Topic: We'll be back to $13-14 by end of week. Know how I know? (Read 5644 times)

Really it depends on why you're selling. If you need that money, you need it, money is made to buy stuff you need.

I will probably sell in a few months to help finance a house, if after that BTC goes to the moon before I have the opportunity to buy again, too bad, but I won't regret having a house.

That's hilarious, we'll keep seeing more and more threads like this as historical evidence of people failing to hold long term and selling too early. Some people just never learn. Once we are at $10,000, we will look at everyone saying how $10,000 would never happen, that will be fun.

Also invested in ButterflyLabs

Some of them are, but many of them forgot their keys, sold all their bitcoins while they were still cheap, or lost them on exchanges (mostly MtGox which was the main exchange back then).

By some coincidence I just found this odd pic on my drive:



I don't remember what the joke was...

He is more famous then Satoshi. The proudhon song

omg, I just read this thread, insane low prices in 2011, I wish I knew about bitcoin before, lucky the ones who knew when it started, some of you must be millionaires by now?

Can anyone "pump" the thread where kwukduck admits he sold at such prices too? That would be an amazing thread worthy of getting a sticky in this section, to constantly remember him of how he has turned into what is nowadays left from him.

It's amazing how we are speculating about whether or not the price will fall back to below $1000 again, where back in the days people had the same things to talk about, but then on whole different price levels. But still, I am very proud of myself that I still hold some of my early 2013 $20-$25 coins. It feels very weird as back then when the price went up to $50, then $60, then $70, etc. that I was just waiting for the price to come down again to buy back some coins. But hey, we can't predict what will happen in the future.

Lol, proudhon, you're back! Congratulations on taking me back to the old days

Still overly insanely bearish, I see.

You've been missed.

No, no no. You're reading it wrong.

Proudhon is our greatest contra-indicator! When he sais it's gonna sink, it's actually blast-off time.

To the moon!!

Well it is clear that the present when referring to it at that precise moment can be considered the future as in this case when you speak of a fact that belongs to the past, certainly few people knew about of that, as its use has become a little more generalized the price has grown in the same proportion, Besides what has to be a fact is who sold at that price, He/She must have come back later, maybe that's indicating something or maybe not, the thing is that sometimes the story seems to repeat itself , it's now funny see the boy lamenting for not having bought to $8 when it was on $9-11 range or the other guy advising to him   about why not keep some USD on mtgox balance, just in case?,  that shows why everyone should make their own decisions.            

Poor the guys of this thread, a lot of suicides. Is not like the pizza bitcoins guy but they dont have nothing to envy.

Thanks for clearing that up. And yes, he's doing a great job, comedy gold.

Proudhon? Just a comedian.

Wow, you're like the anti-hodler lol
Any tech/charting to back your statement?
Or... just cynical, idk cant tell.. :/

This was appropriately bumped. We'll be back there soon. All the data is pointing to an epic crash to round out the long term downtrend we've been in.

Fuck me! Why did you bump this thread??!! 

You did great OP

This is absolutely insane. Pumping threads like this is good from time to time, it shows historical evidence of weak hands selling too soon.

Anyone knows if OP bought back eventually? I would be devastated to look at back at this thread if at least i didn't manage to buy back again to be honest.

welcome. Feel right at home in the past.

What action do you suggest to us having remained here, waiting for you?

I'm from the FUTURE.....

I don't know what I should tell you. So I will just say, yes you are right and I am wrong.  I guess you know better then me, price should be around $13-14. Ignorance is a bliss.

As I understand it a pension requires working at the same company for a very, very long time.  That negates the ability to shop around if you're valuable and leaves you vulnerable to layoffs if you are not.  In my industry staying at one job for over 2 years results in an ever increasing earnings hit, and being independent can more than double earnings.

Pension plans are managed by the exact same people managing 401ks.  They're typically invested in the same stocks, bonds, etc as other mutual funds focusing on low risk and asset preservation over growth.

And finally, most of my 401ks have been rolled over into IRAs at an institution where I can trade the funds myself.

Ugh, pensions and unions.  Blegh, ugh, blegh.  Talk about an economy killer.

Anyway, let me get this straight.  Relying on a 401k that you can spread across MANY different mutual funds, depending on their performance, thus encouraging the people who are managing your money to make sure it performs well, is worse than putting all your eggs in one basket via a pension?  What happens if the company who is handing out the pension goes under?  Then you have NOTHING.

Sorry for being "completely ignorant", but I would 10 times rather have a 401k than rely on ANY company to still be around to give me a pension 40 years from now.

compared to a pension, a 401k/roth ira is a scam. under ronald reagan nearly every worker had a pension. reagan and the wall street guys changed that. now less than 15% of workers have a pension and are stuck with someone else managing their entire livelihood... bring back the pension. but that will only happen with increased union membership and as long as republicans and center/right democrats are in office there wont be more pensions or unions there will be less stomped out 1 by 1. my grandparents wouldnt be alive without their pensions or would probably be eating dog food.


no sane person would  pick a 401k over a pension without being completely ignorant. You can have money for the rest of your life at a set ammount that only you manage, or you cvan have money locked away that you cant ever control...

Most people have no idea what they are investing in with their 401k. A guy in suit at work handed them a form and they picked a few menu items.  I'm not saying that a 401k has no merit as an investment vehicle, but if you don't know what specific companies your managers are investing your money in then don't fool yourself into thinking your Gordon Gecko.

"L^{ooks like Bitcoin is blasting off again!" - MtGoX}

Foolish comment of the day.  What investor doesn't have a 401k?  One without a job would be my only guess...  The investors I know all have 401k or 403b, IRA, Roth IRA, brokerage & money market accounts...

Well, why not keep some USD on mtgox balance, just in case?

Right, if you think that the amount of peoples money invested in bitcoins has grown by less than 50% during that last half a year, which would be amazingly stupid to assume

Satoshi's "stash" is getting bigger and bigger. Its inflation seems to be on par with the inflation of the user base.

skyhigh, the reason I'm saying the issue is minor is that while there has been 50%+ inflation, we've had a 1000%+ inflation of new Bitcoin adopters. There is no reason to be so skeptical as to assume we won't have growth during the next 6 months for example. With the adoption growth we've had, the price is rightfully much higher than it was in the past. How high it's "supposed to be" no one knows, it's obvious it isn't $1 or $30 but something in between.

The price should be around $13-$14 right now to sustain the level of growth we've had so far but clearly we're in a slump with low adoption rates and a ton of bad news. So, basically the main factor to take into account regarding inflation is the adoption rate and the other factor is how much miners believe in Bitcoin or how much they can afford to save.

In the current situation I'd say the price is not going to go below $9, perhaps not even below $10. More bad news is required for another slump like that. The demand for cheap coins at the $9-$11 range is quite decent and many think that price is lowish for selling.

Where it will go from here depends on many things, as I already said in my last post. It might stay here for a while but I don't think so. With all the bad news people will show strong support for good news if they come and if good news come, there will at least be a small rally. With lots of good news we will see a very strong rally. But that's all speculation, we might see quiet stagnation and more occasional bad news and the price will not go up, might even go down.

It's also true that for the functionality of Bitcoin it doesn't matter what the price is, but I personally care about Bitcoin in many different ways, as a miner, as an investor, as a supporter and in the future probably as a merchant as well. For some of my interests the price does matter.

You two missing the point that this 7200 coins per day is basically bitcoins inflation right now. Whole network will only have 7 million coins next week, and we are producing 7200 per day, every day. That my friends is the current inflation. Basic math tells you that 7200 / 7.000,000  gets you 0.1% inflation PER DAY. It doesn't really matter how many coins miners try to sell on regular basis. What matters is that bitcoins are diluting 0.1% per day or over 50% in the period of one single year.

All this early inflation is neatly hidden from regular people who don't think about every detail. Most of the them joined during or after we had a price boom from April $1 to June $30+ and are now thinking bitcoin has to be worth more somehow. Bitcoin isn't an investment like so many thought. Bitcoin functionality doesn't change if its worth $1 or $100. People greed wants it to be worth more in fiat cash. You can only hope Satoshi doesn't start selling his 1.500,000+ coin stash.  

7200 new coins per day is far from a minor thing. It's a huge thing, 50+% inflation in the last 365 days. There is no reason right now that with 50% inflation in the last year price would stay at the current levels.

I'm a miner (not a minor) and I am not selling any of my BitCoins spoils.  In fact I am thinking about buying more, especially if they are sub $9.00. 

Exactly. The whole issue of 7200 new coins every day is minor as long as there are enough miners who believe in a positive future for Bitcoin. The severity of the issue entirely depends on that.

There are miners who don't sell almost any coins because they believe in a higher future value and don't need the USD right now. Then there is a large group of miners who sell some because they want to get their investment back gradually but they also believe in Bitcoin so they will save a portion. I'm one of those miners, following a 50/50 cashout/save plan. Currently I'm not doing any trades though because I think the price is low and will come up.

The situation right now is that there have been a steady flow of bad news and problems related to Bitcoin-services which has pretty much killed all attempts at a rally. Added, the euro-players have a problem getting money to buy coins, I personally know some people who would buy but can't yet. Also, it's still vacation season and there has been a lack of hype for Bitcoin so that slows everything down as well.

It's also important to remember that 7200 coins is a marginal part of every day Bitcoin transfers. Very marginal. And as I already explained, not even close to all of those coins are sold as they are mined. It's hard to estimate how much is but I don't think it's even 50%, probably less.

When more miners start to be skeptical about the long-term prospects then there is reason to worry. For me personally a key issue right now as an euro-player is the comeback of reliable sepa-transfers across the board. That would be a very positive sign. Further serious problems with european banks, however, would be a really bad thing and my confidence about the whole thing would go way down.

The thing is, Bitcoin as a currency, fundamentally, is rock solid still. But at this stage of development it is entirely dependent on the ability of easy transfer to USD/EUR. That is because it's not a universal currency and is mostly used as a payment method only. At this stage painless transfers are crucial.

That being said, my prediction regarding the price of BTC depends on what will happen. If there is continued bad news we might see a further crash but if things start getting better; euro transfers back, new bitcoin client with encryption, more services and products available for bitcoins (this is happening, more services come online every day and more stuff becomes available for coins), then we will see a gradual price increase, maybe a new speculation bubble if hype builds up.

You haven't accounted for miners who never intend to sell for USD more than they have to to pay their bills.

And this is life's bear that is coming to bite them in the ass...

I'm with you OP, I sold at $10.80, and fully expect prices to never drop below $10 again in my lifetime.  Setting my expectations in this fashion is a great coping mechanism in case prices drop, which would be a welcome surprise.  Expectations are a bitch; managing them is the secret to happiness.

On the plus side, if prices rise, I've given money to my fellow hackers and other early adopters to support them in their efforts to create this currency system, which in my value system, is better than giving it to the Wall Street crowd.  And though the Venn diagram of Wall Streeters and bitcoiners overlaps, I think it's only by a tiny bit.

I'ts obvious that many here are new to investing in general.  Real investing is 80% homework and 20% balls. You should have a plan with contingencies and the courage to follow through long term. Panic selling is not a plan it's an emotional response to a math problem.
Many investors behave this way. Once you understand that those people can be manipulated into buying or selling you have become an investor.
P.S. If you have a 401k or something like that, you are not an investor, you are a follower.

Yep. Mhm. Indeed.

What we need now is to have a few strategically placed fairly strong buys of 2-300BTC each and we'll see those sell walls crumble I do believe. Unless we're going to play see-saw again like yesterday. 

It'd be nice if you were right.  I have plenty of coins to sell at 14.  At $10 I'm just gonna mentally write them off and go for "double or nothing in a year."

The 9 to 11 channel is far more likely short term.  Prices should flatline again for a month, then dive again.  3/4 of the current mining capacity hasn't mined enough to pay for their rigs yet.

I could probably liberate myself from my shirt maybe?  I don't know.  Let's cross that bridge when we get there

I was about to go, there aren't that many of us who are homosexuals. Then it occurred to me there was some cute girl in the other thread...

Alright, how about being more exact about what's "less shy" before I go put out a buy for $20?

Somehow it doesn't come across as likely that intelligent women would promise to run through the city naked, or give free blowjobs when BTC hits say $20

It's crass but the fact is that bitcoin must eventually go to the masses and it's proven that sex sells and cheap thrills work great for marketing and awareness

So we just need a sexy, likely busty, woman who has no qualms about making salacious empty promises to promote Bitcoin

Wish you would have told us this last week.

OP you will be wrong this time....

New trading channel will be $9 to $11, before we will most likely head lower. This is still $30 bubble bursting, simply based on the fact that demand can't meet the supply of 7200 coin per day, every day. Supply adds up over a period of time and we get this bigger moves. Sure Mybitcoin and Poland doesn't help, but it really doesn't effect things as much as some people around here think.

In the future price will drop all the way to the point where it will be easy for the daily supply of 7200 coins to be met with $ value. Bitcoin production cost will only be a small part of the equation. If it will cost $5 to produce a coin and market won't be able to come up daily with $36,000 fresh dollars, unfortunately price would go below production cost. Noone ever said mining will always be profitable.

Network total hashrate is at 14 TH and growing at a high rate of 6% to 12% every re-target. Even if this growth would slow down considerably, less than 3% per re-target, network would still be growing by a lot. Every day there is more and more people finding out about bitcoins and they have decent radeon cards capable of mining. I'm sure there are 10 million cards on the internet right now, while whole network mines with less than 50k cards.

So network will keep growing overall, while price will drop to the level where new fresh money added to the market can meet 7200 daily supply. It doesn't matter if miners go on strike and don't sell anything for months. It would only be temporary change. It's all about market cap and total number of coins, which will next week reach 7 million.

I don't quite get the logic: "have the fundamentals changed?"

No, compared to when it was at $2 or even less. So it should go back to $2? LOL

Yeah, we need a spokesmodel like Morgan Webb or someone.  Regardless, it'd be nice if we crack $20 again.  If we can get to that level again, I'd be less shy in front of the camera

There are some beautiful and intelligent women who could represent us. Shira Lazar would be a good spokes model for us! http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7368784n

Well, we'll need to get some mainstream babes into the community before we could aim higher, as it is, it's mostly guys here and geek babes are usually too smart (or not enough of an attention seeking personality) to make promises like those

Well said.

You guys see that order for 666 LOL .

Heh, $13?  We can aim higher than that

BUY! BUY! BUY!

Damn and I thought it's because Bitcoin finally got some sexy babe promising titillation if BTC goes back to $13 like Tanya Devereaux (Net Neutrality), Larissa Riquelme (Paraguay, World Cup), Bobbi Eden (Netherland, World Cup)

Good points both of you, but the fact is there was a lot of big news about the Bitcoin economy recently.  Yes, Bitcoin itself is fine as ever, and all the errors were made by third parties and end-users, but these the Bitcoin algo/network can't exist by itself in a vacuum, and people need to be able to use it for it to succeed.  These are real issues that need to be solved ASAP, and it is entirely possible that one to many of these horror stories could sour the idea on the public and drive them away for good.  The standard counterpoint to this is that Bitcoin will continue to survive as long as 2 people use it to trade, but I'm sure we all agree that we want this to take off within our lifetimes.

Nevertheless, I am convinced these are simply growing pains as we learn to adopt to a truly free system after being coddled all these years by government and the financial industry.  It'll be hard work but there is enough real momentum behind this to succeed.

I'm just glad I got to buy cheap today~

I dont understand why anyone would sell their BTCs right now. Anyone looking to make a profit and/or better the economy would actually buy right now. By the end of next week, or even if not next month, the price will return to a somewhat stable or ballpark $12-16. Hell it's already back to 11 right now. Sure it might plummet tomorrow even down to $5 in a flash, but BTCs are not in a dire emergency of failing. There have been much worse circumstances with fantastic comebacks with BTC over the past few months.
Patience. Don't panic.
Well then again, like  Joulesbeef says - maybe dont change. You make it more lucrative for us.

I would've thrown $400 USD into BTCs back a few hours ago when it was only $8, but sadly it takes a day to get money into Mtgox from Dwolla's bank account. I rely on Paypal for instantaneous payments.

+1

to many people base their trades on the movement.. sometimes movement might warn you to pick up the ole googles and see if their is any news you need to be aware of, if not, it is best to just close the exchange pages for the day and go out for a walk by the river.

panic sellers.. you are a long term bulls wet dream, dont ever change

No. People on IRC claim it's the CIA or 'Bernanke', and 'you're an idiot if you don't sell now'. After a while you just tune out & ignore them, lol

Im pretty sure we all know why it plumets...

It "plummeted" because all sell orders down to $8.7 were filled. It wasn't the hand of God, an omen or a supernatural anomaly.

Nobody is forcing people to sell their coins at $8.7.

The question I always ask myself before selling a stock or, in this case, bitcoin, is, "have the fundamentals changed?"

Nothing about the fundamentals of Bitcoin has changed, so there's no reason to sell.   Just ride it out.

Panic sells? I mean, it pretty much plummeted...

Why do people keep selling low??  At least don't buy back high.

Buy high, sell low.

It’s going up? Buy!
It’s going down? Sell!

Because I just sold all my Bitcoins at $9.99. It NEVER fails FML...