You should do research and you should work as hard as you can to figure out if anything is going on in the news about anything and if you are well researched and know at the right moment that means you might actually make a profit. Without any of that, just making assumptions and predictions means you are not going to make any profit at all. If you think you will do that and you have a "gut feeling" that tells you to do something, you are going to lose a lot of money.