Topic: USA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2020: Michael Moore says Trump on course to win ! (Read 1017 times)

trump will return,

this short temporary rule by these sellouts and traitors will continue to finish off the last bit of trust and legacy and will further expose the democrats as the criminals that they are.

it will be for the whole nation every, single soldier citizen and policeman to see how the democrats are willing to sell out the property, freedom, human rights and dignity of every single american to the rest of the world (defund police + open border policy) and it will end them. not just in america but also in the entire western world.

no one will want to have anything to doe with these lefto liberal pseudo antiracist social justice warriors anymore.

only corrupt and criminal people will end up siding with them, but only termporarily till they get what they want, then the corrupt will also rob their democrat sellout idiots.

americans will end up begging trump to return becomming president, and trump might even become president/dynasty for decades.

the democrats will destroy themselves in this biden presidency its already beginning

there wont be even any more elections after that because no one will after that still trust the corrupt sellout democrats

this guy thinks like i do

"comming democratic collapse" by ben shapiro
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=042aUnbJysA&ab_channel=BenShapiro

Well the evidence clearly suggest Michael Moore was right. If those Democrat voters did not turn out in large numbers Trump would have been re-elected. Thankfully the whole world can move on from this sorry episode of the previous 4 years and simply move forward with a new US administration.

Yeah it's crazy to imagine that days before the election, people have already voted more in Texas than last time in total. It reinforces my idea that the election is basically already over, whatever happens now cannot change the result.

Also, I don't think campaigning in a "purple" state like Texas is a waste for the Democrats even if they don't win it, the closer it gets, the better chance they have to win it next time. More people will engage with the party, become interested, etc. When you're in a solid red (or solid blue) state it's more difficult to be on the other side as you will face a lot of backlash and few prospects of winning an election.

I'm French but I have a cousin in the USA, French born and immigrated as a kid, he just moved from California to Texas for work (pro Fortnite gamer). A lot of people do that, that's why the state is turning purple.

I did some digging around out of curiosity and went back to the 2018 senate race of Cruz vs. Beto and was surprised at how close the race was despite what the polls were saying - https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tx/texas_senate_cruz_vs_orourke-6310.html

Average of +6.8 Cruz, yet he finished only +2.6. Maybe that's why everyone is so obsessed with Texas turning blue. Kamala Harris was out campaigning in the state and I can't imagine that the Biden camp would waste resources there unless their internal polling said it was worth it. Trump's RCP average is about +2.3

Texas already broke voter turn out records. Just some food for thought.

Well apparently Trump is the best fundraiser ever so surely he can invest everywhere ?

New polls.

https://www.unf.edu/coas/porl/Recent_Polls.aspx
Biden 48, Trump 47.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/georgia-2020-showdown-in-presidential-and-us-senate-races
Georgia 47 Biden, Trump 48.


Florida, obviously a brutally competitive state. But what's more surprising is Trump's barely hanging on in Georgia. Thought that was a freebie state, but he'll actually have to invest resources into winning that state, which takes away the resources he could be using in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. Pretty sure he needs at least one of these states to get over 270 when you work the electoral map and give all the toss up states to Trump (which that in itself is an extreme obstacle).

Yes, this is what Twitch and I were discussing. If you did work and got checks, and deposited them you'd be using what is called a "Schedule C" or sole proprietor style of tax reporting. Granted a lot of people  would just cash the checks and not bother with this, but let's say a "real business" is one that nets more than 10k or 50k per year.

Somewhat OT to this but still an interesting thought is that in the digital eCommerce age how many small businesses do not exist on paper.
People selling on eBay, etsy, Amazon, etc. They are making a living but doing it all themselves or with a partner but never really filed the paperwork or anything else.

How many freelancers are out there doing web design / programming work and just depositing the checks so to speak?

-Dave

And a lot of those Schedule C's are hobby businesses, or various small fry stuff.

But the Trump tax reforms benefitted Sch C, 1120, 1120S...

And as far as "benefitting the large corporations," didn't he say he was cutting them a break to get those companies to come back on shore? I think that was a separate tax law change.

A LOT of small businesses don't use the Corporate Structure.

A LOT of small business use the Corporate structure, and file taxes using the 1120 form. Entities such as docs and legal sharks use the 1120S. Others use the Schedule C on the regular 1040.

I have the impression that they were all seriously benefiting from the Trump tax reform. Haven't looked up numbers on it, though. But clearly cutting the top rates and increasing Section 179 depreciation to 2M per year is huge.

Of course, the poor people who will probably vote Democrat, don't have vehicles that they can drive all over Phoenix in. Check out the pix.


PHOTOS: Pro-Trump parade stretching for miles goes through Phoenix area

One major problem IMHO is all the lying about what the other side will do or wants to do. These are getting to be pretty tired old memes trotted out over and over in every election cycle, and they really won't help move things forward.

Bolded above, pretty much inaccurate. If you check the sources and amounts of contributions to congressional and senate candidates, you will find most small business is to the Republican, and big business, labor unions, teachers unions and such contribute to Democrats.
[/quote]

Yeah I wasn't saying that small businesses donate to Democrats or anything along those lines. I was moreso saying that Republicans need to get out of the mindset of helping large businesses more often then they help small businesses. Things like lowering the corporate tax rate is great, but it does help big large profitable businesses moreso then small businesses which may be bringing out a small profit every year.

Taking another look at payroll taxes would help both large and small businesses alike. Deducting expenses more easily, making filing easier, etc.

I don't think squatz was implying that small businesses that donate to political campaigns are more likely to donate to Democrats.  Not sure why you responded as if he did.

Since 2016 USA presidential election could not be rigged  which brought Trump as the president of US in Democratic party which stand as the ruling party in the country.
 Joe Biden who is the one try to challenge Trump in up coming election which many billionaire are back Biden up to become a winner for the up coming election. Show money will really flow in this general election.
Trump will surely win this upcoming election because he has improved in the areas of economy and other sectors in the country. I think Trump will still wine this coming election because he has done well in his first term.

One major problem IMHO is all the lying about what the other side will do or wants to do. These are getting to be pretty tired old memes trotted out over and over in every election cycle, and they really won't help move things forward.

Bolded above, pretty much inaccurate. If you check the sources and amounts of contributions to congressional and senate candidates, you will find most small business is to the Republican, and big business, labor unions, teachers unions and such contribute to Democrats.

In any functioning democracy there will be people that have the same mindset as yours and that is great. You happen to agree with some Republican policies and probably will agree with some Democratic ones. Each voter will have to make their decision based on the policies of the parties as well as the people standing as candidates. Jobs, economy and foreign policy are just a few important factors to name but these will be kept in mind by those heading to cast their votes.

30% would be fair (after taking into account the inflation), only if applied to large-sized gains (such as above $250,000 per year or so). I don't think that this rate should be applied to investments being made by the middle-class households.

India was just an example. There are safer options out there. For example, in Canada only half of the realized capital gains are taxable. I believe in Australia also it is the same. In some of the European countries, the rate is much lower. For example, Croatia (12%), Hungary (15%) and Israel (15%).

Just as something to know, this is not me saying that I'm a major democrat or something. I'd say that I agree with the Republicans on tax policy and such, probably lean more on the libertarian side of things for some policies as well.

But yes, I would totally agree with what I said before about the economy. Regular peoples incomes and jobs are not indicated well on the stock market for obvious reasons. Republicans have to start caring about small businesses in America and advocating for pro small business policies. Kinda disgusting that I have to listen to Joe Biden to hear him say things about small businesses and such.

But.... sigh... here we are.

At last someone else on the internet who gets it.

The stock market it not the economy.
Crap low paying jobs are not the same as skilled jobs / trade jobs.

And my favorite. Ignoring change and advancement because you don't like it does not mean that it's going away.

-Dave

Polls have limited accuracy, they predict people's intention to vote but they predict it at the moment the question is posed. Not only that, but also based on the outcome of a poll, people's intetion to vote changes, therefore, polls may affect the outcome of the elections. Right now, Trump is losing badly in the polls so what will the Trump supporters do? They will make sure they won't miss out on voting, and some of the Democrats may relax and consider to skip voting, especially if they plan on doing it in the last minute and come across some long lines.

Whoa, this is a real well thought out post here that I'd have to say I agree with.

I think the Republican party (not republican voters) has been fixated on the stock market which is not something that everyday people care about. Continuing to talk about how the market is reaching new highs is not something that people who lost their jobs in Pennsylvania, West Virgina, Michigan, etc. Stock prices going up doesn't change the fact that coal jobs are most likely gone, manufacturing too (esp auto), etc.

That doesn't even take into account Corona, which has killed so many peoples lives while the stock market is doing just fine.

But yes. It's the economy stupid. AND THE REAL ECONOMY, not the stock market.

I think a lot comes back to the saying "it's the economy stupid" I'll add it's also about the money. There were another 900k +/- people filing for unemployment this week. A lot of people are seeing their jobs leaving and not coming back.

The people who were doing well, had $$$ in the bank and a secure job and skills to get another one are fine. But, there are a lot of people who are seeing their unemployment run out, having to worry about how they are going to pay for food and other things and accurately or not blaming the current administration.

I also said it a while back, with the changes to the SALT deduction there were a lot of people, outside of what people considered the "blue cities" with high taxes that took a big hit.

I have a good friend who has been a 100% Republican line voter over since 1988 voted 100% democratic in 2018 and is going to do it again in 2020. The entire community where he lives in a solid red state is now blue and that says something. Why? because it's all large private land owners. Even at dirt cheap property tax rates, due to the large plots of land they all own it was still a big number they they could write off. Now they can't and it hurt. $5 an acre for unimproved land in taxes is nothing. Until every plot is miles and miles on each side. The surrounding area also used to be red was purple in 2018, going to be interesting to see how 2020 turns out there.

Just my view.

-Dave

Here is the one really got me thinking, a Fox News poll puts Biden way ahead of Trump 53% to 42%, even Fox News think unless something drastic changes that moves momentum towards Trump and the GOP, it will be Biden and Harris that will walk in to the White House: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/biden-trump-poll-lead-wall-street-journal

Why that user would claim an 80% chance of Trump getting re-elected is way beyond me. I agree that pollsters were wrong about Trump/Clinton in 2016 as well as Brexit and so on but this one the way things are going will be a big surprise if Trump gets re-elected. Biden and the Democrats are not doing anything special to pull voters to him, it is Trump that is doing damage to his own campaign by pushing voters way from him and the Republicans.

Yeah that prediction is literally straight out of his ass. I understand that MANY people are saying 'well the polls were wrong for Brexit, and the polls were wrong in 2016, so the polls still don't matter' - I personally just don't think that line of thinking is going to be true.

You'd think that pollsters would be more cautious and learn from their mistakes in 2016 to ensure that it won't happen again. Cause if they failed AGAIN then we'd never even look at a poll as meaning anything. Plus, this isn't like one poll saying that Trump is going to lose -- it's tons of polls in aggregate. Also they're not just national polls, they're state polls from states that Trump needs to win to win the EC.

I'll agree with you in saying that Trump may be able to pull this around, though I wouldn't just randomly spit out numbers and say that is the chance that Trump wins without any backing.

How did you conclude he has an 80% chance of re-election? Did you get that information online? I ask because every single poll from any  reputable source is showing Trump will lose the election.

It could be 30% as I said, it seems fair to me. Some people have too much money to invest, so they will invest, no matter what. In part because of all the money printing going on, that isn't going in the hands of the people needing it the most.

Investing in India is scary. If some money is diverted there, it's not a problem, but I wouldn't be surprised to learn that more money is invested from India to the US than the reverse.

US citizens still have to pay taxes on investments in other countries. I assume it's the same for the UK.

If there is 60% tax on capital gains, then who is going to invest in stocks and real estate? For the rich, nowadays it is very easy to purchase passports from smaller nations such as Dominica and Antigua. This allows them to invest in stock markets outside their nation with relative ease. Only the middle-class will get affected by this sky-high tax rate.

Just to give an example, the capital gains tax in India is 10%. And the Indian stock markets have performed at the same level, or even better when compared to the stock markets in US or the UK in recent times. So what prevents the rich from moving their assets form the US/UK to countries such as India?

Capital gains tax in my country used to be the same as income tax, with a cherry on top, so about 60%. 23,8% is nothing in comparison. It has now been lowered to 30% and most concerned people find it's a good compromise (hardcore leftists are unhappy of course). For small investors (most people) as long as you use a special account the tax is 0%, the account can be filled up to 150000€ and you need to wait 8 years before getting money out to have the 0% tax.

15% in the US for multi millionaires and billionaires is clearly too low, even they are starting to say it out loud. They're basically hoarding all the cash the state is printing, with zero benefit to the economy or the common people.

All that graph says is that Money Printer went Brrr during certain periods. If you have the Fed go reckless and print tons of paper money with nothing to back it of course people are going to shovel it into stocks. PE ratios going up 2 to 3x what they were in the past doesn't mean economic growth, it means exuberance with no basis in reality.

The measure of success from an economic engine is GDP and quality of life. Quality of Life is very hard to measure. GDP is much more calculable.

Many people believe that Trump is will not win the election, but if you look a the scene he has the balls on his hands to play, he is a very smart man and a hardcore businessman that will do almost everything to success. I see him with 80% chances of winning again. History repeats itself.

Whoever told you that is a lying liar.
Dow Jones growth for last 4 presidents by months in office:


https://www.macrotrends.net/2481/stock-market-performance-by-president

Pretty crazy considering everything the president has said about the market huh?

Obama was good for non-Americans, but he was a disaster for the American economy. His socialist policies wrecked the stock market and he increased the long-term capital gains tax from 15% to 23.8% (one of the highest rates across the globe). The federal debt ballooned by a massive $9 trillion during his 8 year term (remember that GW Bush with his Iraq war could add only $4 trillion during his 8-years). And also, his foreign policy was amateurish, with ISIS and other terrorist organizations being able to spread their power.

Trump 2024, if it takes a Limited Con-Con to make it happen.

it is just different type of a person, that was liked all around the world, because he is nice to see and hear, Trump has different nature, like to sworn, attack other people, and most of people do not like this, so it is not that liked

that being said, i do not think that Trump will lose the elections, he is targeting people in countries that will decide the elections, do not care about countries that are always for democrats/republicans, and do not care about anything else than to win the elections at the moment, which could not be said as bad for a politician, while Biden is trying to stay relevant on all subjects and will maybe won more votes, but lose the elections

Obama was liked in Europe, W Bush wasn't. US Republicans in general are not liked in Europe, however Trump is at another level, it's hatred not just dislike.

The idea that Europe influences US politics is preposterous. Yes some Democratic politicians are today advocating for European style things like universal healthcare and free/cheap higher education, simply because these things work very well in Europe, nobody is complaining about them. In fact even in the US plenty of people complaining about Obamacare and wanting it destroyed are on Obamacare...

When I say Obama was liked in Europe, I mean as a US president. He did nothing for Europe, he didn't really care. But he wasn't antagonistic like Trump is, going against everybody.

Certainly in the past Europe has had a huge impact on the US. At present, though? I'm not convinced. I think you are downplaying the importance and strength of the US here. Everyone in the world always has eyes on the US as the leading Western nation, and more so since the rise of China as a second superpower. The US stands by itself, and Europe, particularly the UK, follows along behind on the path the US sets.

But it is important - for anything - to view it from the outside as well. I'm not trying to use those surveys to belittle Trump, I'm simply highlighting the disparity between how Trump is viewed in Europe, and how he's viewed inside the US, and suggesting reasons for the huge difference. I do think the primary reason is his isolationism and withdrawing the US from its role as a global leader. Europe since WW2 has become accustomed to having the US as its defender; the future is now less certain. Xenophobia is on the rise everywhere, as is racism. The US may be retreating from the world stage, but it has lost none of its internal power, and its power to lead and influence other nations. What the US does doesn't just affect the US, it affects everyone.

Many of the problems the US has had in the past, and to some fair extent the current issues including the violence, are due to direct influences of your European Fabian-socialists or indirect influences of them. 

If you'd get your international meddlers out of the US, and in particular out of the US Democratic party, you'd see much less crazy here.

As for Euro-opinions of Trump you know a choice place or two where those can go.

I'm just going to throw these in for some wider perspective on how the election is viewed from outside the US. It's a summary of surveys from individual countries, but tells a consistent story. 1000+ participants in each, so fairly small... but consistent.
It's interesting how the view of both Trump and the election itself are hugely negative across Europe. It indicates I think that Trump is viewed as a leader who is bad for Europe, rather than that he's bad for the US. Probably due in large part to his revival of US isolationism, but perhaps also indicative of some pro-Trump media bias within the US. The lack of faith in the fairness of the election process in the foremost western democratic nation is quite shocking.





_{https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/08/minority-of-europeans-think-us-election-will-be-free-and-fair-poll}

Clinton was up like 4 points at this point in the election last year. And Trump won by like ~50k votes in that election by winning 3 or 4 battleground states. Not at any point was Trump this far off from her. IIRC Trump was consistently down 4-8 points and was down an average of 4 or so points leading up to election day.

What was the most Hillary was ahead in the polls against Trump? Was it a larger lead than 14 at any given point?

Last time I bet on a presidential election (in my country) was 2007, I bet against the nasty candidate and lost, so I won't bet against Trump. But as things stand (and as things can go in the remaining time) I don't see how Trump can win, even if he cheats.

Trump cancelled all the talks on working with Nancy Pelosi to agree upon Covid stimulus checks sum yesterday.

By doing this he most likely has lost a great deal of his supporters because a lot of people really counted on that money.

CNN did a poll post Trump COVID and it's about what we expect.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/06/politics/cnn-poll-biden-trump-2020-election/index.html

Biden's leading by 14. Since we're about a month away, that's still enough time for the shock factor of Trump getting COVID to wear down which might bring national polling a bit closer but obviously Trump still has a lot of ground to make up.

However, all that mailed-in voting is popular votes. Rather, it is the Electoral votes that count in the election.

If anybody accuses an Electoral delegate from voting incorrectly - voting not according to the popular vote of his state - the accuser will have to prove it according to mail-in votes. The proving attempt might wake people up to the fraud in the mail-in voting.

In other words, all this mail-in voting talk is stupid. Focus on the Electoral College.

I did not know that 2016 brought in just 10,000 mail voters yet over 1 million have voted so far and counting. For the sake of clarity to avoid allegations of corruption from either side it would all be about the ratio of mail votes that would be counted in Republican held states vs Democratic held states. One side will definitely dispute the other therefore I see this going to court for judges to award the Presidency unless there is a landslide victory for one of them.


EDIT: I just watched a political commentator who mentioned that over 3 million votes have been cast and a further million are being sent out 

the only flu to kill more then 200,000 usa 🇺🇸 citizens was the spanish flu.

but we have had flu seasons kill as many as 120,000.

so to say 207,000 is barely more then 120,000 is meh almost wrong almost right.

wait til feb 1 and see if it goes to 300,000.  I would argue 300,000 vs 120,000 is certainly not barely.

My estimates are that the worst this flu could do to usa 🇺🇸 are around 600,000 to 1,200,000

Still does not make it way worse then the flu but surely worse then any flu other then the spanish flu.

We also have a new issue Trump is sick with covid-19.

In the hospital.

Trump will win because he has stepped out with Covid, sort of. While Trump is out, Dr. Scott Atlas is bringing the truth about Covid from the Whitehouse in ways that the CDC can't refute. Covid is barely, if any more dangerous, than the flu. Trump will win because his administration is freeing us all from Covid... but especially from our fear.

What a show of sock-puppets this time!

Even with the pandemic, they're expecting record setting voter turn out.  Over 1 million people have already voted, at this point in 2016 that number was less than 10k.

The voter turnout is going to be at record low levels for this election. Apart from the COVID 19 pandemic, there are opinion polls which claim that a large part of the American population is not supporting either of the two candidates. Some may go out and vote for third party candidates as a protest, but the vast majority will simply abstain from voting.

In my country voting machines were introduced recently in some cities, but have been mostly rejected, we still vote "by hand". Of course we don't hold many elections at the same time, the presidential election is just that, we vote for one single person. The name is written in large font on a piece of paper, pretty simple (if you know how to read, of course...).

When I look at the US paper ballots, they're frighteningly complex !

If anybody can walk into an unguarded voting machine warehouse, nobody knows who will win anything, right?


Random Journalist Enters Unguarded Philly Warehouse Where 'Memory Stick' Voting Machines Stored

But Michael Moore has already called it.

As per your own post the writing is clearly on the wall, this one has to go to court for the judges to decide who gets in to the White House unless of course one candidate manages an indisputable landslide win over the other without the mail voting being a major factor.

Keep in mind Trump has been complaining about the 2016 election, ranting about Hillary, voter fraud, etc., for 4 years, even though he won ! So there is no doubt he will do the same for 2020, in fact he's already doing it. That should exclude you from even being a candidate, but alas it isn't written in the constitution that you actually have to accept the election result...

Trump is going to use the whole mail voting issue to create a new drama. It is clear if he wins re-election he is will gladly accept it but if he loses the election then he will cry foul about the mail votes.

I was not impressed at all with the manner in which Trump conducted himself in the television presidential debate. Biden was not too much better but I think he came out better than Trump in the end and somewhat thwarted the plans Trump had for him.

Totally agree with this. Biden is not on the same level of swampiness (or perceived swapiness) as Clinton. To most people Biden is just a guy who's been in politics for a long time, served as Bidens loyal VP for 8 years and that's really it. I think Obama is one of the saving forces of his campaign, b/c without the African American vote Biden's campaign would've been dead a LONG TIME AGO.

Clinton was just horrible. Biden isn't perceived the same way that Clinton is. No one thinks Biden is just offing people in the offtime, and Biden's wife doesn't have sex scandals that were buried.

So yeah, Dem turnout will be higher this year no DOUBT. Debate tonight though may turn the tides, we'll see.

Mail in ballots will favor Joe Biden. There's a bias between democrats and republicans between how they perceive the danger of coronavirus, so more democrats than republicans will be sending in mail in ballots. At this point, I think Trump needs to win in convincing fashion in key swing states to overcome Joe Biden's wave of mail in ballots that'll slowly trickle in after election day, and I don't think it's impossible for Trump to do this, but I think it's unlikely.

On election day, RCP's polling average gave Clinton a ~3pt average lead, and Trump was able to narrowly win by something like 50k votes in 3 swing states. RCP now versus Biden shows the polls are brutal for Trump.

Trump in 2016 was able to walk away with states that Mitt Romney lost in 2012 despite getting fewer votes than Romney in these states. Basically, an even lesser turnout for the Republican nominee in 2016 relative to 2012 yielded state wins for Trump. People absolutely hated Hillary Clinton and did not show up to the polls to vote for her, but Joe Biden's more likeable so I think he'll yield a higher turnout.

When all the polls were forecasting a landslide victory for Hillary Clinton, it was Michael Moore that said Trump would win.

And now Michael Moore is saying that the left and the anti-Trump voters have taken it for granted they will vote Trump out of office therefore he is warning of an even bigger win for Trump than he did in 2016 unless those people actually ensure they vote.

The first television debate between Trump and Biden will be interesting. I think Biden will struggle because he seems to be coming across as fragile, frail. Trump will probably walk all over Biden in the television debate even though he would have the opportunity to use the whole tax returns drama against Trump. I think Biden will probably fail to capitalise.

What does Michael Moore know that we don't know? I don't think he is a credible source for predictions. We all know Michael Moore has a  political agenda himself. I wouldn't bet on his recommendations. At the moment it still looks pretty close between Trump and Biden, the election could go either way. Maybe best to wait for the TV debates.

Obsessed with using brute force to quell protests?

Not exactly what's occurred here in the USA.

I never looked at it from that perspective before. He does seem to be obsessed with using brute force to quell protests.

We know who is obsessed with guns and ammo... Well, except for Trump, apparently he hates guns : https://news.yahoo.com/michael-cohen-reveals-trump-hates-083500509.html

First of all there will not be a civil war in the USA based on disputed Presidential election results.

Secondly, why blame a hypothetical civil war on the left? Will the right be completely innocent if anything like a civil war prevailed?

He also promised to make america great again.  And, by pretty much every metric, it's not.

I don't think it's really the same thing as 2016. In 2016 Trump was the outsider not doing a classical campaign, who himself didn't expect to win. Hillary was the "chosen one".

Today, despite Trump's flaws, he's the incumbent. Most sitting presidents manage to get reelected, as bad as they are (W Bush anyone ?). The fact that Trump is behind in the polls is a testament that he's worse than bad. But he can still make it.

So why do you think chances of Trump winning are probably slimmer than in the 2016 election? Even if he wins on the night he could lose when mail votes are counted and the same goes for Biden.

This one will end up in Court...

So is the cool thing, from the media, for everyone to say that Trump is going to win? Guess the 2016 'Trump is TOTALLY going to lose' is something that backfired, and now makes everyone who said it seem dumb. So as a reverse of that, all of them are now trying to turn the tables on it and all come out and say that Trump is going to win.

Honestly -- if you want Biden to win, the best thing to tell Biden voters is that Trump is on course to win. That'll make them more exicted to vote. If you tell them that Biden is going to win, they're going to think (or typically they would) think it's a sure thing and that they don't need to do anything. I think the Dems learned their lesson in 2016 though with Clinton and taking things for granted. We'll see in 2020 if those people that sat at home are going to vote for Biden, or they're going to sit at home again.

Democrats and Republicans both have their fringe elements to the extreme left and to the extreme right, neither made any rationale for a civil war though. There will be a problem with mailing votes but to which extent the loser of the election (either Trump or Biden) use it as a distraction or excuse remains to be seen.

here is one article that could be interesting, and i share author thinking
https://medium.com/better-marketing/trumps-latest-move-against-biden-is-pure-marketing-genius-fd908666c485

it is referring to the marketing campaign that Trump is starting to put on, and seems that he has much better marketing strategy than Democrats

it is a video from the article
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kw-KH9csjSc

Didn't think of income level, interesting. Are Cubans in Florida really that well off? 

Florida's obviously a coin toss but they've been voting red last two election cycles. I wouldn't be completely shocked if Florida went for Trump again with latinos swinging it in his favor but who knows if they'll turn out.

Marist also just released two FL polls showing Trump +1 in Fl in and dead heat on the other with Latinos supporting Trump 51%.

I assume it's the Miami/Tampa Cubans that are swinging the hispanic vote like you said.  Another thing to consider though is that the Cuban population is generally older and make more money than other minorities (aside from asians probably).

I wonder if his decision to tighten sanctions on Cuba are viewed as a good or bad thing by American Cubans in general.  I assumed bad, but these polls are making me second guess.

Edit: Just realized the Marist poll is the NBC one you were talking about.
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_FL-Adults_Registered-Voters_NOS-and-Tables_2020090712220.pdf

Surprising, Trump v. Biden tie in Florida according to a recent NBC/Marist poll - https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1239510

Shocking thing, Biden is struggling with latinos in Florida. I guess a lot of these folks are from Cuba and see first hand what socialism is from Castro's reign.

+1 to that.

I think I've really flip flopped a lot during this cycle. But I do think that we're going to end up with a VERY slight win from either side. As of right now I'm leaning on Trump being the person who is going to edge out Biden by a FEW electoral votes. When I mean a few I truly mean like 2-8 electoral votes to end all of this out.

The national polls are going to show Trump down by like 8 or so. Which may end up what the popular vote is at the end of this. But I think Trump will win by like 50k votes in those same swing states. Here's a good pic from 538 showing what polls are showing (and leaning towards in the future):

Donald Trump even as the president doesn't have the right to cancel or nullify the results of an election, in any case he loses. The most he can do is to take the matter to court, if he feels there were election manipulations and stuffs like that which led to his defeat in the polls. What you just said above is more common in countries with military unrest and dictators as presidents (mostly third world countries). The U.S. is not any of that.

It's definitely possible that what you're describing is what happens.
But if it's even a somewhat close election and Biden is declared the winner, it's entirely possible Trump just says 'no, he cheated, I won'. or 'we need a do over, here's an executive order now you have to do it' or whatever.

And then what.

Trump still has a couple months with all the powers of the president.  The entire Military reports to him, he's already demonstrated how easy it is to pretend like congress doesn't exist and manipulate the media, there are millions of Americans that actually believe the things he says - no matter how irrational or obviously untrue they are - and millions more that think it's funny when people get pissed that he lies so much.  That's a shitload of power.

As soon as we don't know who the president is, (half the country considers Biden President, the other half thinks it's Trump), we're no longer a first world country or the United States.

Isn't that how it should be, Biden's supporters, the BLM and those who think Trump has had a bad four years as POTUS wouldn't celebrate if Trump wins, there could be maybe few riots here and there from members of the BLM, but that will be all, nothing significant, the U.S. is a first world nation and I think if there's any case of post election violence, it will be extinguished asap.
When politicians go to court after losing an election, it usually doesn't change the result at the end of the court hearing, sometimes I wonder why they still make that move of going to court. In some third world countries, post election cases can last over four years (adjournment upon adjournment) by then the winners tenure is already up, lol, it's a waste of time imo.

You are right if Trump wins many activists and grass root organisations will not take it well but let us not forget Trump has his own supporter base including evangelicals and the right-wing so this Presidential election will get messy.

Many of the postal votes will be counted after election day and both camps will definitely contest the result either through the media or maybe in the Courts but I cannot see how a civil war is on the political horizon in the USA. That perspective seems far-fetched.

I have no idea what that nice pic is supposed to imply, but suggest you spend time on campaigns that you might have a positive effect on, and be working with winners. If Trump doesn't do it for you, then some local or state contests? Just saying. Things have devolved quite a bit here from Sanders...

Sure, revolution is the product of a radical, violent small minority.

But Russia had had a long history of fascination with communism.

Joe Biden is very poor choice for Democrats. But on the other hand Donald Trump is a catastrophic choice for Republicans.  Luckily I dont need to decide. If would live in USA would probably chose not to vote.

Trump is claiming if he loses then that means the election is rigged, isn't that exactly what you're accusing "the left" of doing ? Even when he won in 2016 he still said there was fraud against him ! And of course, the "people" actually didn't give him power, the system did. The swamp.

That is quite usual in the left. In fact, that is how Lenin came to power.

I think Trump can win but his chances are probably slimmer than the 2016 election. iirc 538 gave him a 1/4 chance of taking the election and Trump's margin of victory was ~50k votes in a handful of swing states.

I'm not seeing any rationale for a civil war, except on the part of the Democrats and Left: "We want power! We want power and it doesn't matter the people won't give it to us!"

What worries me is that it looks like the U.S. is headed for a civil war. And I have a feeling that if Trump wins, the BLM movement is not going to take it well.

The Guardian: Michael Moore warns that Donald Trump is on course to repeat 2016 win. Film-maker says enthusiasm for president in swing states is ‘off the charts’ and urges everyone to commit to getting 100 people to vote.

Moore, one of few political observers to predict Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016, said that “enthusiasm for Trump is off the charts” in key areas compared with the Democratic party nominee, Joe Biden.

The documentary film-maker Michael Moore has warned that Donald Trump appears to have such momentum in some battleground states that liberals risk a repeat of 2016 when many wrote off Trump only to see him grab the White House. “Sorry to have to provide the reality check again,” he said. “Are you ready for a Trump victory? Are you mentally prepared to be outsmarted by Trump again? Do you find comfort in your certainty that there is no way Trump can win? Are you content with the trust you’ve placed in the DNC [Democratic National Committee] to pull this off?” Moore posted on Facebook late on Friday.

Michael Moore warns that Donald Trump is on course to repeat 2016 win: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/29/michael-moore-donald-trump-repeat-2016-warning

So will Trump do it and get in to the Whitehouse by again losing the popular vote but winning the electoral college?