We're almost half way to 100x (250k)

exstasie

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Quote from: Poker Player on December 25, 2020, 01:41:36 AM

Quote from: exstasie on December 24, 2020, 09:50:55 PM

Crazy bubble valuations aren't just a matter of demand, but of supply. People tend to focus on the inflows (demand) required to maintain certain BTC prices. What they don't think about is what happens to prices when the market collectively refuses to sell, and coins disappear from the ask side and from exchanges entirely. When everyone HODLs, there are significantly less coins for sale. That means it takes much less demand to push prices higher.

I was just thinking about that.

In recent pre-ATH times we saw two things:

1) Withdrawals of bitcoin from the exchanges.
2) Growing demand from institutional investors.

When people withdraw the bitcoin to their paper or hard wallet it is because they do not intend to trade with it, but to hold, and this reduces the offer. On the other hand, institutional investors don't buy 1 bitcoin or 0.1, they buy large amounts, making demand very high.

If this trend continues in the future, we may see prices that we now consider crazy, and even more so if we consider that institutional investors do not buy bitcoin to trade as individuals do.

Yep, it's quite a potent combination. The dynamic is worth mentioning because people try to apply rational ideas ("there is a limited amount of money, so for BTC to rise it must come from somewhere else, so BTC's market cap can't possibly be bigger than gold") to an irrational market. It doesn't work. With an extremely limited available supply, extreme and totally irrational valuations are possible. We're talking about the blow-off top of an exponential bubble. Market caps are not physical barriers.

darewaller

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Why are you insisting on calculating with 100x or 50x or any x in the end? Because things are not as simple as you might imagine, they are on contrary very difficult the higher you go. Going from 1 dollar to 2 dollars wasn't that hard, it was quite easy in fact, it required only few hundred dollars at most probably, or maybe a few thousand dollars at most.

Rising from $100k to $200k will require tens of billions of dollars, probably over hundred billion dollars. How could you think "if the bottom was like this, and the top is like that, if we do the same thing from here we are going to be super high"? Because you can't calculate it that way, it is literally impossible to expect the same thing to be done over and over again just because it has happened once, specially not going to happen at higher prices because it is much harder and difficult.

Febo

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Quote from: dothebeats on December 24, 2020, 06:58:00 PM

Possible, but my feeble mind can't still comprehend where the money would come from in order to reach $250k. I know it's possible and doable in a few decades but with other contending assets that are still favored by many of the rich people and laymen alike, it'll be hard for bitcoin to get there. Fair analysis based on the movements of the price in the past years, though that's not the only factor that affects future price trends but it sure is one.

People are keep buying. When marketcap goes up 1 trillion that dont mean that for 1 trillion BTC was bought. People dont sell and their bitcoins inflate marketcap. Also Satoshi's coins. And other lost coins. But then it is also opposite. In bear market when Bitcoin marketcap decrease for a trillion, that dont mean a trillion dollars was sold for Bitcoin. This is the reason why Bitcoin price is so volatile.

Lucius

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Nothing is impossible if this trend continues, which means that large investors continue to invest more and more, which means that in the first half of the next year BTC could reach a market cap of $1 trillion, which would mean that the price would be around $50 000. While it may seem to some that such a high price for BTC could slow investment, it should not be forgotten that there are companies and funds that have trillions under their management (example Fidelity $8 + trillion).

Back in 2018, Tim Draper published his forecast for 2022/23, and then he announced that the price for 1 BTC could then be exactly $250 000. The number is big, but just 9 months ago we were below $5000, and only a few people talked about the new ATH before the end of this year - I also did not personally believe that this would happen given the situation in which the whole world finds itself.

ethereumhunter

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Quote from: btc_angela on December 25, 2020, 01:27:08 AM

We have seen many predictions, from $100k-$300k, if you hear it, everyone becomes very excited. But later they realised that it will not be an easy road for bitcoin to make that run to that price. We need more money to pour in the next 12-24 months in order to get to that price.

Yeah, that is right. With many predictions that people can see, they will invest their money in bitcoin and wait for the price to start a rally to the high price. But we are still too far from $100k, and we do not know when it will happen. Maybe in the next year or the next two years more, we do not know. All we can do now is just prepare by making more and more bitcoin because if we do not do that, we will miss the chance to make a big profit.

passwordnow

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Quote from: NeuroticFish on December 22, 2020, 03:30:56 AM

Quote from: jackg on December 21, 2020, 02:16:13 PM

it's normally not the best time to buy when everyone's bullish or if it is it's riskier to do

MicroStrategy has just done this. And although many are surprised by it I find it normal:
1. It's consistent with the rule to buy more times over longer period of time.
2. It validates the analysis that the bull run (or bubble?) is just at the beginning.

This is a very good point to think of. MicroStrategy and other institutions have been continuously buying even if it's in the bull run. I know they're better than me if it's about the market and there's specific reason why they do that despite it's not that advisable to buy at the top.
Maybe this top that we're having and experiencing lately is just the start of it all. And later on, this top will eventually be covered by another top and so on and so forth. If there's a lesser supply that's in the circulation then the miners are the ones that would take all the coins at ATH price to sell it to these institutions if there's not that much supply anymore in exchanges and OTC markets.

Poker Player

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Quote from: exstasie on December 24, 2020, 09:50:55 PM

Crazy bubble valuations aren't just a matter of demand, but of supply. People tend to focus on the inflows (demand) required to maintain certain BTC prices. What they don't think about is what happens to prices when the market collectively refuses to sell, and coins disappear from the ask side and from exchanges entirely. When everyone HODLs, there are significantly less coins for sale. That means it takes much less demand to push prices higher.

I was just thinking about that.

In recent pre-ATH times we saw two things:

1) Withdrawals of bitcoin from the exchanges.
2) Growing demand from institutional investors.

When people withdraw the bitcoin to their paper or hard wallet it is because they do not intend to trade with it, but to hold, and this reduces the offer. On the other hand, institutional investors don't buy 1 bitcoin or 0.1, they buy large amounts, making demand very high.

If this trend continues in the future, we may see prices that we now consider crazy, and even more so if we consider that institutional investors do not buy bitcoin to trade as individuals do.

btc_angela

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Quote from: LogitechMouse on December 24, 2020, 09:02:46 PM

The magic word for now is "HODL, HODL, HODL".

That's always been the case, buy in dip and then HODL, there's no rocket science in crypto if you wanted to make money. But it's going to be very tough mentally, specially like holding for 1-3 years.

Quote from: LogitechMouse on December 24, 2020, 09:02:46 PM

We've seen Bitcoin moving upwards and upwards this past few weeks and I know that this will be the trend in the future so $250k per Bitcoin is possible. It isn't a matter of it will happen but it is a matter of when it will happen because we're expecting it to happen already

.

HODL, Know when to enter and when to exit.

We have seen many predictions, from $100k-$300k, if you hear it, everyone becomes very excited. But later they realised that it will not be an easy road for bitcoin to make that run to that price. We need more money to pour in the next 12-24 months in order to get to that price.

exstasie

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Quote from: dothebeats on December 24, 2020, 06:58:00 PM

Possible, but my feeble mind can't still comprehend where the money would come from in order to reach $250k.

Crazy bubble valuations aren't just a matter of demand, but of supply. People tend to focus on the inflows (demand) required to maintain certain BTC prices. What they don't think about is what happens to prices when the market collectively refuses to sell, and coins disappear from the ask side and from exchanges entirely. When everyone HODLs, there are significantly less coins for sale. That means it takes much less demand to push prices higher.

The blow-off top phase of the bubble (the vertical end stage when exponential gains come extremely fast) doesn't last long. In relative terms, very little volume is traded at the top. The market is so illiquid that it's impossible to predict just how high it'll top out. $250K is perfectly reasonable. So is $500K. Why not?

The market won't necessarily stay there.

Quote from: dothebeats on December 24, 2020, 06:58:00 PM

I know it's possible and doable in a few decades but with other contending assets that are still favored by many of the rich people and laymen alike, it'll be hard for bitcoin to get there.

Smart money knows BTC will eclipse gold's gains many times over. I think we'll see lots of small positions in BTC (in terms of total portfolio size) by institutional investors and the rich in the coming years.

LogitechMouse

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The magic word for now is "HODL, HODL, HODL".

We've seen Bitcoin moving upwards and upwards this past few weeks and I know that this will be the trend in the future so $250k per Bitcoin is possible. It isn't a matter of it will happen but it is a matter of when it will happen because we're expecting it to happen already

.

HODL, Know when to enter and when to exit.

dothebeats

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Possible, but my feeble mind can't still comprehend where the money would come from in order to reach $250k. I know it's possible and doable in a few decades but with other contending assets that are still favored by many of the rich people and laymen alike, it'll be hard for bitcoin to get there. Fair analysis based on the movements of the price in the past years, though that's not the only factor that affects future price trends but it sure is one.

Ryker1

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Well, we will never know. That’s why the only option is to hodl wait until the right moment.
Considering the fact that banks are thriving and corona is still there, there is a chance that we can actually reach that destination. Especially people nowadays have access to the internet and knows how to study on their own. They will soon realize that Bitcoin is offering them the best or the greatest thing they need on their finance. Sooner, --a recession will be there, bitcoin will be the only option people will have so we the pioneers will benefit from it.

maxreish

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Quote from: Cherylstar86 on December 22, 2020, 05:43:44 PM

That an impossible thing to see this year, we're just only about to see it up to $35k and yet many speculated until thousands? Even if the price struggles to beat $20k this year, the heart warming convictions were still there raging.
Dreaming isn't bad, but we need to optimized our mindset in order to prevent frustrations.

Of course we can't reach that this year but we are talking about the possibilities here. Since 400x increase from 2018 happened, $120k will also be possible to happen for the upcoming years. Remember that anything is possible and new ATH achieved.

Other speculated the price of btc more than 200k usd and who knows? Ive seen how bitcoin performs through the years and we can definitely expect optimistic approach from btc.

exstasie

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Quote from: jackg on December 21, 2020, 02:16:13 PM

In 2018 we saw drops down to ~2900 and recently we dropped to around $4000, we're now already 600% up from the $4000 figure. I don't see $250k being completely out of reach by now, since an extra move as big as we've seen ever the past few months would take us to $120k.

It helps to mention the exchange you're referring to. None of the major exchanges (Coinbase, Bitstamp, Bitfinex, etc.) made it past the $3,100s. Maybe you should be looking at $300K+ instead of $250K. Wink

What significance does 100x from the bottom have, to you? Some sort of psychological barrier?

$3,122 (Bitstamp) x 100 = $312K, which is smack in the middle of my target zone, which is based on extrapolations of past bull runs once they pass an historic ATH. Interesting!

Cherylstar86

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Quote from: Untomabur on December 22, 2020, 05:21:38 PM

even though the most popular speculation right now is going up to $ 350k,
but still don't know when that will happen, yes experts say it will be at the end of 2021, for me it is still a dream.

That an impossible thing to see this year, we're just only about to see it up to $35k and yet many speculated until thousands? Even if the price struggles to beat $20k this year, the heart warming convictions were still there raging.
Dreaming isn't bad, but we need to optimized our mindset in order to prevent frustrations.

Untomabur

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even though the most popular speculation right now is going up to $ 350k,
but still don't know when that will happen, yes experts say it will be at the end of 2021, for me it is still a dream.

wxa7115

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Quote from: jackg on December 21, 2020, 02:16:13 PM

In 2018 we saw drops down to ~2900 and recently we dropped to around $4000, we're now already 600% up from the $4000 figure. I don't see $250k being completely out of reach by now, since an extra move as big as we've seen ever the past few months would take us to $120k.

(This is just a curious evaluation I don't want anyone trading based on this alone - it's normally not the best time to buy when everyone's bullish or if it is it's riskier to do).

The only problem I see is that you are dismissing the crash that will come, lets assume this bull run takes to the 40k level and then a crash happens that take us back to the 10k level at that point the 250k level will still be completely out of reach for the next bull market but the 120k level may be in the cards.

At the end it all depends on how we make our calculations so we could always imagine an scenario in which bitcoin reaches 250k or an scenario where the price drops dramatically, still it is interesting to read the opinions of other member on this topic in particular because I sincerely hope that I am the one that is wrong and you are the one that is right since that will benefit us all. Grin

RealMalatesta

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The difference between going from $4k to $20k (making a 5x return) to making a $20k to $100k (5x again) return is the amount of money required. What people who calculate by % forgets is that going from $90k to $100k requires tens of billions of dollars easily, whereas going from 10k to 20k doesn't require the same amount of money, it requires a lot less money to go from $10k to $20k. So, here we see that 2x profit (going from $10k to $20k) is not the same as nearly 10% profit when you are going from $90k to $100k, still $10k but requires 10x more money on a lot less profiting.

So, basically you spend more money to bring it higher at high levels while not profiting, so why should they do it? It means less people do it, and that makes things harder. Not saying it will not happen, we could still go to $250k and even maybe more one day, I just wanted to explain why it is harder.

7788bitcoin

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Quote from: jackg on December 21, 2020, 02:16:13 PM

(This is just a curious evaluation I don't want anyone trading based on this alone - it's normally not the best time to buy when everyone's bullish or if it is it's riskier to do).

There were many who were planning to invest during a correction and that plan was extended due to the pandemic and the job insecurity but now i missed the boat altogether because i am not too confident in investing during this period when the price is touching its all time high valuation and there are many who missed the boat as well Undecided

.

I still expect a correction before the valuation goes higher and hopefully will get a chance to invest as well but with institutional investors ruling the market whenever there is a minor correction they are investing heavily and i would like to see how long they will follow the same pattern.

globalpain

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$ 200k may seem very expensive for Bitcoin, but such a price is still very feasible to achieve, yes 100x is still possible,
it's just that we have to be able and hold for a long time.

pooya87

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Quote from: jackg on December 21, 2020, 06:33:37 PM

But we can expect a colossal crash, 80%+ again I reckon.

No we can't YET because such "colossal crashes" only happen after bubbles not after rallies. What we had so far was simply a bull run with price going up and there is no bubble in sight.
But when we enter a bubble, like reaching $500k then we can expect the price to crash hard like it has always done in the past.

Is it good time to buy? Not the best but yes, people aren't really bullish on bitcoin yet. If they were then we would have seen a lot more bullishness in the market with rises every day instead of an initial small rise after the ATH was broken followed by a healthy correction and now a shrinking daily fluctuation (9% yesterday and 3.7% today!) heading towards stability and possibly accumulation again.

davis196

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Quote from: jackg on December 21, 2020, 02:16:13 PM

In 2018 we saw drops down to ~2900 and recently we dropped to around $4000, we're now already 600% up from the $4000 figure. I don't see $250k being completely out of reach by now, since an extra move as big as we've seen ever the past few months would take us to $120k.

(This is just a curious evaluation I don't want anyone trading based on this alone - it's normally not the best time to buy when everyone's bullish or if it is it's riskier to do).

600% growth from 4K USD to 24K USD is one thing.
100x growth from 25K USD to 250 USD is a completely different category.I assume that,if the insane money printing continues and there is no FUD coming from the G-20 governments,the cryptocurrency marker cap might reach 1 trillion USD somewhere around 2021 or 2022.
However,a 1 trillion USD market cap isn't enough for a 250K USD Bitcoin price.We need way more capitals invested into the crypto markets.Probably around several trillion US dollars.
We don't know what will happen after the pandemic ends and when will it end?

NeuroticFish

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Quote from: jackg on December 21, 2020, 02:16:13 PM

it's normally not the best time to buy when everyone's bullish or if it is it's riskier to do

MicroStrategy has just done this. And although many are surprised by it I find it normal:
1. It's consistent with the rule to buy more times over longer period of time.
2. It validates the analysis that the bull run (or bubble?) is just at the beginning.

sunsilk

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Quote from: milewilda on December 21, 2020, 05:57:51 PM

Not to be bitter on having these kind of numbers but if we do consider on how big the marketcap would be on reaching 250k then i dont know on what would be the situation in terms of comparison
of Bitcoin and with the top fiat currencies when it comes to value and also to others.
We can presume out those high multipliers when the price was still soo small but since we are already in 20k+ side then reaching 600% or 100x is
almost out of reach.Being bullish isnt a bad thing but if i do mind off that way then im not really that patient on waiting up for too long.
It can be reach but not might be on my lifetime lol.

You need to be patient if you want to witness those high prices that are out of reach for the moment. We have never been this so bullish and this is greater than the last bull run that we get. Not ignoring the possible crash or plummets that would likely to be heavier than March's but it would also open the idea that it could go up as greater than we have.

More fiat printed, this would turn people to start thinking of a valuable asset that they can turn in. One idea would be bitcoin since it's getting the idea through mainstream and traditional financial institutions.

TravelMug

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Quote from: jackg on December 21, 2020, 02:16:13 PM

In 2018 we saw drops down to ~2900 and recently we dropped to around $4000, we're now already 600% up from the $4000 figure. I don't see $250k being completely out of reach by now, since an extra move as big as we've seen ever the past few months would take us to $120k.

(This is just a curious evaluation I don't want anyone trading based on this alone - it's normally not the best time to buy when everyone's bullish or if it is it's riskier to do).

Yeah, and with the way bitcoin's narrative from a speculative asset to be more of companies hedge and the next gold, I'm not surprised that in the next 2 years the price could peak on 6 digits.

So I definitely agree with your curious evaluation and I'm sure there could be more members here that could agree because that's where everything is looking at to even as high as $300k down the line.

crwth

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I'm concerned about how much volume it's going to be when it reaches that amount. The volume of money that would be invested to reach that amount. That's really a high figure and considering that we have reached another 600%, I'm sure that the news about it is widespread. It can reach another new high in the following months.

I hope it's not going to be a constant USDT printing. Shocked

thecodebear

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All we need is time. Bitcoin is an unstoppable money gobbling machine. Now that the so called "smart money" is finally starting to get smart and enter the fray, it's only a matter of time until a quarter million dollar price is standard. I think it'll probably be 5 years until it gets there, but yeah just needs time. Bitcoin, as is, is already on its way to being digital gold / reserve currency for the world, and the big money institutions are finally starting (only just starting) to realize that.

An expanded DeFi and a scalable Ethereum to expand the other side of the crypto world (smart contracts) will help out as well as it'll raise the level of the entire crypto market including bitcoin. Just needs time.

jackg

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Quote from: milewilda on December 21, 2020, 05:57:51 PM

Not to be bitter on having these kind of numbers but if we do consider on how big the marketcap would be on reaching 250k then i dont know on what would be the situation in terms of comparison
of Bitcoin and with the top fiat currencies when it comes to value and also to others.

The £ sterling has a market cap of around $3tr+. Btc valued at $300k is $6.3tr, I don't think it's beyond reach. If it happens it'd be a nice fuck you to Amazon too Grin

. But we can expect a colossal crash, 80%+ again I reckon.

Quote from: AjithBtc on December 21, 2020, 05:17:38 PM

There is marginal fluctuation happening with the price. People are observing the market closely. The market that fell will grow, because the ending days of year used to make a big price rise. In comparison to the ath value the price has dropped little. Maybe this corrective fluctuation is for a large scale price pumping. $250k is beyond imagination, but can experience the reality within next five years of time.

I avoid posting this sort of information until we're in a bead period. I don't want to influence gambling but rather confidence to holders and buyers near the top.

We always must boil over before going higher (for the healthiest move) ...

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on December 21, 2020, 03:09:08 PM

$150,000 is definitely possible & to be honest I’d say likely at some point in the next 12-18 months. With the way traditional investments are performing, low & possibly negative interest rates, constant fiat money printing etc bitcoin is a very attractive asset.

Nothing seems to correlate with each other in the stock market either and we normally recover fairly fast after a crisis - this time we've taken longer in most places.

I think we need to see some sort of start to an economic boom or a lot of developments in crypto (even defi becoming more stable and offering better interest rates than banks and most places).

milewilda

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Quote from: jackg on December 21, 2020, 02:16:13 PM

In 2018 we saw drops down to ~2900 and recently we dropped to around $4000, we're now already 600% up from the $4000 figure. I don't see $250k being completely out of reach by now, since an extra move as big as we've seen ever the past few months would take us to $120k.

(This is just a curious evaluation I don't want anyone trading based on this alone - it's normally not the best time to buy when everyone's bullish or if it is it's riskier to do).

Not to be bitter on having these kind of numbers but if we do consider on how big the marketcap would be on reaching 250k then i dont know on what would be the situation in terms of comparison
of Bitcoin and with the top fiat currencies when it comes to value and also to others.
We can presume out those high multipliers when the price was still soo small but since we are already in 20k+ side then reaching 600% or 100x is
almost out of reach.Being bullish isnt a bad thing but if i do mind off that way then im not really that patient on waiting up for too long.
It can be reach but not might be on my lifetime lol.

AjithBtc

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There is marginal fluctuation happening with the price. People are observing the market closely. The market that fell will grow, because the ending days of year used to make a big price rise. In comparison to the ath value the price has dropped little. Maybe this corrective fluctuation is for a large scale price pumping. $250k is beyond imagination, but can experience the reality within next five years of time.

Wysi

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Indeed, it's a massive gain since last bear market and this is a proof that $120k does seem to be far away but it's neither gonna take place in 2021 as Bitcoin requires ample amount of time since we have achieved this percentage of price increase in a span of 3 years. We should be optimistic but not unreasonable in terms of prediction.

LFC_Bitcoin

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$150,000 is definitely possible & to be honest I’d say likely at some point in the next 12-18 months. With the way traditional investments are performing, low & possibly negative interest rates, constant fiat money printing etc bitcoin is a very attractive asset.

The institutional money will come like a tsunami in 2021, we’ve never seen anything like it.

HODL.

cr1776

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Quote from: jackg on December 21, 2020, 02:16:13 PM

In 2018 we saw drops down to ~2900 and recently we dropped to around $4000, we're now already 600% up from the $4000 figure. I don't see $250k being completely out of reach by now, since an extra move as big as we've seen ever the past few months would take us to $120k.

(This is just a curious evaluation I don't want anyone trading based on this alone - it's normally not the best time to buy when everyone's bullish or if it is it's riskier to do).

Buy when there is blood in the streets. Be “fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”

jackg

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https://bit.ly/387FXHi lightning theory

In 2018 we saw drops down to ~2900 and recently we dropped to around $4000, we're now already 600% up from the $4000 figure. I don't see $250k being completely out of reach by now, since an extra move as big as we've seen ever the past few months would take us to $120k.

(This is just a curious evaluation I don't want anyone trading based on this alone - it's normally not the best time to buy when everyone's bullish or if it is it's riskier to do).

Topic: We're almost half way to 100x (250k) (Read 380 times)