What affect do you think will the block halving have on mining profit?

mrhelpful

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Quote from: justspare on June 20, 2016, 06:02:53 AM

The block halving is going to have a small impact on the mining profit. There might be a couple of people that stop mining, but the reward is still relatively high.

Its high for those who are able to fork out some serious cash.

Those of us who arent willing to do the associated risk, are left out obviously. But in my eyes, its better to take less risk and focus other things to still get you the # of bitcoins that create fiat sales.

And still be in the game close to without mining it.

BryanC

newbie

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In looking at all the variables, I must be missing something.
Variables:
- Hash rate
- Difficulty
- Hardware cost
- Electricity cost
- Block reward
- BTC to fiat currency exchange rate

If all of the existing trends hold true (except for the BTC exchange rate - that cannot continue) I don't see how any of the hardware currently on the market (including the S9) could ever pay for itself. With the continually increasing difficulty/hashrate, a S9 would never pay for itself (unless you have free electricity, and even then you will have a LONG road). After the halving, your S7 is going to make less than a dollar a day, with decreasing profitability. An S9 will make under $7/day on day 1 ($0.11/kWh). The potential exists for a new S9 to never pay for itself.

The way I see it, the only potential mitigations are that transaction fees increase dramatically, or a lot of hardware is shut off. I MUST be missing something, because it doesn't make any sense. If the profit margin becomes razor thin, only ~~large~~ huge operators will survive, and you have the potential very quickly for two operators to collude on a 51% attack.

I'm really open to being corrected here, as people are still buying hardware, so they must see something I don't.

Quote from: Lethn on June 19, 2016, 09:03:57 AM

http://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

So I was interested in hearing peoples' perspectives on what they think will happen on block halving day ( I'm actually excited about it -_- Cheesy

) my own personal theory is that the price of Bitcoin itself and the fees from the trading volume rising so much will actually balance everything out and miners will either make the same as they did before or perhaps more because trade volume isn't limited in the way that block rewards are. What do you think will happen? Do you think I'm right? Do you think maybe we'll see a severe drop short term? Give me your reasoning, it's just interesting seeing the panic around block halving because we've seen all the hysteria surrounding ASICs and Scrypt mining and so on which makes me wonder if people aren't overreacting to the whole thing.

amacar2

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Quote from: DuckKeeper on June 20, 2016, 09:17:57 AM

I dont think it would affect the bitcoin price it will only affect the small miners because it will only affect them the halving. Bigger miners will make profit but smaller amounts.

Even bigger miners may get suffered use the mining calculator and you will see how much you could earn with one antminer s7 in one day, its 8$ around and deducting electricity cost and halving that value to 4$ will give 2 OR 3$ max daily profit and to recover antminer cost it will take more than year if those miner keep running. I don't know what better mining device those big miners use but i found s7 most recently developed and efficient available on internet.

yayayo

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Well, this question is easy to answer if you only look at the very moment at which the halving takes places: The mining profit from new blocks will be cut in half. Cheesy

However with every halving, the importance of transaction fees will increase. So the reduced block rewards are likely to be partially offset by an higher total amount of transaction fees per block. At the same block size, fee pressure will increase somewhat. However I consider this effect at the current halving to be still very small.

I think overall, mining profitability will see a drop. New mining chips might ease this effect a bit, however I'm quite sure that the competition among miners will get more fierce. As a result, supplementary use cases for mining operations could be incentivized. For example using the excess heat for heating purposes.

ya.ya.yo!

DuckKeeper

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I dont think it would affect the bitcoin price it will only affect the small miners because it will only affect them the halving. Bigger miners will make profit but smaller amounts.

helloeverybody

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I Beleive mining profits will still be profitable, now that all alts are down in price bitcoin is the only sensible coin for people to buy and hold. Miners will keep on mining and selling at a new higher price. Should be win win for everyone. A new floor will have been created.

justspare

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The block halving is going to have a small impact on the mining profit. There might be a couple of people that stop mining, but the reward is still relatively high.

Jmild1

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Quote from: Lethn on June 19, 2016, 09:03:57 AM

http://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

So I was interested in hearing peoples' perspectives on what they think will happen on block halving day ( I'm actually excited about it -_- Cheesy

) my own personal theory is that the price of Bitcoin itself and the fees from the trading volume rising so much will actually balance everything out and miners will either make the same as they did before or perhaps more because trade volume isn't limited in the way that block rewards are. What do you think will happen? Do you think I'm right? Do you think maybe we'll see a severe drop short term? Give me your reasoning, it's just interesting seeing the panic around block halving because we've seen all the hysteria surrounding ASICs and Scrypt mining and so on which makes me wonder if people aren't overreacting to the whole thing.

I think that it is really kind of overacting because I think many people doesn't still know what will really happen in the event and they are just following the fomo that surrounds them.

Lethn

legendary

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I've been experimenting with Bitcoin for a long time, but I just wanted to see what the more long term and professional members here thought, we've had a halving before apparently and it didn't change much so I suspect this will be like all the other stuff where it's all hysteria and no substance as usual from the people making claims about Bitcoin.

I hope I'm right and the market will simply re-adjust itself for the block halving as it seems to be doing but I am quite wary considering how substantial the reward drop is.

fravia

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Quote from: Lethn on June 19, 2016, 09:03:57 AM

http://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

So I was interested in hearing peoples' perspectives on what they think will happen on block halving day ( I'm actually excited about it -_- Cheesy

) my own personal theory is that the price of Bitcoin itself and the fees from the trading volume rising so much will actually balance everything out and miners will either make the same as they did before or perhaps more because trade volume isn't limited in the way that block rewards are. What do you think will happen? Do you think I'm right? Do you think maybe we'll see a severe drop short term? Give me your reasoning, it's just interesting seeing the panic around block halving because we've seen all the hysteria surrounding ASICs and Scrypt mining and so on which makes me wonder if people aren't overreacting to the whole thing.

Honestly i agree with you on this one, it is fun watching the mayhem come from the community surrounding this event, however i think it's well justified mayhem regardless of how entertaining it is to watch the wild speculations
Really i think that bitcoin mining will remain pretty static because of the reasons you've mentioned, i mean i'm no expert but you seem to have covered most bases

Lethn

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Activity: 1540

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http://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

So I was interested in hearing peoples' perspectives on what they think will happen on block halving day ( I'm actually excited about it -_- Cheesy

) my own personal theory is that the price of Bitcoin itself and the fees from the trading volume rising so much will actually balance everything out and miners will either make the same as they did before or perhaps more because trade volume isn't limited in the way that block rewards are. What do you think will happen? Do you think I'm right? Do you think maybe we'll see a severe drop short term? Give me your reasoning, it's just interesting seeing the panic around block halving because we've seen all the hysteria surrounding ASICs and Scrypt mining and so on which makes me wonder if people aren't overreacting to the whole thing.

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