Just a little reminder for the Bitcoin price watchers! The price will drop slightly today, because a lot of people will be buying some goods and services with some of their bitcoins. These bitcoins will increase the supply of bitcoins on exchanges and we might see a little drop in the price as a direct result of that.
The worst drop has already occured days ago, so I don't think people will panic a lot because of Friday. The price has fallen 5% already as the day is almost over in Europe. USA hasn't started it yet, so I guess another 5% drop by the nest morning is realistic. I think it's okay when the price drops because people need to buy stuff. If they could pay with btc, they wouldn't sell their coins.
Your logic is perfectly sound, I just don't think that there's enough people spending bitcoin today for it to have any noticeable influence on the price. It would need to be millions of dollars or more to move the market. Either way, merit for your actual grasp of the situation and the underlying economics behind it.
Well, from what I see, people are absolutely crazy about Black Friday. I found information that last year retailers in the US earned $7.9 billion dollars. You are saying that millions will need to be moved out of the market, which will be some really low percentage even for the US, whereas we also have the rest of the world!