Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 12173. (Read 26608637 times)

https://twitter.com/BreakingNLive/status/1073263748809400321
WATCH: Brinks money truck spills loads of money on a freeway in New Jersey. People stopped in the middle of the road to grab what they could:

To be fair, it is wrong. Crypto as a whole is not trading against fundamentals.

In the case of Bitcoin that's understandable, but when it comes to credit platforms, exchanges and stuff like that you can estimate the fundamental value through time and then realize that it's vastly over- and undervalued most of the time (think stuff like BNB). That's called market inefficiency and decreasing with maturity of the market.
Right now it's fairly easy (albeit cumbersome due to high amount of shitcoin projects) to identify future winners and losers and the profit margins are absurd. As crypto matures finding these ROIs will become increasingly difficult though, and not just due to the increasing market cap and lower implied upside potential, but due to an increasing amount of value investors skimming the markets.

It is risky short, since they do not have many trips to the bottom.
They are close to a short squeeze.

Ultimately you have to decide for yourself.

It seems a bit of a deviation from good practice to sell on the way down, although I am not opposed to such in Ethereum because I have almost no good thoughts about ethereum beyond that it is a platform for scams, a distraction from bitcoin and even a misleading attempt to pose as sound money (when it is none of that).  BTC's value comes from it's soundness in money, so best case would be to continue to buy on the way down or at least just keep dollar cost averaging, otherwise just HODL and save money for dips (if they come), and third preference would be to sell a tiny bit of BTC (just for comfort and insurance to be able to use that money to buy back, if such further dip happens and be willing to lock into that decision with a down buy back plan that makes you comfortable and not to use that money for buying back in other circumstances unless a considerable change in the market happens, which could take several months or even a year to play out).

Still buying. Have all the rest of my ammo on buy orders between EUR 2940 and 2800. It's going to the moon from the 200wk moving avg. ...
I know. Just blowing my mouth off.
But...
Sooner or later others will be thinking the same though and then it WILL start going back up again and we wont see this low for years.

Yes. I do think it will go close to 0 some day.... In the mid 2030s

https://twitter.com/Khil0ne/status/1072224804521107456

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-12-13/where-does-bitcoin-go-from-here


Bloomberg -

Wow, you manage to even make talking about bottoms a pain in the ass.

I think you are actively trying to encourage 'bash on JJG thursdays'  

I have a bit of trouble with the concept of "choosing" a bottom, rather than "finding" a bottom or "predicting" a bottom.

I understand that the meme works better with "choosing," even though there's something that seems missing,... not quite right about the analogy.

Hairy tends to back up his seemingly bearish calls pretty well, so difficult to argue with this kind of call, even though it seems a bit more pessimistic than what would be preferred.

Certainly, I am not pushing for any kind of narrative, except that the calls (especially about the future, and especially if extreme) are backed up by logic and facts.

In 2015, 2016 and 2017, my calls became a lot more conservative than market performance, so the actual market performance caused my expectations to be exceeded... which is a really great feeling (especially when you are prepared for such because you did not sell a significant portion of your BTC at lower levels).

Even though some people might characterize me as a bit too blind on the bull side of BTC matters, I understand the power of downward momentum and the difficulties and irrationalities to get out of such momentum takes a whole hell of a lot of time and overwhelming fundamentals in which bears are no longer able to push prices down, before they are ready and able to go up.

By the way, the reality of our matter is that our assessment of the BTC market should have become much more bearish after breaking below $6k without any quick spring back.. and we cannot fight the matter that it is likely to take an overwhelming amount of buying to get us back above $6k when so much confidence was lost from that breach and not quick bounce back.  So even though $6k represented about a 70% correction and a great BTC buying opportunity and $3,350 represents about a 83% and even a greater BTC buying opportunity, a lot of people have become too scared to buy and more wiling to sell, even at these prices and even when they should either be buying BTC or just HODLing and waiting to buy more at a lower price, if BTC were to go lower - which is far from certain, but has decent chances based on current actual BTC price dynamics rather than preferred BTC price dynamics.

I am not sure what the article says, but I can name 2 reasons:

- mathematics: in a short position you can only maximally make 100% of the money you put in (if you don't use leverage).   If you short $100 worth of something, the best you can hope for is it goes to zero and you make $100.  For longs, profit is potentially infinite.  Ask somebody who put in $100 in bitcoin when it was worth $1/BTC how much money they made, it is slightly more than $100.

- inflation: In a world where fiat is the currency, and central banks have a mandate to produce 2% inflation, assets that break even on purchasing power go up in price 2% a year.  That means that shorters lose 2% a year as a baseline.  (shorting something denominated in bitcoin might be less unfavorable for this reason).


EDIT:
- a third reason: risk: a short position is always a margin position with risk of liquidation.  Longs can just keep their position for years without ever having to worry about being wiped out due to market volatility.

+1 WOsMerit

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-13/unabashed-bitcoin-bull-thomas-lee-says-the-market-is-wrong

That's a great idea. Next time I fail on a prediction I will say the market is wrong, not me.

ok ok your right, i want someone to read it and explain me in a few sentences.

someone of the homeboys down here in belgium

(and offcourse i want to know why odds are against shorts )

BTW The HAT was better

The last year we saw an insane bull run before the end of the year and then a dramatic crash. Usually among holidays the price moves... since it has already lowered enough I would expect an uptrend unless this is just a transition year and no change of trends until first half of 2019

The more I look at graphs the more I think the bottom could be relatively close... 1 month of dumps without stopping and BTC futures starting somewhere before the half of 2019.

The next 2 months will be critical.

If price will stagnate further I will buy a bit at this price and then looking for the next dump, if that one will be the case.

Pump ?


Or Dump?

Which one has the least resistance/support?

The trick is to decide on targets before the bull run happens, then sell no more and no less at every given price level. Cost average around your chosen price targets too if you want to get fancy.

-1 WOsMerit

Bob...you have obviously been slacking on your training regimen. Must Rick be notified?



 





+10 WOsMerit's

mmmmm those moments