Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4883. (Read 26608621 times)

ftfy

I am 100% certain that a LOT of professional traders who are newly into Bitcoin made an error because of this particular fake out.  I mean... I suppose I can be wrong about where we are headed and this is a dead cat?  But I doubt it.

This is an over-classic spot on formation at the end of a parabolic run to all time highs.  I guarantee that a LOT of money traded out of this.

I remember seeing Microstrategy announcing new buys over and over during the 3-4 month correction.  And I can remember pros commenting on them sending good money after bad, and pointing out the levels at which they would be under water.

This is not a post saying "HA HA!  Look at the dumb 'professionals!'".  They are good at what they do.  And notice I said "the ones new to bitcoin".  Because the ones that UNDERSTAND bitcoin a bit more were... well, doing what Saylor did.



One more bit of thought...  A lot of really smart professional money got out in the 60 to 45 range. So part of this rally will be them getting back in while they are still at a discount.  It's sort of an implied short squeeze. And for some it is probably as REAL short squeeze.  But others just have money on the sidelines like Raja...  They are going to be buying in more as the price starts to continue to head up, because more of them will be hedging under their sale price that they were wrong.

And Voila.  They were.

Feel free to dig this quote up and post it to embarrass me in 6 months:

We are now entering the next phase of the bullsplosion.  And I think it is highly likely to be the uber-face-melter.

But it won't get quoted.  Because it will be correct. 

Cards face up.  All in.

Love you folks. 

(PS.  I think the real tell will be the volume over the next month or so...  If it stays low then all the above theories were wrong.  If we see it start to build from here???  CCMF)

You are not really saying anything too much different from me, except perhaps you are aiming at some kind of seemingly blind conviction that fails/refuses to attempt to account for individual particulars including psychology and finances.

In other words, we are not all starting from the same place in terms of our finances nor our psychology, especially in regards to an asset such as bitcoin..

yeah, we can start out with some ideas about "get the fuck off zero" and some of those basics, but then once we get past get the fuck off zero I doubt it is practical to assert that people should go all in.. that is a bunch of bullshit because normies are not going to do it.. and normies are all over the place in terms of their thinking about finances and their practices.. so there is some value in attempting to work with people from where they are at rather than hypothesizing them to already be in some kind of fantasy place that might have been reflective of where you were at when you got started, but even if you look at ur own lil selfie, and if you are honest with ur own lil selfie, you are likely going to appreciate that you were not likely very enlightened at all about bitcoin when you started, and you may well were not even enlightened about yourself and your then financial practices.

Bitcoin can provide a vehicle for any of us to learn more about ourselves and also to figure out what is going to be our investment goals.. and we might well need to stand before we walk, walk before we run, and run before we try aerodynamic moves.  Probably a vast majority of us made some mistakes along the way too, and some of those mistakes have related to ways in which to attempt to tailor our bitcoin investment to ourselves which is not only learning about bitcoin but also learning about ourselves, too.

Are you proclaiming yourself to the be exception?  the one who knew everything right from the start?  that seems a pretty damned rare beast to me, even though I have seen quite a few people proclaiming to have known stuff way before they could have even reasonably known.. the baby genius is also a fantasy rather than a real thing that exists.

Ps:
By the way, don't get me wrong.  A lot of normies are likely to screw themselves out of some potential profits because they end up being quite hesitant, whimpy and lacking in conviction and lacking in front-loading of their BTC investment, but it still does not take away from the fact that the vast majority of people are going to have to build their conviction.. Maybe even someone like Saylor had to spend a few months studying up on bitcoin before he went into BTC pretty damned aggressively from the start (but is he very typical of any kind of normie?  I doubt it).  But even if we attempt to analyze Saylor's initial getting into bitcoin a bit over a year ago, he became more aggressive with the passage of time in terms of just investing cash reserves at the start, but presumptively as he learned more he became more aggressive in terms of figuring out various ways to use debt (or potentially be able to draw from other kinds of seemingly creative debt.. that also is likely very available to the vast majority of normies).. but even Saylor's earliest aggressive use of cash reserves (wasn't it something like 70% from the start?) would be way the hell more aggressive than most normies just getting their foot in the door of a kind of investment like bitcoin and getting their investment level up to between 1% to 10% of their investment portfolio would be challenging to achieve for a lot of normies who are not willing to move so quickly, decisively and aggressively, even if it may have been for their own good to get their investment size up there faster rather than slower.

I see what did you do there?

Where did your signature go? Don’t listen to trolls bring it back

There only is one correct answer…..

JJG = wrong  

There is never a target not 1 btc not 0.21….

There is not a goal to reach, there is a manner of lifetime strategy to work out, people just need to realize that BTC is the main asset to HODL on for life and just a thing to work with at any time not something to reach and stop….

How "charitable" of you to be thinking about our future, in advance.   


Yeah.. sure.. we should give that diptwat some benefit of the doubt, no?

 


It would be really difficult to generalize, and sure your earlier assertion of 80/20 ignorance versus enlightened does tend to be a decent ballpark starting point even though we could presume some higher levels of conviction for bitcointalk members and perhaps even a bit more higher levels of conviction for WO regulars.. but sure we might still not be that far differentiated from the presumptive 80/20 Pareto distribution.

There are also a decent variation in the accumulation and HODLing styles amongst us, and surely there were some folks who frontloaded BIGGEDly when they first got involved in BTC, and others who did not, and surely some of the lack of frontloading might not even really be by choice, depending upon where a person might be in life in terms of cashflow and even whether s/he might have credit too.. college students might be a great example of someone lacking in cashflow.. and even if DCA might help, it might still leave those kind of categories of people way "under-invested" relative to their bullishness of the topic.

Explanation

The complaining guy seems to be right, especially if the boss is proposing 100% paid in bitcoin, unless there is a way to tailor the amount received in bitcoin versus dollars. 

I had never been one to regularly invest much more than 10% of my ongoing cashflow into anything - at least from my cashflow perspective.. even if there might be spurts from time to time that I would end up investing more, and sure there had been times that I was more aggressive on investing because my income so vastly exceeded my monthly expenses.

Of course, if I were to be in the process/midst of lump sum investing or transferring funds around from one investment to another (BTC or otherwise), then I might be willing to be more than 10% of the payroll cashflow.. but still makes me nervous to be playing around too much with my cashflow or to have my money coming to me in an investment form that I might not be able to invest that much money as it comes in - especially presuming that in 2013 and even today, it seems that every single debt or expense that I have is somehow denominated in dollars... even if there may well be other payment options.

We should not mix up payment options with denomination practicalities.

I suppose even if some of my debts/expenses were denominated in bitcoin, I would still be doing some of the overall calculations to figure out how much that I should allocate in bitcoin versus dollars at that particular time and as the money is coming in (presumptively), so surely nice to have some balance in these kinds of ongoing controlling of the allocation matters.. and options too.. even concerns if there are fees involved to convert back and forth might be a practical/substantive matter to weigh.


Of course, bitcoin has a kind of unique supply curve, but it still has market cycles.. at least so far...

You are right that there are some similarities and differences to the wood market, but there is some straining of comparisons if you attempt to describe too much about bitcoin when comparing it to wood.


$50k is so close that it is starting to feel almost inevitable... even though we can never really determine what is going to happen with bitcoin, especially in the short-term and especially in the future.. even if a kind of supra $50k feels damned close to a done deal.. and our current pumpening from just the past 15-20 minutes has brought us a mere $286 from touching upon $50k.. which surely would resolve the poll and put Infofront back to scrambling (not eggs, either).

So you're basically saying that since I can buy a VCR or Nintendo Entertainment System for $5 at a yard sale, life has gotten cheaper and inflation doesn't exist? Uhm, no.

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

Handy Calculator that draws from the same data that you were trying to cherry pick says inflation from 2001 to 2021 is 54.2% and in real world terms that still seems like an artificially suppressed statistic to make the Fed look better.

86.3% of all statistics are randomly pulled out of somebody's ass to prove a point. Trick is to figure out what point that ass is trying to prove.

Buy Bitcoin.

My posts always end up adjacent to idiot trolls. Not intentional, I can assure you.

(except for this one, maybe....)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8OHybVhQwc   *


edit....(*  "heaven" in a metaphorical sense, of course....)

I have a hard time appreciating how being a "crypto" analyst is relevant to this thread.  And gosh using such term as a marketing ploy causes me to consider that the person might not even know what bitcoin is.. is there a shitcoin angle here?

In other words, does the laser-eyed chick know any widdo ting-a-lie about bitcoin?  Now knowing about bitcoin may well be helpful and relevant to this thread.. including you, ImThour, using/perpetuating such nonsense term without explaining what you mean by it.. anything there?  anything?


What else is new?    An admitted nocoiner (who also begs for BTC) suggesting some other possible investments.   

One of the best pieces of advice is to get your ass off of zero first before you are proposing various ways that you might consider supplementing your BTC holdings into various other kinds of holdings.

I am not even against investing in various other assets or currencies (not talking about shitcoins), but get a hold of your bitcoin strategy first.. that's what we be talking about here, especially during the greatest wealth transfer in history, you better have some kind of bitcoin strategy... we been through the numerous ways that bitcoin is superior to gold.. and of course, the actual market seems to be recognizing those various ways too.. and if we look at bitcoin's market cap and bitcoin's market cap, sure bitcoin has less than 1/10 the market cap of gold - but so many of us have already considered that bitcoin is better than gold, likely in the 100x to 1000x (or perhaps more) better than gold category, even if it could take a few more cycles for BTC's market price to get closer to some semblance of its real value..

Now, if you get to a certain level of BTC, maybe even to some level of fuck you status, then sure, you can throw some money away into some shiny stone/coin/or whatever you want to call it.. that is likely nice to look at and even feels good in your hand.. Yet one of the problems remain that even gold collectibles are quite likely to be losing their value because of gold spot price having its lunch getting ongoingly eaten by our lillie fiend, aka king daddy.... so it may well be better to buy some of those rocks, even the collectible ones after getting your shit together with bitcoin first.. .. first get off zero, then establish some target accumulation levels, then perhaps get close to fuck you status or into fuck you status before spending your money on ongoing depreciating asset classes.... including some of the collectibles that are not as BIG of collectibles as the rarity, present utility and likely future utility of bitcoin.

Explanation

I would guess that many of us that are "from the early days" and are still here, are still holding significant portions, if not all, of their holdings from back when.  Some of us also wish we had acquired more   That's for sure...  And this makes the holding even easier.

Uh, sure...  


Not really fair to do as the calculations for inflation allow substitution of lower quality goods for better ones (you can't afford steak so you buy cheap hamburger instead). What's good for the goose is good for the gander. If you're going to use similar methods, you have to look at the price of a typical TV for the time.

Not that surprising. There were plenty of people on both sides of the debate and debate was happening until the purge. Not everyone would jump ship just because they didn't get their way.

Since there is no way to downvote or unlike your offensive post, I will simply ignore you.  I have been doubtful you offer much, and I believe that was a correct position.

Lets look at inflation. 20 years ago vs now.
Price of a new car, 20 years ago.  US labor statistics bureau.  Thats adjusted for inflation, etc. everything in 2001 dollars for clarity
6.25% total inflation over 20 years.  
Clothing
100$/94.24$
Deflation of 5.76%
Airplane tickets
Deflation of 6.40%
TV's are 96% lower.  keep in mind this is an equivalent purchase.  in 2001 you would not buy a 72 inch tv.

Everything related to technology and outsourcing is in a deflation state due to technological advancement, increased productivity and exploitation of 3rd world countries.

Now why do people think there is inflation ?  Because everything related to goods that are commodities/consumables has inflation
BACON = 80% HIGHER
BEER = 50% HIGHER
ELECTRICITY = 60% HIGHER
GAS = 97% HIGHER

So our society = everything durable/tech = much cheaper all the time = increased quality of life for cheaper = better world
everything consumable = much more expensive all the time

Solution ?  Just buy bitcoin.

I was actually talking about Bitcointalk.org, not this section/post. Also, you don't know how many of the people who are here since early days are still holding or not

Cheers! My 400th post. <3