It was a hypothesis. A theory has a lot of work put in. I just pulled a chart out of my ass and asked if the past data similiarity looked spooky.
Well that question was already answered. In essence, the data that you had shown did not look spooky nor similar (based on other underlying concepts in bitcoinlandia.. including the various currently credible BTC prediction models that should have allowed you to reasonably conclude that we not be in 2018 at this here time), but you argued about it anyhow...hahahaha
I'm not sure of the specific beairsh theory, but I don't see it as being laughable to be objective and consider "shit, maybe we are all wrong". I was 95% sure the bull-run would continue, which very much appears to be the case now fortunately. I'd still put a 1-2% chance of being wrong however, as nothing to is a guarantee in life. It'd be naive to consider the statistical or data science models, whether that be log growth or stock to flow, to be right 100% of the time. That's how you can get completely rekt long-term.
Call me not a "true believer" or otherwise, but I just stick with the probabilities rather than the prophecies, as they appear more reliable to me. Fortunately as I trade time rather than price these days, the probability of the 12th year of Bitcoin being different from the other 11 had a simplistic 8.3% chance to me (1/12). Add in something else like stock to flow and the macro bullish uptrend of the Weekly/Monthly chart, I could easily drop this % in half to <5%. But I still had my objective reservations as a natural skeptic. I also almost
took a short as a hedge given the descending triangle pattern, while hodling the rest of my stash, but in the end after further analysis I realised the times when these patterns don't break bearish is often during the 1-year up trends. So the idea of it having a 80-90% chance of breaking down with another 50% drop became completely invalidated for me. It did
remind me of 2019 however, even if the pattern not so clean (also looked like a broadening wedge), so I considered it more of a bear trap - which it turned out to be.
Overall I was more convinced that with the 50+% correction, price therefore had more of a chance to go higher than initial expectations of $100-150K, as it looked more similar to 2012 than 2018 for sure, or a completely different uber bullish longer term trend we have never seen before (something WIlly Woo recently touched upon, the "super cycle" possibility). That and
looking at analysis from over a year ago, this really helped rationalize the situation for me. For sure price got over-extended too far too fast, but ultimately we remained on track regardless.
Naturally any hedge wouldn't have been for $ gains, it would of simply been an attempt to increase BTC holdings, with ultimately still the projection of Bitcoin price making new ATH high this year anyway. So I never actually considered the bear market had come, this seemed high unlikely to me, but I didn't rule this out or the idea of another fake-out. No doubt the sort of fake-out that institutions so desperately craved and
could have manipulated in order to position themselves properly, knowing many of them f**cked up. Instead of seems they gave up and just decided to short gold instead