Topic: Volume Explained... (Read 1938 times)

Neither of those are global festivals .....

Well they sure didn't hold back for thanksgiving/chanukah.

Low volume at Xmas means .... its Xmas

Thank you for the polite response Edward.  

I am a long-term bull and believe the price will eventually go much higher than $1,000.  In the short term, I am 100% fiat on my trading coins (which is only ~10% of my cold-storage coins), in the belief that the whales takes us down once more into the 500s.  If I'm wrong, I won't buy back more than a few %--I'll just consider the other 7-8% an early divestment.  

I recently learned that I am one-degree of separation away from a great whale manipulator.  I learned that indeed whales do pump and dump the price.  But very importantly, I learned that the whales have a vested interest in keeping the price above a certain floor in order not to shatter confidence.  

It's in the whales' best interest if they can ride the bitcoin wave to the top.  They know they can't cash out hundreds of thousands of coins and nor do they want to because they believe that bitcoin is the future of money.  To realize their wealth, the need to keep bitcoin growing and hold the coins as one would hold a massive gold reserve--they would simply never cash out on the open market.  

So, they want people to be able to buy in at a good price (maybe $500 - $700?) and they want to shake out weak hands.  But they don't want to drive the price so low that it shatters confidence.  For this reason, I can't see us dipping into to $200-$300s for anything more than a sudden and quick flash crash, and even that I think is very unlikely at this point.  

Merry Christmas!

Yes Peter, you are correct. I do not think bitcoin is a scam, just that it is  manipulated. But I guess it is manipulated for the benefit of making money so many can win also. You just have to play it smart during the pumps and dumps so you're not left holding the bag. You should also not be blind when the price rises to unsustainable levels.

I just wish bitcoin price would stabilize here and not go any lower (don't we all). Actually, because I halted buying bitcoins for other investments, I probably have lost thousands in potential profits.

I guess it is a good bet that bitcoin will eventually exceed $1000 in the next few years. Might as well continue my high risk investing at this point (with my high risk allocated investing funds of course). Somehow my intuition is telling me that the price is going to go higher soon, but again this is just my intuition and I have no reasons why it should go higher. I also do not think any big news will come out soon. I mean, how can bitcoin really be pumped better than the china pump, a country with a large population and plenty of money using it. This is what scares me to think that it will slowly dwindle down.

I'm thinking it may eventually go back to $1000 because many people will hold out until that point. 

So like you said, Edward, the lemmings learn about bitcoin from the media, get excited about its prospects, and decide to invest some dollars.  Coins become more dispersed and the public awareness of bitcoin grows.  It is this new larger user base that resulted from what you called a "pump" that supports the new price level (perhaps not at $1200, but maybe somewhere between $400 - $800).  

Months will pass and there will be yet another opportunity to get excited about bitcoin (maybe another Cyprus, maybe a US stock market crash).  Since more people now know about bitcoin, there's more mouths to promote it to their friends, family and colleagues.  And so, once again we will rally and then crash...and the user base will grow even larger.    

Yes, there are whales manipulating the price, yes lemmings are momentum chasers, yes there are "pumpers and dumpers," but none of that means that bitcoin is a "scam."  It's like you can almost see clearly, but miss the fact that the price *must* increase over the long term should the user base continue to grow.  

It comes down to one simple question: In two years time, do you think more or less people will be using bitcoin?

Wow, someone who sees the market manipulation and the manipulators (or now called whales).

I've always noticed the market seems to be really manipulated and controlled (even back in 2011 I was big on that), and it makes total sense as someone with enough money and coins can easily do that.

You always pointed out the sheep in people, which I called lemmings. 97% of the population are lemmings in nature and can't think for themselves and so is the same with bitcoins.

The manipulators had the perfect opportunity recently to pump up the price to $1200 with all the news that was coming out. I saw that and even thought that It was the prefect time to pump. With the china news, us government legislation about bitcoins, etc. Perfect time to pump the market and get people thinking the price is going to 10,000 or even 1 million and 97% of the people on this forum believed it.

I even called it blind faith in some of my posts and I could not understand how people could be so blind and faithful about the price. This is the lemming nature in 97% of the people on here.
I was always part of the 3% who think for themselves and saw the bitcoin price for what it was, unsustainable.

Anyway, kkaspar is a very smart person and if he saw this all for what it is, he may be part of the 3% of the population who can think independently.

What happens if there are new whales in these waters looking to load up with (cheap) Bitcoin. What if these new whales had yellow skin, narrow eyes, and spoke Mandarin and had close relations with important government officials of the People's Republic of China?

What would happen to the market then?

Perhaps if such 'new' whales existed, they would have the power to push around, what is still a tiny market, in such a way (such as encouraging explosively exponential growth before pulling the rug out from under it's feet) that the existing whales may feel forced to play their hands whether they liked it or not?

are we sure volume isn't decreasing because of the holidays?

people spending time with their friends and families and junk

i'm sure volume will blow up once everyone gets back into work after new years, and fresh faces decide to hop on cousin charlie's super investment that made him 30 years closer to retirement over the last year

What do you guys think about the volume at this new chinese exchange hodljubi or whatever. I think that's what's keeping the price up right now.

The attractiveness that whales depend on comes mostly through media. The increasing or decreasing of price comes from the quite simplistic pumping and dumping scheme. They are pumping until the boom will start to slow, and then they will begin dumping. The first critical point were the 1st and 5th december, with 1st being the "testing dump" to see if the dump would stimulate the market to go higher, and the 5th december dump was a real one where they started to take their money out of bitcoin. The smaller pumps and dumps are just a part of the bigger dump, because with the longer play they can sell with a better price then with one big flash crash dump.  BTC price will lower until there is a new framework built to support a new hype. A new geographical location, or new laws or usability options need to come out before the change of trend should be expected. When rises come out of think air, then they tend to fall into oblivion soon. Try to make your decisions based on things that really happen with bitcoin, not by how the market is rising or falling. And be careful, because with BTC unregulated market, there are a lot of fake news to make you believe in something that isn't real.
Keep in mind, that with BTC unregulated market, the whales can use every dirty trick in the book. Most of these tricks will get you real jailtime when playing them at the stock market, but with BTC market there aren't even any people to call them bad names for doing that.

Thanks Kaspar.

What benefits the whales more, Loweing the price so it's affordable and attractive to those who are not invested yet in btc and getting more ppl on-board or keeping it where it is and buying up all the btc they can before raising the price? ....I would say the first but if thats the case that would maybe indicate the whales are keeping it stable until some of the other big players that want to get in are given time to set up accounts and money verified before lowering the price so they can buy many for cheap. ....what would be the chance this is the scenario?

The bitcoin market volume is decreasing on the time of uncertainty because of the nature of the market and also the traders. People who are trading futures, are mostly people who make quick decisions based on "real reasons" about the value of stock. The bitcoin market is mostly manipulated by a relatively small group of people who have the power to make the price go up or down without any "real reason" and the market is sheepish enough that it will follow. That is why the bitcoin market will freeze on uncertainty because most are just waiting "what will the whales do", so they can go the same way.

Just looking for some clarity on this.

Volume:

Investopedia explains 'Volume Of Trade'

 Volume tells investors about the market's liquidity. Higher volume means higher liquidity and better order execution. When investors feel hesitant about the direction of the stock market, futures trading volume tends to increase. Volume also tends to be higher near the market's opening and closing times, and on Mondays and Fridays. It tends to be lower at lunchtime and before a holiday.

When investors feel hesitant about the direction of the stock market, futures trading volume tends to increase.
 - This is what I'm confused about... right now the overall feeling is unknown/hesitation about the direction but we are not showing increased volume, volume shows a decreased/low amount.

 - Investopedia states that the volume tends to increase, what does it mean for the market/trend when the volume is low in this unknown direction?

I'm trying to understand how for days we've had low/decreased volume yet the price has remained stable and/or increased slightly.