Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 15961. (Read 26583560 times)

https://medium.com/@jimmysong/segwit2x-game-theory-scenarios-part-1-7f863904a72
Jimmy gives a balanced-ish view

My tl;dr - scammers Mike Belshe, Brian Armstrong and Barry Silbert are gonna need a bigger float.

There is no way that this round of attacks has enough dollars or secret, reserved hashpower behind it.

Are they actually getting away with it? It's illegal aint it?

This cant be real.

Seriously, the level of stupidity is so high I cant barely believe it.

Similar to me Julian, also holding  Dash and Byteball both very interesting projects (and some bitcoin cash). I haven't cashed all by bitcoin segwit but a significant chunk, only because I have other uses for it. Bitcoin segwit can go up down or sideways from here, I'm happy with my decision.  

Besides bitcoin segwit is beginning to veer away from the cash concept towards being settlement layer for offchain transacting, not my favourite direction. I remain invested because it has retained the bitcoin brand and lots of support with that.

It damages bitcoin reputation.

I left it on the exchange as I will be buying back (either cheaper or more expensive).

If it works like MMM it blows up when the ar8ehole running it decides to shut it down and keep the money, leaving the participants with tokens that are valueless. It will then reopen in another country and suck in a new batch of “customers”

And when is this thing supposed to blow up ?

Not really inevitably. I would give low chances for that extreme outcome.


We'll see. Up to now no one put their money where their mouth is.


yes, and this is why I always disagreed with people happy to see big money enter in the scene.


15% would be a small correction. The question is what happens later. But atm I'm quite confident in bitcoin resilience. And similar previous attacks failed utterly.


I'm always been in favor of invalidating empty blocks. And now there are more reasons to do it.


They keep that trash alive just by a korean exchange which must be JihadWu's playground. BCH is a zombie coin whose expiry date is near.


The point is what is their objective. Since they cannot seriously believe that their alt would keep the bitcoin value they must be in just for the destruction, sponsored by TPTB behind the scene.
See: The cost of supporting the B2X fork: how to lose $100m in ten days https://medium.com/@danrobinson/the-cost-of-supporting-the-b2x-fork-how-to-lose-100m-in-ten-days-6797f7ef52da


+1. But do not count on being able to buy back your btc cheaper. I would dump only what I can afford to forget about.

If the miner's software has been build with the same expertise that has been demonstrated on github/btc1, it's gonna be a bumpy ride, to say the least.

You send them bitcoins, they give you "Bitconnect coins" which you can then "loan out" and get "interest".

Basically, you send your bitcoins and get fake coins in interest payments.

Well, do the miners even have segwit2x software that they can actually run?  rather than merely signaling intention?   


Maybe I am not technically savvy enough, yet I am thinking that they have to run the different (segwit2x) software in order to mine on the segwit2x chain, correct?  Has such software been tested and deployed and do they know it will work?  Or do they merely run the same software and change some kind of setting in order to switch which fork they are mining?

Too right!

I understand it's kind of a Ponzi scheme, right ?

Just now the gf sold some bitcoins to a guy via localbitcoins in Bangkok...his reason for buying....he needs it for Bitconnect.

Nice post. But signaling has already dropped below 80% and as we know signaling means nothing anyway.  I think more plausible than your listed possibilities is the chance that miners simply balk at mining the new fork when they see the price is UNDERPERFORMING futures.

Mike Belshie isn't going to be able to orchestrate a worldwide exchange dump. And we have to remember that although miners often act like a cartel, the more confusing options that are at play, the less likely they are to act as one entity. But the bottom line is, the economics of it doesn't make sense. They have Bitcoin Cash now for larger blocks, so they don't really have a reason to lose millions of dollars a day mining Segwit2x.

I think we will start to see more and more "excuses" and "rationalizations" over the next 10 days before the fork. By the time the 16th arrives, there might not even be much of a fork left at all.

This is the first major attack on Bitcoin. In a few days/weeks we will know the outcome. If the legacy chain wins, it will come out stronger than ever. If we end up in a mess, the entire crypto space will be negatively affected. Common people and investors will be scared away, even more than they already are by Bitcoin's less-than-friendly methods. Bitcoin hasn't even matured yet, and it's being attacked by powerful entities filled with ego and greed. It's sad. We have something that's revolutionized the monetary system. This is only the beginning, and we want to kill it before it even matures. I guess it's human nature...

It's all fun and exciting, with Choo-Choos and memes, but the hard reality deeply saddens me. I do hope that some stability will be achieved soon, and that Bitcoin will survive the attack, unscathed and stronger than ever.

Wow!   You describe a lot of attack vectors against the legacy chain and perhaps counter-measures, too, and even suggesting some worse case scenarios in which economic players are going to be engaged in tactics to attempt to kill the golden goose (the legacy chain) in order to get their way on some kind of uncertain future with some proposed uncertainties and very small teams of disorganized renegades (war mongers as you suggest)?

Sure some of the things that you outline about WAR could happen and some of the ramping up of WAR tactics could happen too, but I am going to suggest that there is some logical lackings in this proposed all out WAR scenario, when there is a good thing going with the legacy chain that involves consensus evolution that has taken place over about 9 years...

The thinking that you are suggesting assumes a kind of "LET's fucking blow it up" mentality, and just seems a bit irrational to be coming from profit seeking entities, as you seem to be suggesting all is fair in love and war and for some reason these guys are going to be hell bent on destroying systems around which they have been building and making profits and having a lot of investment, too...?

Currently, I have a bit over 80% of my value of bitcoin that is in cold storage.  I am thinking that I will keep my remaining 20% on four exchanges.  I also have a large portion of my BTC allocated fiat on the same four exchanges....  

I am also thinking that in the event that exchanges do not force me to close my outstanding buy and sell orders, I might either cancel some of them or set them for more conservative amounts and maybe spread them out a bit more.  

Probably in the very time around the fork and immediately following, it might not be good to trade BTC, at all?  but I am not sure... ?   It remains unclear how each exchange is going to treat trading and whether there will be some safeguards yet it could merely be profitable to trade BTC during this time, if there is a system in place that allows taking advantage of volatility (whether upwards or downwards) should be part of any BTC trading system and planned approach, no?

Perhaps we are running out of steam for the moment, (FWIW Tone Vays called top on 5/11.- though we may possibly see another ATH before the fork).

I see many people comparing this fork to the BCash & BTCGold forks, but this is a contentious "upgrade" designed to supplant the existing chain. Nothing we learnt about forks from the last two will have any relevance to this one.

There are a number of risks coming up,
1) Miners attack - inevitably leading to POW change. All significant attacks on the chain will result in a POW change. I don't think a POW change will destroy bitcoin, but it will surely damage the price. This may appear like something they won't do, but it may be a sacrifice someone is willing to make to control the future of Bitcoin. If the hash rate of the existing chain is low enough they could probably do it anonymously. Though of course we will all know who it is.

2) Mike Belshie's cabal of dumpers https://twitter.com/WhalePanda/status/926407742381789185
After the fork, 2X'ers will dump  their BTC stash and dramatically reduce the price, this will ensure some of the 'for profit' miners can make more on BCash. The B2X chain is probably a write-off at the beginning as all the NO2X'ers will be dumping their B2X coins. I think it is best if people  stagger their dumps, to ensure it keeps the price low over a longer period.

3) CME is a godsend tool for shorters, and has been engineered to come online just before the fork.(2 days before)  It is not good news at the moment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0BRyNvgBx8. The current price has a lot of people invested who haven't really been tested in one of the classic BTC dumps. CME will give people an easy opportunity to cause panic in these people.

4) The current split is 85:15 (BTC:B2X) - unlike previous non contentious forks,  this one is  'only one can survive'
 BTC may well immediately drop 15% after the fork. It shouldn't 'create value out of thin air' like the Cash fork.

5) This could simply be a side effect of the BCH stealing hash rate but, The next difficulty is going down https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty. You would expect the pro 2X miners to ensure it was higher so the BTC chain finds it more difficult to make blocks, but lowering the difficulty is more indicative that they want to attack the chain. - The easiest attack for them is just creating empty blocks, they could do that by mining as usual, or by mining a secret chain that wipes out many days of the chain once released.

6) The new difficulty algorithm in BCash becomes active a 2 days before the fork, again this has been engineered to ensure BCash can efficiently steal mining power from other chains.

7) The existing BTC chain could stall for a large amount of time, filled with high fee spam and very infrequently blocks. (though, just after the fork, it may proceed as usual to permit the 2X'ers to move coins to the exchanges for dumping).

The stars are all aligning for a significant event.
Clearly most of these probably won't materialise, but they are un-predicatble because, as in a war, they depend of the tactics employed by the opposition. It all depends on the mind of the enemy, something you can't really know for sure.

I don't think people should under estimate that this is a war for Bitcoin. The opposition (miners) have a number of nuclear options available to them, and if pushed towards defeat they may consider using them. They may even have mapped out the scenarios and decide to use them pre-emptively. Any dirty tricks will lead to a retaliation,

I'm bullish for long term BTC, and will only support the original Core Chain, but the times are very uncertain and locking in some profits now is probably a wise move, (TBH I've already completed a sell, as I don't want to get caught in a rush for the door).

Yup. Nothing new though, it reminds me to Herbalife and all those MLM stuff.

On other news:

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=%22buy%20gold%22,%22buy%20bitcoin%22,buy%20silver

#justsaying