Topic: We are not out of the woods yet (Read 522 times)

Well, it's true that everyday becomes a new day full of hope when it comes to crypto, since we always witness history repeating itself and it goes to show how much potential crypto has. Without a doubt it'll already be a part of history that crypto survived a pandemic. We also don't know how long this dry spell would last but I believe it wont last that long... "MAYBE"I am also no expert so I couldn't predict or give an analysis of how long it'll last.

External factors are already one of the factors that affects the growth of the economy, although crypto looks like an independent market, we still couldn't deny the fact that it is still affected by those economic pressure we are in. I know most of us are hoping for a positive movement from crypto this year, but I think without an event that could hugely influence the economy involving bitcoin it would be a long way for us to see either positive or negative changes. Again I am no expert and I could only tell this by a consumer's point of view.

Even if right now it seems that there is nothing which can stop bitcoin as its growth during the last weeks has been impressive, bitcoin can still be affected by events external to it, and a very good example of this was the pandemic, in which we saw a massive crash at the early stages, and with the war at Ukraine getting even worse it would not surprise me if this had an effect on the economy of the world during the next months, and such an event will affect bitcoin too.

We are in a world if uncertainty and certainly anything can happen at anytime especially in a world with drastic environmental degradation.
Stop think and start thinking because this is reality and no one can actually predict accurately what the outcome of the next day would be because even the researchers you mentioned only say things based on analysis and assumption without certainty.
It is also true that people who bought the dip are smiling by now but that's not even enough reason to say this year will be better because we're just starting the year and I also know of people who are already in deep mess at the start of the year and will you also say same for such persons? I guess no but optimism is the only hope we have now and we pray we have a favourable year this year and hope to get out of the hood too.

  Muahaha the biggest mistake. You realize that's wishful thinking, right? Bitcoin doesn't give a damn about your hopes/expectations/plans. It's like me saying: I predict ATH in March 2023, because I want to sell @$100k! That's ridiculous! 

I don't think what happened in 2019 will repeat itself again in this year or next year because, it was a bad experience to the word economy which nobody wish to see it again . There are many researchers that came up early this year that this year and next year will be a better year for all crypto investors which many crypto investors are experiencing it already in the crypto market. I believe what we experienced last year will not happen in this 2023, because if it happen many will give up on crypto but I believe such long bear market will not happen this year.

Bitcoin has been recovering at an amazing speed but at the same time I think this is the reason so many people are still on the fence about this recovery, I mean the bear market was so long and intense that it is difficult to believe that is over just like that, which explains the no small number of traders which believe this is some sort of trap and that the price of bitcoin will go below 20k again, maybe they are wrong but it is understandable they still hold doubts about this recovery.

Yeah, the history may repeat itself and just be prepared whatever is yet to come. But, it could possibly be that the toughest bear was already done last year. We're just a year for the next halving and you can assume whatever you want but it's best to think about the most positive things to happen but not settling that it's already there. Anyway, if there's the certain thing about bitcoin and the entire crypto market, its volatility is making everything as usual unpredictable. I see a lot of people telling that $10k-$13k may be the bottom this time, let's see if those predictions will become real.

At around 23k right now, I have to say that there is a good chance we are getting out of the woods for sure. Don't expect it to be a child play, its going to take a while before we could end up with getting to 30k+ range, but haven't we shown a bit of glimpse of increases already? From 17k to 19k and then 19k to 21k and then 21k to 23k. That is like 2k increase every 3-5 days, and if it keeps up it, then in 2-3 weeks we are possibly at 30k with this increase. I am guessing its not going to be the same timing again and again, but I do believe that its going to happen, and 2023 will definitely end up with a good increase for sure.

Not all times the analysis is correct but people still keep on doing it. They think it's better than just predicting randomly. We need to be careful because we do not know what's coming ahead. By careful, it means we shouldn't buy quickly thinking that the recovery will continue because what if it dumps right after we buy? Panicking is bad but I don't think there are people who are doing it right now.

The market now is different from what we had last year where the dump seems not going to an end. People are calm now and waiting for more increases before they sell their bags. Losing money isn't fun so don't just say that we all must enjoy. This isn't the same as playing gambling inside a casino.

Being cautious is good to a certain extend, but if we worry to much about all the things that could go wrong then we might miss out completely on the next big trend. It's still another year for the next halving, and it's true that many things could happen until then. The real question is if you expect crypto prices to drop much lower if something bad in the world happens again. In my opinion we are not going to see prices much lower than the 16,000 USD level. Who ever bought bitcoins in the last few years will be very happy by the end of 2024. I would rather stay invested and face the risk of short term price drops, then selling all my position and be at risk of missing out on the next big rally.

If you didn't know already, in crypto-land you are never "out of the woods". Last year should have been a wake-up call for anyone believing otherwise.
There is ALWAYS the chance of a massive black-swan-event lurking, prices can dump 20%+ over night if the circumstances are "right".

That being said, if you wonder what's going on with the recent tiny uptrend for Bitcoin, have a look at contrarian indicators - just before BTC climbed up from its 16k depths the general sentiment was as bad as almost never seen before for Bitcoin. - Check out PlanB and related analists for more info. https://dailyhodl.com/2022/11/24/quant-analyst-planb-says-bitcoin-btc-on-track-to-explode-by-over-500-heres-the-timeline/

This is how the market moves. It is all about upward trend and downward which had been part of the market patten that constitute the behavior of the market. Bitcoin will always fall and rise whether we like it or not.
One thing I had understand about the market is that, people are mostly interested about the upward trend and forget that there is a time when the bear will take over. We can't have the bull market without having the bear market, everything works along the same so we need to be a smart trader to be ready to endure this season for a better one.

Yes, it's still uncertain what will happen next. If you just bought a few weeks ago, you are on the green side. It's a small price jump when you compare it to ATH price. If you zoom out the chart, the price gap is huge. After the bear hit, people were expecting for bitcoin to get stable at $25k, but it went down more. We haven't reached the $25k yet after this price pump. So we are still in the red zone, despite being in the green for several weeks. It will be very interesting to know if this is an indication towards bull run or is this another bull trap.

There are always people that losing faith and hope in cryptocurrency because of some reasons such as losing money, some of the coins that they invest are dumped and etc. Losing in investment is pretty normal but the way people manage these losses are different so there will be someone just survive with this bear market but many are giving up and try another chance.

But, at that point the price surprisingly increasing for a moment.

I think when you make an analysis, you do not really make something that would be great, you are making something that would be troublesome in the long run if you think that only your analysis worths something and the others do not. I have to deal with the fact that it is going to be a horrible deal that needs to be done in a way where you just need to realize what you see is something only you see and not everyone sees.

If you think that you figured something out before anyone else then it would become a trouble for sure. That's why I can't really make a guess on anything that would be in crypto prices future, maybe I am right, or maybe I am just looking at it wrong.

If I'm being honest the last week's price of bitcoin is a little insignificant for me, as I believe that the bear market is still far from over despite what other analysts and people may think or predict. Bitcoin and the crypto market is cyclical, and it follows a pattern, in the times that it didn't, it's because there was a huge paradigm shift that happened, prompting people to go bullish on buying cryptocurrencies and bitcoin as a result. This is no different, in fact, the next halving wouldn't happen til sometime next year, so if you'll ask me, unless something major is to happen within this year, I wouldn't put my hopes up on bitcoin entering a bullish season within this year.

Even after the halving, we will not feel the effect of it right away. It will still take some time, maybe months or more than a year before we feel the effect of it. And anything is possible between now and that time. I think, in the past, we experience a sudden drop in the price even after the halving. Price crashes can happen anytime.

Well, we can't be so sure of what the price will be in the next few weeks despite how quick the rise of BTC since last week and this week. Like OP said we are yet not out of the woods, there could be challenges ahead since the bankruptcy of other big crypto groups had been in the news over and over.

Who knows what could happen? The market can just crash and spike for a simple reason. But one certain fact is known to us, Halving is in 2024. Right now is still 2023.

That is my prediction, and I am expecting bitcoin to drop and fall further. Many people are expecting bitcoins to rise again because they bought bitcoins at a high price or they have accumulated enough of their bitcoins. But I still want to buy bitcoin cheaply, so I expect it to drop more, and in the current economic situation, I really hope my prediction is correct.

Does the analysis always determine? Apart from whatever we analyze this analysis will only find speculation which is probably only 2, namely true and not.
Even though the word careful is important, but we also cannot really give a statement that this will happen because regardless of anything even though caution must be maintained but we also do not need to panic ourselves with the current conditions.
Just enjoy the plot that is there, we are here not a short time and of course we know what to do in this condition.

It is important to remain cautious, bitcoin is now trading at a price above 22k and while this is encouraging at the same time it is kind of worrying, the price is growing so quickly that it would not surprise me that once a negative news emerge then an important correction could happen, however this correction is never going to be as intense to allow us to reach a new all time low as that will basically mean that people have lost all confidence in bitcoin at that point.

They are only thinking on negative side and also they are very emotional that is why they bail out but again I do respect their choice but for sure when the bitcoin starting to rise they will be buying again or regretting not to buy and sold their bitcoin earlier. If you have experience in holding bitcoin or if you are already in bitcoin since 2016 you've already know that this already happen before even if that price of bitcoin before was too low. There are really red days that is other holders will stay away and forgot their bitcoin that time so that they will not be tempted to sell it.

When the pandemic hit, not only the crypto market but the entire financial industry stood up and boomed because the government pumped a lot of money to save the economy at that time. In my opinion, the economy during the pandemic is not so bad compared to what happened in 2022. 2022 is really a bad year for the world economy and bitcoin because of the consequences of the pandemic and made worse when the war between Russia and Ukraine disrupted the supply and demand system of the world market.

The problem with current government policy and central bank status on QE is to create volatility.  Inflation is not growth, its often mislabeled and described as such much to the determent of the common worker who suffers increasingly lower value wages even nominally higher.
   The point I would make is economies are damaged by reaching both extremes of inflation and recession, we have price instability impeding business causing problems with order flows and investment returns etc.

Nothing is impossible in the crypto space. Most times it is somehow unpredictable. No one knows the bottom of any crypto. We may say it may still go down and it may not. So let's just keep looking at how the market will be and if any newbie is buying, he/she should buy using DCA.

They give up because they can't stand the pressure brought by the bearish market, where in fact bearish market could be a source of opportunities to gain future profits. However, at the end of the day, bearish market won't stay for good as we will always have to witness its counter cycle which is its bullish market. So everyone is free to think what will be the market situation in the next months and years, but rest assured it won't only be bearish but it will also turn bullish in time.

It's like your personal subjective opinion. We were denied a proper top last cycle, second top and ATH happened early. So, methinks it's now time for the bears to be disappointed.  We'll reverse and the bears will be left out without a proper bottom. They will be panic buying at $30k or higher. 

I don't know if you can provide me with those analysis that shows that the OP is correct?
Am not celebrating that the bear market is over, but nobody knows when the bear market will be over, don't be suprise when you see bitcoin price going up gradually. I think you and the OP shouldn't buy bitcoin yet, keep on waiting for more bear before you buy, must people are expecting bull run by 2024, but don't be suprise if you see bull run before 2024. Most people have missed opportunities because they are always waiting for bitcoin to dump more before buying.

There are analysis that can support the statement of OP, and I’m sure as well that the market is still on bear market, too early to celebrate but its better to be safe than to be sorry later on. Just keep watching the price trend of Bitcoin because if it touch the support level again and breaks it, probably down trend will be the next trend and panicking will become active again so there’s no safe trend yet.

There are even longer than that they are still calm without saying they give up lol.
I think regardless of whenever we are here the word surrender is still the same, it only applies to people who are indeed too ambitious from the start.
We know about risks like this, we are also aware that conditions like this will always exist but why should we give up halfway? don't you feel that this is just a waste of your time when you give up in conditions like this.
If something like that really has to happen, you shouldn't be in this kind of scope from the start if you really can't enjoy the process.

How sure are you that the bear is not over? How sure are you that the bull run won't start soon? In crypto space anything can happen, nobody knows maybe the new all time low have being hit, am sure if newbies see your post, they might endup panicking and selling their bitcoin, even the once that are planning to hold for long term will sell and be waiting to buy at lower price which you just said. Anything is possible, bitcoin might dump more and bitcoin might start pumping, if you think Bitcoin will dump more, then sell your bitcoin and wait for it to dump before buying.

Yeah crazy things are happening now and then in the world while we were seeing nice and cozy up growth of the crypto world, everything bottomed due to few unwanted events in the  history. I dont know how did it happen, but it proved that crypto and real world spaces are interlocked with each other and they are highly moving now and then as we see some vital events happening. We know very well how crypto boomed in very short period of time. However, it is so curious to see that bitcoin / alts stood positively even during the pandemic when miners were at risk of getting shut off completely.
Definitely worth keeping ourselves prepared with updated plans of investment and leave rest of the stuff on market.

I'm also wondering how you can determine for yourself about the fall in Bitcoin to a certain level at the moment which is even the opposite of what is happening in the market at the moment. And logically when there are many people who believe in Bitcoin not to fall again, automatically some people will also make purchases on Bitcoin and will not just sit idly by and see Bitcoin in the market. So what you say doesn't make much sense to me at this point.

It is really a test of faith or something that would really test your patience specially on long bearish market which it would really be giving out some doubts into a particular point which you would really be needing to resist no matter what.We all for sure had able to experience this particular time or moment in regard to our investment on which we are really that tempted to sell out and having those thoughts that this situation might gets longer and you would decide to sell on loss.This is why not all would really be that ending up on holding their positions but rather selling because they had panicked out.
This is where it would result out if you arent that serious with your crypto investment.

Having this type of uncertain situations in the market is definitely good for the people who are long term in this. I do not just buy crypto, my crypto buys crypto at this point, because I stake as well and the returns are minimal but they are good for me. Which means, I end up with both buying bitcoin which increases the value of my portfolio, but I also use the staking rewards to end up buying more stuff as well and the portfolio rises yet again. Thats the end goal, let your money work for you instead of you working for money. If you can somehow achieve that, which takes a long time if you start very little, then you are going to end up with never working again, thanks to your money making you more money.

Oh yeah the 2019? Was that the time that Bitcoin went down below 5k, if I can recall correctly?

It did not bother me though since I was already all-in to Bitcoin at that point and buying would be like a beneficial thing to do instead of the opposite. There would be always times like these and that's a good thing sometimes. If the money you used for crypto are worth losing anyway so why get bothered? I don't spend my time worrying too much about how Bitcoin will rise or fall in the next coming month. Don't want those overnight thoughts that would keep me overnight.

If you have the faith in bitcoin and you know it will never disappoint you in the long run, obviously you will continue to take the risk and hold it even if there are big crashes that will happen in the market. Because the bearish market is also part of the cycle, then we can’t expect that crypto market is not just all about bullish season and making profits, it’s also a time of testing your faith and mostly lose in the making so you will know if you can still survive in a bear market or you’ll just end up quitting and lose everything you have started.

Yeah basically it's possible it could happen but honestly I wish for Bitcoin it didn't happen,
the market is also still not completely stable and difficult to predict,
for now the price of Bitcoin has not shown signs of going down again.

Nothing is impossible, in the context of the world economy is still struggling, it is possible for bitcoin to continue to be impacted and fall more than is possible. When many believe that a bottom has been formed and bitcoin will never fall again, that is when bitcoin will fall. I still believe we haven't bottomed yet, bitcoin will drop below $15k.

So true, i see a lot of people celebrating an end of bear run. But this definitely isn't an end. Infact I won't say anything is an end until we reach 20% near the recent all time high that we have. You see market will not behave the same way because big whales know they can't be predictable for retailers so ideally they will always try to make things uncertain give you fake hints. I am expecting this time bear run can stay for a longer period of time because of a lot of accumulation is required to make btc 100k.

Maybe it should be considered, the storm doesn't end here, but if we keep thinking about the storm it makes us afraid to enter the market and of course we will be really afraid, therefore it is important for us to manage investment in crypto, the strategy that is made possible should take a safe entry into the market, such as DCA or buying when a downturn due to a storm occurs.
Maybe people who invest long-term with DCA are waiting for the stormy moment to come again, especially those who haven't jumped at the bottom in December.

Anything can happen, for the good and for the bad of Bitcoin on the following years, so a new bottom isn't a sure thing, after all. We don't know what the next fluctuations are going to be. All we can see is that 2023 has been being a year of recovery for BTC on these initial weeks, boosting positive sentiment among investors.

On the other hand, if Bitcoin falls again soon, let's see this as an opportunity for more investors start their investments in cryptocurrencies for an affordable cost.

But that makes them "beginners". Being prone to FUDs, misconceptions and such. Well that is a part of the learning process. They won't know the do's and don'ts if they won't experience it. Giving them a tip would help but for sure they won't understand it at first. Experience teaches stronger. Guidance from those who are quite long would help them minimize prior mistakes. On the other hand, FUDs a bit hard to conquer if you're just new in this industry; where would you base facts if lmost everything in this industry is opinionated such as with possible trend, when to sell or buy and the likes. Spoonfeeding also won't be a help, I guess, based on experience. It took me another year to fully understand this blockchain 'coz I was spoiled by my friends who got here early.

Again we have to mention the four year cycle and that is why bitcoin is considered a fluctuating asset, holders who understand the nature of bitcoin will not suffer from the panic you describe, because they know the law of supply and demand has something to do with the course of bitcoin, despite many other events also affects the occurrence of Bullish and Bearish.

To date I have yet to find the number of percentages of people who have lost hope of the bitcoin journey. Strong holders are those who continue to buy and stay long term, the percentage you are referring to represents only a small number of people who do not understand cycles and have not been deeply involved in bitcoin investing in recent years.

There are always cycles that affect the journey of bitcoin, however volatile and chaos caused by anything will end, 2021 is a major catastrophic impact around the world, recession and inflation occur in almost all countries. Yet bitcoin continued to show consistency and survive the turmoil until it reached ATH, the power to compare bitcoin amidst recession and inflation is sufficiently described in 2021.

Yes, for beginners, maybe they should first feel the benefits if they hold bitcoin even in a bear market like this. I'm sure they will be able to do it, but the doubts that come to them are also because there is a lot of FUD circulating when a bear market occurs, so they have to get guidance from people who are already in the bitcoin space, or in other words they have to be guided by people with experience . Here, in this room, they will learn a lot from their seniors and share what has happened in the past. I wish they could just ignore all the FUD aimed at bitcoin.

Pumps and dumps are actually normal in the financial market. It shows that the market is healthy. If the movement is only in one direction, don't ya think we can buy effectively or sell for profits? No right. An economy outside can suffer but I don't think it's a good thing. It won't be like that if there is nothing wrong with our government.

A bad economy will also have a bad effect to the people. There will be less jobs and then the price of the goods can also rise. People will now have a hard time to buy a crypto. But indeed that being knowledgeable and flexible in times like this is helpful, as we can easily find a way on how to overcome it.

We still have a long way to go, the financial market could collapse and price of goods and commodity start dropping and there's every possibility that this will affect all markets including that of cryptocurrency. In 2020 the pandemic cause a panicking in the whole market and nobody knows what 2023 will bring but I'm positive it won't cause much hazard in the cryptocurency market.

We had a worst year in 2022 and now the market has started recovering with some altcoins giving good profits in the last 7 days. Bitcoin hasn't given much profits yet so there's nothing to be scared about in regards to a correction. I think we might keep moving upwards towards the $25k price before any major type of correction is been recorded.

I agree with you because we have seen the potential benefits of bitcoin, so we must be able to continue to hold bitcoin with a strong hand. That's all we can do so we can participate in the next ATH and get big profits. And even though it looks very difficult and heavy, we must believe that we can do it. After all, many of us have been through this 5-10 years ago so actually, this is not a big problem for us.

And beginners should try it and not give up because prizes await them. We shouldn't be afraid of a bear market like it is today, and it is precise with this bear market that we can get the opportunity to buy bitcoin at a low price.

Experienced long-term holders should have a plan of what they should do when the market becomes as bearish as it is today. They will use this time to invest a lot of money, and there is a possibility that they will only choose bitcoin as their biggest investment, considering the potential profit they will get from bitcoin is very large. And as long as we can hold bitcoin and stay afloat, we will be able to see that bear market changing to a bull market.

In any business, one should expect a bad moment where the business will turn upsidedown. Same thing happens with crypto. Any one that quit crypto because of the best movement isn't a good entrepreneur.


Life is a mixture of good and bad, you can't expect good always. So bearish season shouldn't be a new thing. It's a season to test how strong we are. Those that endure and wait will be full with joy after the bearish season.

I agree, though there is a Bitcoin recovery, I believe this is just a relief, a higher low that can be shaken anytime.  Worst this can be a bull trap that will incur severe losses for those who have been trapped.  So I guess it is still too early to celebrate and welcome the not coming very soon bull market.  We should stay observant and see the next Bitcoin price movement.  Better if we keep accumulating in preparation for the next ATH,

Clearly bitcoin is still struggling on its own price and we won’t expect for a price surge as the market stays bearish up to these days. That is why bitcoin accumulation is still a good thing these days since we can’t expect fast reversal seeing that there are still no new positive updates that hit the market. If there are any, those were also insignificant to the market.

I wouldn't be so sure. IMHO we have already seen the bottom this cycle. We are not going any lower. Down from $69k to $16k doesn't feel enough pain for you? How much is that? 78% down? 

The key on here is to have that patience because if you do lack of this thing then you would really be finding out yourself on committing out impulsive decisions which is something not that really needed or something
you should really avoid when you are really that making crypto investment.We dont know on how long bearish market turns out to be bullish and if you are that someone who are really that impatient then you would totally be committing out some errors and mistakes which would really be doing along  the way.The key for you to survive this unpredictable market is to have patience plus having the
idea on when and where to take up your position specially when seeing an opportunity.

Long term holders should always have a strong mindset  and that they should not easily quit whenever the market stays bearish for long. That is why investing in crypto takes a lot of time gaining knowledge because if you only invest for profits, you will never survive in crypto market knowing how uncertain it is. Today might be bearish, and it could also happen next month or next year. That’s how uncertain the market is so it’s better to be always prepared so you can still survive whether the market gets bearish or bullish in time.

There is no giving up to continue to hold bitcoin even in the worst conditions. That's what I always keep in my mind about this bitcoin. I firmly believe we will be seeing new ATHs again in the future, and it is time for us to continue collecting bitcoins with the money we have put aside for it.
It will be different for beginners, yes of course they are scared because they lack experience in dealing with a bear market like this, it is our job to provide motivation and tell stories about events in the past that are almost the same as now and show how bitcoin can recover from bear times like this .

This forum thread belongs to the Speculations forum, since you are starting a discussion, that isn't closely related to Economics.
You know the saying "Weak hands always lose", when it comes to the Bitcoin market. It doesn't have to be that way all the time.
If you(and some of the BTC HODLers) are too afraid to HODL in a bear market, just sell your BTC for fiat or stablecoins and wait for the BTC price to drop even further. When you see bullish signals, just start buying BTC. This isn't rocket science.
There's no need to HODL all your Bitcoins during the entire bear season.

The strongest crypto holders out there have not given up and will not give up because they have been through the worst in the past. Until now, they can still survive, accumulate bitcoins and some potential altcoins, and wait for market reversal. They still believe that the crypto market will return to provide big profits for them so that they are still able to survive.

And even though the negative waves will still come, they will persist in achieving their goals, and so will we, who will continue to survive. Perhaps, this year or next is a good one for crypto, so we can see the market recover.

Next few weeks should decide in what direction Bitcoin will go , but for now , we are still in a full bear market and the trap has been set with Bitcoin hitting 20k$ again. It could be an accumulate phase , which I kinda doubt to be honest , as the volume is still low , or it could be a distribution phase and then another drop in price because we can see clearly that Bitcoin for now cannot surpass the 20k$ range.

Do you know any crypto holders out there who have given up? Because I never even cared for anyone who has given up on crypto for some reason. Yes, 2019 is the time for all cryptocurrencies to start to rise from the downturn that occurred in the year before 2019 and people who have bought any crypto at that time must have felt extraordinary profits in 2021. So why do you think about people who have given up now ?

If you feel afraid and believe more in losing hope or something like that, you better not approach any crypto anymore because basically all crypto has risks and it is not borne by anyone but only yourself. So if you are afraid when you are in crypto, then get out of the crypto space because crypto never closes its doors to people who come and also people who go.

I also don't really believe in what you are saying because it is still better to believe in yourself than to believe in other people's words. And you don't need to be afraid of this because there's nothing stopping you from making a decision and going to another place that might be more fun and make you more confident.

No ones knows the exact possibilities of things happening in the nearest future about bitcoin price if it has attained the ATL already or there's still possible dips more coming, but one thing is for sure which is the certainty that bitcoin will never go down to zero no matter the low, as we are getting closer to the halving it's a sign that we are approaching a season with high volatility whereby the price can suddenly rises and the same way go dip but there's also the certainty for ATH as we proceeds towards 2024, if you're buying then use a DCA purchasing pattern to avoid or cut losses and never loose hope for a positive outcome in due time.

The mini-bull season has brought a lot of hope and confidence to the bitcoin ecosystem. At least some investors have been able to recover losses and others made some profit. But like you said all might not be well now or we are not out of the woods yet. But one thing is sure: bitcoin would survive these trying times and the bull market would soon emerge. But for now it is important to be patient.

True. Bear market will determine who are here to stay and who’s only here when it’s bull run and leave when the market turns bearish. So the survival rate is really intense these days. Those who know the market well will win and become profitable, but for those who’s up for quick profits only, they will eventually quit and leave the market at a loss.

I think on some level bitcoin has come to symbolize concepts like "financial freedom" and "be your own bank". It may have changed the way that people think of and view money. Opened peoples minds as to how economies and financial institutions might be structured differently. To elevate standard of living, granting consumers more options and opportunities in life. As well as boosting perception of what the term financial freedom could mean in the future.

This could represent the evolution of humanity. In terms of our concepts and ideas about what is possible for us and how the world works adapting, progressing and evolving over time. While we might have bitcoin to represent certain ideology and ideas. We may not yet have reached the final form.

If fiat currency is a horse driven wagon. Bitcoin might be the modern automobile. Could that be an accurate analogy?

It is possible that as long as people support and believe in finding better ways to conduct business and better methods to live their lives, there will always be things like bitcoin being developed. It may simply be the natural evolution of things. While it may be discouraged. Stalled. Or perhaps even appear to be wiped out at times. There could always be someone who will find a way to invent a better mousetrap. At which time, people will have to decide whether they want to use the new and better way of doing things. Or revert to using past methods, which are not as good within a regressive trend.

With this bearish market at the moment, those who have experienced it in past has greater advantage compared to these new investors in the market. For sure, a lot would be selling at the current price and might lost their position to be more profitable in the future. But for those who have been in the market for long, they know already that there is more to this, and that bearish market is still far to end, so they end up become wiser in filling their portfolio with cheap bitcoins and only sell them when they are in profits in the future.

Are you thinking that this current Bitcoin uptrend is a bull trap?  I also think that it is early for Bitcoin market to rally and reverse the trend but you know, this is cryptocurrency market, everything is possible, even breaking ATH (though very unlikely) may happen this year.


the thing is can the market sustain the price trend?  If they failed to maintain it, it is like possible that the price will start to correct thus we may see Bitcoin price to fallback.  Aside from that, if this movement is a bull trap, it will take away lots of confidence in the market making or creating a possible sell off that may push the price of Bitcoin down.  So far there is really no good news to make a hype on Bitcoin market.  The latest we had is the CPI, and the explanation of short liquidation which might end any time soon.

What point are you talking about exactly and what data do you use to arrive at this conclusion that we are not out of the bear market yet, are you just speaking based on the last 24 hours' market condition which BTC deline with a 1.24% of it 48 hours market price.

In as much as it is hard or almost impossible to speculate the market, we should not fail to employ every available data to help us arrive at a level conclusion devoid of just speculation but accompanied with facts and variable chat data, this period is far different from 2019 judging from both year chart and available data.

I can tell you very much that, one of the first things I did after reading the OP and seeing uses rank was to look out for the date of  registration. Although that doesn't really say when you got involved in cryptocurrency as OP could have been in the innovation way longer but, speaking of 2019 and bearish market...! I was stunned even more. That's because, I was around in 2019 although much later but, this is definitely my first bear season.

History has it that, 2017 was the year that came with the bears, ravaging the crypto space with investors having to lose faith but experience tells investors to stick around.
Yeah, it's not funny I the bears and looking at the charts now to see some pumps, it's not enough to say we are done with the bears yet. We are still very much in the bears but, we just might have hit the ock bottom for the bearish season already.

I know that it do sucks when you are really that optimistic but turns out to be a hater in the end of the line just because the bear market hits you hard and if it did really blown up your investment wayback then you would really be having this kind of impression and thinking that bear and dumps is really just lurking in the corner.Its not bad to have that kind of doubt and hesitance but these things would really stop you on
getting in on potential opportunities which you might that encounter along the way which means that it wont really be that ideal to stick into that mindset.
Long bearish market could exist but we know that recovery and bull run is still there.

There’s no perfect market, there’s always a pump and dump and yes even the economy can suffer too, what you can do is to be more flexible and equip yourself the right knowledge so you can know when to invest and take advantage of the market. Bear is a good opportunity, only those who are willing to take the risk can make it, that is actually the survival phase where not everyone will stay.

What makes you think this hasn't happened yet. We were supposed to stop at the last ath of 20k, but we went much lower to the 15k, which flushed out most people and made us go back to 2019 prices.
Why do you think long time holders weren't hurt by this? We had a large move of coins held by over 5 years when FTX went bust. The data is available if you look for it.

IMO this took place at least twice in 2022. The first big wave was when we broke below 30k because of Luna. You can see that the volume back then was the highest since the time when we fell to 30k for the first time in May 2021. Each time there's big volume of sales you know there was a capitulation event taking place.


You remind me of the people who were calling for 1k Bitcoin from the beginning of the 2018 bear market and they were so sure that this 1k will come that they never bought bitcoin.
We don't know what's going to happen but you're saying this like you're sure that bitcoin will go below 15k when you cannot possibly be sure of something like that.
If you're sure, why don't you short bitcoin right now? It should be an easy trade for someone as confident as you.

It's a bit confusing you're just now talking about a bear market when Bitcoin is facing the largest rally for the last 3 months. Who knows which way it will go, but people who bought at 16k are almost 25% up on their investment if they were to cash out now, it's hard to find that sort of return in such a short time frame. It just depends if it holds steady, but we're generally seeing what might turn out to be a softer landing than expected for the economy and maybe it'll rebound faster than the so-called experts predicted. Bitcoin did very well in periods where borrowing costs were low, so if it can sustain while inflation drops back down and borrowing costs reduce then we might see another rally again.

People are free to think what they like, even the great crypto analysts like PlanB can sometimes be wrong. And the funny thing about people in crypto is that, when the price is up, they as why, when it goes down they still ask why.
So when you see some people claiming to give up on crypto doesn't mean they actually give up lol.
Bear market brings buying opportunities if you don't know.

This is what most of those skeptical about of Bitcoin growth's reaction. They would surely tell that Bitcoin is a bubble or dead but if you look at all on the chart this is so typical for them to react that way as if they really expect that Bitcoin would die and end up as scam as what the other people been thinking but never know a damn thing about Bitcoin.

This sudden small pump isn't enough to tell we are out of the bearish trend yet, there's always that someone would set a trap to remove weak-hands that can't hodl their coins for a long time because they think they are at complete loss if they don't sell their investment. A typical newbies reaction that are too afraid to lose investment in Bitcoin, so they have to sell after seeing the price dump.

If it is like 2019, I think it will be a great season and it will help a ton. I am not saying that its going to be just smooth sailing from here on out or anything like that, but its not going to be that much of a trouble neither. All in all, its obvious that we are going to end up with a good result when the year ends, I bet that its going to be a 20k+ year and that's for sure, but I am not saying that its going to be an easy year, its going to definitely hurt a bit but then we are going to be profitable if we bought now, the middle period will be the trouble but it will definitely finish as strong as possible.

I'm expecting one as well, but as with all the past "super crashes", it will be deep, it will be severe... but it will also be swiftly followed by a rebound that sets the floor and foundation for recovery into the next post-halving rally.

Terra and FTX were scapegoats, for sure, and almost none of my circle (albeit small and not personal, I see as significant) was affected.

When we've got forum friends and people we know impacted by an event, that'll be it.

Pretty sure folks that bought a few weeks ago would have already sold some of their stash in hopes that this recent climb to $21k would go back down sub $20k again. Also, I think most of the people who have been in the bitcoin game for years know that a few thousand increase in price in such a short span of time isn't something really worth celebrating. It is something, yes, but we have seen this countless of times before, and those who didn't learn from the previous runs will surely have a lot of things going for them.

The storm isn’t clear just yet and almost every experience investor know this. The bear market this days ain’t that painful like the years before 2020 because almost every investor have plans forehand to survive in the bear markets this days.

Although I expect another bearish period before the 2024 halving which is predicted to be a cause for a bull run, your prediction of bitcoin hitting All time low is never going to happen. Because that is like saying bitcoin is go down to at least $10 worth. No matter any saga coming up I don’t think we will get to see that.

I don't know what you are talking about. For people that came in 2019 this is the first real bear market season. IMHO this is merely an accumulation phase and could be that there will be heavy volatility ahead where the bears and bulls fight.

To me it seems we are at the point what would need an unseen devastating blow to make markets suffer more then they already have. And at this point only crash of the Binance, fatal flaw in ETH code, or rebirth of Satoshi could do it.

It's very telling that market crash after FTX wasn't anything compared to mayhem that UST crash caused. It was just chosen to be the scapegoat for the whole bear market. It didn't seem to matter that when it happened we were already near the bottom.

There is always this most painful season in crypto space that hurts even the strongest of crypto holders out there where they will almost give up, I don't believe that this bear market will be different, if you are here in 2019 you knew what I am talking about.

It will get to a point where many will start losing hope on crypto, a more painful bottom will occur and holders will lose faith, the bear market will look like it will be here forever.

We are not at this point yet so do not get too confidence that a new all times low is no more possible, no one saw COV-19 coming in 2020 and anything can still happen between 2023- 2024.