Topic: USA: 50 years since the beginning of the oil embargo (Read 280 times)

"Palestinians make up the bulk of the population in the territory controlled by the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) (3.761 million people) and in Jordan (2.1 million people[19]). In addition, they live in Israel (Israeli Arabs - 1.54 million people) and the rest of the states of the Middle East region - Syria (44 thousand people), Lebanon (405 thousand people) and others. According to the Palestinian Bureau of Statistics, the number of Palestinians in 2021 is 13.8 million, of which 6.2 million live in Arab countries."

Sounds close to your theory, but as always there are nuances - the Palestinians living in Arab countries are those Palestinians who got there when ? That's a question I'll leave to you and we'll soon find out the real picture

Promoting the propaganda narrative of "massacre of Palestinian children" will not solve the problem that Hamas caused by using the local population as human shields. And the Hamas top brass openly says that they don't care about the Palestinians, and that they are just a crowd for Hamas, which they use to realize their terrorist acts, without hiding their words. So let's discard the narratives and bloody propaganda of Hamas.

About Egypt ... So Israel BEFORE the Hamas TERRORISTS attacked, helped the Palestinians, gave them jobs, the benefits of civilization, essentially supported them. Or do you have a selective memory, and you don't remember anything about October 7, you only remember when the counter-terrorist operation began ? Such an approach... does not "help" the people of Palestine...

You would do better to think about the millions of Palestinians who are being manipulated by the EU into calling for riots - it is not out of the question that they may eventually be deported from the countries containing them. By the way, the question is why do Palestinians, en masse (at least 50%) go to Christian Europe, where there are foreigners, different faith, unacceptable laws and rules, and not, for example, to Iran? Or Kuwait, or Jordan ? Answer honestly, at least to yourself....


And most importantly - in a thread about 50 years of oil embargoes, is it really worth promoting Hamas propaganda narratives ? There are other threads.

I will return to the topic of a possible repeat of the embargo. If you watch the market and the statements of market participants - many openly or not openly support the pro-Israeli position, and blame the real culprits for what is happening - Hamas terrorists. Even Iran, which lives by the idea of destroying Israel, has turned its back on them, because Hamas' actions are considered so despicable by regional countries. So there will be no repeat embargo because of this bloody spectacle.  But it would be very interesting to know who is behind the scenario !

Palestinian refugees live in neighboring Arab countries more than they do in EUROPE. They are the ones who have created this mess by relocating European Jews to Palestinian lands. Now it's time to take them back.

Egypt and Jordan weren't at least bombing Palestinians from the sky or trapping them with fences. You didn't answer my question about how you want to justify Israel's murder of children? I am not supporting hamas but killing innocent people, especially women and children by giving the excuse of doing an operation against hamas won't justify Israel's operation.

From now on, we need to call oppressors liberators exactly like Russia wants us to think of them. Hamas is the only one spreading propaganda who lives in a tiny area and Israel is spreading god words who have the full support of western government and media! What an - irony.

Huge numbers of Palestinians have been taken in by "foreigners" in Europe!  And fellow believers categorically refuse to accept them. The EU supports the Palestinians, pays allowances, and provides assistance. In response, however, they get mass riots. Probably you are right - it is time for Palestinians to go to their homeland and live there !

You have not answered the question - why do you have no claims to Jordan and Egypt, from the occupation of which the Palestinians were saved by Israel?

PS watch less Hamas propaganda, with fakes and dramatizations. And if you ask a question about civilian casualties, ask yourself a question - and who set them up, does not let them leave the war zone, cover themselves with them, fire from residential neighborhoods .... And please don't forget about Israeli casualties, because your opinion looks so one-sided.

Well, back to the topic of this section!
It is significant that more and more countries in the Middle East are blaming Hamas and their supporters for this massacre, soberly and objectively assessing what is happening!

This is good news because... attempts by Hamas and their masterminds to cause a collapse in the oil market are now clearly failing

This is a strategy, this is a step and this is an effort made by countries in the Middle East to suppress the power of western countries, so that they do not behave as they please. And indeed, related to the oil embargo and soaring oil prices, this will trigger long-term turmoil in the global oil market and will only cause suffering for society.

And what happened fifty years ago is very different from what is happening today, where the economy and trade continue to change, but oil remains the most dominant energy in the world. And every year regarding the demand and use of petroleum, from year to year it continues to increase.

No country wants to have permanent refugees, and why do the Palestinians need to live their lives in another country when they have been living in that land for generations? Why is Israel building its infrastructure in the West Bank by occupying Palestinian land? Israel freed the Palestinians from the oppression of Egypt and Jordan by becoming oppressors themselves! I admit what hamas is doing is not right but how do you explain the deaths of thousands of children and the bombing to civilians? Hamas actions can not justify their deaths. Israel has to take full responsibility for their action and the West needs to act like they do against russian operations in Ukraine.

You probably meant to say GROUPING. That's right - only the Hamas terrorist group and its "puppeteers," who live in luxury, far from what they "ordered," are to blame for the massacre and its aftermath. And the Palestinians have become hostages of the terrorists' morbid fantasies, their living proof, and material for the cruelest productions.

By the way, why do you gloss over the fact that Palestine was occupied for many years by Egypt and Jordan, and only Israel freed the Palestinians from the oppression of these invaders. And at the same time it gave Gazans jobs, full rights, the opportunity to live and build a future. And "brotherly" countries - categorically reject rescue and granting asylum on their territories to Palestinians? I would be glad to hear explanations !

Well and most importantly - in the economic topic, maybe we should not push propaganda, and still talk about the topic ?



That's because I love reality and truth. And some people try to manipulate data and information by pushing fairy tales about "you will all freeze and cease to exist without our oil and gas"

I will also add about gas, which is supposedly wildly expensive in the EU, which refused gas from Russia, enjoy the graph, from the real world :



The bottom line is that there will be no new global embargo and wild price rises. No matter how much anyone would like to ! Many countries in the region realized that they were being dragged into someone else's game to solve someone else's problems (rogue countries) and turned away from their support.

Yeah the development comes from supporting a country that is responsible for the deaths of thousands of children. What Israel is doing has been ignored by the West. Occupying west bank and murdering children is also a terrorism act. Hamas is not the only one doing the terrorism acts in this region.

What's the point in posting this over and over again? Fuel prices tend to fluctuate most of the time. They're going down now, in a few days they're going back up. I'm more concerned about retail prices at gas stations which are not falling but in some countries (Germany) they're doing just the opposite. In other words, common folks are feeling the pain while in fact sponsoring your country. 

well yeah.. the global energy landscape has been significant transformations in recent years, and the dynamics between OPEC and the fracking industry have evolved. OPEC's influence on oil prices has degraded somewhat due to the rise of fracking in the United States and other countries. As you mentioned, the surge in fracking production in the US forced OPEC to adjust its strategy and bring down oil prices to remain competitive. This suggests that OPEC's control over the prices is not absolute and can be challenged by technological advancements and alternative energy sources.

The Middle East still holds substantial power in the global oil market, with major oil reserves and big influence over production levels. China's growing energy demand has opened up new markets for OPEC oil, but it also means that OPEC have to compete with other regions for Chinese contracts. This competition can keep the prices lower than they might otherwise be.

Just the Facts:

Bloomberg: oil prices fall for the third week in a row
World oil prices are falling for the third week in a row, despite the record demand for fuel, the reduction of supplies by Saudi Arabia and fears of rising prices due to the conflict between Israel and "Hamas". Bloomberg draws attention to this. Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdul Aziz bin Salman blamed speculators for the price drop.

The price of benchmark Brent crude fell to a three-month low of $80 a barrel today, but the price has fallen about 5% in a week. The average WTA price is in the neighborhood of $76. Prices rose yesterday, November 9, following a statement from Saudi Arabia's energy minister that was similar to his criticism of speculators in May, weeks before the kingdom cut oil production.

The price of Brent crude has fallen about 13% in the past three weeks amid rising demand from China, the U.S. and Europe. Hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand points out that oil inventories were higher than expected due to production in the US and Iran.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-10/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-nov-10

"Some time" in best case scenario means a little more than a month.

US is the biggest consumer of oil (about 20 million barrels per day) and to cover that massive amount they import a large amount of oil (roughly 8 million barrels per day). Not to mention that US needs to import a ton of other petroleum products to refine the heavy oil they extract in order to be able to use it.
Now considering that US oil strategic reserves is currently sitting at 351 million barrels and if we assume in the case of embargo that import would fall to zero that means they can "keep their country running" for only 43 days.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W

Remember last year when the grain exports from Ukraine and Russia halted and other exporters stopped too? That's exactly what would happen in case of an embargo. Others will stop exporting too because they'll have to embrace for the price shoot up to control their own domestic prices.

They'll have no other choice but to move to renewable energies because the extractable oil supply in US is going down fast. If my calculations are correct in about 2 or 3 years the production would fall significantly and in less than 5 years there won't be any more oil in US left to extract.

P.S. I don't think the chances of embargo at this stage is high enough to be a concern. However remember that in case of an embargo the biggest problem is going to be the price. Last time in the short period of the conflict in the region followed by the embargo oil price went from around $4 to above $12. In other words it won't matter if US (or others) have reserves, the price will still be extremely high.

It is very unlikely it will repeat again, I think. Oil producers are now aware of the emergency reserves the United States have in order to keep their country running for some time in case of an embargo, also the United States has some allies which are actually Oil producers, they are not as big producers like Russia or China, but they would certainly help in case of an emergency. It comes to mind the Scandinavian countries and the United Kingdom.

To me, the embargo was a failure by Arab countries, in the end they did not stop USA from providing weapons to Israel and it only make oil infrastructure in the USA stronger and embargo-proof to some degree.

Also, USA becoming the leader in Oil extraction kinda goes against the campaign promises of Joe Biden if I recall correctly. He said it was possible to step down oil production and was willing to do it in favor of renewable energy.

Oil prices fall to 3-month lows: Chinese data raises demand concerns
Oil prices fell to a three-month low on Nov. 8 as weak export data from China raised concerns about global demand for fossil fuels.
About it writes Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/4d535605-bade-4130-8b9c-64b883cc47e8).

Thus, Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, fell by 0.3% and traded at $ 81.39 per barrel, while US WTI crude fell in price by 0.4% to $ 77.04 per barrel.

Chinese exports fell 6.4% in October from a year earlier, below the 3.3% drop forecast by analysts.

The moderate strengthening of the dollar, which gained about 0.6% this week against a basket of other major currencies, has also affected oil prices, making fuel more expensive for those holding other currencies.

These processes are also influenced by the increase of oil reserves in the USA (as much as one may dream otherwise  ). - Last week crude oil reserves in the U.S. rose by almost 12 million barrels, sources told Reuters, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute.

The world has something we can not know. Something causes very periodic, cyclic events like pandemic, wars, black swans, financial crisis, recessions.

Human don't change themselves, politicians don't change themselves and the world will be still led by most strongest, powerful nations. They will continue to be root causes of World Wars, geo-political conflicts world wide in future.

I don't think the world will be in complete peace mode in future and events like Israel - Palestine war, endless conflicts in the Middle East will continue to exist and reappear in future. Next 50 years exactly or sooner, later than 50 years, I don't know.

600 years of war and peace, in one amazing chart

They have also condemned Israel's war crimes. Cruel, merciless airstrikes on hospitals, schools, universities, ambulances etc...

Btw, embargoes don't work and never did. Here's the latest proof:




Source: https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/how-russia-games-oil-sanctions-for-big-profits-33b26342

Not bad news for the market - the UAE made the logical decision, and opposed the aggression of Hamas and their supporters. This means that the largest supplier of oil to the world market will not adhere to the concept of "economic terrorism" against the world economy.

"The UAE condemned Hamas' attack on Israel and hostage-taking
The UAE's stance differs markedly from the comments of most other Arab countries in the region, which held Israel responsible."

PS The basis is the Israeli-Emirati peace treaty, also the Abrahamic Treaty, - a treaty on normalization of relations between the State of Israel and the United Arab Emirates, signed on September 15, 2020. The UAE chooses development and the rules of the civilized world.

Nations have no friends.
Some said once, I guess Winston Churchill was that. And its true. 

We already saw it happen again just a few years ago. When it appears that OPEC was abusing it's stranglehold on the price of oil, America ramped up it's work on fracking and they were forced to bring prices back down again to compete - or even push the fracking industry back out of business. There is a very fine line where they are able to use their vast reserves, up until they make it so uncomfortable that countries start looking to other methods or even extracting it in more difficult ways. The world has come a long way since those days however, with the Middle East holding more power in the equation and having other places that it's possible to sell their oil, like China, but it'll always be at a cheaper price for the foreseeable future.

Along with current developments, the influence of the United States is increasingly fading day by day, several Middle Eastern countries have begun to reunite their relations which were previously fractured due to political tensions and conflicts that tried to divide them. And this peace can be realized after Saudi Arabia and Iran decided to reopen diplomatic relations and chose to join hands rather than continuing to escalate the conflict which would only further increase tensions in the Middle East. And as we know, these two countries are important countries in the Middle East, so this has triggered other countries in the Middle East to decide to do the same thing, namely make peace.
Several Middle Eastern countries are starting to realize and reveal who America really is. America is just a country that came to the Middle East like a hero who tried to mediate the conflict that occurred in the Middle East, but behind it all America was the culprit who tried to seize the wealth in the Middle East (Oil).

What makes you think that?
There is a huge difference between armies of conscripts and an armee of professionals.


Because an aircraft carrier is from the 70s its tech could well be from 2015.

This is actually what the United States succeeded in achieving. Assigning agents to carry out the war to achieve its interests on its behalf, and the United States, instead of developing its military fleet, sells weapons to its agents.
Facts have changed radically since the 1970s, and Western powers are never in a position to contain a similar crisis. Likewise, the Arab countries that supported the ban. It is no longer in its interest to take such steps without taking into account its own interests, which have become closely linked to Western countries.

You will forgive me for speaking harshly, but people are a resource that can be attracted for money and sent to war.
Why spend huge resources on supporting Israel where the chances of winning are almost impossible, and large territories will require large investments that Israel does not have.

I think that the United States cannot wage a full-fledged war in the east. Their aircraft carriers are old and more like a large floating target that is destroyed by a supersonic missile. Therefore, wars have always been successfully waged by puppet politicians.

I think that there is a lot of oil in the USA, but the fields are either closed or not being explored due to government policy. With an oil price of 80-90 dollars per barrel, it is profitable to sell it even from the USA.
On the one hand, if your calculations are correct, then the United States must exert political pressure on Israel in order to end the conflict, otherwise if other countries enter the conflict, the price of oil may rise to $150 per barrel.

Here it is necessary to clarify exactly which region you are talking about because America has actually lost its political influence on the Asian side, and for this reason some may imagine that it is no longer able to confront the Gulf region and the Middle East alone. But on the other hand, it succeeded in having a greater influence on the countries of the Arab Gulf and the Middle East using various mechanisms. Neither Saudi Arabia nor any classic power in the Gulf region is capable of challenging the United States and the world today as it did in the seventies. The United States took a lesson from what happened, especially after OPEC failed at that time to limit the effects of the embargo. At the same time, those countries that succeeded in influencing the economies of major countries at that time no longer think about using the same pressure again because of the policies of connections of interests.

What do you mean by "main"? You know that US is the biggest consumer of energy and currently despite the high production, they face a deficit of about a 7 million barrels of oil per day. They cover that huge deficit by importing oil from mainly West Asia.

Because of this massive consumption and deficit US can never become a major global supplier. The reason why you see a country like Saudi Arabia export this much oil is because they have a tiny domestic consumption (3 million bpd I believe)!

You mean the Strategic Oil Reserves?
Over the past year because the oil production by OPEC in general and also oil exports to US has decreased, that has forced them into releasing their strategic reserves at about 2-3 million barrels per day to cover the difference. It is currently sitting at its lowest.

I did some calculations a while back that if I recall it correctly those reserves at best case scenario (no embargo) would last us less than a year. But in case of an embargo (7 million deficit) they would last about a month or two considering the ridiculously huge oil consumption by United States which is between 19 to 20 million bpd.

Another problem is that the oil US has which they are extracting is also running out! At this rate of extraction it will only last 3 or 4 more years. As you may know, when you tap into these resources their extraction becomes harder. In other words if today they are extracting something like 12 million bpd, next year they will be able to extract less like 9 million bpd because of pressure drops and other complications as it reaches the end.
That means the 7 million bpd deficit would grow even bigger.

You mean the embargo? It's hard to say but right now I'd say the chances are little to none. If things take a turn for the worse it is possible though.

In theory it might be possible but in reality it will be impossible to achieve again.
The embargo will never happen because the US and EU will not lose a political influence in the middle east, rich countries there still need US and EU.
Too many factions in the middle east, and many of them busy fighting with each other.

And i think the withdrawal from Afganistan is a smart move, why would US waste money, resources, and human lives for a corrupt gov who done nothing but only waste the money from the US tax payers?
Well, US is the one who lose interest on Afganistan.

I think that the US will lose political influence. The first call was the withdrawal of the army from Afghanistan. Direct global conflicts are unlikely due to the presence of nuclear weapons in many countries, but economic wars will exhaust opponents. The US and Europe will not win a guerrilla war against a billion people in the Middle East.

Much has changed since that date, and it seems that the United States and the rest of the world powers have understood the lesson. These countries have begun to adopt policies to contain countries that have banned the export of oil and gas to them. Today, all countries in the region are friends of the United States, and the United States has military bases in all of those countries, and I mean here Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the Emirates, in addition to overthrowing the Iraqi regime and continuing pressure on the Iranian regime. Do you really think that there are those who still dare to carry out these movements that are hostile to the direct interests of the West?

Things were different since 1971, and the United States’ dependence on oil or the US dollar on the petrodollar agreement is no longer what it was in the past. Therefore, trying solutions of the past will not change reality. In addition, any oil crisis will affect China, which is a strategic goal for some countries that may try to hinder Chinese development, in short. Energy is an effective weapon in a state of peace, such as influencing voter attitudes and changing political orientations, and it is less effective in a state of war.

Theoretically yes. Practically - no, at least not in that format. In 1973, this was a full-fledged agreement between countries with some common interest. At that time, this was a response to the help of the West, and primarily the United States, in favor of Israel, which defeated the armies of several countries. Historically, it sounded like this: "...the Arab countries that are members of OAPEC*, as well as Syria and Egypt, announced their refusal to sell their oil to countries that supported Israel in the war with Syria and Egypt."

*OAPEC is a permanent international organization. The organization has 11 members: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia and the UAE.

But, 50 years have passed. And many of these countries have qualitatively, mutually beneficially integrated into the Western economy, and live very well from this.

Conclusion 1. In this situation, if the attempt at a new “oil embargo” is supported, it will be by a noticeably smaller number of countries. Moreover, the largest players, whose incomes depend on oil consumption by the Western world, will definitely not support it.

After this, the United States and other countries that survived the embargo began to actively develop oil production in their own countries in order to protect against such antics. And they succeeded.

Conclusion 2. If you try to repeat the embargo, a commensurate loss will not be achieved to the countries against whom it was started.

We take into account that this process today was provoked not by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but by a certain group of rogue countries that are facing big problems because of their status. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is quite a staged production to incite a new large-scale war that will lead to a geopolitical confrontation between the West and the Middle East, with the possibility of strong negative pressure on oil production in the region.
Also, taking into account the “methods” of economic terror, I will assume that the initiators of the new oil crisis are even more interested in the destruction of oil production in the region than in a controlled embargo. They need total benefit from the global crisis in the oil market.

Conclusion 3. There will not be an embargo in the form that was in 1973, we assume that it will simply be a global military conflict, which “by accident” will cause very serious destruction and complicate oil production in the region, which will lead to global, previously unseen problems in everything world.

https://www.bbc.com/russian/international/2013/10/131016_us_oil_embargo_anno
"October 17, 2023 marks 50 years since the start of the 1973 Arab oil embargo. On the eve of this anniversary, it was announced that the United States is about to become the main producer of oil and gas on the planet, leaving behind the current champions - Russia and Saudi Arabia.

The embargo was declared on October 17, 1973 in response to US President Richard Nixon's order for Operation Nickel Grass, which supplied US weapons to Israel. The latter was at that moment repelling attacks from Egypt and Syria, who intended to return the territories captured by the Israelis during the Six-Day War of 1967."

I think everyone has long forgotten about this story, but after it the United States began to accumulate oil reserves.
The situation in the world is very difficult now, but do you consider repeating such a scenario in 50 years?