Topic: Volatility and Psychology (Read 1317 times)
You have to step back to appreciate a good picture, Bitcoin price is the same.
Whenever the price tumbles you will see a few despondent people on this forum talking about how they want to quit BTC. Often the response they get is almost one of encouragement. E.g. "Good more cheap coins for us" or "Let's get rid of the weak hands".
I don't think this is how we should always be responding. It's not good when people feel bad about how things are going. We need adopters, not disillusioned quitters.
http://themisescircle.org/blog/2014/02/12/im-hoarding-bitcoins-and-no-you-cant-have-any/ I don't think this is how we should always be responding. It's not good when people feel bad about how things are going. We need adopters, not disillusioned quitters.
We have to understand that if we buy and hold bitcoin we don't loose anything.
We loose if, at the moment of sell, value of bitcoin is lower than at the moment we bought bitcoin.
Experienced investors know this rule very well and they will never panic and make such mistake.
They will observe and sell just when they are sure in profit.
Others will panic and sell right away, without thinking.
We loose if, at the moment of sell, value of bitcoin is lower than at the moment we bought bitcoin.
Experienced investors know this rule very well and they will never panic and make such mistake.
They will observe and sell just when they are sure in profit.
Others will panic and sell right away, without thinking.
guys shouting "volatility" are dumb and naive.
how come no one shouts the same when the price of bread jumps up and down between $2.00 - $2.40 depending on which shop you visit or which day you go in, if they have offers or not..
bread having a 20% difference in price. same for milk, same for rental apartments.. you name it the fiat market is just as volatile.
how come no one shouts the same when the price of bread jumps up and down between $2.00 - $2.40 depending on which shop you visit or which day you go in, if they have offers or not..
bread having a 20% difference in price. same for milk, same for rental apartments.. you name it the fiat market is just as volatile.
It's funny because I remember an old pal holding onto a particularly volatile asset and so he's holding at Friday "no no no, price is too low at 5.32$", comes Sunday price is already at 5.00$ "No no, I'm riding this out to the death" and finally at Tuesday when the price is already at 4.30$ his nerves burst and he sells, precisely when the general public hits the same point, and by the next Thursday the price is back at 7.30$.
It was pretty hilarious and at the same time has thought me that you make money thinking in the opposite direction of the average Joe, not in the same direction.
It was pretty hilarious and at the same time has thought me that you make money thinking in the opposite direction of the average Joe, not in the same direction.
I think psychology plays a huge role in btc adoption, namely, basic notions people have to get over. One example is btc's divisibility. An example; I have gotten my brother interested in btc, and he wants to purchase some, but he tells me the price is too high; he only feels comfortable risking under 200$. I tell him no problem, buy 200 dollars worth, you will get approximately 0.45 btc. Then he's all like " but I want a WHOLE btc!" Some little OCD part of his brain won't be ok with holding less than one whole btc. It's stupid, but not surprising. People like round numbers. With this in mind, lower btc price could encourage more new adoption, but the crash in value needed for the lower price may just cancel out this sentiment.
When people start thinking in terms of satoshis, this will get solved.
At present, investors more than the users
The price dropped for the last 2 weeks is only less than 20%. Many of the speculators obviously aren't around during the Mtgox and China bubble days.
Those drops had understandable reasons and actually had quick rebounds. But this current drop is psychologically worse because people see that most of the news is good but the price is dropping for no good reason. Those early drops made BTC look strong because of the support. This drop makes the BTC community look weak.
I think the resent drops are pretty understandable. Imagine your country printing millions of new dollars every day, and if the total value of those dollars is only around 6-7 billion $, obviously prices are going to fluctuate back and forth. It's not like there are new investors coming in daily that are buying up 3-4k of newly minted bitcoins every day.
If you really want to think about the long run, remember that around 90% of the coins will be mined in some years, what will happen to the price then?
I think psychology plays a huge role in btc adoption, namely, basic notions people have to get over. One example is btc's divisibility. An example; I have gotten my brother interested in btc, and he wants to purchase some, but he tells me the price is too high; he only feels comfortable risking under 200$. I tell him no problem, buy 200 dollars worth, you will get approximately 0.45 btc. Then he's all like " but I want a WHOLE btc!" Some little OCD part of his brain won't be ok with holding less than one whole btc. It's stupid, but not surprising. People like round numbers. With this in mind, lower btc price could encourage more new adoption, but the crash in value needed for the lower price may just cancel out this sentiment.
Cm'on ! everyone knows the stakes. You in or go cry to your mama 
Volatility has decreased as bitcoin and the bitcoin markets mature. A small market like Bitcoin can be easily moved, either by dedicated individuals, or perhaps by the sudden acceptance by some major retailers.
I'm not worried at any rate.
I'm not worried at any rate.
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Those drops had understandable reasons and actually had quick rebounds. But this current drop is psychologically worse because people see that most of the news is good but the price is dropping for no good reason. Those early drops made BTC look strong because of the support. This drop makes the BTC community look weak.
If one feels the news is good and also feels the price is dropping for "no good reason", then one logically should be buying coins while the market is being illogical.
What one feels is not what matters here. What does it do to adoption? You and I may buy more coins but an illogical market is not something that we can tolerate because it is a problem in itself. It will lead to more problems in the future. It needs to be fixed.
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Those drops had understandable reasons and actually had quick rebounds. But this current drop is psychologically worse because people see that most of the news is good but the price is dropping for no good reason. Those early drops made BTC look strong because of the support. This drop makes the BTC community look weak.
If one feels the news is good and also feels the price is dropping for "no good reason", then one logically should be buying coins while the market is being illogical.
With all the high exposure brands accepting Bitcoin recently, I have a hard time seeing bitcoin as weak, but rather customers and merchants recognizing Bitcoin's strength
Newbies rage quit. Veterans HODL. Masters "cut your loose."
The price dropped for the last 2 weeks is only less than 20%. Many of the speculators obviously aren't around during the Mtgox and China bubble days.
Those drops had understandable reasons and actually had quick rebounds. But this current drop is psychologically worse because people see that most of the news is good but the price is dropping for no good reason. Those early drops made BTC look strong because of the support. This drop makes the BTC community look weak.
The price dropped for the last 2 weeks is only less than 20%. Many of the speculators obviously aren't around during the Mtgox and China bubble days.
They'll come around eventually once they see a few market cycles go by...
Whenever the price tumbles you will see a few despondent people on this forum talking about how they want to quit BTC. Often the response they get is almost one of encouragement. E.g. "Good more cheap coins for us" or "Let's get rid of the weak hands".
I don't think this is how we should always be responding. It's not good when people feel bad about how things are going. We need adopters, not disillusioned quitters.
I don't think this is how we should always be responding. It's not good when people feel bad about how things are going. We need adopters, not disillusioned quitters.
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