We are in a bubble but it will peak at $4000-$5000

ktabb

full member

Activity: 266

Merit: 103

Quote from: DustyRah on May 24, 2017, 08:12:26 PM

NO ONE knows where this is going! To try to predict Bitcoin is foolish. What is not foolish is to take profits regularly and buy back in. A separate batch of HODL for retirement would be mighty fine!

That's not true at all. In fact, I would argue that bitcoin price is more predictable than most other assets. It is hard to predict the future price of, for example, a company, because it is dependent on earnings reports and company performance, which can be hard to predict if you don't have insider information about the company. Bitcoin, however, has no intrinsic value or standard mechanisms for determining a fair market value. This means that it is driven purely by investor psychology. As a result, it very nicely follows many commonly found technical patterns. The price is driven by group psychology. Sure, news events affect the price as well, but the price is more deeply tied to investor psychology than any fundamental value (which is in contrast with stock price movement).

DustyRah

sr. member

Activity: 533

Merit: 251

NO ONE knows where this is going! To try to predict Bitcoin is foolish. What is not foolish is to take profits regularly and buy back in. A separate batch of HODL for retirement would be mighty fine!

ktabb

full member

Activity: 266

Merit: 103

Quote from: pitham1 on May 24, 2017, 06:57:40 PM

Quote from: ktabb on May 24, 2017, 04:32:26 PM

Hey guys, I posted a pretty long and in-depth analysis of my view of the current state of bitcoin here:

In short, I think we are in entering a bubble but there is still room to run. Would love to hear if someone disagrees with the reasoning that I posted and why!

Also check out my bitcoin paper trading app! www.demoinvestor.com

EDIT:

It won't let me post the link properly for some reason. Here it is:

https://www.facebook.com/TBCPredictions/posts/881948598612117 copy and paste, switch the B and the T

If that indeed becomes true, the short-sellers are going to get squeezed badly. Grin

If the bubble does burst, I down think we will lose 80+% of the value like last time (From $1200 --> $200).
We will settle comfortably at $2000+ levels.

I think there are enough people anticipating a bubble crash as a buying opportunity that it might not fall quite by 80% like last time. I think peaking at $5000 and falling to ~$1500-$2000 would be a reasonable expectation.

pitham1

legendary

Activity: 1232

Merit: 1000

Quote from: ktabb on May 24, 2017, 04:32:26 PM

Hey guys, I posted a pretty long and in-depth analysis of my view of the current state of bitcoin here:

In short, I think we are in entering a bubble but there is still room to run. Would love to hear if someone disagrees with the reasoning that I posted and why!

Also check out my bitcoin paper trading app! www.demoinvestor.com

EDIT:

It won't let me post the link properly for some reason. Here it is:

https://www.facebook.com/TBCPredictions/posts/881948598612117 copy and paste, switch the B and the T

If that indeed becomes true, the short-sellers are going to get squeezed badly. Grin

If the bubble does burst, I down think we will lose 80+% of the value like last time (From $1200 --> $200).
We will settle comfortably at $2000+ levels.

ArdiPrabowo

hero member

Activity: 644

Merit: 500

i hope bitcoin price incraese only 2500 dollar
before incraese to 4000 - 5000 dollar, i hope problem blocksize is solver, blocksize incraese , use segwit or bitcoin unlimited

Creepings

sr. member

Activity: 546

Merit: 257

Quote from: BlackPanda on May 24, 2017, 05:03:02 PM

The current price has reached 2450USD. This is a remarkable price increase. We have reached to a wonder thing. Maybe 4000USD is a number that can be achieved in the next few months. And this will continue along with the development of bitcoin.

That is almost half of the normal price last month, it is really a remarkable price. But the thing is, we don't know what might happen, we are not sure if $4000 is the next price, but I think these year, it will be just playing around $3000 to $4000. I think it can't increase more than that unless something happen like ETF approval, said at the previous reply.

ktabb

full member

Activity: 266

Merit: 103

Quote from: noone000 on May 24, 2017, 04:55:50 PM

Quote from: ktabb on May 24, 2017, 04:32:26 PM

Hey guys, I posted a pretty long and in-depth analysis of my view of the current state of bitcoin here:

In short, I think we are in entering a bubble but there is still room to run. Would love to hear if someone disagrees with the reasoning that I posted and why!

Also check out my bitcoin paper trading app! www.demoinvestor.com

EDIT:

It won't let me post the link properly for some reason. Here it is:

https://www.facebook.com/TBCPredictions/posts/881948598612117 copy and paste, switch the B and the T

I took a look at your post and I thought your reasoning was fairly sound, although your estimate of a 4000 USD peak in price sounded like a complete guess. This rapid increase in the value of the bitcoin not only mimics the crash in 2013, but also the massive stock market crash of 1929. The value of stocks were soaring before this point, but once prices started to fall, a massive wave of selling occurred and prices plummeted, causing many people to lose everything. In the short-term at least I do not believe we will see a crash in the price because the demand for the BTC is continuously growing and I do not think most investors plan on selling all of their bitcoins anytime soon.

I wouldn't say that $4k is a COMPLETE guess but you are right that it is kind of a guesstimate. As I mentioned in the post, it is extremely difficult to predict the magnitude of a bubble. If it is in proportion with 2013 then it would go to around $7k-$8k, so I suppose all I can say with any amount of confidence is that I don't think it will exceed $8k before crashing down again. However, I do think that it will have trouble reaching a market cap that high unless maybe an ETF gets approved, allowing more investors to easily pour money into bitcoin.

cryptodontus

newbie

Activity: 37

Merit: 0

Quote from: noone000 on May 24, 2017, 04:55:50 PM

Quote from: ktabb on May 24, 2017, 04:32:26 PM

Hey guys, I posted a pretty long and in-depth analysis of my view of the current state of bitcoin here:

In short, I think we are in entering a bubble but there is still room to run. Would love to hear if someone disagrees with the reasoning that I posted and why!

Also check out my bitcoin paper trading app! www.demoinvestor.com

EDIT:

It won't let me post the link properly for some reason. Here it is:

https://www.facebook.com/TBCPredictions/posts/881948598612117 copy and paste, switch the B and the T

I took a look at your post and I thought your reasoning was fairly sound, although your estimate of a 4000 USD peak in price sounded like a complete guess. This rapid increase in the value of the bitcoin not only mimics the crash in 2013, but also the massive stock market crash of 1929. The value of stocks were soaring before this point, but once prices started to fall, a massive wave of selling occurred and prices plummeted, causing many people to lose everything. In the short-term at least I do not believe we will see a crash in the price because the demand for the BTC is continuously growing and I do not think most investors plan on selling all of their bitcoins anytime soon.

I think almost everyone that wants to sell, wants to do so in anticipation OF a bubble, so they can rebuy MORE BTC. This process counters the "bubble popping" phenomenon. I think we will repeat this false bubbling process a few times before blowing one big enough to actutally pop.

Unless we can all summon the powers of kwukduck and convince enough people to panic sell . . . But it would take a FUD campaign of epic proportions. We'd need translators in 50 different languages!

BlackPanda

legendary

Activity: 1414

Merit: 1001

The current price has reached 2450USD. This is a remarkable price increase. We have reached to a wonder thing. Maybe 4000USD is a number that can be achieved in the next few months. And this will continue along with the development of bitcoin.

noone000

full member

Activity: 160

Merit: 100

Quote from: ktabb on May 24, 2017, 04:32:26 PM

Hey guys, I posted a pretty long and in-depth analysis of my view of the current state of bitcoin here:

In short, I think we are in entering a bubble but there is still room to run. Would love to hear if someone disagrees with the reasoning that I posted and why!

Also check out my bitcoin paper trading app! www.demoinvestor.com

EDIT:

It won't let me post the link properly for some reason. Here it is:

https://www.facebook.com/TBCPredictions/posts/881948598612117 copy and paste, switch the B and the T

I took a look at your post and I thought your reasoning was fairly sound, although your estimate of a 4000 USD peak in price sounded like a complete guess. This rapid increase in the value of the bitcoin not only mimics the crash in 2013, but also the massive stock market crash of 1929. The value of stocks were soaring before this point, but once prices started to fall, a massive wave of selling occurred and prices plummeted, causing many people to lose everything. In the short-term at least I do not believe we will see a crash in the price because the demand for the BTC is continuously growing and I do not think most investors plan on selling all of their bitcoins anytime soon.

ktabb

full member

Activity: 266

Merit: 103

Hey guys, I posted a pretty long and in-depth analysis of my view of the current state of bitcoin here:

In short, I think we are in entering a bubble but there is still room to run. Would love to hear if someone disagrees with the reasoning that I posted and why!

Also check out my bitcoin paper trading app! www.demoinvestor.com

EDIT:

It won't let me post the link properly for some reason. Here it is:

https://www.facebook.com/TBCPredictions/posts/881948598612117 copy and paste, switch the B and the T

Topic: We are in a bubble but it will peak at $4000-$5000 (Read 746 times)