Topic: USA 2024 Presidential Election Promotion in Stake.com (Read 1093 times)

Welp, Stake came through, I was getting kinda worried but they always do. Got paid. 

So here's the proof of getting paid for anyone that might have been wondering. It was an interesting promotion, I hope they'll make it bigger and better for future elections.
Bookies need to be more organized in running these promotions because polymarket is getting a lot of attention these days and it feels like it will outpace them. But being realistic, polymarket's model is kinda stupid and bound to fail once something big happens. So Bookies better prepare. Anyway, discussion for another time. Till next time 

What a race... I didn't expect Kamala to be barely above 220 electors but whatever. Based on this promotion I'm still a winner I guess.

I didn't catch in the terms that it may take up to 5 working days to credit any balance from this promotion. So depending on if this is counting from election day or from when the results were finalized, it could be from tomorrow or the day after.

Anyway, I will wait to see what happens with the pending balance and only after close this thread. If anyone else took this promotion to bet on Kamala let us know and let's see how it goes.

As someone who used this promotion to get on Kamala, I'm a bit sad I didn't wait a bit longer.

In terms of polls things look much worse for her now, but it's most likely she'll still manage to be above 220 as the promotion requires to be paid as a winer. The only issue I have is that I could have locked in much better odds if I just waited. But st the time Kamala was looking to be riding a lot in support.

Bettors put a lot of money on Trump, personally I don't think his odds to actually win are that greater than Kamala's but in any case it's still going to be a very competitive election.

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/10/harris-vs-trump-analyst-tells-panicky-dems-gop-is-creating-fake-polls-desperate-unhinged-trumpian.html

Some Democrat-leaning media like the one above have now taken to calling polling Fake. Surely polls from long trusted companies showing Trump now performing better in NC, GA, PA and threatening to take more states previously leaning blue doesn't have anything to do with Kamala's failures... This is bad journalism at its peak.

Why go to the street and interview people asking for their opinion when you can just call polling fake and defy reality?
Well, too late for damage control now I guess. The election is less than a month away. Truth will be revealed when the ballots open, and everything indicates a close race.

I'm genuinely curious here do you get your news from, Maga Times, Breitbart, Zerohedge? 
https://www.newsweek.com/hurricane-milton-republicans-voted-against-fema-funding-storm-path-florida-1965181

Republicans in Florida have become the laughingstock of the whole world

The same stupid take, if the US is sending 100 Bradleys from their stock that;s 3 billion in help, how would that have helped any of the victims? The help to Ukraine is 90% of weapons that are in storage that would have probably never been pulled out and left to rot at Sierra Army Depot, at the same time FEMA got $20 billion in cash, and this was voted by the Demcrats and opposed by the Republicans.
https://www.fema.gov/press-release/20241003/biden-harris-administration-provides-more-20-million-hurricane-helene

Seriously, stop gulping down with both hands this stupid maga propaganda!

Thanks for sharing this I guess? I am sure Polymarket is the biggest place to do these sort of bets (more bets, more volume, better odds I guess?) however It's refreshing to see that you can do it on Stake too. As the userbase/playerbase, is way more bigger on Stake as compared to other gambling platforms.

The people voting for Harris don’t care about how inept the government is. They just want to vote for the party they think will give them free stuff. The real detriment to the Democrats is when their voter base wakes up and realizes everything they’ve been fighting for is going to skip right passed them and go to immigrants.

oh well, is everyone adopting this new variety?for the most part, I'm not surprised honestly-- especially since Imead alot about the involvement but I didn't just hope to have it on almost on every casino...
That doesn't sound as what they'll be saying on campaign grounds though but the sad reality is that the most important request are being ignored in most cases-- especially if it's a huge project.

Whatever happens, I still see a whole lot of possibilities that trump has to pave his way in once again. He really needs to stop the LGBT segregation now that he has major projects to enforce if he'll ever have that opportunity again.

It's so weird how Easy Biden has made it for Trump to attack the Democratic party after the Hurricane that hit Florida and Georgia.

Biden kept saying they gave everything they could but the working class people of Florida, Georgia and North Carolina spoke and it's clear that "everything" wasn't enough. While so many people have their houses destroyed or flooded, with damage that would require tens of thousands of dollars to restore at best, they got some hundreds in emergency aid.

The most infuriating part is that week after week Biden gives billions and billions to Ukraine and Israel. Which I understand must be very infuriating to see when a week's funds sent to a foreign country is more than the maximum allocation emergency aid could give...

I'm fully expecting North Carolina and Georgia to flip for Trump as a result of that. Kamala's campaign and the Biden admin are in full damage control to say they did everything they could. I hope Trump keeps highlighting the start contrast of how war-mongering abroad is more important for democrats than helping working people in their own country.

Elon Musk is purposely backing Trump because he knows that in the case Trump goes back into the White House it is possible for Elon to get favors from Trump to make Tesla the staple vehicle brand within the United States, while there is the transition from fossil fuel to electric vehicles. It is funny to me, because Trump is also backed by Tucker Carlson, who says climate change is a scam and does not actually exist, while at the same time Elon is backing Trump.
I am calling it: in the case Trump get elected president of the United States again and he start to boost the use of Tesla and other American-manufactured electrical vehicles, suddenly Tucker Carlson and people like him (who deny the climate change going on around the planet) will stop talking about the "green scam" and sponsor the use of Tesla for the small percentage of their audience which could actually afford for one of those.  

Never forget it, when a billionaire backs and donates to a candidate to the presidency of the USA, it is always about interest, corporate interests

Elon has been a wise billionaire that is very neutral and always after the call for freedom of speech all these while. I am very convinced that he is fully backing Trump and his ready to reveal some secrets if any thing goes wrong during this election. Trump has high probability of becoming the next president of the United States even after so many error and trials against him to make him not to contest or better still to make him become weak and demoralized. Harris as a politician has so many failed attempts records as one time vise president of a man that has been making life difficult for people with lots of failed promises.

It is betting, which means chance. It is not about it being election or not an election. Also in sport and other betting, there are chances that the betting site might win while people will lose. This is a bit different but it is still possible. So we should use just small amount of money to bet. I have not bet on it yet because I want the election date to be close. I will bet in November which would be very close to the 5th of the month when the election will begin. Then I will just use small amount of money just like I am betting on sport. People should be very careful and use just small amount of money to bet.

Because one of the candidates might drop out of the race!
Assassination, health issues, accidents, party revolution, coup so on!
The difference was pretty visible when Biden was still the democrat choice, the odds for the party were far better as it covered both him and the replacement, if you took a bet on Biden you'd already lost, so that's what that tiny spread is for.

This is the thing with this promo too:
so if you bet on Kamala and she too drops out of the race you lose.

Just curious about the winning party odds.

Why is it a different winner for the next president?
If you are worried or sensitive about the small difference in odds in the next presidential winner, you can just bet then in the winning party, you can able to get better odds even with little difference.

I'm getting a sense that Trump and Vance get little to no guidance on how to act publicly. Trump can't just keep riding on his unhinged manners and infinite confidence and expect people to take it in well.

Give people soke things they want to hear, don't just yap. Otherwise Kamala is going to sweep the floor. Trump had some good positions but I hardly hear them being promoted by then at all. Dude said he has a plan to end the war in Ukraine. This at the time that Kamala wants to war monger even harder. This is what everyone wants, peace, promote it then, stand behind this one good idea and people are going to vote for you...

lol, but you are right if you have confidence that Trump will win, there is nothing wrong with putting money into Trump, but at least we have to think long and hard if we want to do something stupid by putting all our money into this, because everything can change and be out of control, because the election is not 100% real in the vote count there will definitely be cheating

Harris needs an advantage of 2% to 3% in the popular vote, to scrape through the electoral college. During the last few decades, states like California, New York and New Jersey have become deeper blue, while states such as Texas and Georgia have become light red from deep red. Anyway, the outcome of the election will be decided by 7-8 swing states. And out of these states, the tipping point seems to be Pennsylvania. Whomever wins Pennsylvania, will win the POTUS elections two months from now.

What...assassination...by pebble which    gave his ear a scrape?   The period pad stuck out Trump's ear  is something one can remember for a long time. I think the  relevant companies ( like always or General day ) have to not pass up  such opportunity to advertise their products. Trump is good for nothing except this.


Always Trump - probably the best period pads in the world!  


 

That still confirms his point. He said even if 50% of RFK voters choose Trump he will gain 2% which is a significant number because according to polls Harris is winning by 1 or 2% at the moment.

Personally, I can see how the media is trying to downgrade that assassination attempt. Normally a candidate who almost got killed would gain a lot of votes, but he did not because the media told people that it was nothing, just another gun owner trying to kill a bunch of gun owners during a Republican rally. So, they got what they wanted, move on.

Last time, in 2020 Biden won around 97% of the black vote according to exit polls. But this time, Kamala is hovering around 70% to 80% level. A lot of the black voters are not happy with the worsening inflation as well as law and order situation. And they are crucial in some of the swing states such as Georgia and Michigan. The race card is still being used by Democrats to shore up the black votes, but it is not working as it used to be earlier. And a lot of blacks do accuse Kamala of being a "fake" black.

Don't know about history of black community voters but got confuse when seeing this https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/18/why-are-black-voters-backing-donald-trump-in-record-numbers

But there's also an article that they really hate trump way back 2020 https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/26/politics/trump-approval-black-voters-2020/index.html

Even though he didn't get the majority votes of black community I guess Trump still has a chance to win. But if Harris camp take this as advantage and create issue to spread hate for Trump I guess situation might get change then Harris would really take the momentum in their presidency race.

But my decision to bet on Trump still intact but let see what will happen in next following months for sure that period will became more exciting in US.

He got the black community? Democrat party gets 60%+ of all the black votes, it could be kamala harris, it could be oj simpson, it could be dead kobe bryant and black community would still vote for democratic candidate, doesn't even matter who it is, in fact you can switch the candidates today, trump could be democratic candidate and he would get the black votes that way, they just vote democrat no matter what, thinking that Trump could get anything even close to what Kamala will get from black community would indicate you have absolutely no idea about elections in the US.

Trump could still win, but not from blacks, he would only win because he would win the rural areas of very important swing states, which is still very very possible, that's how he won first time, and that's how any republican ever wins.

Trump is not going to get votes from all of the RFK supporters. At the most, he may get 50% of these votes. Many of the RFK supporters are educated urban youngsters, who are diametrically opposite of the demographic group that comprises of core Trump fanbase. A lot of these people are either going to stay out of the elections, or go with another third party candidate. But at this point, Trump has built a good "power group", which comprises of JD Vance, JFK, Elon Musk and Tulsi Gabbard.

Why would they be upset with RFK? The man chose well, since most of the mainstream media is already in Kamala's pocket. They see how Trump is being attacked and how Democrats used to restrict free speech. Now with Zuck admitting to his censorship being the result of pressure from the government and RFK who was always against censorship endorsing Trump it completely makes sense. Even if half of his supporters choose to vote for Trump that's additional 2% of all votes. In some polls they were even, in some Harris was winning by 1%, that 2% is going to make a big difference, believe me.

The only thing I know is that trying to predict what it may happen is impossible, the polls have proven to be too unreliable during the two previous presidential elections, and so much has happened that it is clear that both the Republicans and the Democrats believe this is not just another presidential election, and instead they believe this will determine the future of the country during the next decades, so both parties are doing everything they can to try to ensure that their candidate wins.

The Dems have been ruling the country for decades I don't see why they get votes still but people see during the time of Trump the economy is better than Bidens. But then who knows what this election brings after all the country is already too divided with all the migrants taking over, I'm not sure if Trump could even manage to rule or the Democrats after the election. However, if it's just to win the bet, I think Trump would make it since he got the black community and they know Kamala is just nothing. It's only the polls she appears to be climbing up.

Considering the living ones already made a statement about how they are not happy with him, it is funny how you always assume that the republican side must be right. This is why republicans usually lose, at least they lose the popular vote all the time, meaning that majority of the Americans do not vote for republicans at all, literally once in thirty two years, that should tell you why republicans are this much disliked.

The idea that you are always right, even when you do not get the votes, should be telling you something but you just decline it, not just you specifically but literally all of the republican party.

You keep saying you are right, and how democrats are terrible and evil, and yet they get more votes, have you ever imagined why? Is it just "the public is just brainwashed idiots" and you move on? If that's the case, as long as republicans keep doing that, there won't be a republican party left eventually, or you could consider why the people you call evil are getting more votes, could help figuring out what's wrong with your party that way.

I won't be too sure about it. This is no longer the Democrat Party of the 1960s. Dems have moved too far to the left in the last 5-6 decades. Now the Democrat Party is similar to the Communist Party of the Soviet Union in the 1960s. So his uncle won't be too upset with him. On the other hand, he will be really upset with people like Kamala and Biden. A lot of people do believe that Trump is lesser of the two evils, at least when compared to Kamala and her plan to tax unrealized capital gains at 25%.

Past matters. Now it can be forgave/forgotten but it does. Elon supporting Trump is purely business related, and anyone knows that. Twitter is a shithole war zone and there aren’t very many Americans going there to decide how they are going to vote.

I am impressed that one of the world largest narcissists is backing one of the other biggest narcissists on earth. But, money talks.

The proposed tax on unrealized gains is fn atrocious. As a financial advisor , blows my mind her financial people would even remotely suggest this be a good idea or something to even float.




His uncle, one of Americas greatest presidents is rolling in his grave right now. Apparently the majority of his family is upset with him.

Anyways, honesty I don’t think this is going to effect the election results really at all. As I tally up wins/losses in prep to bet on the election outcome , it’s certainly a “win” for Trump, a better endorsement than Hulk Hogan (a pathological liar and disgraced /once beloved wrestler) or Kid Rock..but it’s not earth shattering.

It's done! RFK Jr has dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump, in a speech where he made a lot of attacks against Kamala Harris and the Democrats:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n15oCfLdmXI

This is surely going to have an impact on the election result, RFK has given a very clear endorsement and mentioned a plethora of reasons on why he things Democrats shouldn't be trusted. In the latest polls RFK was performing at around 5% of the popular vote. Keep in mind though that RFK's campaign had even reached 20% in previous months. His endorsement is definitely important.

The smears against RFK were indeed many, and the coverage of his campaign very lackluster. As the election approached his poll numbers dropped. He has some good ideas and now will be seeking a position in Trump's office after election from what it seems. We kinda expected this development lately, interesting to see how the chances for Kamala are affected now in this already tight race.

That is exactly the case here, it doesn't mean Trump will lose, but open to the whole world poll on twitter makes no sense at all, even I voted for it and I have never been to USA ever in my life, which shows you that it's open to the whole globe, and to all ages, makes absolutely no sense at all. It's clear that Elon is a republican as well, so people who follow him and vote could be republican, mainly at least. The votes here in some topics shows Trump heavily too, because there are more trump fans here.

So all in all, we can say that this isn't the way to go and this poll is even worse than the polls the companies does. So we could just ignore that. Don't get me wrong, I would like to emphasize once again that this doesn't mean that we are going to see Kamala win neither, it just means absolutely nothing at all, and that is why it's an useless one. Everyone who follows the elections even a bit would know that it is going to be a very close race without a doubt.

Kamala Harris is adopting Trump's approach to Cryptocurrency very different from his successor Biden; she knows that Trump is gaining a lot of support not only in the US but in different parts of the globe because the Cryptocurrency community has a strong community now compared to a decade ago and she needs to be on good terms in one of the largest community.

This is going to be a very close fight between the two, one who wants to recapture old glory and the other wants to set a new record as the first woman US president, it all depends on how they play their card and who people will believe in.

Past doesn't matter, especially in politics. Elon might have made very negative comments against Trump in the past. But at this point, he is one of the largest donors to the Trump campaign. And as the owner of Twitter, he holds a lot of influence among the crucial demographic groups. BTW, the proposed tax on unrealized capital gains is going to sink Kamala's campaign. It was such a stupid suggestion, and a lot of neutral voters are definitely going to vote for Trump after hearing about it.

That poll was not restricted to US voters, so anyone could vote, Russian, Chinese, and since Putin is desperate for Trump to win, I was just making a parallel on how many voters both have and the amounts they could theoretically share in such online polls.

But anyhow the polls are irrelevant like this, even US restricted they don't matter, it's just about three states, PA, MI and GA, if overall votes would count like in Europe the Republicans would have lost 2 of their last 3 wins.


He also said this:


Can't wait to hear how you're going to defend this one.

He had to say that back then despite not liking Biden since Trump already lost and was crying like a baby that it was unfair and rigged.

Well said. Russia and China are known for providing fake figures on a regular basis which is why these figures aren't trustworthy at all. Trump is definitely popular in Russia, but the gap between him and Putin should realistically be a lot bigger.

Bingo.  You get it.

Musk absolutely has not always been a supporter of Trump, nor the Republican party.  Also, the Republican party and their policies are far more favorable to big businesses and billionaires than the Democratic party's is.  I mean that is US politics 101. 

"I'm curious if Musk's companies need subsidies to stay afloat" Space X does, but that's a bit different than his businesses such as X, Tesla, Solar City etc.

"There are more trump voters in Russia than in the US, and no that's not a joke, Putin got 76,277,708 votes, and Trump got 74,223,975." 

What do you mean by this? Bit confused ...   I believe Russian voting results made public are about as trustworthy as China's financial reporting data made public-( i.e. not accurate/believable at all..and maybe that's what you're pointing out here).

Left, right, Dems, Repubs..one things for sure, they are all corrupt.  Voting wise, whomever has the best odds right before the election kicks off, probably not a bad dart throw.  No one in this country knows which way this thing will go.  Both Clinton vs Trump, and Trump vs Biden ended up differently than most thought.  Also can't forget the electoral college.  If just votes counted, then Trump would have soundly lost both elections.  I think he'll lose the popular vote again but with the college, who knows.  I'll be betting but waiting to see how things shake out a bit to try and make a bit more of an "educated" vote.

Well, he could answer why he voted for Biden in 2020 and also clear the accusations Trump launched at him
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/110220245241308483



I'm curious if Musk's companies need subsidies to stay afloat, and Trump plans to cut funding to save money, does this mean he will knowingly bankrupt his new friend? 
This is what I love about those loudmouths, they can't keep quiet, they act like rabid baboons at any piece of news and then they act surprised their own stupid statements are diving them into a corner.



There are more trump voters in Russia than in the US, and no that's not a joke, Putin got 76,277,708 votes, and Trump got 74,223,975.


No he has not.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1546669610509799424

Anyhow, stake is showing them again tied at 2.05



$100 back if any wins 220 votes so, easy money? 

Online polls, especially the ones by social media platforms are useless. Twitter, after it's takeover by Elon Musk is somewhat center-right in nature and any poll would obviously show Trump with a large lead. On the other hand, if you conduct the same poll in far-left bastions such as Instagram, YouTube or FaceBook, then you will be witnessing a huge lead for Kamala Harris. Any reliable online poll need to make sure that the demographics of the sample population is same as that of the general population.

Online poll does not give any accurate result. In my country last presidential election, the party that would have won the election if it is online would have been from a different party that won the election. I am not saying Trump might not win but neither would I say Harris would win. The margin that one candidate will use to win the other candidate will not be of higher margin as we see in the poll.

But if I have to choose someone, I will prefer Trump because of his political agenda for bitcoin.

You are way too naive. Musk has always been an ardent supporter of Trump since way back which is why it's not surprising seeing such an inaccurate poll being conducted on Twitter of all places.

I really doubt such a dumb poll would have any sort of effect anywhere. Trump is anything, but competent while Harris is a corrupt politician though slightly better in comparison.

Though, there is a good reason even Elon Musk called that survey/poll to be highly lacking of scientific base, it is because people who are more likely to vote for Donald Trump are followers of Elon Musk on Twitter, not even mentioning the polls does not exclude people living outside of the USA and not having the right to actually vote in November.
So this poll it will likely be used by some Trump followers as some kind of proof of the massive support Trump is having, while in reality, there is no validity on it.
Also, even though Elon is obviously a person with much influence and has lately become a popular culture character, he would need to do more than that in order to move the odds of either Kamala Harris or Trump in this high liquidity betting market.
He has already openly endorsed Trump, by the way, so no much left he could do.

This is interesting and one will have a number of choice or varieties to cast vote on, i know quite alright that some gamblers will definitely vote on the high odds and risk it because they believe that nothing else can not happen in this life, you cant imagine if some are taking it up that Michelle Obama is winning, when they know that the race in between Kamala and Trump.

Source: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1826015426658415033?t=86EvIbfo8TRxKQjikGGZ4A&s=19

Elon Musk made a poll yesterday on X and majority of the voters chose Trump over Kamala Harris. Maybe the odds at Stake will be different after this poll is concluded. I’m not in the US therefore I cannot be certain how the people living there feel about the two candidates. I saw that the Obamas endorsed Kamala Harris with Michelle Obama leading the calvary. I think they are trying hard to make Kamala Harris look good in the eyes of the public. If I was voting, I would not vote based on race or gender, the most competent person will get my vote.

Yes, I am familiar with the concept of an information bubble and we all live in our own bubbles, it is true. But do you really think that we have no connection with reality at all?

As I understand it, in your bubble, “future” elections in some specific regions/cities is an argument? 
And it doesn't bother you at all that Harris was appointed as a candidate and not elected? Seriously?

So you have talked to every single american out there and nobody is going to vote for Harris, is that what they've told you? Some people live in their own world, just because they hang in groups with same preferences, they only read news they like, only follow accounts they like they start to believe the world they imagine is real when it's just a tiny fraction, not even relevant to the bigger picture.

But be is as you say, since you are ao sure nobody is going to vote for Harris, does that mean she will also lose Cali and NY? 


RFK's voters were pledging their votes because they didn't like any of the other candidates or because they by default hated the two party system so this was their way of protesting, they won't suddenly all go pro Trump,  maybe a slight majority but definetly not all of them.

RFK's support to trump is not a given. As I said we have to wait for what the man himself states publicly and not just his running mate says they are considering.

But speaking on this hypothetical, even the consideration is a good development for Trump's campaign. It clearly shows that RFK understands his campaign is more about sending a message rather than holding realistic chances towards the presidency. So he will pledge his support if he can get a candidate to secure his ideas will be heard when making policy. This could be either Kamala or Trump.

But RFK's campaign considering they're closer to Trump can only be good for Trump, as it was already shown in the odds changing since yesterday.

It is possible, actually. At this point, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. supporters are accusing Democrats of sabotaging their campaign. And a lot of them think that they don't have enough support to win electoral college votes in any of the states. Recent opinion polls point to a slide in support level for Kennedy in most of the swing states. Given this, I won't be surprised if Kennedy asks his followers to vote for Trump (obviously he will try for a deal with Trump, and may get something in return).

The problem with Trump supporters is that they are people who are easily fooled. They don't think before they act. They are against the press, they constantly attack the press and they believe everything Trump says and does. Take, for example, the things Trump said about the war against Russia; they are nonsense. He is more in favor of Russia and that is not a good thing. If Trump sat down, he would start being very careful with every word he says, he wouldn't side with Putin, he wouldn't get involved in controversies. I think he could easily be elected president. But the guy is constantly in controversy; in the last two weeks he has already had two controversies.


source: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/16/politics/trump-medal-of-honor/index.html


source: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/19/politics/donald-trump-taylor-swift-ai/index.html

He doesn't need an opponent to bring him down, he's bringing himself down. And his supporters have an incredible tendency.

Example in relation to the polls:

When the TV channels say that Trump is ahead of his opponent in the polls = Trump's supporters say it's true and celebrate.

When the TV channels say that Trump is behind his opponent in the polls = Trump's supporters say it's fake news and criticize the TV channels, they start accusing the TV channels of being paid by the opponent.

Lol! What makes you think that RFK Jr already pledged his support for Trump? They are still considering it and they are in talks with both sides. Also, even if he actually ends up backing either side, they will probably just get a small boost or no boost at all.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/08/21/politics/cash-advantage-harris-trump-rfk-filings

RFK Jr's campaign fizzled out due to funds issues primarily which is why him and his team might not be able to help Trump or Harris in a big way financially implying that Harris's cash advantage over Trump will stay intact.

Good action by a gentleman to step down when he think he don't have any chance to win. And this is really a great help on Trump's side especially if they announce that they have full support of Trump's candidacy since their voters will be additional fire power to Trumps dominance in this upcoming election. Now with those support Trump get we can see that he's chances to win became more better. Although there are survey says he is underdog in this election but I guess that doesn't tell everything. Media is known to be manipulator and we can always see that Trump is always relevant in the discussions so most likely he have the real pulse and most likely have great chance to win against Harris.

Bombshell! Now RFK's running mate stated they are considering dropping out of the race to aid Trump's campaign.

This is going to be tremendous help to Trump if it truly happens. Trump has a hard time this year in a few battleground states and already it was a very tight race against Biden, not it's going to be even harder.

With RFK's support trump could secure the few thousands of votes needed to win states like Georgia that are complete tossup. The question is if it'll happen or not. It all depends on RFK himself and we haven't heard from the man himself. Suddently Trump's chances look much better though. Those that locked bets on Kamala below 2.0 (like me) are a bit unlucky because if this decision materializes Trump has better chances to win which has already been reflected in the odds.

It's amusing to see someone believe in the media propaganda. Maybe you also believe that Biden is "in good shape" as the media has been saying for so long? Hm? Or maybe you remember the story with "there is no inflation" and then "it's transitional" and then "it's good" or "it's all greedy corporations"?
And what do you say about the fact that Harris literally never won votes anywhere? She was even appointed as the Democratic candidate, not elected, Biden won the election.

What the heck are you even on about? The one who is actually getting sensationalised like crazy these days is Trump after his botched assassination attempt by some random dude out of nowhere.

Lmao. That dude was one of the worst presidents in US history which is why the US citizens helped Biden win. Think properly.

That's how they sell Harris they sensualized this aspect and try to implant some thoughts that there's something good to happen in their country under by a women's care. They try to insert some thoughts that they want to create a history by voting Harris. But hopefully US citizens will not fall in that kind of brain washing and put those people who could really help US to became more powerful.

We can't deny that Harris is also good presidentiable, but her time is not yet to come and people need Trump its because people think that he can bring impressive changes especially he know how to handle well their country and current agenda on some good topics tackle is really helpful for their citizen. That's why I guess right now I can say that Trump got huge chance to win.

I don't also think that Trump supporter is nervous now since I see them doing fine and didn't care about the polls release by the mainstream.

Really surprised to see names like JD Vance or Hillary Clinton on the list. I wonder if people really bet on them to somehow blindside everyone and becomes another president candidate. Makes me wonder if there are betting options to see which candidate withdraw from the race first, juse like Biden. Anyway, betting on the winning party for each state is probably a better option if people are looking for risky prediction. CMIIW.

Anyway, my social media circle is clearly pushing for a Harris win. There are tons of posts showing how Trump and Vance are problematic and so on. A bit surprised since I don't particularly follow their race. I guess it's understandable if her odds to win increased.

Let's go! 



Kamala Harris @ 1.94 odds by the time that I have bet and Trump @ 2.20. This is just another bet and we've got three months left or so, time is fast and there can be a lot of things that can happen between these candidates.

For $100 both sides look like sure bets too bad this wasn't available a bit earlier when  Harris still had 3:1 odds.
270to win shows a score of 226 to 235 with 77 undecided, pretty hard for any candidate to not get at least one of the disputed states and lose more of what they have, the Democrats would have to lose Minnesota and Oregon, and the Republicans Ohio and NC and not win any ...

I'm thinking of throwing the minimum bet at both sides at this moment.


And why is that?
It is quite amusing to see how some think they know the preferences of 200 million people as they would have talked to each of them about the elections.


It won't be a Harris win, it will be a Trump loss if this happens.
That's what some of the guys here don't get, it's not about how many vote for Harris, it's about how many will vote against Trump.

Good point. Harris's biggest advantage this time around is surprisingly the fact that she is a woman when men are traditionally favoured for the presidential position and there are a lot of women willing to vote for her.

Another thing going for her is her age which settles the whole old age debate convincingly. Trump and his supporters are clearly nervous now. Let's see what happens.

Honestly it is looking more and more like it is going to be Kamala Harris that will win it, she has the wind on her back and she is going very strong, I feel like we are going to see her win this election easily without much problem. The reality is that we are going to see Trump get more and more hate, and he can't always end up protecting himself by lying and convincing others.

The most recent one was against Taylor Swift, he saw some AI image of her and thought that she supported him, which is a total lie of course, and this pissed a lot of "Swifties" which means that they may end up rallying together for a voting registration stuff or whatever, or more like they may just end up go out to vote. Imagine if Taylor Swift actually came out and supported Kamala Harris, doubt that will happen but it is not unheard of and I think we can see something like that.

It would lose her all the republican support she has, considering she started as country singer, and her customers are mostly white woman, we may consider that's a big demographic for her. But she is strong enough, if she does that, we can say it's as good as done because that's a few million people right there, I doubt it would be anything shorter than that.

I think Kamala is a smoke screen, I personally don't care who wins these elections, but DT's @s are still interesting...btw, note that these odds are in several bookmakers competing to capture the "incredible" +2@ for either of the 2 candidates.

Well this is pretty interesting that they've got Michelle Obama on the ticket here.  I mean I guess if you wanted pretty good odds yet to lose your placed bet, than betting on her makes sense lol. 

I was actually talking to one of my buddies yesterday about this very subject.  They aren't really into politics but was asking why Michelle hadn't run..I was like would you?  I have no question though that if she would have run, she would SMOKE Trump/Vance..hell even if she didn't have a VP she would.  I wouldn't want the stress if I was her either.

At this point things are not clear enough to know what is happening, since just today the democratic national convention will be held and Harris will finally become the official candidate for the democratic party on the upcoming days, and while Harris seems to be taking the lead on the polls, it is possible for her to give up all that ground that was won, as some of the economic policies she has revealed are not to the liking of small business owners.

Yeah, a mistake and can't edit that no more, thanks. It changes because of the weigh of the bettors and just as the time when OP posted it, it was 2.10 and then changes as ktchampions said, it became 2.20.

Still, there will be a lot that's going to bet for Trump on this one. But I am not sure if those that have bet for Biden will still continue to bet against Trump or they have a change of heart as well and will just have to go with the 2.20 for Trump or whatever will be the last odds for him.

Harris has nothing to say in a debate. When this debate finally takes place, I doubt Harris will get a high rating. It's going to be the same as Biden's. The is the same vice president that backed Biden's policies and if confronted with those issues by Trump who has all the bad mouth in the world, she's gonna crumble. This time she faces Trump with audience.

She may be winning in the polls but it looks like the same strategy done by Democrats in the past.

I'm taking my chances betting on Trump here knowing that Stake has a promotion that if a candidate gets more than 220 electors you are paid out as a winner.
Honestly I think it's going to be a tight race and I'm anticipating for the debates but Trump will most definitely get at least 220 electors I believe. The payout odds are too good given how good Trump's chances actually are looking at this point. He's not far behind Kamala on national polls at all. But in the U.S. elections aren't just a popularity contest, they're a race to get electors. 

I wish the terms of this promotion would allow bigger payouts and I'd bet more too.

Anyone else putting bets too? What's your thought process behind the bet?

I lost interest in predicting election results with polls during the 2016 presidential elections between Hilary Clinton and Donald Trump. The majority of the polls predicted that Clinton would win the elections. Biden's age and health concerns were impediments to the success of the Democrat's campaign. His poor performance in the presidential debate broke the camel's back. The election will be keenly contested but Haris have the advantage since she has the backing of the incumbent president. Trump's status as a convicted felon will also affect his chances of winning the election. So I am not surprised that Kamala's odd is 1.94 and Trump 2.20.     

It doesn't matter what the current quote values ​​are, only two things are important: 1. either Trump or Harris will definitely win 2. the sum of the quotes for Trump and Harris is greater than 4, which means there is value in this picks.
You missed my point about Harris - she is literally unelectable (in honest elections), she has the worst approval ratings and has never won any election. She was appointed, not elected, it's a scam.

They already saw that coming and have it planned out. Now, it looks like we have a 50-50 match between Trump and Harris. Just like a championship game, we’ll see if this is truly a close contest or if Harris is just media hype meant to mislead people. There's still a lot that can happen in the coming months, but I believe Trump’s camp has already built a lead in the real situation. They just need to continue what they’re doing and not disappoint the voting public.

Biden has already been overused and people don't like what he does when he became a president. That's why he's statistic declines and made him decide to step down since if he insist to run then this will be the easiest victory Trump will get.

But Democrats is really smart for inserting a replacement for Biden and they put Kamala Harris which is also strong then try to create a history in US then sell that to people. They know emotion somehow could gather votes and they want people to think that if they vote for Harris they will create a history and she will be the first female to became a President in history. Let see if this will happen or Trump will just totally eat them alive and take a heavy lead in election day.

Interesting, seeing Harris and Trump with the most likely odd Makes this obvious that they both have the most supporters amidst other candidates and are very likely to have most of the votes than others will, Trumps odd has been fluctuating but it's been within the range of 2.0 - 2.10 could this be a probable hint, nevertheless the voters are to decide best, Harris too is having a even more probable odds which I think is facilitated by the More awareness and attention she's got recently, but like the gambling on sports games, until the elections are over we don't know who the winner is going to be just yet,we keep making our bets and hope we stake right.

Great to see Harris having lower odds than Trump when I expected the reverse in literally every gambling site that offers such markets. If this was Biden, this would never have happened.

Looks like the Republicans and their fans are sweating now since it's going to go right down to the wire in a couple of months. Hope Harris ends up defeating that fat turd somehow.

It is now 1.94 for Kamala Harris.

In 2014 presidential election in my country, the president had the lowest odd while the person that won the election had the second lowest odd but higher than the president's odd. Also you can not just make conclusion when there has been no voting yet.

2.20 already.
It looks like easy money, but I won't bet on this market because the outcome won't be determined in a fair fight. It won't be the vote that decides everything, but the backroom games. Where are the guarantees that we won't see the miracles of postal voting again? The very fact that Harris is quoted at the same level as Trump is complete nonsense. It's already a scam.

Not allowed to vote cause I'm not an American Citizen on the account that I literally was born and is living in the Philippines, but with how things go it seems like it's choosing who's the lesser evil between the two, so in that case I'm gonna go for Kamala Harris. Trump's just got a lot of his dirty laundry aired out over the past few years and his run's not the best in my opinion (still way better than Biden's run honestly), and on top of that, he's got a lot of felonies on him, which will render him in jail as soon as he loses this run, and I don't want that on my president, or any other president for that matter.

I understand he's got a loyal following but for once, you guys might wanna think before casting your vote for him cause you're literally standing by someone who can cheat on his wife, commit multiple crimes, and still have the balls to stand for presidency.

Reminder that only American citizens of the United States are the allowed to vote in federal elections like the election of the presidency of the United States. So it does not make sense at all you are talking about Kamala Harris having a new collection of inmigrants who are willing to vote for her .  
An illegal inmigrants trying to vote in a presidential election is a serious crime which could be punished by several years in a federal prison, most of inmigrants do not even want to stand up and catch the attention of authorities.

Anyways... I did not expect Stake to have an special promotion/event on this presidential election at all, I was considering to have a stake on this election, by October of earlier November, however, this news are inciting for me to calculate the my odds as accurate as possible and place money on the table this very night.  

Someone told me that the pre election online voting in the US election was lead by Kalama Harris. Though US elections were mostly determined by online voting but I don't think this time around, Trump will lose. So if I am betting this on stake in the main election. I will bet on Donald Trump against Kalama Harris. passwordnow I saw 2.10 on Trump and 2.00 Kalama. Probably you didn't check well. I still crossed check again and the 2.00 is foe Kalama Harris and not Trump.

2.00 on Trump? I guess that's a good bet to put some money on. I haven't bet on this election yet and stake has adjusted the odds already since Biden is already out of the race. We'll see the others pulling out on this race when they have realized that they have no chance of winning. Anyone who have bet already on this race? I have been seeing lately videos about RFKJR about interesting things about him. I'm not sure if he's got a chance in the race because of his dad and uncle's name.

I remember saying something like: Kamala Harris might be Trump's new opponent, but someone else replied to my post if I recall correctly saying she is not contender or can’t compete against Trump at all. To be honest, I wasn’t entirely sure about her because I was just repeating what Id seen in the news. However, after days later she really started gaining popularity and now according to Stake she has more chance of winning.

US presidential elections are always fun to follow, they are full of thrill and interesting news.

I’m also a fan of Trump, particularly for his business acumen, his ideas, and his confidence However, he's still a politician, and I find it hard to fully trust or believe in politicians.

Bet all your money on Trump unless you’re a bitch 😆  seriously if you vote for Harris you’re gay. That is the end of story right there. No way in hell is our population that retarded to vote for this this unpresidential undeserving Harris cunt. I am so over this bitch and her diabolical laugh & stupid face lmao. Clearly you can tell I’m with Trump. I hope for Americas sake he wins, if he loses it is without a doubt a rigged af election just like the last one surely was.

Doesn't anyone mind that the odds of 2.0 and 2.05 have obvious value since one of the two main candidates will definitely win? Am I right in understanding that these are the odds for the outcome of "who will be the next president" and not the number of electoral votes received, etc.? I tried to clarify this point directly on the site, but due to VPN I can't access the rules in English lol.

Damn, Harris really had climbed the impossible beating Trump by the odds alone. I wonder if she could do it in reality. It's still pretty close though 2.00 vs 2.05 looks like nothing. It's only 5 votes away, it only needs 5 new fans of Tucker Carlson to vote but Harris also has millions of new immigrants allowed to vote. 

Nice promo. Election betting has never been promoted this much until the polymarket came so Stake is about to compete.

Kamala is only leading because he is winning on States that has high electoral vote count like Washington but Trump surely dominated most of the states which means just one of Harris winning state turn into Trump him will make the result have a big gap for Trump.

I think this is the best time to bet for Trump now that the odds are on 2.0. Usually the newly leading president candidate hype subsides when the election is near. I’m there will be a lot drama that will happen as the election day comes near.   

The moment Biden withdrew and Kamala took on, polls started being more favorable for Democrats. But it's not just a matter of polling. Candidates have till the election to win over the battleground states that don't seem locked in. Georgia, pensylvania etc. If Trump can make a good plan with some popular promises in these states he may stand a chance. Some say he has already lost Georgia due to being reckless but this will only show in the polls. Last election many states were very close too.

Currently looking at the market odds on stake.com at the moment Harris 1.94 vs 2.20 Donald Trump it seems that Trump's chances continue to increase is this possible because some of Harris's supporters are getting more, considering I know that previously Trump's odds were lower when Joe Biden did not resign.

From the odds Harris is favored I saw some news Harris could get more support from some parts of the region, this does not guarantee anything it seems to me that Trump will be the winner of the election.

Oh yes, there's no one that could stop Trump from winning as he has already gained the sympathy of the people. He won, he lost, and now he will win again. That's just my personal opinion, though, because I'm not a voter in the US. But based on what I've read and analyzed, I believe that Trump is going to win by a huge margin of votes. Social media and everything else are just trying to hype Kamala, but history won't be made yet as the first female president in the US.

I'll be honest, to be personally the new promotion Stake has is very enticing to make a bet on the presidential race. It makes gambling on this event seem like a much safer option.

Both in 2016 and 2020 the second comer int he election had over 220 electors behind them. Polls show the race is a particularly close race, some polls showing Kamala leading slightly and some Trump. Keep in mind that in the U.S. presidents aren't elected based on absolute majority but rather on a first past the post style system that elects an electoral college. Projections like in 270towin.com show that both parties have at least 220 electors locked in based on polling.

So Stake's offer to reward you as a winner even if your bet is on the second place presidential candidate so long as they had more than 220 electors seems very good. Of course things can change rapidly. But right now with odds for either Kamala or Trump being over 2.0 it sounds like a worthy endeavor. Will anyone be taking the chances?

Interesting stuff:

https://www.gosubetting.com/blog/betting-news/crypto-betting-on-2024-election/

It will be interesting to see who wins this election, I look at it from a purely gambling perspective. I would love to see a surprise, I'm tired of narcissistic/demented/lost old men, they should have all retired ages ago. But it is what it is, it looks like many people are certain of a Trump victory, and it seems like it's easy money.

There is still a lot of time before the election, the odds will change in the coming period. I still didn't place any place, for now, all I know is that I'm definitely not going to bet on Trump.

I think it would be a good bet to put a few bucks on Trump. Not sure how Harris turned the table as her promises are just bs. So are Trump's I suppose, but I am a fan of the anarchy Trump brings to the White House and media. At least he keeps it interesting.

Maybe it is reflecting the chance of winning. This is what Stake used to come about the odds:






But Kamala Harris is having 2 odds which Trump's odd is very close to. So the probably anyone between them both would win is almost 50:50. But regardless of who would win, I think using small amount of money on it would worth it.

When Harris comes into the picture, the odds for Trump changed a lil bit. And it seems that they are now favouring the side of Harris to be the next president. However, as you said, this will be on the favour of the bettor who is sticking to Trump, getting more than 2x of his initial bet.

Things get interesting based on the odds, but I’m still not going to change my prediction that Trump will win another term after a loss. I guess the odds are screaming 'get me,' and I was already fine with 1.50, but now it's over 2.00, so that's some kind of gift for us bettors who believe in his chances. Kamala came into the picture, and we saw this huge change. The question now is, do his odds really reflect his actual chance of winning, or are they just being overvalued due to some hype?

When I visited Stake on 9th of August, I saw it. If you visit Stake, you can clearly see it which you can click to select who tho win. Donald Trump odd was 2.05 at the time, but now the odd increased but with just little added to it.



When it was Biden versus Trump, I could remember that Trump odd was low.