Topic: US national bitcoin reserve fund....? (Read 452 times)

not 'as a reserve'.. but instead invest x% of the reserve in other assets.. US gov already invests in other assets they dont control, such as other nations bonds, other nations natural resources

Thank you for bringing this up, at a point, I thought I was the only one who sees things beyond the selfish outlook of people, especially those outlooks that are not just feasible.

First, how possible is it for a country like the US to accept a decentralised asset as a reserve? The US I know likes to associate with what they can control, but unfortunately, Bitcoin is not one of them. Even Trump who has heated the space can't unilaterally do that, it must pass through enough political debates and Congress must pass it first, which I know will die on arrival because such a view is not a kind that aligns with the US vision. I wonder what will continue to happen to the USD if other countries follow the path (which I know they will). The US is smarter than that!

ok lets play it out as if the 2025 BIS rules were implemented in 2023(btc price ~$25k/btc)

so US fed reserve has $250bill in reserves and allowed upto 5% of instable crypto(btc)
so thats $12.5bill allowed as btc, meaning they could have bought/obtained 500,000btc

this would mean to not breach the BIS limits:
by march 2023 they would need to sell some
so imagine they dropped 100,000k to allow a buffer for the price to get to $31,250 before needing to act again
by october 2023 they would need to sell some
so imagine they dropped 100,000k to allow a buffer for the price to get to $41,666 before needing to act again
by december 2023 they would need to sell some
so imagine they dropped 100,000k to allow a buffer for the price to get to $62,500 before needing to act again

so that alone would have been a 1 year buy up and drop of 500k btc -> 200k btc, where there would be 3 sell offs within that year of a large lump

but on the flip side, the gov is redistributing the coin and holding less coin as the price increases

and if played out to now where price is $90k/btc. the us fed reserve would only be allowed 125k btc to allow a $100k price buffer

 

Maybe more better for US government not to rush their decision to make bitcoin as their global reserve. They should study every possibilities at least 1 year then consult their plan to many concern institution or people so that they can get right inputs that can help make their reserve plan to became more effective.

Since if they rush just like that and use the tax payers money then maybe they might encounter a lot of problems especially if they see a massive correction which is a normal occurrence on bitcoin.

Its really a great plan but we also need to consider the implication of their plans since if they didn't get it right then maybe the government will hate bitcoin if they didn't get what they expect from it. Proper planning is important to make everything work according to what they like to happen.

I don't think it's entirely BS per se-- I just feel even if it's happening, it may not be just about the same proportion in this article or anywhere else...

I dunno who TF Satoshi was, but his/their intentions aren't as concealed as his/their identity is... There's a possibility that the new revolutionary store in value would bid a higher price than this one.
I don't know for a fact if the US government would certainly get 5% as this might just be a disclaimer (correct me if I'm wrong), but I do know that everyone else would certainly follow suit.
This is just gonna get the whole thing fucked!!! Volatility is one open but secret rule that has kept Bitcoin above every damned currency.
The moment this becomes a political affair and is weaponized against another county's economy, with alot of politically affiliated rules, it's gonna FAIL!
Bitcoin = freedom!

Yes, you are right or it is not right for the government to enter any business on its own it will not be right because when the government finds a system to invest in its own business then it will be for itself. The government of a country never has a chance to look at itself alone because its work is about the country and the people of the country. The government will always see everything that is beneficial to its country as a profit for its investment this is right but it will not be right for it to invest alone in any business field.

Despite having funds they are not able to invest because they haven't been able to trust BTC till now. If they had understood that there is trust in BTC then maybe they would not have kept their funds like this they would have invested them. Maybe they are waiting for something more positive towards BTC if they see something more positive about Bitcoin then maybe they can be expected to move towards investment.

I just saw this link from a post on CMC, and I swear I hope April Fools' Day has come twice this year, because using taxpayers' dollars to fund bitcoin purchases is just downright irresponsible on the government's part.  Trump might be pro-bitcoin and that's great and all, but what would happen if his administration set a fixed price for it, much like gold many years ago when it was worth exactly $20/Oz? 

Think that couldn't happen?  All of you people saying this is a great plan better put on your critical thinking caps or at least realize that bitcoin and governments should not mix.  I'm not saying there shouldn't ever be any regulations or the like, but as far as a superpower country owning a lot of bitcoin....what could go wrong?

Eventually, it’s what El-Salvador have been doing in a couple of years now and it’s been very controversial, haven’t raised some issues of its own especially during the down times when Bitcoin was bearish. The difference here could be that, the El-Salvadorans used it as legal tender which would be opposed to what US government would be proposing.
Using it for some reserve and that’ll be investment to use in settling whatever debt and rescue the economy maybe.

I read somewhere here, how this can not work and yeah, it goes against everything Bitcoin stands for. Bitcoin wasn’t created for the purpose of having to rescue economies but to enable p2p transactions and as such, having to view it for a honeypot where they just invest with the intent of taking profit in a decade or 2 decades to save an economy they severe by perpetual borrowing and not enough revenue generation doesn’t work.

The US owes at least a budget deficit of $2 trillion annually according to the article above and Bitcoin’s market cap is only about $1.79 trillion in 15 years. How could that be rescuing the later. It’s as risky as proposed I would say. Government don’t have to underscore the process of revenue generation within its nation state and they would do fine not viewing Bitcoin for some economy rescuer. US is a large economy!

The US senator lead by Senator Cynthia Lummis is working this to happen this is interesting article explain about it https://dig.watch/updates/us-senate-plans-bitcoin-reserve-under-trump also this one https://cryptobriefing.com/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-us/

So if they can pass that law and Trump will sign it which possibly it might really happen then imagine another huge impact it can give to bitcoin.

Provably they will not put everything in bitcoin, but rather they would just separate some funds to use for their investment. I guess they provably do some study with this since for sure they have lots of economic advisers working for them. So lets just see if their decision to make bitcoin as their global reserve would really bring something great for their country.

Maybe other country can afford to risk now or they are still skeptical that's why they are still away and not thinking about bitcoin for now. But for sure everything will follow in future if there's more positive effect it can bring to the country adopt it.

It is beyond insane to believe that you will repay all the debt by buying and selling bitcoin. Let's run some numbers.

- Bitcoin market cap: $1.8T.
- US debt: $36T.

This means that to repay the debt, Bitcoin would have to do a 20x and, somehow, the US government would end up with all the bitcoin, and find a seller (country states) to exchange it for their debt. Such a scenario would also entail completely dismantling the Federal Reserve, which, realistically speaking, is just impossible.

And they don't have $36T to buy all the bitcoin to begin with. That's the reason they're $36T in debt.  

The artice, in my opinion, writes the obvious.
The U.S will eventually buy Bitcoin officially. This is de-facto.
Now, whether they will use it to repay debt, yeah, this is risky, unless they have a long repayment horizon. Like really long...
The real question is... Will the U.S decide to transition to a bitcoin standard, from the current FIAT standard?

The difference between the two actions is unimaginably great.

Buying Bitcoin at a national level would:
1. Increase bitcoin's exchange price.
2. Give a general financial signal that the U.S (one of the strongest economies) trust Bitcoin.

Transitioning to a Bitcoin standard would essentially change the world... I can't even describe the changes in a post.

I hope my point was clearly made.

Yeah, it wasn't Peter who have thought of this idea first. I'm not sure if a politician has already put forward such a proposal, but this possibility has already been discussed before, at least the part that the Social Security fund be used to buy Bitcoin.

I'm partly of the idea that government shouldn't enter into the business of investing. Every penny that the government has should be spent. Whatever the government has should be used to serve and invest in its people. It isn't their business to make money. It's their business to look after the welfare of the people.

However, many countries have investment funds, sovereign funds, wealth funds, or whatever you call it. If they have such, why can't they indeed invest in Bitcoin?

Whatever Bitcoin stands for doesn't matter, does it? After all, it doesn't have a mechanism that prevents the government from investing into it.

Although this sounds really exciting I am not sure that this is going to happen. At least not as fast as we might hope/believe despite the talks from the Trump camp of introducing a bitcoin reserve fund. But let's see what happens, exciting times non the less.

That is stupid.  It is stupid to think Bitcoin would help in any way strictly with the repayment of the U S Debt too.  It is as if they were gambling Bitcoin to try and win the Jackpot.  But instead of retiring, the end goal is to repay the Debt.

It does sound very Bullish even if that is the only reason they would buy Bitcoin for.  It means they Trust Bitcoin so much that they think it is going to help clear the Debts of one of the strongest countries.  But the country deciding to sell Gold to buy Bitcoin sounds plain stupid.  They could both be Reserves, but Gold is pretty much obligatory in my strict opinion.

I think it’s pretty awesome that they are thinking about this strategic fund but today I read somewhere that the senator was suggesting we sell gold to buy Bitcoin? Like no let’s not do that keep the gold just print more money and buy Bitcoin 😂. Do both. Idk if that’s fact or fiction or what will happen but it’s definitely bullish if this keeps up the way it’s going!

I feel like my country would too.  We always follow every thing The United States does no matter how stupid it is.  I suppose a bunch of other countries would follow blindly if it worked well with The United States.  Particularly if a significant move of Assets toward Bitcoin would become worth hundreds of percent within years.  It would significantly impact their holdings in a positive way.  And that is definitely something to follow.

for those mentioning to not read yahoo finance.. well yes they mostly dont provide references in article, and yes never just blind faith beleive media.. but when it doesnt provide references to check, you cn always google certain keywords to see if you can find references yourself to back up or debunk media

the "5% of" story is kinda backed up by references.. BUT from the BIS guidelines of limits it tells a different story to what the 5% is of.  it seems the BIS is saying that a central bank can only have 5% of its fiat capital being held as crypto.. not that a central bank can hold 5% of a cryptos entire supply

First of all, Yahoo Finance is not a reliable source for the veracity of some topics. That particular article is from a third party, which pays to appear there on that portal, but that doesn't matter, since it may be a reliable source, but this one is not, you yourself mentioned it. So, in my case I had not heard about this analyst (or website), so I simply ignore the 2 minutes of reading that the article mentions.

There are various more reliable sources (all of which should be verified) that deal with the topic, with references that can be verified. It is really very questionable their opinion (the article) on the topic that if the United States buys 5%, Russia and China would start buying 10%, when you read those percentage values ​​in the "speech" of any serious analyst, he is simply not even speculating, he is selling smoke, and then on those comments a perspective is created between half truths and lies.

Man... don't read articles from yahoo.finance that don't have sources like reuters, bloomberg...etc.

banks doing ETF and ETN dont actually hold crypto. its shares of a fund manager(trust) which had collateralised the crypto.
EG bank of america investing in blackrocks bitcoin ETF is where BoA own shares of blackrocks trust which has blackrock valuing its trust in X btc based on coin held by coinbase in blackrocks name.. in short BoA wont hold crypto when holding blackrocks shares.. so thats a separate debate to this topic of banks direct holding of crypto

The banks has the "etf" and the "etn" and they have policies. Some trades it it and offers that service. And some stick to what known for having intrinsic value. It's more about values nowadays.


I plan to get so rich they will have to look me up. Cheers.

Btw. How come you don't talk about Tyson and Jake Paul? That came out as a disgrace or what?

You let it hang loose.

edited for clarification and adding additional quotes/references
if you read reports from the BIS(bank of international settlements*) you will read that for a couple years now the BIS has been drafting regulations that would allow central banks to hold crypto for use of international reserve swaps. the BIS has suggested a 2% of capital to be in instable crypto like bitcoin and a higher single digit % in stablecoins, however central banks has been lobbying for a 5% holding in instable crypto like bitcoin,

https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d545.htm (initial draft 2022) where the regulation would take effect by jan 2025

https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d580.pdf (finalised 2024) where the regulation would take effect by jan 2026
(agreed 5% of total capital being group2 crypto)
group 1: tokenised traditional assets + stablecoins
group 2: unstable unbacked crypto like bitcoin


*

Transfer of cash via regulated channels would help the smile. That is where it's at now. Besides making maximum security. Even if it's not registered as such. Anti laundry teams (The bimbo office. Bosses daughter! Don't get in trouble!). Tax on FIFO incitements. You name it.

Investors see if they can siphon to stocks without looking stupid. 15 minutes delay and front-run.

You have to pay for premium to get real-time data. Bottom line.

Cheers. 4.6% Vol. Pilsner. The new bottleneck is delayed data.

Easy to have it done on paper than having the reality outplay especially in a globe with geopolitical contention what makes you all think that those other countries will want to take the bait in buying bitcoin as country's reserve just because the USA have done so?  

I envisag a different scenerio that is possible to happen which is; other countries may consider the risk of the  US dumping the market since at some point  the US will want to take profit to service  their debt as bitcoin price increases. That idea alone my may be discouraging for many countries especially for her rivals.

I tell you a thing or two about  pop singers that can't be around. And apostles spreading the gospel? "It's woke to bring up Satoshi". See an apostle would never say that. To save the day. Undisputable.

Peter Schiff doesn't sound like bitcoin is something useful enough except for the purpose of manipulations, the whole article is all about how the US government can manipulate bitcoin to their own benefits and either dump it to crash if possible. The negativity towards bitcoin in his opinion is quite alarming and it's totally against what bitcoin stands for and for sure a true bitcoiner would never want something close to this even though bitcoin might moon if this is executed but are we still safe with bitcoin? Of course NO, Everything Satoshi desire would be in jeopardy.

What if you get busted for not knowing the rules if you try to sell out of US national treasure? You be the troublemaker. The elephant in the porcelain shop.

Just saying.

That tweet sounds like something I've heard before.  Didn't some politician make a proposal years ago for buying bitcoin in order to fix the Social Security problem that's inevitably going to happen? 

Whatever the case may be, any country buying bitcoin for any purpose (with taxpayers' dollars, I remind you) is extremely risky--and no matter how big a fan you or I may be of bitcoin, I don't think governments ought to be dabbling in it.  And not just because of the risk; it goes against everything bitcoin stands for.  I'm curious as to whether this story is going to be followed up on.

So some senator wants to buy 1.05 Million BTC (5% of the total supply) to reserve them to get loan and pay back the loans of US. AFAIK Satoshi have 1.1 million BTC and most of the companies in US like BR, MS and all the other combined acquired more than these figures and if we combine the total amount of BTC seized from many project under the possession of US are in billions.

Considering the amount of BTC are in USA they surely are the most adopted countries in the world and I don't think any other country could compete with them now as they are on the top and they own most of the BTC if combined. Another thing is them acquiring these much BTC will surely pump the price but when they will pay their debts back the price will dumb too. It's a risky proposal for the crypto market too but I want it to happen haha it will really pump the price to almost $500k. I might not make generational wealth but still haha.

According to Cointelegraph Pennsylvania has proposed a 10% reserve fund in bitcoin, with the East Coast state seemingly realizing the potential of bitcoin. The bill has yet to be approved but Pennsylvania representatives are optimistic that bitcoin is a hedge against inflation. The outcome of the US election will surely make some states that already have plans in the pipeline want to make sure that the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill gets full support soon.

I don't think that could be their plan, to compete with other countries as far as buying and holding Bitcoin. From what I interpret, they just wanted to make Bitcoin as national reserves but they are not any numbers that they have in their minds for now, on how big this plan is.

They already have some if I'm not mistaken, so they just have to buy more, and just like what traditional investors is, buying in DCA and see where the price is going. The good thing is that we are entering the final year of the bull run, so that could really be big for us, if US starting to buy more that will really push the price to above $100k in 2025 and we might really be in for a big surprises as to what will be the all time high this bull cycle.

Yeah it's nothing new most of countries will follow what the US did except China and Russia because they have their own power.

This might be last huge effect in Bitcoin, I don't think we will see a big change anymore if the government already adopt Bitcoin.

That's too late I guess, with Bitcoin almost hit $90K before Q4 in the next year (it's supposed to be the peak in the current cycle), Bitcoin might reach $200K in the current cycle, without need to wait for 6 years.

I don't see this news as total bullshit because most of the financial news especially about crypto is based on speculations. The predictions of George Tung can happen only if Donald Trump decides to adopt Bitcoin as a reserve fund. Other nations are copycats of US policies, so we expect them to do the same thing. If this happens which is very possible we might see the scrambling for Bitcoin just as Western powers scrambled for African territories. We all are expecting this good news which will definitely take Bitcoin price to the moon.

I’m not very receptive of the idea as if spells foul play, given that, Bitcoin would be sort out for in this regard, not for the technology but for the pump price of it. Where they would buy in with an aim to pump the price and surely, it would go bullish as, come the US, come other nations and allies to the US, whom would take there aim far off from the US, buy and like it’s said, used to pay debts. That would do much good for Bitcoin as if not properly managed, the sales could create dump in price.

You use words in quite a beautiful way, would be reading much from you with an intention, hope that doesn’t call for anything.

Yeah, lots of craps online as most is for clicks and mindless speculations just to have something up for views and clicks.

Yes Bitcoin value is changing due to changing views especially after US presidential election which led to its ATH. Now US is cautious while other countries are watching and waiting. This makes sense given Bitcoin history of going up and down. Bitcoin future depends on four main things more people using it worldwide and and big companies investing and changing laws and rules and people attitudes towards it. Bitcoin still has long way to go with predictions suggesting it could reach $200k by 2030.

If the US starts buying it, my country might follow suit. Probably right away and for no other reason than that its former colonizer is doing it. I don't know how many countries are like ours, but it seems the US is being constantly referenced when decisions are to be made locally. Murica adopts this, we might as well adopt it, too. Murica is doing this, we might as well do it, too. They eat their own shit in Murica, we should also be eating our own shit here. No more debates, they're doing this in Murica; we'll do it here, too.

The article is poorly written, though. The sarcasm of Peter Schiff seems more precise.


https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/1856739540762775662

I don't even see the merit of paying their debts because they're printing the debts themselves right? Totally agree that it is volatile so I doubt that it's something that the proposed bitcoin fund is going to be used to pay off the debt and at the same time, I think that they know that volatility can go both ways which means that there's definitely a possibility that things are going to be for the long-term with this fund. It's a really good news for hodlers though, I mean with bitcoin being noticed by the US government and they have the prospects of investing in it (although the intentions are not yet clear or if the investment is confirmed), the patience of so many people are definitely going to pay off, hopefully I can still catch up to my goal of 0.1 btc before that big price pump happens.

Bitcoin is volatile and times for x20, x100 or x60,000 are long gone away. I believe in bullish future of Bitcoin, but I am realistic that it is volatile in short term and within one market cycle and times for super parabolic bull run gone.

Bitcoin will only help the USA. to pay partial of its national debt, not all of its national debt. It's impossible.

It is like domino effects. It's all related to money and benefit so if people as individual investors, institutional investors or governmental investors, have many reasons to join a good party.

El Salvador is a first nation started governmental investment in Bitcoin, and some years later we have Bhutan. Soon, more countries will join Bitcoin party and there is enough time and chance for their participation.

As long as the US is the spark then other countries will surely follow, so basically we just need to see how far the new Trump administration will side with Bitcoin and if indeed the national reserve fund is more than 5% for bitcoin then everything is clear that the price will be increasingly out of control.

The national reserve fund idea is bullish for Bitcoin's price but net bearish for the tech and consensus if certain countries buy up majority of the supply. Price will go up but what we all grew to love about Bitcoin will become a thing of the past. Imo, this was always going to happen some point in Bitcoin future especially as bitcoin becomes a global movement not just for countries but for individuals in these countries.

Everyone backs a winner.

The sceptical chymist, I know you are either a US citizen or a resident. You should understand the country better. I have so much positive inclination to the article you shared. If I were to be the government of any country, let alone a powerful country like US, I'll use bitcoin to my advantage.

Check this;
Bitcoin remains limited in supply;
If America buys huge and make waves about it, so many countries will buy into the idea and bitcoin will surge so high. They can pay debt with it and repeat same in next circle.
Before the end of next year, wait for bitcoin at $175k+. I am no longer skeptical.

This is the part of the article I disagree with the most.
With governments of different countries buying Bitcoin and trying to outbuy each other, the price of Bitcoin will only keep rising. If the US buys 5% and China decides to buy more, the price of bitcoin will only keep rising. if they could buy 1000btc at 100k, they wouldn't be able to buy the same amount of bitcoin at $1 million. So there will always be enough to go around.
The same applies to normal people. The worth of our $100 while bitcoin is $89k would still be the same worth when it's 1 million dollars.
The point is, that the higher the price, the more difficult it would be for people to purchase more of it.

Fiat is not the best as a reserve or store of value not to mention the government creating more debt by printing more money.
Yes a scenario like this would be very bullish for Bitcoin and could create a kind of a ceiling that prices wouldn't fall lower than.
If a country starts something especially one as big as the US is successful
Other countries would want to do the same but all this are possible if US truly chooses to make Bitcoin a strategic reserve.

 Buying 5% of the total Bitcoin supply and expecting other countries to join in and see it as a competition to know who can out buy the other smells like them trying to control the market to me. If you buy such an amount with the aim of making a reserve where you can pay off your debts is not only risky but foolish as well. What if these countries you are expecting to catch the bait and panic buy don't fall for it and Bitcoin being  a volatile coin does what it knows how to do best keeps fluctuating in price? That would be utterly foolish but since it's a plan senator Cynthia Lummis is trying to pitch to president Trump, I just hope it ends there; as a plan and not a reality.

There is going to be more changes in views about bitcoin and the peoples mindset over it this year, this is starting from the narrative of how the presidential election make it more faster to have the all time high, this alone has signal a lot of interpretation on US, now they are on the complacent zone and cant help themselves over the basic decision they are taking on bitcoin, while knowing that other countries are still there waiting for their action or inaction to determine what moves they are also going to take, for now, we may go with whatever decision or name they called it, as long as its what makes the positive vibes within the bitcoin network.

Anything that makes them feel better in the future because of BTC price going up is worth entertaining even if its almost impossible. It didn't stop them from entertaining the thought of it.

Trump is quite an odd old man but anything that pulls our leg can become serious at some point after we see how congress today discussing alien technology that made the Flight MH370 disappear. We're all in for a surprise of our life. Wherever this Bitcoin Reserve funds goes I'm down with it. 

Has anyone seen this article?  Bitcoin has been getting a lot of mention on Yahoo Finance, some of it interesting, some of it not--but this write up had me scratching my head.

There's a senator apparently proposing this, but then there's an explanation by some guy George Tung from CryptosRus, which I've never heard of (and I've not googled it).  In any event, this so-called reserve fund is supposed to be earmarked for repayment of the US's debt, something I'd find extremely risky at best given how volatile bitcoin is.  

In order to justify the clickbait-y headline, there's some speculation that other countries might also start buying in an act of global keeping-up-with-the-Joneses, which in the media constitutes an arms race.  As to why those countries would need to follow the US's bitcoin buying spree, who knows?  No need to explain that when the writer of this can then add in corporate purchases and make the leap to this:


I'm curious as to what you all think about this article, this idea, or anything related to it.  Me?  I think it's total BS (though definitely bullish), but I tend to scoff at most crap that gets published online, especially if it's financial news--but I never rule out the possibility that I'm being a moron.