What are the chances to get a 13+ losing streak?

Superhitech

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Quote from: ndnh on August 13, 2016, 06:24:24 AM

Quote from: zacc255 on August 12, 2016, 09:12:42 PM

Hi guys, does anyone here knows what are the mathematical chances to get a 13+ losing streak playing dice with 50% chances of winning? Or how you can calculate it?

The probability of a losing streak of 13 at 50% win chance is 0.5^13 = 0.00012207031 or 0.012207031% or once every 8192 rolls.

I didn't realize the odds were that low, funny that it happens to me often Sad

Quote from: jacee on August 12, 2016, 09:23:51 PM

Quote from: zacc255 on August 12, 2016, 09:12:42 PM

Hi guys, does anyone here knows what are the mathematical chances to get a 13+ losing streak playing dice with 50% chances of winning? Or how you can calculate it?

I don't know how you calculate it but based on my experience, there is a higher odds of getting a loosing streak if you have a higher bet. Most I have encountered is 12 red streak.

I think this is more of a psychological thing; I've also found that it seems like when you bet higher, you lose more. However, the sites are provably fair; they can't do this. It's all in the mind, as we tend to care more about our bet when the amount we bet is higher.

Either way, OP, if you were trying to find the odds to try and make a profit off dice, I'd advise against it, as the house always wins in the long run.

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Quote from: deadlyunknown on August 13, 2016, 11:50:03 AM

Quote from: Daffadile on August 13, 2016, 10:54:13 AM

Quote from: zacc255 on August 12, 2016, 09:12:42 PM

Hi guys, does anyone here knows what are the mathematical chances to get a 13+ losing streak playing dice with 50% chances of winning? Or how you can calculate it?

Read this : https://wizardofodds.com/image/ask-the-wizard/streaks.pdf

So 13x in a row means 1 to the power of 2 13x =

Number of roll :1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13.
Odds of roll " 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2048 4096

So your odds of 13x loses in a row are 1/4096

or 0.025%

Maybe this percentage will grant the site owner some large sums of cash. This will be a celebration for the owner.

Yes is will. The percentage this happens is very low but remember it could go the other way around just as easily (well it should) if the house is fair.
Though it is very less likely someone will bet a larger amount this many times in a row so the likeliness that the 13x loses in a row will far outweigh 13x wins in a row based on the fact people wont go all in that many times.

deadlyunknown

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Quote from: Daffadile on August 13, 2016, 10:54:13 AM

Quote from: zacc255 on August 12, 2016, 09:12:42 PM

Hi guys, does anyone here knows what are the mathematical chances to get a 13+ losing streak playing dice with 50% chances of winning? Or how you can calculate it?

Read this : https://wizardofodds.com/image/ask-the-wizard/streaks.pdf

So 13x in a row means 1 to the power of 2 13x =

Number of roll :1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13.
Odds of roll " 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2048 4096

So your odds of 13x loses in a row are 1/4096

or 0.025%

Maybe this percentage will grant the site owner some large sums of cash. This will be a celebration for the owner.

newcripto

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You can not calculate how and when these loosing streaks will appear because you are not playing alone. The script calculate the number generally by taking in consideration total number of bets played by all active players. This is what mess up things and any player can have many times loosing streaks in a row. Exact or near percentage may be possible if you were alone rolling dice in my understanding.

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Quote from: zacc255 on August 12, 2016, 09:12:42 PM

Hi guys, does anyone here knows what are the mathematical chances to get a 13+ losing streak playing dice with 50% chances of winning? Or how you can calculate it?

Read this : https://wizardofodds.com/image/ask-the-wizard/streaks.pdf

So 13x in a row means 1 to the power of 2 13x =

Number of roll :1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13.
Odds of roll " 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2048 4096

So your odds of 13x loses in a row are 1/4096

or 0.025%

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Quote from: zacc255 on August 12, 2016, 09:12:42 PM

Hi guys, does anyone here knows what are the mathematical chances to get a 13+ losing streak playing dice with 50% chances of winning? Or how you can calculate it?

well actually if you calculate it, 50% meaning you will loss 1 out of 2 bet but dice doesnt go that way, i don't know how they calculate it but it is 50% chance in my opinion that you will have this kind of streak, but there is this called house edge, which give more chance for the 13 straight loss. as stated in here

Quote from: BTCLovingDude on August 13, 2016, 10:08:10 AM

Quote from: zacc255 on August 12, 2016, 09:12:42 PM

Hi guys, does anyone here knows what are the mathematical chances to get a 13+ losing streak playing dice with 50% chances of winning? Or how you can calculate it?

i am not good at math and besides ndnh has already done the math but what i know based on my personal experience with playing dice for a long time is that : this losing streak of 13 reds and even more in 20-30 reds in a row will surely happen to you one day when playing at 50% chance and there is no escape from it.

and knowing this is enough for me to alter my strategy to have more fun and maybe win a little bit more.

there is real and it happen almost every day. that is if the bankroll of the player can hold such huge lossing streak.

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Quote from: zacc255 on August 12, 2016, 09:12:42 PM

Hi guys, does anyone here knows what are the mathematical chances to get a 13+ losing streak playing dice with 50% chances of winning? Or how you can calculate it?

i am not good at math and besides ndnh has already done the math but what i know based on my personal experience with playing dice for a long time is that : this losing streak of 13 reds and even more in 20-30 reds in a row will surely happen to you one day when playing at 50% chance and there is no escape from it.

and knowing this is enough for me to alter my strategy to have more fun and maybe win a little bit more.

Shinpako09

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Quote from: btcdevil on August 13, 2016, 04:38:00 AM

I had my bad experience with bustabit.com site where i was in 2 odds and i went from 0.01 to 0.8btc due to greedy i did not stop and the autobot was running in midnight when i was sleep they went till 32 red streak and i lost all my bankroll including my investment also. So it was lesson for me to not run the autobot just play for some time and come out if you are in winning. so their are full chances of red streak if you are playing continuously.

That was a nice run only if you withdraw. If I were you I wont leave autobot running. I will keep my eye on the screen. Anyway, your right the chance of getting a long streak will become higher if you play continously.

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Quote from: zacc255 on August 12, 2016, 09:12:42 PM

Hi guys, does anyone here knows what are the mathematical chances to get a 13+ losing streak playing dice with 50% chances of winning? Or how you can calculate it?

Well, it's a bit hard to count that. I mean, every people always not same in the chance to get a 13+ losing streak playing dice. What i'm sure is the chance become increase if you doubling your bet.

maku

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While occurrence of multiple same outcomes in a row seems impossible after couple rolls. After 7 rolls your probability is lowered to 0.0078125 (less than 1%).
But it is not impossible to witness amazing 'coincidences' like that historical Monte Carlo Casino occurrence - in a game of roulette the ball fell in black 26 times in a row.

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Quote from: zacc255 on August 12, 2016, 09:12:42 PM

Hi guys, does anyone here knows what are the mathematical chances to get a 13+ losing streak playing dice with 50% chances of winning? Or how you can calculate it?

for my experience for me i always use my to follow my guts where i bet low everytime i win because in playing theres no assurance that you are going to win in every other round it always luck if you choose the right way sometime the losing steak is up to 16 plus if you playing dice make sure that you dont greed all your money because you will get nothing.

NorrisK

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Quote from: Blitzboy on August 13, 2016, 06:59:06 AM

Honestly you dont need to calculate it because dice game is base on luck there is no strategy in dice game.
This is just like coin flip that base on luck, you are just wasting your time to calculate the winning streak or losing streak..

The whole game of gambling is about odds and you say you don't need to calculate your odds? That's the worst advise I ever read..

The numbers to hit a 13+ streak have been presented here, but they are only relevant if you want to bet specifically on hitting a 13+ streak.

The odds per roll remain 50% so every bet you make has a 50% chance of winning. These odds only become relevant when you want to calculati your a priori chance of hitting such a streak.

Blitzboy

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Honestly you dont need to calculate it because dice game is base on luck there is no strategy in dice game.
This is just like coin flip that base on luck, you are just wasting your time to calculate the winning streak or losing streak..

buddu

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I also have lost once or twice having more than 13 loosing streaks in a row though chances are very low but this can happen to anyone as many players are active same time. You may be that unlucky to this can appear over and over again. We make mistake we go purely based on mathematical calculation in fact gambling doesn't follow any strict rules. I have seen with 62.5% winning chances 5 loosing streaks but later continuous winning streaks made balance in streaks appearance.

xuan87

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If you plan to use this mathematical and then try to play it on dice site, i will suggest you to not try it, every roll possessed the same winning and lose chance which is 50%, so no need to do complex calculation, you are going to lose your game and it has been proven by most gambler that they have lost more than 13 times in streak and for my self i have lost 15 times in streak

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Quote from: zacc255 on August 12, 2016, 09:12:42 PM

Hi guys, does anyone here knows what are the mathematical chances to get a 13+ losing streak playing dice with 50% chances of winning? Or how you can calculate it?

The probability of a losing streak of 13 at 50% win chance is 0.5^13 = 0.00012207031 or 0.012207031% or once every 8192 rolls.

Quote from: jacee on August 12, 2016, 09:23:51 PM

Quote from: zacc255 on August 12, 2016, 09:12:42 PM

Hi guys, does anyone here knows what are the mathematical chances to get a 13+ losing streak playing dice with 50% chances of winning? Or how you can calculate it?

I don't know how you calculate it but based on my experience, there is a higher odds of getting a loosing streak if you have a higher bet. Most I have encountered is 12 red streak.

Unless you are playing at 999dice, yobit dice or any other not provably fair and possibly rigged dice sites, no.

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Quote from: maxhor on August 13, 2016, 05:28:35 AM

I think 13+ losing streak is not so high to get worried about it with 50 win chance, some people got more higher losing streak with 2x payout, so many times I got 20+ losing streak by playing on dice game but it happening with martingale and which is bad strategy to play on dice site.

Unfortunately, the fact is that a long win streak can and will happen, and I usually drop out at a 5 streak. Cutting losses in gambling is difficult, and it's hard to even make short-term profit, but if you do it right, you'll lose a lot less than you would've lost going on a losing train.

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Quote from: pedrog on August 13, 2016, 04:30:44 AM

The probability is 100%, it will eventually happen as your number of rolls increase, if you make enough rolls you will get a 1000 losing streak, it's an inevitability.

if every roll is not related with the roll before you can also hit an infinite negative streak Sad

.

maxhor

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I think 13+ losing streak is not so high to get worried about it with 50 win chance, some people got more higher losing streak with 2x payout, so many times I got 20+ losing streak by playing on dice game but it happening with martingale and which is bad strategy to play on dice site.

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Quote from: Vinz24 on August 13, 2016, 04:23:02 AM

Based on my experience the last time I gamble, my loosing streak go up to 15 and its stops right there. Because I already loose all my investment, if not maybe it will go up to 20.

Lol that is so funny I think we should save ourselves all this technicality of understanding how this thing works. The most important rule in gambling should be adhered to in all circumstances and that is bet what you can afford to lose and save yourself in understanding what's behind me losing or winning... My opinion though...

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Quote from: btcdevil on August 13, 2016, 04:38:00 AM

I had my bad experience with bustabit.com site where i was in 2 odds and i went from 0.01 to 0.8btc due to greedy i did not stop and the autobot was running in midnight when i was sleep they went till 32 red streak and i lost all my bankroll including my investment also. So it was lesson for me to not run the autobot just play for some time and come out if you are in winning. so their are full chances of red streak if you are playing continuously.

You let the autobet running while asleep at midnight, sorry man but you almost deserve to lose what you did.
Expensive lesson to learn but it sounds like it was a lesson you had to learn.

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Quote from: pedrog on August 13, 2016, 04:30:44 AM

The probability is 100%, it will eventually happen as your number of rolls increase, if you make enough rolls you will get a 1000 losing streak, it's an inevitability.

Yeah true , the more you roll the dice you would receive that 13+ losing streak or even more soon. as peope who playing dice are not countable everytime you playing and roll it i guess it's impossible to calculate how much percentage you would receive a losing or winning streak it's just would turn to a 51-49 chance .

btcdevil

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I had my bad experience with bustabit.com site where i was in 2 odds and i went from 0.01 to 0.8btc due to greedy i did not stop and the autobot was running in midnight when i was sleep they went till 32 red streak and i lost all my bankroll including my investment also. So it was lesson for me to not run the autobot just play for some time and come out if you are in winning. so their are full chances of red streak if you are playing continuously.

Herbert2020

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Quote from: btckold24 on August 13, 2016, 04:18:09 AM

Quote from: Herbert2020 on August 13, 2016, 04:12:28 AM

Quote from: zacc255 on August 12, 2016, 09:12:42 PM

Hi guys, does anyone here knows what are the mathematical chances to get a 13+ losing streak playing dice with 50% chances of winning? Or how you can calculate it?

you are lucky to only have 13 losing streak playing dice with a 50% chance, i usually have more than 20 losing streaks and i bust out with my bankroll taking a big hit. and my record on losing streaks in dice with 50% chance is 29 reds in a row.

wow 29 reds in a row!! that is wild. This thread is exactly why I never like doing chase systems with sports or anything. Its to easy to
catch one bad streak and go bust

that is why Martingale strategy is considered a bad strategy in dice. because you always have a chance of seeing a big losing streak and because of that and the fact that your losses go up exponentially you end up losing a lot of money in the end.

pedrog

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The probability is 100%, it will eventually happen as your number of rolls increase, if you make enough rolls you will get a 1000 losing streak, it's an inevitability.

bithasher

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There is no working calculation which can exactly predict the ratio or chances of appearing 13 loosing streaks. What I have faced most of the times is 8 to 10 loosing streaks in a single sessions repeatedly. This is how software works it makes correction in ratio between winning and loosing streaks but this can be any time. You can be be sure at 50% chances to appear everything in order. You can expect even more than 13 loosing streaks in a session.

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Based on my experience the last time I gamble, my loosing streak go up to 15 and its stops right there. Because I already loose all my investment, if not maybe it will go up to 20.

mindrust

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I experienced it and trust me it hits you when you never expect it to happen.

You may even get 20+ losing streak. It is possible. Because every event has its own probability. It doesn't change anything if you lost 100 past games. You can still lose 101st.

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Quote from: Herbert2020 on August 13, 2016, 04:12:28 AM

Quote from: zacc255 on August 12, 2016, 09:12:42 PM

Hi guys, does anyone here knows what are the mathematical chances to get a 13+ losing streak playing dice with 50% chances of winning? Or how you can calculate it?

you are lucky to only have 13 losing streak playing dice with a 50% chance, i usually have more than 20 losing streaks and i bust out with my bankroll taking a big hit. and my record on losing streaks in dice with 50% chance is 29 reds in a row.

wow 29 reds in a row!! that is wild. This thread is exactly why I never like doing chase systems with sports or anything. Its to easy to
catch one bad streak and go bust

Herbert2020

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Quote from: zacc255 on August 12, 2016, 09:12:42 PM

Hi guys, does anyone here knows what are the mathematical chances to get a 13+ losing streak playing dice with 50% chances of winning? Or how you can calculate it?

you are lucky to only have 13 losing streak playing dice with a 50% chance, i usually have more than 20 losing streaks and i bust out with my bankroll taking a big hit. and my record on losing streaks in dice with 50% chance is 29 reds in a row.

HCP

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Quote from: equator on August 13, 2016, 02:12:18 AM

It is upto you what amount of bitcoins you are going to bet and what strategy are you using it, because as per your strategy the site will give red streak, if you are using martingale of odd 1.2 winnings then i think 13+ is also possible. It 100% chances of getting 13+ losing streak as the site is here to make money but not to donate money so the software is written the way that it will surely cross the mark of your loosing streak. If you are intelligent then you will stop the bet after 5th or 6th losing streak.

This is rubbish... They don't write the software so that you purposely lose. At least, not on "provably fair" sites. They don't have to.

Anyone who understands probability knows this. By simply not offering "true odds" and giving reduced payouts, they create the house edge... so if you go for 50/50 odds, you only get 1.984x payout, instead of proper 2x payout or if you select 2x payout, they only give you 49.6% chance of winning instead of 50%.

This edge is what leads to casinos making money in the long run.

And depending on your bankroll and what payouts and multipliers you're using for your strategy, you don't necessarily need to stop at 5 or 6 losses... look at mine... I was getting 60+ losses and still coming out ahead. In my case, the bankroll needs to be at least 20000x as large as your base bet... so for 10 satoshi base bet, a bankroll of 200,000.

equator

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It is upto you what amount of bitcoins you are going to bet and what strategy are you using it, because as per your strategy the site will give red streak, if you are using martingale of odd 1.2 winnings then i think 13+ is also possible. It 100% chances of getting 13+ losing streak as the site is here to make money but not to donate money so the software is written the way that it will surely cross the mark of your loosing streak. If you are intelligent then you will stop the bet after 5th or 6th losing streak.

HCP

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To answer your question, isn't the probability of that sequence happening just something like .5^13?? (0.00012207031 or 0.012207031%)... the chance for the next roll is still .5 though.

All sorts of crazy stuff can happen with "truly" random numbers and probability... I have been running some bets on a provably fair site that I trust, using Seuntjie's Dice Bot... win chance is 10.02%, so one would reasonably expect, on average, 1 win in every 10 "rolls".

My longest losing streak at this chance level is.... 68... SIXTY EIGHT!!?! Shocked

And that isn't just a once off type thing either, here is a run of around 8000 rolls from today, you can see the 4 big downspikes... they were all 60+ loss streaks...

What I can be "mathematically" sure of, is that over a very large number of rolls (infinite?), my wins/loss ratio should be somewhere close to 10.02%... everything inbetween, including "short" sequences of a couple of thousand rolls, well anything can happen.

Moral of the story? Have a big bankroll to start... and bet small Wink

crytoboost

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Quote from: zacc255 on August 12, 2016, 09:12:42 PM

Hi guys, does anyone here knows what are the mathematical chances to get a 13+ losing streak playing dice with 50% chances of winning? Or how you can calculate it?

It is very possible with 50% win chance and it could go over up 30 because of their provably fair system, so don't be get worry about and lesson learned martingale never works all the time, I had 22 losing streak by using martingale long time.

zend7

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Dice on computer can go to even more than 13+ losing streak even with 50% chance of winning. Thats because on online casino spins are not related to one another so you cannot martingale it. In landline casinos which offer dice the sort of dice where you play higher or lower than a certain number you can martingale it as in real life it doesn't exist the probability to be 100 consecutive times lower or 100 times higher. It will have some variance and martingaling it will bring you profit. A lot of casinos offline have banned this game or put certain limit and they have done the same with roulette. As you can see nothing we can do but chances in a computer or online flash dice game are possible that the losing streak together with 50% chance of winning be even more than 15.

ethereumhunter

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i never make any mathematical chances when playing dice and i really don't how to do that. i only play and play until 3-5 times, and when i loss in 3 times, i quit as fast as i can. but i think its good for me to know how to do mathematical chances to get win in other time.

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Quote from: zacc255 on August 12, 2016, 09:45:12 PM

Quote from: squatz1 on August 12, 2016, 09:41:03 PM

Matters what win percentage you're at, that really is a big factor in all of this.

Let us know what it is and we should be good to check it out.

Hi, I said in my post: 50% chance of winning.

In dice I don't think any mathematical calculations will give you accurate guessing because these are probably fair games and results will never repeat follow in any sequence so each time you will get different results. For me, the dice game is just for fun, and I never play this game to earn money. I will bet in sports to make some profits once in awhile.

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Quote from: squatz1 on August 12, 2016, 09:41:03 PM

Matters what win percentage you're at, that really is a big factor in all of this.

Let us know what it is and we should be good to check it out.

Hi, I said in my post: 50% chance of winning.

squatz1

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Matters what win percentage you're at, that really is a big factor in all of this.

Let us know what it is and we should be good to check it out.

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Quote from: zacc255 on August 12, 2016, 09:12:42 PM

Hi guys, does anyone here knows what are the mathematical chances to get a 13+ losing streak playing dice with 50% chances of winning? Or how you can calculate it?

I don't know how you calculate it but based on my experience, there is a higher odds of getting a loosing streak if you have a higher bet. Most I have encountered is 12 red streak.

zacc255

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Hi guys, does anyone here knows what are the mathematical chances to get a 13+ losing streak playing dice with 50% chances of winning? Or how you can calculate it?

Topic: What are the chances to get a 13+ losing streak? (Read 1408 times)