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Quote from: Troytech on December 12, 2024, 04:33:12 AM

Oil
Oil prices rise from the lows of $66 and have been stuck within a range since September. I think oil is a neutral state there is no clear trend, which makes me suggest that oil will continue to trade within this range. CPI m/m and y/y increased within expectations, but Core stayed the same. This means that food and energy prices could be impacting inflation now, but not enough to cause concern. Analysts still expect another cut this month.

Whenever oil moves, everything is impacted. Remember the news[1] about OPEC lessening the supply in the market until 2025. There's going to be a continuous increase for the inflation rate and that's what will happen that we have to endure. But if ever the price of oil decreases, not everyone follows, this is the truth in the economic movement that we're involved with.

[1] OPEC again cuts 2024, 2025 oil demand growth forecasts

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Energy prices in general are higher than desired but not high enough to be a catastrophe. So we can say that as long as for instance Brent Crude stays between $70 to $75 (maybe even $80) lower and upper bound with fluctuations inside that range, we shouldn't expect major negative impact that energy price has on the inflation. But since it is still higher than before we also shouldn't expect prices to go back down either.

But that is just energy price effect on inflation. There are a lot more variables affecting it, not just energy so we can't conclude interest rate cuts based on that alone.

For instance the new administration in the US is planning on starting a tariff war with China. Which means higher inflation in the US. If they manage to convince Europe to participate in that war, that also means higher inflation in Europe.
That would make rate cuts impossible. Not just that, they may increase interest rates again.

So we have to wait and see what the future holds...

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Oil prices is currently stable with $70 - $75 per barrel, but there is a risk of price fall in 2025 if factors such as economic slowdowns and US production get worse. Inflation data showed that the Consumer Price Index increased 2.7% in November, up from 2.6% in October, showing that food and energy prices may lead to inflation. While the current oil trends may be neutral, I think there is a potential shifts that could disrupt the economic and this shift could impact both oil prices and inflation in the near future.

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Quote from: Unknown Op on December 16, 2024, 10:46:45 AM

Quote from: Troytech on December 12, 2024, 04:33:12 AM

Oil
Oil prices rise from the lows of $66 and have been stuck within a range since September. I think oil is a neutral state there is no clear trend, which makes me suggest that oil will continue to trade within this range. CPI m/m and y/y increased within expectations, but Core stayed the same. This means that food and energy prices could be impacting inflation now, but not enough to cause concern. Analysts still expect another cut this month.

The prices of oil will go up because supply of oil is limited and every country 's industries are working on the oil and oil is not reusable resource. US is struggling to accumulate oil for the future years because it will end one day so that is best thing to store oil because electric cars will not be common on the road because these cars are very costly and we will see huge pump in price of oil when oil will end on the World.Many countries have oil but all countries have no resources of oil because is made due to fossils and different countries have different fossils and we want to buy oil on low price but during COVID-19 many people became billionaires because at that time oil market was very low.

Sorry, but you are somewhat misguided, and because of that you are making not very realistic predictions.
There are about 60-90 more years of oil reserves that can be explored and accessed. And we are not talking about undiscovered deposits. Yes, I assume that their exploration and production will be more difficult than, for example, in Saudi Arabia, with a shallow depth of deposits.
There are also huge reserves of oil, which is not yet massively entering the market - for example, from Venezuela.
The factors of state support for countries that can afford it have not yet been taken into account.
Factors such as these have not yet been taken into account:
- Decreasing use of oil as a raw material for automobile fuel (electric/hybrid transportation is already quite affordable)
- declining industrial demand in China, where the global economic crisis is just beginning.
So not everything is so sad !

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Betting on oil is a sort of a fools errand for most. Everyone wants lower gas prices because they vote for future lower inflation and prices follow companies. If anything nation states will step in to drive the price lower themselves by increasing production.

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https://oilprice.com
Current oil price is at a decline and if you have being following crude oil price speculation for a while now you will see that the price Brent crude went almost close to $90 in the last one year from 2022-2023 but lately the price have being on a slow decline and right now it seating at $73.73 -0.24% this shows lack of demand for the oil at this point, although we can tell what we see in coming year 2025 election is past now and Trump admission is expected to make some comments and policies and a reflection of that will be seen on oil price.

Demands on oil is lowering with improved in electricity a d availability of electric cars and solar cars, most technological advanced country are shifting attentions from oil and this is having heavy effects on the oils market.

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Quote from: Troytech on December 12, 2024, 04:33:12 AM

Oil
Oil prices rise from the lows of $66 and have been stuck within a range since September. I think oil is a neutral state there is no clear trend, which makes me suggest that oil will continue to trade within this range. CPI m/m and y/y increased within expectations, but Core stayed the same. This means that food and energy prices could be impacting inflation now, but not enough to cause concern. Analysts still expect another cut this month.

Trading and economy analysts has always defended that when the price of oil goes up, it encroaches to inflation meaning market stocks will highily expensive and when it goes down on price, stocks are also depreciated in price which means the production means of transportation and consumable gas and petroleum energies has an Influential derivative classic enough to determine the price of stocks.

So I think at the period of oil price downfall, the price of commodities will also fall to affordability unless the government want to revive their economy on the other round in the consumable stock market on the he matter of fact that they are not generating enough funds on the oil facility.

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It's actually interesting that despite of Trump's "Drill Baby Drill!" campaign, the oil price seemingly didn't react at all to his election victory. It even went up a bit at the start of November, until November 7 when it declined again to the previous value.

Perhaps the only indicator where the U.S. election at a first glance had any impact were futures, the price is declining from $70 for January 2025 down to $59 for the year 2034. But I checked the January 2027 future's price and it also didn't react at all to the November 5 election: it moved alongside the spot price.

Regarding long term, I think it's really difficult to predict. But as China is rapidly moving towards renewables and on a smaller scale also nuclear energy, alongside with India, I think the oil price won't increase as much as I had thought in the 2010s (in this time, I was convinced we would see $100+ prices from now on, but that didn't happen.)

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Quote from: Troytech on December 12, 2024, 04:33:12 AM

Oil
Oil prices rise from the lows of $66 and have been stuck within a range since September. I think oil is a neutral state there is no clear trend, which makes me suggest that oil will continue to trade within this range. CPI m/m and y/y increased within expectations, but Core stayed the same. This means that food and energy prices could be impacting inflation now, but not enough to cause concern. Analysts still expect another cut this month.

Oil is a big deal in the thriving industry so if it not maintained and giving proper attention those who are InCharge will take the opportunity to make all the profit and leave those in the future to have nothing for themselves. There are some parts of the African countries who have enough oil but now they are left with nothing by their recent rulers who took advantage of the resources.

What am saying in essence is the prices still looks comfortable now but very soon there will be scarcity leaving to high demand. Which we all know that with high demands the price will high.

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Quote

The prices of oil will go up because supply of oil is limited and every country 's industries are working on the oil and oil is not reusable resource.

For so long Oil has been amongst the most sort after natural resources Oil would go up based on the demand and supply chain of oil but the question is for how long?
With the rate at which the search for other sources of energy is intensifying this begs the question that would oil be as relevant in future as it is now.
We can now see how the electric vehicle are now being more efficient and are constantly being improved also solar is now a functioning source of energy as well and more sources would still be tapped. I think countries who are basing their existence on their oil should also be looking for other options to boost their economy in the future when oil's demand reduces.

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Quote from: Troytech on December 12, 2024, 04:33:12 AM

Oil
Oil prices rise from the lows of $66 and have been stuck within a range since September. I think oil is a neutral state there is no clear trend, which makes me suggest that oil will continue to trade within this range. CPI m/m and y/y increased within expectations, but Core stayed the same. This means that food and energy prices could be impacting inflation now, but not enough to cause concern. Analysts still expect another cut this month.

The prices of oil will go up because supply of oil is limited and every country 's industries are working on the oil and oil is not reusable resource. US is struggling to accumulate oil for the future years because it will end one day so that is best thing to store oil because electric cars will not be common on the road because these cars are very costly and we will see huge pump in price of oil when oil will end on the World.Many countries have oil but all countries have no resources of oil because is made due to fossils and different countries have different fossils and we want to buy oil on low price but during COVID-19 many people became billionaires because at that time oil market was very low.

Troytech

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Oil
Oil prices rise from the lows of $66 and have been stuck within a range since September. I think oil is a neutral state there is no clear trend, which makes me suggest that oil will continue to trade within this range. CPI m/m and y/y increased within expectations, but Core stayed the same. This means that food and energy prices could be impacting inflation now, but not enough to cause concern. Analysts still expect another cut this month.

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