Topic: What a weekend! (Read 2603 times)

But, but, but this evil terrorists everywhere. We need to kill them all!!! We need total surveillance.
We need more guns too. Protect from the tyranical government -> oh wait.. ah paradoxon.

I seriously doubt that.

If Bitcoin is to succeed, it will be about as 'free' as Facebook, Google, Smartphone GPS's, and all the other sychn'd up techo crap that has come to dominate peoples lives and also leave a digital trace of all their financial and physical activity and even thoughts.

Go back two years and I would have agreed with your statement, but now, absolutely not.


Says the American citizen with no racial, social, or cultural ties to China.

If you are so up for freedom, I would suggest that you may want to get the fk outta the USofA. You guys are taking ever deeper anal probes from the authorities by the day and accepting it or even supporting it.

I said long ago what I thought about China and so I don't tend to put too much emphasis on what is going on over there.

There is enough momentum building in the rest of the world that we can ignore China for the time being.

I expect that BTC will continue trading in China and that eventually they will be forced to accept (along with India) as the rest of the world starts adopting it.

The next big bubble will be lead by the U.S and I think $1200 is going to look like Tesco Value.

Bitcoin is not crack cocaine.

China is not like the west, where there are reams of legislative checks and balances and individual freedoms (although these are gradually being eroded away) which prevent any one faction or group from dictating their will (too much) to the rest. In China, the government can do whatever they want.

If the Chinese government tells a bunch of it's wealthy Shanghai/Beijing citizens that they are not allowed to have Bitcoin, then these people are not going to want to be seen with bitcoin after the date upon which it may (or who knows, may even not) be banned. Sure a black market will still exist and many Chinese Bitcoin investors with access or planned access to foreign financial accounts may well choose to hold post 31st January, but the inescapable fact is that if China does indeed ban Bitcoin trading from the 31st January, then a sizeable portion of Bitcoin will be hitting all the exchanges before and after this date exerting increased selling pressure on Bitcoin worldwide. This is undeniably a bearish factor for Bitcoin, even if only a short term thing.

With that in mind, if you were a Chinaman without access to foreign currency markets (i.e. u need to cash out within one month), but holding a big load of Bitcoin that you never panic sold, you would be licking your lips at this latest uptrend, which seems to be increasingly gathering momentum., wouldn't ya?

 

Great weekend for sure. I'm just a little upset I bought a small amount of BTC last week for $725 and decided to buy the rest after the weekend because of the so-called "weekend dip"... I should have known better that $725 at this point is cheap as hell, but greed got the best of me.

China still has a surprisingly high volume of trade and people are getting confident that the bad news from a few weeks ago is not gonna matter. Rumors of Netflix, Facebook and Wall Street getting in + Zynga, Overstock, Porn.com accepting bitcoin is making people extremely bullish. People are realizing this may be their last chance to get in before the price skyrockets again. All these great news in the beginning of 2014 is pretty exciting.

With Zynga, Facebook, Netflix and Overstock adoption and awareness will grow faster. Amazon, eBay, Starbucks, Newegg, Dell, and IBM will hopefully adopt bitcoin this year as well (source: my crystal ball). And with hedge funds getting in and the Wrinklevoss ETF getting approved I would expect a minimum price of $4000/btc this year.

Thanks very much for your comments!

It may seem like I am punch drunk but it's looking very much like it turned out right to be a bull over the past few weeks. I explained my reasons in several posts. I stick by them.

But I am not a day trader. I tried it but can't hack the stress. It strikes me that this might not be the best time and market for it anyway.

I am not disinterested about China! I was the first to respond to the recent post by the Chinese bloke. I mention China all the time!

Fundamentally the China thing is not a problem for Bitcoin's growth. I think it would be better for Bitcoin for there to be a clean break and for them to drop out completely and I think that we would bounce back very quick indeed from any dip this caused, rather for there to be doubt dragging on. It's the psychological factor that is a bit worrying, but in the end I think it is one element among many with Bitcoin and the goods outweigh the bads quite significantly at the moment.

I also don't need to learn special TA to see that Hodling is looking by far the best option for now and that day trading is fraught with danger. It's unnecessary right now and for the weeks to come I think. Just Hodl!

Incidentally I want to keep a good portion of BTC and spend some, at least until it is way into the mainstream. I think it is going to be a good, multi-faceted asset to have in a portfolio.

Yeah. I understand this.

I myself have a few hundred thousand USD of 'volume' with never more than $30K principle, which I only rarely have more than 50% invested at anyone time.

But 'volume' still serves to drive the price up, as well as smack it back down.

Much of that volume is from a no fee exchange.

With all due respect, I am a late late comer to Bitcoin investment and bought my first (speculative) coins at around $700 in late November after foolishly selling for $340, a stash of 15 Silk Road coins that I bought for $100. This business was done LocalBitcoins. That same night, I dreamt that Bitcoin took out $600 on MtGox (That is where I checked Bitcoin price, I never even knew about Bitstamp or Bitcoinswisdom back then), so I dived in (after waiting 11 days to get set up on Bitstamp), made thousands, and then when the warning signals came, I dropped everything more or less in a very timely fashion.

So my trigger happiness has both made and saved me thousands of pounds. I called each crash before it came and got in practically perfectly on the first dip, and with hindsight, getting in at $540 on the second crash could have also have been a blinding move, except BTC went to $340 on Bitstamp and I lost my nerve as a bearish short term pennant formed on bounce at sub $500, resulting in me 'pulling the trigger' and selling at $490. Instead of thousands in profits, I took a 900 GBP hit on that one. worst Bitcoin decision to date.

So yeah, I suppose my twitchy finger could be seen as a fault. But with precious metals, I have been on a bull ride that turned into a bearish headache before and have come away worse off from that than i was when I went in (although I still own a fair bit of physical metal).

Your fault, is that like many on here, you have started off balanced and analytical, but have gotten drunk on Bitcoin Punch. You have been correctly bullish from $500-$600 back when I was sitting out, at first in a huff, but latterly through caution, but now you are whizzing around with Bitcoin rose tinted glasses on and just as with all those who were calling me an idiot for selling at $1000 (prior to the big drops), you will probably be incapable of sensing when the tide turns, or even when it has turned. Now, should Bitcoin continue as it always has done up until now, in the long run you will come good, but who is to say that the same paradigm will continue to progress and grow and even if it does, then for how long?

Right now for example, there is clear momentum in Bitcoin and who knows how high the price can punch over the next few days. But still, there is this China thing still hanging over Bitcoin like the sword of Damocles, provides me with reason to my inherent subconscious fear of Bitcoin in the short-medium term. People scream that China has been priced into the market, I retort that CNY transactions still accounts for 65% of exchange trades. They scream that these are fake robot trades! I retort, in that case don't be worried, be fkn horrified!

Your weakness is that the minute you read anything on China, your mind will get tired and disinterested because your rose tinted Bitcoin glasses have already dismissed the danger....

.....but 65% of current exchange trading are to come to a complete hault within 4 weeks, and you really think that this shouldn't be cause for concern!?

Bitcoin could easily see $1300 and $300 again before this month is out. With Bitcoin, anything is possible.

I'm talking about milestones now. I thought that was quite obvious. Is it not clear?

There'll be a media flash. There was when it last got to an ounce of gold. Bitcoin is much more in the media now; it wasn't so earlier. That's what I'm saying. Is that unclear in my post also?

hm, why was it no milestone when 1btc hit the price of one gramm of gold? Or one grain? What is it with one kg of gold? It might have psychological effects but you comparing just to random units.

Let's talk again when Bitcoin has the market cap of gold. Bitcoin is not even close to gold, not even 1%.

MatTheCat although we all have our understanding of things we all have blind spots - feel free to tell me what you think mine is as it can only help me! - and yours is that you are slightly too trigger-happy! I hope you don't mind me saying.

Yup.

China still accounting for 65% of trade and they are still set for official Bitcoin shut-down at end of month....

..WhAt HaPpEnS nExT? DUH DUH DAH!

(I am in Bitcoin..been trading on the way up from low 700s and bought 15 coins at $835, and another 11 at $900, but as ever, will be keeping a damn watchful eye on charts and am ready to pull the trigger on the whole lot...think we will be good for $1000 on Bitstamp at least anyhow...there is quite a lot of momentum going and a lot of market memory being rekindled here)

FTFY

It is insane, however, I am playing with house money and the non-technical factors are all screaming that the ship is leaving the station.

Imagine how small Bitcoin investment dollars really are in the relative world of capital investment. 10 billion dollars is less than dozens and dozens of stupid stocks that don't even pay dividends or have any benefits other than a speculative long term holding play, and you think Bitcoin right now, TODAY isn't worth 10 times that in potential alone.

Crypto currencies will not be like the stock market, there will be a dominant player and a half dozen minor players. It will be a trillion dollar market in five years.

As I said already in the post, we may well keep popping up as proposed by Hellork, I think to a new ATH, but then of course expect a probable return but not far relatively. By the end of next week $950 - $1000 will be the launch pad, no lower.

Actually I would prefer it if Bitcoin takes it "easy" this week at around +$20 per day!

You guys realize that this is INSANE again right? Huge correction waits...

We break gold easily mid-week.

Get ready to watch the media circus begin! 

Remember: $1000 is history, 2013, forget it. This was the last weekend of Bitcoin at $1,000. It was nice to share it with you all! 

My green line represents my view of a more or less a sensible angle for the beginning of 2014 and beyond*. I think you will see strong support along a line of this angle if people panic in 2014. But I also think that panic should die down as new confidence, based more firmly on the "real world" now and not just on speculation, is seeping into the market.

I cannot tell exactly where there will be sudden purchases of thousands of BTC hence spikes upward, but I am taking my short-term cue for the red line from the analyst I quote, but betting the odds are actually on right now that it will happen next week.

It is logical to suppose that at the previous ATH there could be another explosion. But I am getting the suspicion that despite everyone's love of round numbers and previous figures, it is difficult to call exactly when boosts will happen. This is compounded by the fact that exchanges are relatively inefficient at the moment, building up the steam of demand on one side, and we cannot tell in what bursts this steam will be released.

*Edit: Although of course an utter catastrophe could still in theory happen in which case obviously the green line would not be relevant, but on the other hand, and I think more intriguingly, the S-curve shape that people have been mentioning could come into play, meaning much steeper climb. Obviously this would require viral adoption and an explosion in the real Bitcoin economy, IMO.

Sorry maybe it wasn't clear!
I expected the green line to change at around previous ATH / price of an ounce of gold.

Sorry, excuse me but could you please be a bit more clear? All I see is uptrends on my graphs! 

Thanks! I do believe we may be close in viewpoint over China. In my post I am making the case that in real terms (technology, business growth, etc.) China dropping out would not be a problem for Bitcoin at such an early stage as each and every country in which Bitcoin can exist is still like a vast, unexplored playground. But psychologically yes - we are still fragile over China.

But if we keep talking realistically and try to keep human nature - fear, hope, etc. - in check (very difficult I know!) and instead trust in the nature of virality (which any Internet enthusiast has already seen for themselves through numerous real-world examples) and in our own common sense, we will get over China sooner or later like you say.

Yes very nice post indeed, my only question, why in you graph the upward trend starts at $1000 and not at ~$1250?

While this is true, I don't think the West is leading the market right now. China is still leading with Huobi. While the rest of the world has prevented a worse crash and we probably inspired renewed confidence in China, it does look like Huobi/China has taken over the lead again. If something happens to Huobi the market will probably drop hard again, maybe not as hard as before but it will easily drop 30% when that happens. Eventually bitcoin will cut itself loose from China like it cut itself loose from MtGox dominance but we aren't there yet imo, it takes some more time. I'm not a doomsday preacher at all, but I don't think we should paint our glasses too rosy here.

Besides that nice report from one of the most bullish posters on this forum.

Thank you very much! 

Enjoyable commentary - thanks!

What a weekend!

But it's “just” a weekend and all Hodlers out there need to prepare themselves for what is to come.

I think it is important to look at the two next key prices we are fast approaching:

$1,000

“$1,000 isn't cool...”

Please excuse my Justin Timberlake paraphrase but it does seem pertinent considering what a bullish weekend we have been seeing.

We have been there before and we have been well above there before also, for a significant period of time.

I don't think you would be able to find too many people on this forum – bulls and bears alike – who think that Bitcoin should be underneath $1,000 for much longer.

In fact, once we get above $1,000, we don't really ever want to go back underneath again.

Just remember this as you watch $1,000 go by while riding the train. It is a 2013 milestone – nothing to do with 2014 at all. Forget it.

+/- $1,240 (price of an ounce of gold)

At the end of 2013 we just scraped the price of an ounce of gold, a very significant event and not a coincidence. This price is hugely important.

Gold has been an integral part of human culture thousands of years. It is more established than fiat currency. It holds huge psychological sway. This cannot be underestimated.

The history of gold is incredible. Few cultures have not held gold as something precious. Some of the most recognisable artefacts of ancient history are made of gold (Tutankhamen’s mask). Empires have been invaded for the sake of gold (the Incas).

Technically speaking we can of course easily get past the price of an ounce of gold. But as we go past make no mistake, it is a hugely significant event in the eyes of the world and will cause many more waves of media coverage.

Once past the price of gold we also don't ever want to see that price again. It's going to drop away.

China

Last and certainly not least (perhaps “most” in fact) when we move past the price of gold we also move past the top of the previous bubble, the “China bubble”, which was strongly linked to Chinese influence. For the Bitcoin community this is probably the most important early 2014 milestone. We are leading China now and don't forget it. If at some stage China goes out of the game then it makes sense to think there will be a certain effect on the market. But in an ideal world if this effect was truly to mirror the problem China dropping out would cause Bitcoin, then the charts should really show nothing stronger than a blip. Remember this: Bitcoin has vast territory to grow into outside of China. Vast territory and myriad business and financial dimensions that are so far almost utterly untapped.

Speed

At regular intervals this weekend we have been picking up dizzying speed. There are also signs that volume is starting to turn.

A couple of days ago I posted two charts and made some comments:

Here is the thread but I will post the charts again below https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/early-2014-397534





It looks very much like we are preparing to break sharply upwards (towards f on top chart and red line on bottom chart) as the technical analyst Hellork proposed with a tiny 1:100 chance of happening.

A note: for all the terminology “stochastic volume”, “fib”, “wedges” and “new moons”, as soon as I read Hellork's chart and analysis I felt confident taking on the pro's stance even at his odds of 1:100. Read the other thread for my reasons but I will summarise three of them with bullet points here:

- viral growth and media coverage
- bottlenecks at exchanges building up pressure
- increasing confidence as we move out of the earliest stages of early adoption

The long and short of it is this: traditional TA has been useful in the past and in some circumstances but right now it is often not working correctly due to the difficulty of factoring in the above bullet points and more. More than ever before it is possible for the average non-specialist to get ahead simply through their own efforts. Some time reading up, a cool head and common sense will get you as far as you need to go.

Next week is going to be interesting but one small word of warning. If we do explode upwards then it becomes more likely that at some point this may become unsustainable. In real terms this will be strongly linked to the effects of bottlenecks at the exchanges. In other words don't panic! Look for some kind of retracement to the green line* on the second chart above.

Hodling

I have proposed in previous posts that Hodling is having a profound effect on the market. I also said that as it becomes possible to spend Bitcoins it would be helpful to the economy to spend some (this is in fact still Hodling – Hodling Bitcoins in the Bitcoin economy and not cashing them out).

But for the next days and weeks a straightforward cold storage option may be required. No over-excitement about reaching $1,000 again, and absolutely no wavering when sailing past the price of gold.

*Although some may find it too steep and some may find it too slow, my projected green line would take Bitcoin to a ballpark figure of around $5,000 at the end of 2014, a figure considered conservative by quite a few people. If an S-curve becomes more apparent this green line could get steeper. If there is some bad news then it could get shallower. But 99% of us (minus a few trolls ) agree it is going significantly up this year. As it keeps going volatility on the log scale is likely to keep decreasing. Don't forget this!