Topic: We are facing a new recession ten years after the previous one... (Read 307 times)

I agree - people just went crazy for the purchases. I doubt why don't people use water instead of toilet paper. It saves so much money and its more effective.
I have seen people filling trolley and running for the toilet paper - it was crazy for us - because we use water. haha

This is what matters the most, but unfortunately many people start panicking, and spreading panic around the world.

As it always happens after each and every crisis, the global economy will recover and will reach even higher level then before. And the same will happen to BTC and ETH. Expect new ATHs, not the end of the world.

Those history‐doomed regimes like Iran's, North Korean's, Putin's and such are on the verge of collapse, and they want the whole world die with them. But this is not what's going to happen. Regardless of what they wish for, the the global economy will recover, and it will happen sooner than many might expect.

Everyone has a choice that they think can be very good even if it's not necessarily good for you or for you personally for that matter. And maybe some people prefer to use toilet paper because they think it's more effective even if it's not more effective for you personally. I still think it's natural that some people go crazy over buying, because maybe they remember the lowest price they've seen in the market but don't have time to make a purchase, so try to make a perfect purchase another time even though the price has changed.

Wrong op. A new recession isn't here yet though it's pretty close. Musk isn't God or something which is why I have no idea why gullible fools like you think that he can foresee the future or something just because he is the richest person in the world currently.

Also, many popular cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH etc will recover once the global economy recovers which is inevitable at some point in the future.

The increase in the price of gas are not new but it already happened during the war of Ukraine and Russia due to sanctions and for the increase of the price of toilet papers, it started during the peak of covid 19.

We feel a relief last time but nowadays maybe the issue is happening again and that is because of the recession. Increase in salary can depend on your employer. If they are kind and they are aware that there are economic crises then they will increase the salary of their employees. If not then you can try to do a side hustle if you really want to increase the income that you are currently receiving. A lot of us may skip investing in crypto for now because we already invest some before and maybe some will only sell to have some money with them.

That was a crypto bear and not an economic recession, though it’s pretty similar but with crypto we are on a different level right now. The recession 10 years ago was the reason why Bitcoin created if I’m not mistaken and now with the possible recession, Bitcoin is already here and trying to stay above the support level. There’s a lot of instances that made this recession more worst, as many countries suffers with higher debts and inflation, this can result to a longer bear trend and that could affect crypto market.

Include unaccounted for inflation and we've been in inflation alot longer then just recently.  Certainly, ask any common worker if they have become richer during times of apparent GDP growth and its very possible they inform you no, their income has dropped relative to costs.   The biggest mistake to make is take all government statistics as a reflection of what exactly is going on, they will state growth with reference to political objectives and nobody is going to argue with what appears to be growth if ignoring the large amounts of new money circulating.
  The only reason for wider confusion is society has benefitted from technology usage which helps lower costs some, otherwise the situation would have been more obvious a while back.

Yes, if the others can do it with living frugally. Well, we can also do it and we just have to adjust with the lifestyle that we're living.

If it's not sustainable, you better downgrade your way of living so that you'll still be able to make your ends meet and have your basic needs.

Spend on most important things and the basic needs, if you can't afford it, don't buy it and don't loan for it because you're making the situation tougher and I've been there and experienced that so, a big lesson has learned.

We had face the same painful dump during the year of 2017 and more in 2018.After some struggles,the price of bitcoin was Upto the maximum reach to the 10k dollars.After the new all time high of 21k dollars,their was huge pump in the price of bitcoin.The price of bitcoin tends to increase to the next level of 40k dollars.New people get into the trading after the 40k dollars.So the price of bitcoin was increased Upto the value of 65k dollars.It’s hard to view the 40k dollars for now due to huge dump.

Unfortunately there aren't enough money to create a gap between low-medium and then high earners. People are moving towards a world where the owners would make as much as possible, but the employees are close to each other. Long gone the days where you would live a good life if you studied in college, or have some expertise in a field, everyone is making close to each other these days.

In my nation someone with minimum wage and someone who makes 4x more than minimum wage do not live a very different life, one cares about their money a bit more of course, but the other doesn't live like kings neither, it's definitely very close.

I'm not denying that, it's a fact shared by all government employees. Honestly I don't know what's causing the government not to raise salaries for its employees, it's been getting them having a really bad inflation impact lately.

I can imagine how the life of the non-employees who survive this inflation, it's really bad in my opinion. The percentage of poverty will continue to rise and unemployment due to layoffs as well, so the problem will be very complex when the government fails to prevent the impact of inflation and recession.

Convince yourself, the best possibilities will be in the crypto market. So don't just think about negative things due to the impact of current economic conditions, in fact ATH will not happen every year in a row.

Changing our lifestyle would be the most challenging thing that we have to do during this period. From buying the things that we want, we must buy only the things that we need including our commodities, and focus on saving in case we reach the recession period.
If we'll not take control of our finances, we could possibly suffer more if ever the prices of our primary necessities would increase much as possible, we better look for more job opportunities so we can earn higher to sustain our living. A single and minimum-wage job isn't enough during this crisis.

There have been many events claimed to be potentially apocalyptic over the years. At the turn of the millennium there was the Y2K bug. In the 1970s it was peak oil. More recently we have 5G, climate change, aliens and zombie apocalypses. It takes time and energy to dig through the mass hysteria to pinpoint what the actual cause of our current crisis is. Most lack the time and will to try it. Not knowing the origins story of our current crisis, makes it easier for us to support everything causing the crisis. An improved emphasis on knowledge and information are the only keys to addressing current crisis and preventing future crisis.

I for one am very glad people are not simply supporting trendy proposals like they used to. We are definitely beginning to pay more attention to current events. Skepticism and critical thought are on the rise. Many issues are being broken down logically and rationally. Its refreshing and great to see. It used to be impossible to get people to take topics like the deficit and national debt seriously. We are beginning to recognize the importance of supporting the right policies to maintain a stable and robust economy.

Most of the questions I have seen people ask about wages and economic conditions can be answered with a few keyword searches. It seems as if googles search engine never truly gained mass adoption. I hope people realize there are many alternatives to google search. Many of which work better atm.

The problem is..... every recession has a trigger event and in this recession the trigger was the Covid pandemic and on top of that the Ukranian/Russian war. Now, the question is.... how do you reverse the impact of these triggers, when the war is still having an influence over the Oil price and people are still out of jobs as a result of all the Covid lock downs.

The global economy can only improve, when you create new jobs and if you can find alternative resources for the Oil that are not being sold to the European countries and also if you can increase Wheat/Sun flower production in other countries.  

Regardless of what Reps are sure about, let's hope it won't happen. The last thing you need during an economical crisis is a political turmoil in the world's most powerful country. I'm not trying to say that if Reps win, it will be an apocalypse, but I really doubt they can manage the situation better than Democrats.

So I was right about small sample error.


You only needed to cross the Ireland/UK border to have complete oposite view. Because average salary there pumped by 20% from 2008. - https://www.statista.com/statistics/1002964/average-full-time-annual-earnings-in-the-uk/
Pumped by 16% in germany - https://www.statista.com/statistics/416207/average-annual-wages-germany-y-on-y-in-euros/
by 25% in France - https://www.statista.com/statistics/416204/average-annual-wages-france-y-on-y-in-euros/
by 42% in USA - https://www.statista.com/statistics/200838/median-household-income-in-the-united-states/

The salaries that are increasing are those jobs that are having hard time to have people applying for like in Mcdonalds and other the same chains. They're increasing their hourly pay rate because they need more people to work for them but only a few applies for it.

But globally, it's true that many jobs don't get the salary increase as they're also struggling as they've just gotten now after 2 years of being stuck with the covid-19 protocols and suspension of those businesses that are non necessary.

As we deal with this hard times, we have to be smart in how we spend our assets and savings and as well as be wise with our expenditures.

You need to check your fact well before writing, the last global recession was over a decade ago and it was in 2009. I was surprised to read most of what you wrote, including the lowering of interest rates when inflation is high. Who does that? Interest rates are being hiked during the inflation periods as the world is experiencing right now. Specifically, within a year, the US increased the Federal Funds Rate from <0.25% to between 3-3.25%. This is a huge hike and all the notable countries of the world are doing the same as well.

I agree somewhat, eventhough it's a small sample we are definitely not isolated. I have listened
to reports over the the years and recently which state that low to middle earners have not seen
the same salaries as prior to the last recession.

True, there are sectors which have had handsome wage increases but I would argue they are not
the majority. We are not called the "squeezed middle" for nothing. We are the majority so we feel
it the most.

I tried looking for some evidence of this and can only find the average wages over the last 12 years
in my country, bear in mind that almost 50% of the population live in or around the capital.

The chart shows that wages have increased by €1000 over 12 years "average"

https://www.statista.com/statistics/416212/average-annual-wages-ireland-y-on-y-in-euros/

"Everyone I know" is not a valid argument in any conversation because it has a small-sample error. "Everyone you know" most likely is from the same country, most likely from the same region, most likely with symilar education level etc. Also "Everyone I know" is impossible to verify, impossible to challenge and impossible to discuss further.

The only thing I can say here is - Everyone I know is earning more now than before the last recession 2008/2009.

Also you did not mention if you are talking about lower salary or lower purchasing power of salary.

Before that happens, we still have a chance to prepare ourselves to avoid that inflation. We can do many things to stay afloat in that difficult situation and won't be more affected.

But what I'm worried about is what Elon Musk said could cause panic because he's good at making words that can trigger panic and make the situation worse and take advantage of that.

But it seems that Covid-19 triggered this inflation 2-3 years ago, when basic necessities became scarce, especially the supply of health items that hospitals urgently need. And now, even though Covid-19 has started to decrease, we still have to survive to live because many of us have seen a reduction in company employees.

Everyone I know is earning less now than before the last recession 2008/2009, I can vouch
for what the OP is saying on that point.


Well it's interest rates which are being used to counter recession, this will hurt low to
middle income earners, same as the last recession, they were the group who paid the most.


I agree, this all started with COVID-19 and the resulting money printing which followed,
then following was the war in Ukraine and the resulting increase in everything.

For sure we are in for tough times.

Currently we are facing difficult times, maybe as you said that this problem will last a long time and we must be prepared until the country's economy can return to normal because it is very influential in all aspects including the crypto world, currently the crypto market is getting worse and there are already many coins that cannot survive until they are lost in the crypto market, if a country's economy can't improve anytime soon then don't expect everything to be back to normal as it was last year, but this is all up to us to continue to survive in the crypto world because all this is not easy for us to live with.

Between 8 to 10 years has the been the normal time interval in which we are seeing a crisis now a days. If you look historical at the global data for the last 40 years you can see a lot of the crisis happening on average 8-10 years apart. In the 1980s you had the Savings and Loan Crisis in the United States where a lot of small banks had too many bad loans. Then in the 1990s you had the Asian debt crisis again affecting the global financial system and resulting in negative economic growth around the world. Then in the 2000s you had the DotCom bubble crushing Tech stocks globally again. In 2008 you had the subprime mortgage crisis and then recently you had European sovereign crisis, corona crisis and now the high inflation. It seems that recently we had more problems than in the past, this is likely due to the long period of time with low interest. For more than 10 years we have interest rates close to 0%, it was just a matter of time for inflation to pick up again.

It's lame when we think of people with a fortune of only about $1 million versus people with billions of dollars. I find it very easy to predict the economic recession that was predicted a few years ago, since the outbreak of the epidemic. Many of the problems that come with it are very bad. And now we're at a time where the economy is having a lot of trouble, war is going on in different areas, but honestly, I think it's the individual who's being affected and adapting to the change every day. Everything is like an experience and it is impossible to do otherwise. Anyway, I hope we get through this difficult time soon. I wish for everyone and everything to be strong.

Our last recession was 2 years ago during covid.

Right now what we have is already a recession and the one we are in is stagflation. Basically record low unemployment , negative productivity and high inflation. It’s not good.

Every month people are hoping the inflation numbers or unemployment rates go up however not much is changing and it’s leading to higher fed rates which is causing all this bond market mess.

No idea when it will finally crack.

Why blame the Fed for the current recession, I think in the last decade the economy has been very stable and the economy is going up there is no reason why they suddenly raised interest rates to economy slows down. The covid pandemic and war happened so suddenly, these two things caused the economy to crash and fall into crisis, forcing the Fed to raise interest rates to control inflation. Raising interest rates will bring inflation down but I doubt it will not stabilize if the war doesn't end but the task of the Fed will only be to raise rates because they have no better solution.

And more talks about the recession continues, this could probably be the worst recession in recent time but there are chances that it may even get worse in 2023.
The global finance is in shambles and I think the Corona virus pandemic many not be the sole reason but to put it plainly the finance of the globe has yet recovered full from its causes.

I think the currency measures put to tackle inflation and recession are becoming outdated and not effective so if they can integrate new measures one that hasn't yet been tried it might lead us somewhere.

And this is what really bothers me of all of this, a bunch of people take decisions which we later find out were mistaken, but who are the ones which have to pay for those mistakes? Not them of course but the general public, a person could do everything right, study hard, get a good job, save for their future, invest and take a mortgage and suddenly out of nowhere they find themselves without a job, owing a lot of money and inflation eating their savings away, and there is not much they can do to protect themselves from this and end up wondering what they did wrong and how their life could have taken such a bad turn? But it was not really their fault that such things happened to them.

You don't have to be Elon Musk to understand that today's crisis is more complex. Here Musk is absolutely right, although recently he sometimes surprises with his statements
But back to the problems. If the financial and economic crisis a decade ago was triggered by "soap bubbles" and overvalued areas of the economy, today's problem is much more complicated. Today's problem concerns more significant areas:
- a total violation of world legislation, obligations, with the complete impotence of all international institutions that should have dealt with such issues.
- corruption, venality, cowardice,  betrayal in the highest echelons of politicians in many countries, which has surfaced now, but was founded decades ago. Although even now many are sold faster than "port prostitutes".
- monopolization of the world's leading economies, energy supplies from inadequate suppliers. Which leads to a global change in hydrocarbon supply patterns. As well as long-term problems in the industrial sector.
- the coincidence of several global problems, in a short time. Covid and then the global terrorist war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine, and the economic war of Russia against the EU.
- Now we will still be watching the squeals and tantrums of the two "fraternal terrorist regimes" - Russia and Iran, due to the expected investigation into the supply of weapons to the "second most powerful army in the world" from Iran, which automatically becomes an accomplice in this crime.

Therefore, most likely, the world will finish off the problems caused by all of the above for another 3-5 years (optimistic forecast)

After the previous global economic crisis, I sort of came to think that recessions will happen again, and that they are almost bound to happen once in a decade, more or less. I thought it was possible to postpone it and some events could bring it upon humanity sooner, but that it's just how the current global economy functions. Am I wrong about this? If not, then why are people acting like the recession is outrageous or that it's due to the war? There was also Covid, and that was bound to have a negative effect. Even prior to Covid, there were speculations that the recession should hit around 2020. It's 2022, and it's finally here. It's bad and probably just getting started, and yeah, it'll take a few years to get out of it, but I don't see it per se as surprising.

I think we are to wait until next month when US congress will be taken over by the Rep which seems the Reps are sure about it.
Maybe what we experience now can change for the better when decisions and policies can be reversed. Maybe FED will lower interest rates again. We are seeing banks getting bailed out already so this could go to a healthier economy again.

Musk could be saying the truth though. The rich people on earth are already speaking about it including Bezos but these guys are unaffected. They say things when they can benefit.

The interest rates were kept too low for too long. So many companies over leveraged themselves with the cheap money and now the money is getting more expensive, naturally they will suffer from it. It is the FED’s fault keeping the rates too low for nearly a decade and now is the payback time. It is not going to be pretty for many people because most of them will lose their jobs and life savings.

Regardless if Musk statement is true or not. It’s important to expect the worst case scenario and play safe just not be caught on potential more price slippage. I don’t see harm on Musk statement assumption since he is just doing a projection based on the current market situation. US can’t control inflation despite there plan to increase the value of dollar.

Slowing down on investment is the best thing to do if you have doubts or uncertain on the market. You will not lose if you didn’t ride on the market gain but you will lose if you invest recklessly on uncertain market. I will choose the abstaining just to make sure I have enough funds to cover my personal expenses just incase recession last longer as expected.

There will be food shortages because of these. The World Health Organization (WHO) recently issued a warning that food shortages are coming towards the end of 2022 and into 2023, WIBX950 reported.. 50 million people from 45 countries will be affected. Unemployment problem. Many countries could be bankrupt due to overwhelming debt. Already raising political tension could worsen over time.

But the main concern should be how average joe can prepare themselves to overcome this situation. I hope there won't be another world war that could cause the death of millions.

If you intend to build your investment plan according to the opinions of Elon Musk or any businessman, your plan will most likely fail because they say what corresponds to their economic profits.
Recession expectations have become certain, but the questions are whether it will be a controlled recession and therefore individuals will not be affected, or will it be very chaotic, causing bankruptcy for many and stopping exports.
In general, if the recession continues for a year or a year and a half, it will be controlled.

The average gap between major recessions has been 8 years, technically you might call the short sharp drop at the start of Covid a recession, but it was more like a correction that we get every 2-3 years. It is part of the natural boom and bust economic cycle of market economies - there is no getting away from it based on historical evidence. In the boom times people borrow a lot, spend a lot and the times are wild. In the bust times, people are paying back debt until the banks generally get in a place where they are more comfortable lending again and the good times pick up cautiously again. Ignoring this or trying to tame it is a task of futility, so better to just take advantage of opportunities whenever they appear.

1- Elon Musk is not an authority on the global economy. His opinion does not mean much here.
2- "I cannot see any increase in salaries" - wrong
3- "I think that the problem is global - and not specific to my country" - sure its global. Its hard to find a country that is not affected
4- "The crypto market is not going to recover if the economic situation is not going to be reversed" The market bottom is always weeks before the worst days right when there is the most bad news and it looks like its only going to be worse. So its possible that we already bottomed even though the macro looks terrible.
5- Its hard for assets to continue to go down if thing that they are evaluated in (fiats) is going down at a rate of 10% annually.

Over the past years we had faced an economic growth considering that interest rates had started reaching lows and people had started spending money.
The last months, possibly during summer 2022 and some months after Putin's invasion to Ukraine we experience a new recession, almost ten years after the previous one.

I think that the problem is global - and not specific to my country. Gas prices are soaring, prices for items for basic needs etc. toilet paper are increased by 25-30% and bread, milk eggs and food in general are higher in price for almost 40%.

On the other hand, I cannot see any increase in salaries and see that we are in a stable economic situation. Having said that, the purchasing power of consumers is decreased, and inflation keeps increasing in rates.

Elon Musk said in an interview that this situation is going to continue till Spring 2024.

This painful situation has a major impact to all aspects, even cryptocurrencies. The crypto market is not going to recover if the economic situation is not going to be reversed. This stems from the fact that neither investor not crypto startups will take the risk to invest money right now.

If Musk is true, we are going to see only the strong ones survive during those two years...