Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1140. (Read 26634313 times)
February 08, 2024, 04:01:19 AM
February 08, 2024, 03:01:16 AM
February 08, 2024, 02:14:05 AM
. February 08, 2024, 02:01:16 AM
February 08, 2024, 01:01:18 AM
February 08, 2024, 12:55:55 AM
Except maybe the MtGox sales but that would be corrected within a day or two
Don't be so quick to dismiss the effect that the mtgox coins could have on the market. Last time I looked the discussion was that about 130,000 BTC were going to hit the market once the coins are distributed. After April we're looking at 450 BTC per day being added to the system. That's like damn near dumping a year's worth (289 days) of BTC supply on the market overnight. While there are certainly funds and OTC buyers lining up to get their hands on a massive chunk of BTC without moving the market, there's no way to tell if those 130K are going to be absorbed or cause an absolute market crash until it happens. My hope is that people with deep pockets will see this as an entry point the way Tim Draper did back in 2012/2013 with the government auction of a massive amount of coins, but I wouldn't say it's certain.
[...]
Major difference compared to the Tim Draper case, buying the Silk Road bitcoins in 2014, is that the MtGox bitcoins already have owners.
February 08, 2024, 12:14:32 AM
Bitcoin ETF approval, halving coming, interest rates probably going down in 2024 are good but the fact is miners are selling, ETFs inflows are good but not great, companies are being prudent and lay off workers.
The effects of higher interests are increasing everyday since loans are coming due for renewal everyday.
I see a new test under 40K$ before halving.
Oh gawd.. The effects of higher interests are increasing everyday since loans are coming due for renewal everyday.
I see a new test under 40K$ before halving.
Good luck with that.
Sure it is possible, but hoping for down (or waiting and failing to buy) when we already had a correction down to $38,500 seems to be not very reasonable to expect.
Actually if we ever go under 40k again it would be far more likely to happen after the 1/2 ing.
I think we have a shot to finally do an early ATH say 70k in late March with a lot of sideways action Until a better ATH in the late fall. But we all know these guesses are for entertainment more than anything else.
I am having trouble with all of these various predictions too.. because surely once we get above $55k then that is no man's land between $55k and $82k.. so there still could be some resistance to actually get into $55k, but it is hard to say.
By the time the halvening comes the 200-week moving average will likely be right around $33k, so I am having trouble imagining that BTC spot prices is going to come that close to the 200-week moving average absent just a quick dip.
So, for sure, any BTC price theory that I have right now is jumbled and full of contradictions.. including that usually we do not test the previous ATH until around half a year after the halvening, but for a lot of reasons these are not normal times. ... so even if we might say that we get stuck in the $80k to $100k range, but that makes no sense either because the BTC price does not tend to get stuck at the top.. we will go to tops and then come back down a bit, so it could be the case that BTC prices go to almost $100k and then get stuck in the upper $70ks to lower $80ks for some time... and no matter what I consider, it seems difficult to really put it into a reasonable framework, and maybe it makes more sense to go to $120k and then come back and get stuck between $80k to $100k... all within this calendar year.. and that seems overly wishful thinking but it does not make sense to me to get stuck in no man's land and it also does not make a lot of sense to stay in this $40k to $55k range, either.. especially given how many BTC the ETF providers are continuing to have to buy in order to cover demand.. so it kind of makes sense that the BTC price goes up to accommodate that level of demand on liquidity.
I am not going to be surprised by anything, yet like you I am trying to consider more likely and less likely scenarios, and I just have troubles considering what I consider to be less likely scenarios whihc is BTC prices getting stuck in noman's land - even if that might be what ends up happening.
Imho, it is simple: we are left-translating either because the prior cycle was somewhat diminutive (because of COVID, China, etc) OR we are left-translating because people with money decided that this time the game has to play out (at least initially) BEFORE the election.
It could also be that both factors are in place simultaneously PLUS the expectation of QT-->QE transition that is getting close.
Anyway, this is my rationalization, but bitcoin has proven to be unpredictable in a short term.
February 08, 2024, 12:01:15 AM
February 07, 2024, 11:44:18 PM
a bullish continuation above resistance with clear skys calling
dyor
4h
D
stronghands
February 07, 2024, 11:28:54 PM
Bitcoin ETF approval, halving coming, interest rates probably going down in 2024 are good but the fact is miners are selling, ETFs inflows are good but not great, companies are being prudent and lay off workers.
The effects of higher interests are increasing everyday since loans are coming due for renewal everyday.
I see a new test under 40K$ before halving.
Oh gawd.. The effects of higher interests are increasing everyday since loans are coming due for renewal everyday.
I see a new test under 40K$ before halving.
Good luck with that.
Sure it is possible, but hoping for down (or waiting and failing to buy) when we already had a correction down to $38,500 seems to be not very reasonable to expect.
Actually if we ever go under 40k again it would be far more likely to happen after the 1/2 ing.
I think we have a shot to finally do an early ATH say 70k in late March with a lot of sideways action Until a better ATH in the late fall. But we all know these guesses are for entertainment more than anything else.
I am having trouble with all of these various predictions too.. because surely once we get above $55k then that is no man's land between $55k and $82k.. so there still could be some resistance to actually get into $55k, but it is hard to say.
By the time the halvening comes the 200-week moving average will likely be right around $33k, so I am having trouble imagining that BTC spot prices is going to come that close to the 200-week moving average absent just a quick dip.
So, for sure, any BTC price theory that I have right now is jumbled and full of contradictions.. including that usually we do not test the previous ATH until around half a year after the halvening, but for a lot of reasons these are not normal times. ... so even if we might say that we get stuck in the $80k to $100k range, but that makes no sense either because the BTC price does not tend to get stuck at the top.. we will go to tops and then come back down a bit, so it could be the case that BTC prices go to almost $100k and then get stuck in the upper $70ks to lower $80ks for some time... and no matter what I consider, it seems difficult to really put it into a reasonable framework, and maybe it makes more sense to go to $120k and then come back and get stuck between $80k to $100k... all within this calendar year.. and that seems overly wishful thinking but it does not make sense to me to get stuck in no man's land and it also does not make a lot of sense to stay in this $40k to $55k range, either.. especially given how many BTC the ETF providers are continuing to have to buy in order to cover demand.. so it kind of makes sense that the BTC price goes up to accommodate that level of demand on liquidity.
I am not going to be surprised by anything, yet like you I am trying to consider more likely and less likely scenarios, and I just have troubles considering what I consider to be less likely scenarios whihc is BTC prices getting stuck in noman's land - even if that might be what ends up happening.
February 07, 2024, 11:01:15 PM
February 07, 2024, 10:59:57 PM
Wow bitcoin network can be communicated over radio signals and mesh... give some btc to voyager 1!!!
Ya, there’s been some cool projects working on this over the years. I’ve never tried it myself but I do find it interesting. You can also buy a satellite dish and communicate with the Bitcoin network that way. There are kits you can buy if you wanted to check it out. I’ll stick to the internet myself but by the time you need this stuff you wouldn’t be able to get it.
Also there is an African bitcoin exchange i discovered it base on this research, Machankura which allow clients to buy and send bitcoin using their phone (any kind of phone) by dialing a ussd code which is currently available to 8 countries in Africa including my country Nigeria.
Clients can send and receive bitcoin to one another with their phone from other Machankura users or to their Machankura LN address and while users can also set username in order not to publicly share phone number to receive bitcoin
Quote
Redeem Bitcoin
You can redeem Azteco Vouchers directly into your Machankura wallet
Users without internet connected devices can redeem Bitcoin from Azteco even when they are not in a position to visit the azte.co website. Users just need to dial the USSD and append the Azteco Voucher “reference code” found at the bottom of the voucher.
This is the process of getting bitcoin in the exchange. You can redeem Azteco Vouchers directly into your Machankura wallet
Users without internet connected devices can redeem Bitcoin from Azteco even when they are not in a position to visit the azte.co website. Users just need to dial the USSD and append the Azteco Voucher “reference code” found at the bottom of the voucher.
interview of the exchange founder https://youtu.be/TMsifcH90WY?si=cxC4rpm460x3Wexu
February 07, 2024, 10:03:00 PM
BUDDY I will be sleeping soon lets do some lifting over night we could use 50k to fall by the wayside.
February 07, 2024, 10:01:25 PM
February 07, 2024, 09:05:32 PM
Bitcoin ETF approval, halving coming, interest rates probably going down in 2024 are good but the fact is miners are selling, ETFs inflows are good but not great, companies are being prudent and lay off workers.
The effects of higher interests are increasing everyday since loans are coming due for renewal everyday.
I see a new test under 40K$ before halving.
The effects of higher interests are increasing everyday since loans are coming due for renewal everyday.
I see a new test under 40K$ before halving.
Oh gawd..
Good luck with that.
Sure it is possible, but hoping for down (or waiting and failing to buy) when we already had a correction down to $38,500 seems to be not very reasonable to expect.
Actually if we ever go under 40k again it would be far more likely to happen after the 1/2 ing.
I think we have a shot to finally do an early ATH say 70k in late March with a lot of sideways action Until a better ATH in the late fall. But we all know these guesses are for entertainment more than anything else.
February 07, 2024, 09:03:26 PM
February 07, 2024, 09:01:33 PM
Bitcoin ETF approval, halving coming, interest rates probably going down in 2024 are good but the fact is miners are selling, ETFs inflows are good but not great, companies are being prudent and lay off workers.
The effects of higher interests are increasing everyday since loans are coming due for renewal everyday.
I see a new test under 40K$ before halving.
The effects of higher interests are increasing everyday since loans are coming due for renewal everyday.
I see a new test under 40K$ before halving.
Oh gawd..
Good luck with that.
Sure it is possible, but hoping for down (or waiting and failing to buy) when we already had a correction down to $38,500 seems to be not very reasonable to expect.
February 07, 2024, 08:01:18 PM
February 07, 2024, 07:01:24 PM
February 07, 2024, 06:10:53 PM
Except maybe the MtGox sales but that would be corrected within a day or two
Don't be so quick to dismiss the effect that the mtgox coins could have on the market. Last time I looked the discussion was that about 130,000 BTC were going to hit the market once the coins are distributed. After April we're looking at 450 BTC per day being added to the system. That's like damn near dumping a year's worth (289 days) of BTC supply on the market overnight.
130K btc is huge, that's like almost $6Billion
But according to what I read the stipulated deadline is October and not all funds would be paid this year.
It's definitely more than $130 million. I had thought the number was closer to 200K BTC, but the number being kicked around in chats outside this forum is 130,000 BTC, so that's what I mentioned. You're right that only the early payout recipients will be paid soon, but I believe that makes up a large amount of the BTC being paid out. It's a massive amount of BTC and I would be shocked if it didn't cause a noticeable decline on the market, but who knows... Maybe enough people have gone short or are awaiting on the sidelines to balance it out, but like I said, I'd be shocked. That's a huge number.
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