Topic: USB ASIC Miners will never ROI at 1 BTC/device (Read 13042 times)

By my calculations ~200 TH/s got us to 26M difficulty. My projections put the difficulty at between 500M - 700M in 52 weeks time. That would require between 3900TH/s and 5400TH/s to achieve that difficulty. That is within your "planned ASICs" window.

The current margins on mining devices cannot be supported over the longer term. Second generation ASICs which are far cheaper and more efficient are coming online soon. Right now, there is no company that can fulfill demand. Everyone is back-ordered and margins are fat because of this. The next generation of mining equipment companies should be able to build and ship product far better than BFL or Avalon could.

Sure.  Put it on your calendar if you want.  For my customer (I'm just operating for a fee) to lose that much, we would need to see the network at roughly 128 Petahashes/second within one year of the date these started mining (July 3rd).  That's a lot of hashpower, considering the entire bitcoin network, plus all the planned (preorder plus not yet sold) ASICs comes to around 3-5 petahashes at the moment.  How many more suckers do you think there are if the devices are already unprofitable?

I predict your first year of mining will bring you 0.45 BTC for each stick you have.
Lets necro this thread in a year and run a regression against the actual difficulty rises. 

Math is only as good as the assumptions it is based on.

ASICMiner USBs will continue to outproduce their electrical costs until the network hits about 95 petahashes.  Even if all the rumored hardware is true, we'll be lucky to see 20 petahashes within a year.  Who is going to pay for 5-10X more hardware than is already planned?  Are there that many "math-illiterates"?  That said, the window is indeed narrowing.

They are still living with the GPU mindset when you could recoup some of your costs by selling your equipment if mining didn't pan out. No such easy way out for the math-illiterates this time around.

I must be the luckiest person in the world... I just ordered 50 more and they are all pushing pretty close to 400 MH/s.

Edit: updating to cgminer 3.3 lowers my  hashrate to 334ish... strange

If you are getting 400, then you are just lucky because the vast majority of us are getting almost exactly 334.

On the just buy BTC theory, you may be correct, but we want to mine! Probably best to do a combination.

On the price drop theory, it seems like people are not remembering Cypress. More and more rumors of Cypress happening here. That will drive the price up. Also, serious rumors of fiat not being fiat anymore because the IMF is moving to a commodity backed system to readjust the values of all currencies. This will include precious metals and everything else like oil, etc. not just gold and silver. If that happens, then we may be in much better USD shape long-term and BTC rise will be much slower. Digital currencies still have the advantages of near instant payment without a bank and middlemen to take a cut.

Shipping is free.  I'm still not buying at 1BTC, but it is profitable and I will gladly continue to operate for a fee as many as my friend wants to buy.

Personally, I am waiting for a better proposal once AM gets some competition.  At the moment, they are the only ones shipping in reasonable times (2-4 days from China to US vs. a 3 month estimated queue at BFL and taking a risk on Avalon's "we will deliver when your rig starts to fill with dust"... oh or KNC's 28nm dream machines).  I'm waiting a few more months to see how it all plays out.


1. Plug it in
2. Start mining

They are likely advertising a hashrate that is based on average imperfection rate and a fair margin of error.  All ASIC production has areas where the chip doesn't work properly, so you might only get 90% of the cores in the chip that actually function properly.  Either they added too much buffer to their estimate or I got really lucky with all 10 of my miners.

personal prediction.
I think bitcoin might hit anywhere between 30-50 by end of this year.
I do think we're experiencing another 2011, with a little twist.

I hope the price tumbles to $30 per BTC and the margin of profit falls to almost nothing.  That way I can continue mining with my 5 ASIC sticks that only cost $1 a month to run and get more BTC, while the companies who invested a bajillion dollars into it make barely anything and have to shut their power hungry massive ASIC warehouses down.

In fact, I'd be surprised if it didn't, given the way things went after the first BTC bubble...

^This
And I am continually amazed at how many people do not realize this.
If only I had a satoshi for every newly minted Bitcoin enthusiast who justified purchasing mining hardware by saying the price of Bitcoins was going to rise.

I can't tell if that statement is for buying a USB miner or against.
But here's the facts for those that don't know.

The value of BTC is irrelevant to the ROI of hardware. If hardware does not return the BTC it costs to purchase. You are better off just buying BTC from the exchange and holding it.

The real question is how the heck are you getting a hashspeed of 400 instead of 334? Do tell...

Yeah because the price of BTC is going to stay the same forever.

K your 0.2btc return on 18 months plan is too little for my tastes. And a bit too risky considering
Thats based on 10% 11day schedule. How much is shipping on those?

At 2BTC a piece I agree.

Also, I am the pool fee, so even on my own hardware I don't have to worry about that.

Dude, I've been mining since December 2010.  I know how to calculate expenses.  If you want to discuss potential difficulty, sure, that is guesswork.  But I know expenses.

it matters because 400m/hash @ 2.5watts @ 2.x BTC per means you can't realistically collect 2.x btc from that usb @ 10% every 11days you'll get back 1.23btc (nov 2014) + 0.0001 every 11days there after. with diminishing returns, you'll never hit 2.x BTC. not counting -2% fee. so you'll always run it at a perpetual loss because you can't recoup the initial investment cost, no matter how little electricity it consumes, you are always behind.

@ 1BTC cost, same formula, you'll make 1btc back @ dec 13'2013. and 0.2BTC to Nov' 2014.
so you profit 0.2BTC in a year. -2% pool fee and 2 dollars @ electricity. assuming BTC remains at 100usd. you made 18dollars in a 18months. this giving you the benefit of doubt by not calculating pool fee's and unforseen downtime.

assuming a conservative 10% every 11days.

I did not buy them.  I am operating them for a fee for a friend.  Based on the timing, I would say 2 which is unfortunate for him.  I wouldn't have bought at that price and I told him that.  However, this shouldn't be a competition to prove I made bad decisions.  This should be a discussion of facts.

also did you pay 1 or 2 btc for them. i suspect 2.x

Same argument has been said since any mining device ever existed.  People mine, end of story.

2.5 watts at $0.09/KWh

At the moment, electrical costs are roughly 1.5% of revenue.  So you are claiming (BTC Price)/(BTC Difficulty) will be 1/67th of it's current value within 6 months?  That's a pretty bold prediction

depends whats your cost of electricity and the use? 2.5watts or 3? and relative to the value of BTC? since you cannot pay your electric with btc.

...
then you are better off just BUYING BTC!
if your investment, in BTC, does not return the same value in BTC, you are better off just exchanging FOR BTC.

400 MH/s USB miners cost me $2 a year in electricity.  Are you sure they won't be worth mining on in 6 months?

They may not make their BTC back they may make a profit in USD...

Network hash rate increased ~ 600% in 4 months (from 25TH/s to 150TH/s) since ASICs started shipping...and the ramping up of ASIC production is just getting started...by many companies that haven't even begun shipping yet.  Expect a market flood.

I laugh at your 10% increase every month.  Do the math, and a little forecasting both optimistic and pessimistic, either way, the increase in ASIC hashing power will crush your returns faster than a Black Wednesday on the DOW.

Denial is a river in Egypt my friend.

I've been mining for 2 years now.  Made most of my BTC in the beginning when hashing power was within grasp of the common man.  I'd like to get into ASIC but I just can't justify the prices, especially if you have to pay in BTC.  I rather pay good old USD.

Just recently stop GPU mining.  I've reached my break even point on my GPU mining.  At current USD/BTC, it's just not worth it.  I'm willing to bet that a USB miner will no longer be worth mining in less than 6 months (1 BTC/device) from now and you will not recoup your 1 BTC you spent to get it.  I'll re-visit this post in 6 months and post an update.

Bingo.

I bought a few at 2BTC. Resold a couple, and still run a couple on a Raspberry Pi. It's fun, and I'm doing a little bit for network decentralization, etc...

I didn't buy my USB Miners for the ROI. I bought ASICMiner shares themselves for ROI...

Some people aren't in it for profit.

• Novelty factor.
• Some people may be willing to lose a little money to contribute to securing Bitcoin.
• Mined coins are more anonymous than purchased coins, thus possibly worth more to some people.

how is that out of context?
you said the math, I pointed out the flaw in your math.
your assumption of 10% change every 30days is grossly misleading.

hmm should i reply to a out of context knit picker.. nope

you don't really understand how the difficulty works do you?

$300 7xxx series would get you around 660hash. more power consumption, but currently. 36% more profitable then bitcoin.

usb miners are a at a more fair price @ 1btc. but still not worth it

lol @ people who bought it at 2btc.

edit: you assume only 10% increase for an entire 30days? buddy, the last 2 cycles were 2x% @ 11days and that's just the tip of the dick when avalon ships their chips and other production starts ramping up.

OP obviously a GPU miner and maybe butt hurt after he spent $300 on a 7000 series GPU outputting 300mhash, and now people are able to buy USB miners 3rd of the price to compete against those last few GPU miners that are still in the game.

my suggestion is dont spend $300 on a GPU. buy 3xUSB miners. atleast your hash rate per dollar will be higher, and electricity bill will be lower.

or rent hash power from an ASIC miner if you cant afford to buy one in full

heres some maths.

buy 10 units totalling 3,400 mhash. revenue 2.5BTC this month.
buy 11th unit next month to compensate a 10% rise in difficulty. and pocket 1.5BTC

rinse and repeat for a constant never ending 1.5BTC income per month.

t. Asicminer share holder

Buy the dongle for a Bitcoin and buy another Bitcoin for ~100 USD. Trust me, ROI will be glorious.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2580881

You were doing well until you said "because BTC is expected to increase in value, and BTC mined will be worth something down the road.  Can't say the same for USD."

Neither you nor I nor anyone can say one BTC will be worth more in less in 3 months time. We live in hope, but not in expectation.

If you're thinking about getting one of those USB ASIC miners that do about 330 MH/s for 1 BTC, then forget about it.

With all the ASICs coming online, and ASIC production scaling up, and new ASICs in the works, the network hash rate is about to SKYROCKET for the next seeable future.

Just look at the past 3 months of difficulty increases as an indicator on how much it's going to explode.  I expect with the next 6-12 months we are going see triple digit percent increases in difficulty over it's previous difficulty.

That means your little USB miner is going to earn SIGNIFICANTLY less every difficulty change.  So much so that these little devices will never return on investment (ROI.)

I ran a some numbers in Excel and these miners have a plateau on how much BTC they can earn/mine... and it's way less than they cost to obtained.

For example, at 1 BTC to obtain one, expected to get a max ROI of 0.8 BTC IF the average network hashrate increases by 15% per difficulty change (every two weeks or so) over the next 6-12 months.  That 15% is really conservative.  I'd expect your 1 BTC investment to recover less than half of that in mining.

And that's if you got the little miners within the week you paid for them.  Every week that goes by without a delivered miner reduces the max ROI, so obviously, pre-orders are a joke...

AT THE CURRENT PRICE OF ~ 1 BTC per device.

However, what I say goes out the window if you paid USD for it, but I would never pay BTC for them at this time.  There is no ROI on them, unless the prices significantly dropped to about 0.1 BTC, then maybe you could make a few times your initial investment before they become useless by earning too little.

Remember, this is not valid if you can pay USD for them because BTC is expected to increase in value, and BTC mined will be worth something down the road.  Can't say the same for USD.

Spending 1 BTC to get 0.8 BTC, maybe even less?  It's a no-brainer.  Don't do it, unless you want to look cool and hip to your friends, but don't expect a ROI if you're paying in BTC.

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