will happily learn from animated characters while taught by expertly tailored software.Who needs teachers when you’ve got computer-aided education? Bah. These expensive toys are difficult to use in classrooms and require extensive teacher training. Sure, kids love videogames–but think of your own experience: can you recall even one educational filmstrip of decades past? I’ll bet you remember the two or three great teachers who made a difference in your life.

Then there’s cyberbusiness. We’re promised instant catalog shopping–just point and click for great deals. We’ll order airline tickets over the network, make restaurant reservations and negotiate sales contracts. Stores will become obselete. So how come my local mall does more business in an afternoon than the entire Internet handles in a month? Even if there were a trustworthy way to send money over the Internet–which there isn’t–the network is missing a most essential ingredient of capitalism: salespeople.

What’s missing from this electronic wonderland? Human contact. Discount the fawning techno-burble about virtual communities. Computers and networks isolate us from one another. A network chat line is a limp substitute for meeting friends over coffee. No interactive multimedia display comes close to the excitement of a live concert. And who’d prefer cybersex to the real thing? While the Internet beckons brightly, seductively flashing an icon of knowledge-as-power, this nonplace lures us to surrender our time on earth. A poor substitute it is, this virtual reality where frustration is legion and where–in the holy names of Education and Progress–important aspects of human interactions are relentlessly devalued.

I don't know, they 'll have to get creative: "beanie babies", "monopoly money", "somebody buy my own version of bitcoin for 3 million dollars?", "bitcon", "shitcoin" and "buttcoin" are already taken.

Guess we'll find out soon enough  

I have money waiting for the next drop out, or for the next long term plateau....
although the chinese growth may make me regret me decision in the coming weeks.

from what I can see this rally is being pulled along by chinese speculation, and why shouldnt it.  If bitcoins are left to flourish in china it will fix a lot of the regulatory woes of a market that could conceivably pull bitcoins up to the 10000 dollar mark.

of course if the chinese decide its not in there interest.....

ill have my money waiting

Amazing! Please someobody start a business selling tulips for BTC  

I don't know.  I actually told a friend about Bitcoin this week that I had not mentioned it to.  I think it has shown great resilience after the SR situation and it is now on the upswing.  I just tell them that the price is rising and that it could crash at any point but that it will most likely bounce back up and go even higher!

If we are still early adopters (which I think is proven that we still are) it is a great time to buy Bitcoin, even at $200!

I like tulips.  I will plant a bunch in my yard because I have plenty of money to do so thanks to Bitcoin. 

I agree.  It gets so old to hear the same thing over and over.  Hopefully this time they come up with something new at least. 

I hate it when they mention the tulips.  Makes em feel so smug and smart, while it requires no critical thinking whatsoever.

they should have jumped in days ago. still holding here, but i'm not advising anyone to buy now, no way (no one i care about, anyway, lol)

I hear where you're coming from, but those sorts of comment never pissed me off. I'd just think 'lol alright mate, this is where the party is but you don't have to join in if you don't want to. Come back in a few years'

This time around hopefully they are feeling deep regret for not buying any Bitcoin.  They would still be smart to jump in.  They will still probably make fun of it though.

I always love the idiots who comment on BTC articles on the various news sites.  Talking trash.  Calling it Ponzi.  Referencing Tulips.  Calling all of us fools.

Those people aren't so vocal anymore.  I've noticed how its fairly quiet in the comments area now.

I feel like calling those people out and asking if they'd like my foot in their mouth as well, or if their own is sufficent?

Those people pissed me off big time.  I want to rub their faces in it....

Not really.  If the last two high water marks are any indication, the next will be well over 266, and when it "crashes," it will be to something well over $100.

Because you are in the wrong topic.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3387508

Fail,  msft would be up about 20 percent...a year. That's no bubble.

20 percent in 3 days....

This forum is full of cheap dilettantes who don't understand the meaning of the word "bubble" and throw it around with the ease of taking a quick piss.

Just have a look at the stock of Microsoft or Google or 3D Systems and notice the growth they've experienced.

Do you know where price of Microsoft stock should be hadn't been for all the stock splits?

http://mashable.com/2010/07/17/microsoft-facts/ This was 2010 info where MSFT was $23/share. Price now is much higher.

So please take that bubble retarded mediocre talk somewhere else. Mainstream media uses this BS "bubble" a lot to describe Bitcoin. I don't need to hear same BS idiocy of infantile twats on this forum also.

Growth is not synonymous with bubble!

Why am I being censored??? My "bubble pops" post has been deleted and no notifications!

At least the press isn't giving us all the "Bubble" hype that happened last time.  I think it is better this way.  Perhaps when the price gets over $266 we will start hearing news about another bubble.

It would seem to me that if they keep saying that it is a bubble and the bubble keeps bouncing back that the press, and others on this board, will eventually realize that Bitcoin is more stable and is going to keep going up.  Sure it will drop down at times but it will come back even stronger the next time.

Going into another giant price run-up only 6 months after the last one will really indicate to people that "even if it looks like it's rising too fast, and even if it looks like it's crashing to zero, it's really only going higher." That should have been what people were thinking earlier this year, since there was 2011 to look back on and it was far bigger than the 2013 action, both upward and downward, but it had been two years so people forgot. This time it'll be much harder to forget.

People will get the idea that it really is here to stay and they cannot lose all their investment on speculative capitulation alone. That is a key fear that is now gone, perhaps for good. Of course a problem with the protocol, etc. could send the value to zero, but speculation alone won't.

one word. BUBBLES.

the same thing happened in April 2013.

Then Bitcoin will look legitimate in the eyes of a lot of people. And only then the new bubble begins.

What happens when the 3rd round of US media frenzy arrives (June 2011 and April 2013 were the first two) as bitcoin approaches its all-time high in USD?

I'd say that the old blood will be very nervous with bitcoin at 266.