Topic: Wasn't this crypto-crash (course) needed? (Read 408 times)

This is actually the third bear market that bitcoin has seen. The first one was in 2011, and the second was a vicious one from 2013 to 2016.

This one isn't that bad because we're still above $3000. Remember the big event was in early 2017 when bitcoin passed the price of gold. It is now holding at three times the price of gold, which is a fair position to be in.

I know everyone's opinion is different, they think the big popes can manipulate the market anytime, maybe this is true, if the big popes drop BTC prices, automatically the other crypto prices will fall, they may be careful in crypto

FYI, if you didn't read what I wrote in OP, read back again. We're none to blame whales because they've got OTC as a better option over offloading their money at exchanges, I've had the same thinking that you currently have, but my mind changed once I observed and researched about the complete FUD that's being spread amongst us that there will be big investors trying to invest and they're not getting either ways to put their money in this. Nobody here, none of those big whales would be happy as I've even seen those whales going rekt over exchanges like Bitmex and OKex by going all in on bets with such high leverages that their portfolio couldn't resist liquidity. Again, it's not just the whales who tried to get a treat by growing their BTC (those who actually knew something and made enormous BTC to cover their losses in USD), but even people like us shorted and made a difference.

after not meeting the expectations of many people, of course, panic is expected to occur, so prices fall further, and they can take advantage of the situation. Hopefully, even though it's not as expected, at the end of this year we still see a green market

Market always move in opposite direction from the general public anticipation. People were thinking that in December 2018 they may see the bull run, but it happen totally opposite. The market crashed from 6000$ to 3000$ in this period and it was a planned move by the whales to get the coins in cheap.

ICOs are one another reason why Bitcoin and Ethereum soared to these lows, they were mostly scams (who ran away with people's money by cheating both - the participants who invested and the markets by selling off whatever they collected. I don't say that all of them were cheaters, but most of them offloaded their assets and converted them into fiat and in the vie of these, those ICOs which had a real motive and were really doing something in their industry, stopped their developments after they found that their projects won't succeed at those values.


Yeah, it's true that they bought even at lower levels than ATH and were all in bigger profits (like when the value of their tokens and BTC both were going high, it was a win-win situation for them). What could've motivated good ICOs to cheat the markets by breaking down the value of BTC and ETH in USD? Their self-interest. When the value started shaking off towards down, users with ICO tokens might've wanted to get out of BTC and ETH, so they started selling off their tokens for cheap to either short BTC or just sell everything they had.


This is why the values didn't stabilize and we saw a gradual downturn, the confidence level of most people who went all in with either their families or friends involved, lost it all after all this happened and even if they lost theirs, new people (who were not the part of last year's bull run) will commit the same mistakes and bring their families in this ^business^ and once the bull run begins, they'll start offloading their assets by dumping their coin on their families and friends only by selling those coins to them only, because as I said, their selfishness is all they'll have during that time.

I have another theory.

When Bitmex introduced the ETH/USD contract, but based on the BTC/USD  pair, not on ETH or USD, their ruined it. Everybody begin to short and this dragged a great panic on the market. Then most ICO lost their funding, creating even more panic, etc. And we all know what is the result - 1/8 ATH....

Let's hope that 2019 will bring us recovery!

In the end, we are dealing with a market that has two sides to it. One side most people here had no problem with enjoying last year, and the other (ugly) side is what gets people depressed. Sure, the market doesn't look good, but this is what happens when people buy coins blindly regardless of the price in order to buy into ICO's.

The reason people didn't care what levels they bought at is because of how tokens were priced against the US dollar. If you want to buy $10,000 worth of ICO tokens, it doesn't matter if you buy Ether at $1000 or Bitcoin at $15,000, the result is still that you get $10,000 worth of ICO tokens. In that regard, Bitcoin and Ethereum could have easily broken through $30,000 and $2000 if the craze lasted longer.

It's just waiting for the next hype to pop up and we repeat the same cycle again. People never learn. I thought they would, but the idiotic gamblers we were dealing with years ago are still here, and they brought their friends and family with them.

I totally agree that we needed this short that we faced (many of us the hardest way). It was a corrective year as the boom that happened in 2018 brought up many ICOs and projects that couldn't sustain their concept. They just showed up in order to reap the benefits of the hype and get some easy money.
Now we, investors, are more cautious and examine better their investing decisions when they read about a project. Personally, I study a lot about the team that introduces the project and the marketing techniques that they use for their promotion.

Sorry for not talking about trading but it is not my expertise. I wanted to bring to the table the huge problem that we face with the numerous ICOs that came up during and right after the boom. After all, this is how economies work, right? After a period of ups, downs are inevitable.

The part you are missing out is that whales that drop the price from 20k to 4k usually spends that money on short futures as well so they could make the double of that money. If you want to put your money into bitcoin at 20 thousand dollars you need to spend so much money to increase it and keep it up however if you sell them you get your money back and if you are whale than when you sell a lot of coins you can drop the price all by yourself (well at least couple whales coming together could) and they go out and use that money to leverage their short futures and take advantage of the drop twice, they are both profiting from the fact that bitcoin dropped so their dollar could buy more bitcoins but also they profit from the short futures as well.

So, when someone sells 100 million dollars worth of bitcoin at 20 thousand dollars they sell about 5 thousand bitcoins but with the short futures profit and the lower price of bitcoin at say 12 thousand dollars they could get back 10 thousand bitcoins instead. So these people just sold 5 thousand bitcoins but rebought 10 thousand thanks to short futures and dropping prices. That's how they made their insane profits.

Whether motivated by gaining more fiat or more bitcoin shorting was still a great move when using hindsight. Even those of us who fully understand market cycles can easily lie to ourselves and say that the top isn't in yet. As always the top comes in before people actually think that it will, like wise the bottom comes in as people starting calling new lows.

Yes, the crash was needed to get rid of all the speculators and the people shorting Bitcoin, because they are causing most of the decline in the price. Once we rid ourselves from these people, then we can concentrate on natural growth and natural adoption and none of this fake pumping to satisfy the greed of these speculators.

Unfortunately, once we go mainstream with Bitcoin, these profit hunters will flood back to Bitcoin and we will see a repeat of this scenario.  

Right, and when everyone thought that the price would go on a parabolic rise (their first mistake), the market suddenly turns into a bearish one and those who are caught off guard didn't know what the hell happened and they get out and reset everything and we do hope that they learn their lessons very well (crypto crash course) and make them a better trader next time around. And I'm sure that this is a wake up call for the majority of traders to know that this markets works on a cycles of bulls/bears.

This is because probably bitcoin is being controlled by an group and now that may consider as elite and rich. As we all know that cryptocurrency is created from an electronic based currency that has been generated with the fiat that is being invested in the system. THe team has relatively did not invest money but they collect money from the investors that could be used to them and they do reasoning about market price correction. Greedy as they are!

I agree with this.

It aint a right pump. It is not a common pump. People would say because bitcoin is something new or is different. But in terms of the market and investing it is just the same as stocks and commodities that are being short.

There is no one to blame on this. Even those with small amounts of BTC could have made some profit out of that BS value that was given.
Lucky are those who made the right decision but where are they now?
When it is fiat that you are holding it can easily be consumed. They might even thought of just getting out and not back in.
I want them to feel that regret for the next 5 years.

The only reason why people feel this crash is somewhat strange is cos of the bubble last year, it rose believe,even among those who had a clear paltry knowledge of what the bitcoin investment is all about.
This belief even rose to the extent of the feeling that the bitcoin would resist a crash,the hype was just so much and everyone was looking to make money and zoom off
This is the reality of things,bitcoin is not a get rich quick scheme

I think that the crash was very much needed given that the rise isn't really organic in any way. Everyone thought that the rise to $19k was somewhat strong and would hold while most people are already on the sell-side of things just waiting for the go signal before they offload their assets. Needless to say, only the delusional perma-bulls believed that we can still make a push, and they are the same ones who learned a grim lesson which is costly to say the least. What comes up must come down, and they thought bitcoin was 'too big to fail' until it fell right before their eyes.

George Soros explains this very clearly in "The Alchemy of Finance"

Everyone wanted to hoard coins in order to sell.

Since most cryptos had four digit gains in 2017 everyone thought of selling at the same time.

Until cryptos become widespread accepted and become actual currency, everyone's just buying waiting to sell when the next bull market happens.

You thus get boom / bust cycles.

Last year, the level of speculation reached to such unbelievable heights that everyone went under the sway effect of getting rich quickly and you can't deny the fact this time that they really had a reason to short it - not to make money, but to make Bitcoins. Every other crash that happened before was not an opportunity but just a loss, but this time, loss itself got transacted to huge profits for those who knew this was going to happen (as I said that correction was in talks during those days). Something that's yet to happen and we only talk optimistic won't really get us anywhere sometimes, but gives a chance to those who've got something more to bet on the negative side of that thing.

The crash was an inevitability, as it always is when a market goes parabolic like the crypto market did last year. For those of us who were new to the market and got caught up in it, it can provide an invaluable learning experience. For most it will just lead to loss and for them to panic and quit on crypto.

The question itself says most of what I'm trying to talk here. Hey, don't get me wrong when I say that we needed this, yeah really. You guys must be aware of herd mentality, right?

What happened actually (in my views):
We always talk about big institutional investors doing all this with their so-called whale friends and taking the value all the way down to almost 1/8th its ATH, and what's so amazing here is, they're ^going to^ make more money with this? Holy shit. It's all really bullshit, yeah that's what I call it when I accepted it and then evaluated the whole market situation. Are you really sure those damn whales are stupid enough to sell their high-quality diamonds (BTC) for the price of peanuts? Think again. Everyone was so amazed watching BTC going all the way up from $1000 to straight away $20k in just 1 year, the (negative) herd mentality of people drew them in a situation where they were only thinking that BTC will remain at those levels and will go more and more higher, and the opposite was what exactly happened. Really? Dumb as fuck. The simple answer is - NO. It was going to have futures established where everyone would be getting an opportunity to earn more and more "BTC" through shorting it.

Hey, how the hell can you say that, jerk?
- Well yeah, you and me must be jerking off while people (who had the power to think it in a different way) chose the other side of the coin, i.e.; go ahead and short it. During the peak time when these people knew that every BTC user will only speak optimistically and remain positive for their investment, that's when they decided to act on an opportunity promptly (heard that phrase: strike while the iron is hot??) Come on, we shouldn't be blaming whales alone for this as it's people like us only who thought the other way is right, they went onto making BTC one of the most profitable assets even while shorting. While you and me were losing our money's value in USD alone, they were also losing their USD valuations but gaining more BTC through their short positions.

What? Really? But, but why would they do this and take it down all the way to 3k? Why 3k only? It could have been 6k or 10k, right?
- Principle of earning more with leverage at least values. Think how easy it would be to make a 100% on a 10x leverage when 1 BTC would be 3300 and they short it till 3k? Straight 2x and what you lost in USD value? 300 USD per BTC if you go for 1 full, but you'll make 2700 bucks extra (3k x 2 BTC = 6k USD - 300 USD loss in value - 3k USD principal). The same would be a lot harder for them to push it down and make the same 100% with least risk of 10x leverage if the price would have been between 6k-10k.

P.S.: This was needed as it was in the talks since the beginning of the so-called pump, that we thought, is some kinda stable growth. It was a crash course for everyone to learn that not all investments could get you rich overnight, esp. Bitcoin. I'm not trying to say anything negative here, but all I want is you should understand that not all investors can profit in a genre like crypto and you need to think very differently, out of the box kinda thinking in order to outsmart those traders who think they'll beat you.