Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 19267. (Read 26607118 times)

i think this is it!

>440 in a few hours!

I CAN FEEL IT!

voted

the only issue with core is that the lightning network is not yet finished. otherwise the segwit stuff is only a tiny increase... but apparently the change is needed for the possibility of the lightning network being implemented. AND EVEN THEN, a block increase will be needed. it does verily seem that the core developers are just trying to go against gavin/jeff garzik.

I guess we will ultimately see where core developers stand. Because despite all the additions 1mb blocks arent enough. If blocks start to get full and they (core developers) still deny max blocksize increases then they will create a fork, and youll have a bunch of more mature and/or less dependent on blockstreams ability to make profit who will jump over to classic and add all the goodies there.

Coin



Explanation

I was using 4 to the tenth power, but even if we use your numbers, what about year 12? Over sixty bucks?  and year 13- $122?

Miners are free to exclude any transaction they want and throw away they fees they would collect.  That's how a fee market should work.  They will have to judge the cost/benefits.  We are not in the best position to do that. Core is not in the best position to do that. The miners are.

Thanks for catching my math error. It does apply if fees quadruple every year with a start of 4 cents.

Now let's do the math for BTC doubling every year because of "free" transactions:  That's 400 X 2^10, right?
$409,600/BTC.  Block reward will be 3.125 BTC, so $1,280,000 PER BLOCK. (with no mining fees at all).

Why would this happen? The Core developers themselves said it: "Demand for cheap highly-replicated perpetual storage is boundless". (G. Maxwell, 12/7/2015)

You think people wouldn't invest in nodes to make that happen? You think people wouldn't build mines to make that happen? Build an entire infrastructure to make that happen? That's why we bought bitcoin in the first place, back before we even knew there were scaling limitations.  

Coin



Explanation

So those are the stealth mines supplying the stealth investors (the ones paying x10 spot for clean BTC -- to accumulate off-the-books, under-the-radar, without causing slippage)!
It all makes perfect sense now.

@AlexGR:
1. Google didn't start f8king its search pages with ads until it was securely THE search engine to use. Had it tried, you'd be Yahooing & Binging nao.
2. We don't need to support the miners we don't need gadzillahashes -- the fees will happen when they happen.

In a parallel universe where maths works differently, maybe we'd get to 10.000$. In this universe it would work like this:

Year 1: 0.03$
Year 2: 0.06$
Year 3: 0.12$
Year 4: 0.24$
Year 5: 0.48$
Year 6: 0.96$
Year 7: 1.92$
Year 8: 3.84$
Year 9: 7.68$
Year 10: 15.36$

For the time being we have something like

Year 1 to Year 7 = peanuts.

What you propose about consistently low fees can only have 2 outcomes:

1) Miners cutting every low fee tx by themselves and imposing a fee market, which can trigger "riots" and new fork attempts to stop the evil miners from not processing our txs.
2) Idiots pushing for >21mn coins and more inflation "to keep fees low so that more adoption can take place".

Most of them understandably keep a low profile, but Jonathan Toomim's mine is there. 

O.k.  Per theme of the thread… and popular demand......         here’s my go at a BTC price prediction based on our recent BTC price action.

I would suggest that currently, we largely are floating within about a $400 to $425 price channel, and how long will that last, I am not sure. Could be several hours or could last several weeks, but most likely a few days and through the weekend (until Monday or Tuesday is a fair approximation).

I do tend to think that we are getting some upward price pressures and generally people are no longer buying some of the imminent forking propaganda and the block size limit bullshit that has been in the press for the past 5 months and emphasized as a reason to push prices down in the past month and a half... and also people seem to be realizing generally that bitcoin core (and the general direction forward of bitcoin) has a pretty decent, conservative and reasonable plan(s). If you want me to cite some kind of source, here than let me know.

In the past several days or so, I kind of believed that we could have gotten enough upward price momentum to break out in the upper direction towards the upper $420s and maybe even into the $430s, but it is possible that we are not ready yet for that level of upward price movement, and the trade volume has not really picked up very much in the past few weeks (even with this recent price rise), but now after a little lingering in the lower $420s and then a bit of a shooting down to $414 last night, I am thinking that there is a pretty decent chance that we could possibly stay in this $400 to $425 price channel all weekend....

As is frequently repeated, never say never in bitcoinlandia, and surely within hours, I could be proven wrong and alerted again to another price alarm of BTC prices shooting upward and out of the upper $420s and beyond price range or even in the opposite direction.

Within any price channel (and possible consolidation period) we could break slightly beyond on the upside of the price channel or towards the downside of the price channel for short periods within that channel.

I am kind of thinking that maybe there is some needs for attempts at profit taking (that means down) at this time and to test the downward resolve of the BTC market, and in that regard, prices may break down first over the weekend, and then possibly get stuck back in a similar channel or a little bit lower price channel (around the $400 level) before breaking back upwards, later down the road?

If we do not break down over the weekend and manage to largely stay above $410 all weekend, then that outcome would probably be fairly bullish for bitcoin prices in the short-term and be a sign that chances are pretty decent that the next break out of this particular price channel is going to be upwards, rather than downwards.. and bring us, possibly, towards testing the upper $460s again (and who knows from there?  We would need a further assessment at that time, depending on the intensity in which such a price break out would occur).

Overall, at the moment, I am a bit more inclined towards upwards (53%) rather than downwards (47%) – even though I am thinking that there is a greater than average chance of a bit of short-lived downwards retracement first.

Maybe that is a bit of a lame and all over the place BTC price prediction, but since my BTC price alarms woke me up at $414 last night (and then prices bounced almost immediately back over $416), I thought that I should write a few thoughts about my revelations caused by that startling event. 

any contrary predictions?

Read an interview with some power co. exec somewhere that this wasn't going to be the case for long, will look it up (or you could, it's on the web).


Do you remember the names by any chance?

I was thinking of marketing a companion product: A kit, consisting of an extension adapter similar to this that you screw the mining bulb into, but here's the cool part: instructions on how to disassemble the mining light bulb, cut a couple of traces, and solder in a couple of jumpers, so that the miner stays on all the time, while you can shut off the light bulb with a string.

Chances of success are 100%, because combines immense "practicality" with DIY/hacker ethic.

Edit: Should I Kickstarter or Bitcoin Securities IPO?

Having more than 50% hashing power in one political jurisdiction creates a vulnerability the same way having more than 50% hashpower in one pool does. Douglas County, Washington has plenty of carbon neutral electricity for sale at less than 2 cents/kilowatthour.  Several very large mines are there already, but we need to triple the hashpower to eliminate the possibility of Chinese mine nationalization/51% attack. That attack is not just a remote possibility. The risk gets greater the higher the price gets as long as mining is concentrated.

Yes if you factor in the cost of connecting all your light bulbs to phone lines. Wouldn't the price of installing all the lines plus all the work re-plastering and redecorating be prohibitive? It's messy and expensive moving one telephone socket from one side of the room to the other. Wiring every light bulb to a telephone line would be a nightmare.

Coin



Explanation

Do we all have to sit in the dark then?   

But if electricity costs are lower in China, wouldn't it make sense to mine with more efficient chips there?

One and the same.  A complete fraud.  

About 2 of those names are worth anything. All the rest are fluff - bar Hilliard. He is just a fraud misrepresenting himself as "Bitmain" (He is not)

Yeah, mining lightbulbs are a colossally stupid idea, but Bitfury makes really efficient chips and it's their mines outside the U.S. AND China that could make Bitcoin truly censorship resistant.

Ok, but we'll expect strict discipline.



Edit:


That was uncalled for.