Topic: What are possible scenarios for the block halving? (Read 4444 times)

I think that the price should increase or there will be a "hard" crash.
Because the mining farms does not have a good profit if the block reward is 50% less.
The price normally should be increased to keep all parties good.

I'm pretty confident that the price will rise fairly significantly. Probably close to double what it is now, maybe more.
It's been par for the course so far in bitcoins lifespan.

Block halving will cause the rise in prices of Bitcoin that will be normal increase not some extra ordinary.This will happen to cover the expanses of mining so this time this increase will be sure.Mining is must thing to secure and stabilize the network and there will not be dumping in my opinion.

I don't really think that halving is going to do much. Look at litecoin.

Scenario: miners get 1/2 as much BTC, overnight. They are not going to sell for less. Supply shock. BOOM.

Everyone said it was priced in before the 50->25 halving too, and we remember what happened.

every 1/2 I have seen seen to be to have the price discounted/accounted in before the 1/2 ing and so drops a bit after.

Pretty much every economist since the 14th century?

Or just too much coin being made (ie where the heck is the LTC diff coming from with no new equip being made? er a mass rush from alts to LTC  or (LTC) vs use by speculators in China just where it is at and hey thats all we need to ahem go sideways some more and it all could just hang together and price etc continue to go 'sideways' as well

seems sideways is the new normal for btc and ltc (just saying) (head hurts)

Demand still the same but bitcoins generated cut in half should boost the price if all else is the same.

Except they start to save now and don't sell all immediately.
Could be the case for a few of the more profitable mining companies.

they cannot sell more than they mine

not more than what they are selling today anyway, i doubt they are selling less than 1800 coins per day, after the halving at best they can sell that amount

if this is the case, we would get, roughly the same price with the halving, minus the initial hype that will create a relatively strong pump

Either difficulty will drop as mining will become profitable for users or 16nm will be available to the masses, making mining profitable and the price would rise due to the limited supply per day.

less experienced traders don't do or at least don't do enough research of the thing they invest in. they just see dollar signs. the group that caused the ltc price to reach $8 surely made millions.

But, if demand is greater than the supply of the most cost efficient miners, price will have to rise.That would be the only outcome I see.

If they already sell most of their coins and the halving would make it unprofitable and thereby forced to shut down.  That isn't a good scenario as well.

The rise in LTC was caused by a chinese ponzi. https://www.reddit.com/r/litecoin/comments/3ecwtq/collapse_of_chinese_ltc_ponzi/
The main reason was NOT the halving.

Assuming they don't already sell most of their coins.But no one really seems to know what % of coins are held by miners in hope of future gains.If we knew that, then it would be easy to make a prediction for the 2016 halving.

Miners would have to sell more as the rewards are less to maintain their operations.

Yeah the price will rise up in that scenario.

Yeah demand is needed for increase the price but halving is important too. I guess that both it's like symbiotic mutualism

Follwing the previews trenda bitcoin is increased when it got halved from 50 to 25 so i am pretty sure it's simple supply and demand..Supply will be halved next hear(12 bitcoins each block) so we can expect increase in the bitcoin as many of us wants it
but yes some miners can quit mining because of high difficulty in mining and less reward but i think it won't affect bitcoin network and price at all as there are so much miners and miner farms that are performing mining continuously

Bitcoin will be more known to other people and if this happens then price will increase. That s whats going to happen.

During last halving, many people already exhausted their hash power on GPUs due to difficulty rise, and the effect of reward drop was quite significant, so that many people are forced to shutdown, leave mining to those who have free electricity and FPGA

Similarly, after next reward halving, only those with free electricity or high efficient rigs will stay online

However, the arriving of ASIC miner also happened around the same time frame during last halving. Just one months following the halving, ASIC miner and Avalon delivered their mining equipment and caused a panic buy around the world, raised the bitcoin price by 10x

But this time this kind of leap in mining technology is no longer possible(a quantum miner is still decades if not centuries away). So the anticipated change in mining landscape is limited, thus the price might not get a huge boost

From daily coin supply point of view though, the reduce in daily coin supply is still significant (next time it will have less impact). Suppose that the daily coin supply on market is 5000 coins (including cashing out from previous holders), where 1800 coins are contributed from mining (suppose miners hold 50% of their coins), the reward halving will reduce that figure to 900 coins, thus cut daily coin supply on market by about 18%, so a price rise of 18% is still likely

Historically the price goes up fairly significantly as a result of block reward halvings. It's pretty simple & should 'in theory' be repeated again -

Less supply + More demand = Increase in price.

The supply of Bitcoins is all Bitcoins available for sale. Bitcoin is about 2/3 mined already. There's no shortage of Bitcoins for sale on the exchanges.

I don't agree with your post. When you look at LTC charts, the LTC price increased BEFORE the halving like crazy to 8 USD...from 1.25 USD...Now it is at 3.00 USD...so from my view the LTC halving doubled the price

The trouble is the demand for coins isnt really that high at the moment. Hopefully there will be some good news before the halving which will get bitcoin some mainstream attention but without it I don't think bitcoin will rise much.

it is all going to be about the supply and demand. the demand was high enough that it was able to keep the price at this level for a long time. and in the future if this doesn't change and also goes higher, and additionally none of the whales decide to dump a sudden big amount on the market I think the price can easily start going up to > $300 and higher from there on.

 Well by halving in august 2016 lets say difficulty doubles....and now the halving ....which means

 the price will still be at 250 or so and 'sideways' (its how btc rolls now)

(damn that is a depressing couple of lines there above...scared myself)

We know that the block reward will decrease from 25 to 12.5 BTC per block, and it's reasonable to assume that rational miners not only also know this, but have factored it into their ROI calculations.

We know what the new supply of BTC will be each block - it'll be 12.5 after the block reward halves. What we don't know, but can attempt to extrapolate from current data, is non-new supply - long-term holders (for example) converting BTC to fiat, the vendor of those exciting new ACME widgets (which are only sold for BTC) needing to convert BTC to fiat to pay their suppliers, short-term speculators needing to close long positions, etc. We also don't know - but can attempt to extrapolate, guess, whatever - what demand will be like (people buying ACME widgets will create demand, etc).

tl;dr - it's all down to supply and demand. Do your best to calculate what will happen to supply after the halving, and to demand after the halving, and you have as good an answer as anybody else! Anything else is just noise, people's wild-assed guesses, predictions based on something that happened once before, etc.

Bitcoin value is mainly psychological. I expect many people will start panic buying if they see the price start to rise near the halving which I expect it will. This can have a knock on effect too.


How do you know? Maybe due to the lower supply of bitcoins the price may rise?

Since it's a known future event, the halving should not affect the price.

Mining activity, though, sees a big cut in revenue, and some miners are going to drop out. Miners presumably have run spreadsheets and know what gear goes to negative ROI after the halving, and will presumably have planned things so it more than paid for itself well before the cutoff date.

i think next year because of block halving and most importantly because of the expectation of price increase the bitcoin price would go up at least around the time for the halving. but later on if the demand stays up the price would stay up and the mining would continue.

The most likely scenario for the halving event would be a short to mid range price increase since the supply would be cut to half.

Because all the mining hardware currently running near break-even gets taken offline & becomes available/useful only for 51% attack?
And forget about "decreased supply."  Supply is constantly increasing, it is the # of BTC mined to date. Also, speculative demand don't fit into the price/demand equation like you think it do.  

My guess:

There will be a speculative hype about 3-4 months before the halving date. If there are no fundamental problems, then in this period the price should go up, at least 50%. (Take into account that we still don't know if we've reached the bottom. It can also go from 100 to 150 USD )

Then, about the halving date, we will see a downward price movement. The dunp after the pump.

What happens next after this dump, in my opinion, depends on the fundamentals. So if adoption is going on, then it can be bullish, otherwise bearish. Or sideways

Miners cash out? Miners always cash out that how they make their money. One of only two things will likely happen: either nothing or the price will rise. Can't see any reason why it would go down.

ROI will be lower, maybe miners companies will do a big pump

Yes, at the moment it all points out that the price should increase around the next halving. what will happen in the end and how will market dynamics work out it will be seen.

Halving is not the only thing that should work out for the Bitcoin price next year. I expect that in 2016 the long awaited ETFs and Gemini exchange see the light of the day. Also the block size increase should be solved and this should regain the confidence into Bitcoin as well.

If demand in the markets stays the same as it is now or it raises a bit, the price of Bitcoin will be higher. If demand should decrease maybe nothing will change and price still will be in $200 range.

miners will not leave they can earn profit at least for two other halving, with the current efficiency, so we are safe from that point of view

the price will increase almost for sure, unless some major thing will put a dent on bitcoin before the halving

Same speculation here, BTC price might increase from 25% to 40% as the demand for it dictates. And I dont think as well that mining will slow down as we reached the halving phase.

I also see rise in price after the halving of blocks.Someone respected member stated above about LTC 's halving I will just say there is no comparison between BTC and LTC.One is original and other is simply cope.Rise in price is sure with or without halving in next years.

If the demand is the same as right now price will go up. If the prices go up a lot ($200), it can be the start of a new bubble because the appearing of bitcoin in the mass media.

Theoretically there would be an upward pressure for price to increase but that is provided that demand remains the same at its current level. But as I've said earlier there are just too many scenarios that could happen and things could just took an unexpected turn. You can just put forward the assumption that miners will shut off their machine as they are unable to remain profitable but don't forget others miners could still fill that vacant slot. Whatever it is I hope volatility will somehow reduce and we could see a more stable price.

If demand is high enough, prices will increase quite dramatically.

However, if it is low, prices will decrease even more and miners would decrease their investments in their rigs because it won't be as profitable.

Demand keeps dropping, halving can't come soon enough just to keep us where we are......

it seems to me that people who think the price will go up would logically be buying more now ie they are getting cheaper coins now that the future. That inflates demand a little and maybe moves the current price up a little.

But when halving comes (because of the above) demand should less than normal/now. it may be that lower demand roughly matches the lower increase in supply so there is no major price movement.  

Just becasue the rate a new bitcoins arriving to be bought drops does not mean there is a 'shortage' for buyers and so they push the price up in a bidding war.

I think demand is so weak you may see little change

I think there could very well be another round of FOMO similar to 2013. Now only 12.5 coins per 10 minutes instead of 25!! When we have huge sell offs people panic and over sell, when we have the big rises people go crazy and over buy in fear of missing out.

Not entirely true. About 2 months before the LTC halving, in June/July, LTC price rocketed up to $15 from $2. After the halving, LTC price has settled at around $2.80 currently.

I can foresee BTC behaving the same way, just in different numbers$$$.

im thinking price should go up, but no one can really be sure

Well for one, Litecoin is shit.

The LTC halving didn't rase the price at all in fact it continued to go down, why was that?
How would the BTC halving differ from the LTC halving?

Nobody know what will happen. There are of course different scenarios. Bitcoin price might jump upwards and majority is expecting this scenario.

It might happen that nothing will happen since the halving has already been anticipated and calculated into the current Bitcoin's price.

It might happen that some miners will shut down their machines since they will become unprofitable. I don't see this as a problem since we already have more than enough and even too much of the hashrate so if this drop happens, no biggie.

it's very difficult to compare the previous halving with the one comming in juli 2016. the market cap back then was nothing compared to now. bitcoin's userbase has grown and there is much more merchant adoption. don't think any one knows exactly what will happen.

I just see halving of block to increase the price of Bitcoin.After halving the minimum price of Bitcoin should be at least 350$ which will be cost effective for miners.So we should expect more high prices than this one.

up up up

with LTC nothing happened after halving so not sure

I think the price will go up quite a bit. maybe about 30% or so. but I'm trying to block so many bad thoughts in my mind so who knows.

Less than many are hoping for is my guess.

We could have a new bubble that goes to $1300 again. And then another 2 year bear market.

Well, that sums up everything pretty well


Here see this:

Source: http://cryptocoinblog.com/what-is-the-halving-effect-in-bitcoin-mining-investments/

There are two options:

- Something will happen.
- Nothing will happen.

What happened after the first halving price wise? I wasn't around back then. Whatever happened then will most likely happen again?

the price might go up maybe 25%-50% at most a few months before the actual halving. the most interesting thing will happen after the halving has taken place. that's when we know what the real effect is on the price. at this point people can only guess.

i thought the same. at-least 150% will go up.

Price will double if demand stays exactly the same. Most likely demand will increase before the halving though.

IMO, it depends. If everything goes normally and the miners don't shut off their mining equipment, Then the supply of coins will decrease by half.

Less supply + More Demand = Increase in price.


Correct me if i am wrong.

Edit: I speculate the price to go up at least by 150%

Bitcoin would only slow down for 2 weeks if miners dropped off in one massive block.

Most people are speculating a price rise.

1. Why would miners cash out because of halving?
2. Why would blockchain slow down? There will still be one block on 10min.
3. Supply and demand. Currently there is enough demand to keep the price above 230$... With BTC ecosystem growing each day I doubt there will be less demand.

What things could happen with the btc price when the block halving occurs? will the price go down due to miners cashing out? or will the block chain slow down due to miners shutting off their mining equipment? will the price go up because of less daily bitcoin created? what will likely happen?