February 07, 2025, 12:02:23 AM

Welcome, Guest

News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 28.0 [Torrent]

Bitcoin Forum>Economy>Economics>Speculation

Author

Topic: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? (Read 4504 times)

bitbybit2

newbie

Activity: 56

Merit: 0

Quote from: Elwar on June 09, 2013, 10:16:30 AM

My guess would be one of those big million dollar investors from the bubble time is tired of seeing his money sitting in something that is not bringing a large return. So they moved on to something else.

Wrong. Speculation is based on some mega institution buying. I repeat buying and not selling an investment instrument. The drop is better for newbies but for the resilient miners the future is bright.

Saint!

newbie

Activity: 46

Merit: 0

Quote from: btc237ftw on June 11, 2013, 11:00:04 AM

Not a bad theory, I wonder if and what connection is there between the PRISM expose to this drop

I saw a news story about a link but personally I don't think the recent sells have anything to do with it. Purely coincidence

btc237ftw

full member

Activity: 157

Merit: 100

Quote

There has been a huge "asic rush" in the last days because several miners have become "available". Many meople might have moved their coins into buying some of those miners or a share in a "mining company".
If you look at the "custom hardware" section of the miners forum, you will see what is left of this "asic rush". Most of the group buys are over and people are back into market again.

but this is only a theory!

Not a bad theory, I wonder if and what connection is there between the PRISM expose to this drop

marlo_brando

newbie

Activity: 14

Merit: 0

There has been a huge "asic rush" in the last days because several miners have become "available". Many meople might have moved their coins into buying some of those miners or a share in a "mining company".
If you look at the "custom hardware" section of the miners forum, you will see what is left of this "asic rush". Most of the group buys are over and people are back into market again.

but this is only a theory!

b!z

legendary

Legendary level

Activity: 1582

Merit: 1010

Mt Gox lag + panic selling.

Crypt_Current

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 500

Shame on everything; regret nothing.

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote

Was there a Serious event causing current drop?

Yes! There was. A weekend.

One of those weekends I actually wish I (was able to have) bought instead of mining Cheesy

Cheesy

Wink

vokain

legendary

Legendary level

Activity: 1834

Merit: 1019

Quote from: BitPappa on June 09, 2013, 10:56:37 PM

What the hell? How did the (gox) price just jump from 96 to 110???

the market is always right

zby

legendary

Legendary level

Activity: 1594

Merit: 1001

Quote from: btc237ftw on June 09, 2013, 10:13:41 AM

Does anyone know? Because I was looking around the forum and on several news sites and did not see anything that can be a bases for a sudden drop in price.
I am not trying to speculate here, I'm looking for a serious General-discussion about why this current drop accrued.

Buyers are out of cash.

chufchuf

full member

Activity: 205

Merit: 100

What did they expect? btc is accepted at taobao, webmoney etc, its only ussa thats so political and liable and corporate and worried that their only export left is intellectual property, where the companies try to set up their own imitation coins lol

Swapster

member

Activity: 131

Merit: 10

I was looking one minute on CBX - price was $95... ten minutes later it's at $106.

The problem with the BTC market is there are no professional market makers to provide stability.

The Winklevoss twins should put their BTC to good use and create a MM firm.

Swapster

member

Activity: 131

Merit: 10

Quote from: kjj

P.S. The quantity sold is exactly equal to the quantity purchased. Shifts in price reflect a change in the relative desires to hold of the parties involved, only.

That ignores depth of book. Who buys/sells only tells the story about the top of the book.

BitPappa

sr. member

Activity: 431

Merit: 261

What the hell? How did the (gox) price just jump from 96 to 110???

AliceWonder

full member

Activity: 168

Merit: 100

Quote from: EricTyle on February 09, 2013, 10:43:11 AM

Quote from: thefiniteidea on February 02, 2013, 05:57:48 PM

which honestly, to me, is a term made popular by Keynesian's to hide the real facts, as price inflation/deflation is simply the market exchange rate, reflective of the money supply into a currency from itself and other currencies

I'm not sure if it's just me but I had a hard time understanding the underlined. Is that redundant? from itself and other currencies?

Anyways, with the ASICs coming out soon, what do you think the value of bitcoin will do for the the first couple of months? I feel like it will start to drop rather rapidly as people are trying to get their hands on more USD to compensate for their expenses. Then they would start to keep the BTC and the difficulty would rise so it would go back up?

I feel like it will start to drop rather rapidly as people are trying to get their hands on more USD to compensate for their expenses.

That's from https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/inflation-and-deflation-of-price-and-money-supply-140793 Post #7

Coincidence? I doubt it. I think he nailed it.

AliceWonder

full member

Activity: 168

Merit: 100

Quote from: BitPappa on June 09, 2013, 12:02:59 PM

Seems no one thinks a serious event caused the current drop.

My uneducated, newbie guess is manipulation plus fear.

My uneducated, newbie guess is that this is a relatively young currency and I would be far more suspicious of manipulation if things like this didn't happen.

bluemeanie1

sr. member

Activity: 280

Merit: 257

bluemeanie

Quote from: Welsh on June 09, 2013, 11:29:02 AM

Well, in my personal opinion. I believe it was the manufacturers of the ASIC were simply cashing out.

they could be pumping it up as well.

It's fairly simple really, if ASIC Rigs were such a great asset, wouldnt the companies just be mining rather then vending hardware?

firefop

sr. member

Activity: 420

Merit: 250

Quote from: Mahn on June 09, 2013, 02:56:57 PM

Quote from: doom309 on June 09, 2013, 01:28:27 PM

all this trying to guess why the drop happened, this could be addressed somewhat if mt gox had a live "market news" ticker on its website, so events could be interpreted better in terms of what is happening to price

There are no "market news" that triggered this, that's the whole point of the discussion here; we have to guess because there is no explicit reason for the drop to be found otherwise.

What about aurumxchange not dealing with bitcoin exchanges for awhile? Wasn't this the main way to move fiat between exchanges?

BitPappa

sr. member

Activity: 431

Merit: 261

Quote from: manfred on June 09, 2013, 06:11:07 PM

The only serious event is "The NSA files" (PRISM). As SHA-2 is made by the NSA and sits right at the heard of Bitcoin it puts up a lot of questions.

Did everyone trust the NSA before, but now with the exposure of PRISM, suddenly people think there's a greater chance that SHA-2 has a backdoor?

BitAddict

legendary

Legendary level

Activity: 1190

Merit: 1001

Quote from: Littleshop on June 09, 2013, 01:02:28 PM

Quote from: Welsh on June 09, 2013, 11:29:02 AM

Well, in my personal opinion. I believe it was the manufacturers of the ASIC were simply cashing out.

I would agree with this. Also small ASIC holders customers are more likely to hold and participate in the BTC economy while big players like ASICMINER are most likely to cash out. The balance has shifted to larger players until BFL and Avalon clones ship more.

The ASIC transition is rough but necessary.

+1 I think this is the key.

manfred

legendary

Legendary level

Activity: 966

Merit: 1001

Energy is Wealth

The only serious event is "The NSA files" (PRISM). As SHA-2 is made by the NSA and sits right at the heard of Bitcoin it puts up a lot of questions.

Roy Badami

hero member

Activity: 563

Merit: 500

Quote from: BitPappa on June 09, 2013, 03:42:08 PM

I was happy keeping money in Gox for awhile, and had a bunch of orders set up. But then I started getting nervous about the U.S. or Japan shutting Gox down (smarter people than me convinced me that was a possibility). If money transfers took hours or less, so I could buy and get the BTC out, I might think it worth the risk. But with it taking often a couple of business days to transfer money, I'm too nervous to put much into Gox now (with 20/20 hindsight, I wish I would have kept a little cash there to buy on this recent dip).

I also can't help but wonder, since Gox now seems to be in the U.S. government's line of fire, are all U.S. Banks still willing to keep wiring funds there?

True... I don't keep any funds in exchanges, which means I can't trade - but then I'm not much of a trader. I prefer to just buy and hold, so Gox and wire transfers work for me.

roy

BitPappa

sr. member

Activity: 431

Merit: 261

Quote from: Roy Badami on June 09, 2013, 03:34:30 PM

Get verified on Gox. Pay by wire transfer. Or for smaller amounts, if you're in Europe, and prepared to take the risk of going via Gox's Polish account, pay be SEPA.

Yeah, OK, if you're not in Europe you don't have the SEPA option, but really, I don't see what the problem is. For people investing in BTC they can probably live with the fees. Sure, the bank fees aren't much use for people who only want to buy a few dollars worth to spend, and we need better options... but the people buying a few dollars don't have any affect on the price.

roy

I was happy keeping money in Gox for awhile, and had a bunch of orders set up. But then I started getting nervous about the U.S. or Japan shutting Gox down (smarter people than me convinced me that was a possibility). If money transfers took hours or less, so I could buy and get the BTC out, I might think it worth the risk. But with it taking often a couple of business days to transfer money, I'm too nervous to put much into Gox now (with 20/20 hindsight, I wish I would have kept a little cash there to buy on this recent dip).

I also can't help but wonder, since Gox now seems to be in the U.S. government's line of fire, are all U.S. Banks still willing to keep wiring funds there?

Roy Badami

hero member

Activity: 563

Merit: 500

Quote from: reg on June 09, 2013, 10:20:39 AM

most of the channels for buying have been taken out!

Get verified on Gox. Pay by wire transfer. Or for smaller amounts, if you're in Europe, and prepared to take the risk of going via Gox's Polish account, pay be SEPA.

Yeah, OK, if you're not in Europe you don't have the SEPA option, but really, I don't see what the problem is. For people investing in BTC they can probably live with the fees. Sure, the bank fees aren't much use for people who only want to buy a few dollars worth to spend, and we need better options... but the people buying a few dollars don't have any affect on the price.

roy

Mahn

full member

Activity: 140

Merit: 100

Quote from: doom309 on June 09, 2013, 01:28:27 PM

all this trying to guess why the drop happened, this could be addressed somewhat if mt gox had a live "market news" ticker on its website, so events could be interpreted better in terms of what is happening to price

There are no "market news" that triggered this, that's the whole point of the discussion here; we have to guess because there is no explicit reason for the drop to be found otherwise.

doom309

full member

Activity: 170

Merit: 102

all this trying to guess why the drop happened, this could be addressed somewhat if mt gox had a live "market news" ticker on its website, so events could be interpreted better in terms of what is happening to price

Littleshop

legendary

Legendary level

Activity: 1386

Merit: 1004

Quote from: Welsh on June 09, 2013, 11:29:02 AM

Well, in my personal opinion. I believe it was the manufacturers of the ASIC were simply cashing out.

I would agree with this. Also small ASIC holders customers are more likely to hold and participate in the BTC economy while big players like ASICMINER are most likely to cash out. The balance has shifted to larger players until BFL and Avalon clones ship more.

The ASIC transition is rough but necessary.

lch

newbie

Activity: 28

Merit: 0

I think that we are in a bubble. So its not unnatural for price to drop quite a bit.

reg

sr. member

Activity: 463

Merit: 250

Quote from: kjj on June 09, 2013, 11:58:54 AM

Quote from: reg on June 09, 2013, 11:54:01 AM

Quote from: kjj

The difficulty increases only every 2016 blocks. If a lot of hashing power comes online quickly, the network can find blocks faster, for a short time. The same thing happens in reverse if the hash rate drops for some reason.

ok I get that-but if the pools hold the coins that should not affect the price . is it not only if there are more sellers than buyers the price drops? if so where are they selling? it appears mtgox and other exchanges are having difficulty in getting fiat into them to sell in high quantities?. reg.

You really need to learn to use the quote feature.

I was just answering the difficulty question. The cause of exchange rate shifts is unknowable, no matter how many threads pop up asking about or blaming gremlins.

P.S. The quantity sold is exactly equal to the quantity purchased. Shifts in price reflect a change in the relative desires to hold of the parties involved, only.

ok thanks- so some must be selling believing the price will go lower stil. reg

BitPappa

sr. member

Activity: 431

Merit: 261

Seems no one thinks a serious event caused the current drop.

My uneducated, newbie guess is manipulation plus fear. Not to mention, people are looking at the short term trend and saying to sell/short, helping to put more downward pressure on the price.

I don't think it means anything as far as the ~~bit~~ big picture goes (I keep making that typo).

And yes to kjj's comments.

kjj

legendary

Legendary level

Activity: 1302

Merit: 1026

Quote from: reg on June 09, 2013, 11:54:01 AM

Quote from: kjj

The difficulty increases only every 2016 blocks. If a lot of hashing power comes online quickly, the network can find blocks faster, for a short time. The same thing happens in reverse if the hash rate drops for some reason.

ok I get that-but if the pools hold the coins that should not affect the price . is it not only if there are more sellers than buyers the price drops? if so where are they selling? it appears mtgox and other exchanges are having difficulty in getting fiat into them to sell in high quantities?. reg.

You really need to learn to use the quote feature.

I was just answering the difficulty question. The cause of exchange rate shifts is unknowable, no matter how many threads pop up asking about or blaming gremlins.

P.S. The quantity sold is exactly equal to the quantity purchased. Shifts in price reflect a change in the relative desires to hold of the parties involved, only.

reg

sr. member

Activity: 463

Merit: 250

The difficulty increases only every 2016 blocks. If a lot of hashing power comes online quickly, the network can find blocks faster, for a short time. The same thing happens in reverse if the hash rate drops for some reason.

ok I get that-but if the pools hold the coins that should not affect the price . is it not only if there are more sellers than buyers the price drops? if so where are they selling? it appears mtgox and other exchanges are having difficulty in getting fiat into them to sell in high quantities?. reg.

kjj

legendary

Legendary level

Activity: 1302

Merit: 1026

Quote from: reg on June 09, 2013, 11:43:09 AM

It may also have to do with the fact that we are producing far more than 3600 bitcoins per day, in a sustained rate for several months now. At this moment, for example, we are at 176 blocks per day. Last week I believe we reached 200 blocks per day just before the difficulty change.

I did not know this? I thought the difficulty rate kept block production at 1 every 10 mins? what happens when asics really hit then?. reg

The difficulty increases only every 2016 blocks. If a lot of hashing power comes online quickly, the network can find blocks faster, for a short time. The same thing happens in reverse if the hash rate drops for some reason.

reg

sr. member

Activity: 463

Merit: 250

It may also have to do with the fact that we are producing far more than 3600 bitcoins per day, in a sustained rate for several months now. At this moment, for example, we are at 176 blocks per day. Last week I believe we reached 200 blocks per day just before the difficulty change.

I did not know this? I thought the difficulty rate kept block production at 1 every 10 mins? what happens when asics really hit then?. reg

Stark-Fujikawa

full member

Activity: 150

Merit: 100

Quote from: btceic on June 09, 2013, 10:44:43 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Can anybody with access to the original email grab the headers we might be able to trace is source.

These people are time wizards of some sort. June 9 2013 is now a Saturday.

Welsh

staff

Activity: 3332

Merit: 4117

Well, in my personal opinion. I believe it was the manufacturers of the ASIC were simply cashing out.

Shawshank

legendary

Legendary level

Activity: 1623

Merit: 1608

It may also have to do with the fact that we are producing far more than 3600 bitcoins per day, in a sustained rate for several months now. At this moment, for example, we are at 176 blocks per day. Last week I believe we reached 200 blocks per day just before the difficulty change.

QuestionAuthority

legendary

Legendary level

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1393

You lead and I'll watch you walk away.

Jeez, I'm sorry. I just wanted to buy a new Airstream trailer to vacation this summer and needed some cash. I had no idea you would all get bent outa shape over it.
jk

skilo

sr. member

Activity: 321

Merit: 250

The whole thing with Mt.Gox is probably causing most of it.

vokain

legendary

Legendary level

Activity: 1834

Merit: 1019

psychological shift is all

Micky25

legendary

Legendary level

Activity: 974

Merit: 1000

it could have been

1. the 3 black helicopters floating around my home, shooting radio waves at my computer,
2. people realizing that soon all BTC-cashout options are destroyed,
or
3. the asic guys (manufacturers) cashing out

btceic

sr. member

Activity: 392

Merit: 250

♫ A wave came crashing like a fist to the jaw ♫

Quote from: ?? on ??

It was because of this fake email which was distributed on Saturday night, and then the usual noobs started panic selling. And I publicly accuse the "fontas" moron of doing this. He "predicted" a crash on June 8/9, and spread the scam email to make sure it would happen so he could recoup the losses from his previous failed pumps and dumps. I won't reply to anyone about this, I've said enough on the BTC-e chat box already. It's because of scum like this guy that Bitcoin's price is so unstable and the end result is that more "serious" people who would be welcome to join Bitcoin avoid doing it.

BTW, notice the pathetic invalid IPv4 address on the email, with one of the 4 numbers being 523...

Can anybody with access to the original email grab the headers we might be able to trace is source.

ChrisJ

full member

Activity: 146

Merit: 100

Quote from: ?? on ??

It was because of this fake email which was distributed on Saturday night, and then the usual noobs started panic selling. And I publicly accuse the "fontas" moron of doing this. He "predicted" a crash on June 8/9, and spread the scam email to make sure it would happen so he could recoup the losses from his previous failed pumps and dumps. I won't reply to anyone about this, I've said enough on the BTC-e chat box already. It's because of scum like this guy that Bitcoin's price is so unstable and the end result is that more "serious" people who would be welcome to join Bitcoin avoid doing it.

BTW, notice the pathetic invalid IPv4 address on the email, with one of the 4 numbers being 523...

This is interesting and would certainly have all the hall marks of Fontas MO. He tends to leave hidden messages for those smart enough to find them in his communications.

ChrisJ

full member

Activity: 146

Merit: 100

Someone else asked this. I have been following a guy on Twitter called @SirBitsALot and commented on it here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2419960

He thinks it is price manipulation, someone dumping coins shaking weak hands out of their positions and then buying back lower. If true this would mean he must be quite bullish.

CanadianGuy

full member

Activity: 196

Merit: 100

yeah everybody got confused when the media stopped talking about it for 5 days and started a panic. "OMG WE HAVEN'T MADE HEADLINES FOR TOO LONG, SELL SELL SELL. THE HYPE IS GONE".
Umm yeeeeah, i love daytrading

NeonRonin

newbie

Activity: 31

Merit: 0

We're also going into the summer months for North America and Europe; people are going to want liquid cash to spend on holidays and vacations. I would suspect we'll see some volatility for the next month or two, with some great buying opportunities presenting themselves.

reg

sr. member

Activity: 463

Merit: 250

most of the channels for buying have been taken out! however I used localbitcoin.com for the first time today and was pleasantly surprised (included escrow etc). I do not know about selling though. the drop in my "opinion" is due primarily to market forces. on the plus side adoption seems to be growing exponentially-we may be close to a tipping point. reg

Jgguy

full member

Activity: 120

Merit: 100

The hype over bitcoin is dying back down. Honestly it might be better this way as bitcoin needs people to use it to buy things, not hold it like gold.

Elwar

legendary

Legendary level

Activity: 3598

Merit: 2386

Viva Ut Vivas

My guess would be one of those big million dollar investors from the bubble time is tired of seeing his money sitting in something that is not bringing a large return. So they moved on to something else.

btc237ftw

full member

Activity: 157

Merit: 100

Does anyone know? Because I was looking around the forum and on several news sites and did not see anything that can be a bases for a sudden drop in price.
I am not trying to speculate here, I'm looking for a serious General-discussion about why this current drop accrued.

Bitcoin Forum>Economy>Economics>Speculation

Jump to: