I think we may get a nice surprise gentlemen!
Topic: What are the odds of Winklesoss ETF passing? [POLL] (Read 3034 times)
Many People say a trump administration will approve anything that makes sense for the bottom Line, and that would even include being first to offer a bitcoin etf before china or Japan starts one...
I think we may get a nice surprise gentlemen!
I think we may get a nice surprise gentlemen!
People thought it was crazy to suggest trump could be president, people thought Britain would not vote for Brexit.
Anything can happen.
Anything can happen.
SEC insiders have been buying over the last year so they have a decent stash before approval. Price will skyrocket when trading starts and make them all very rich.
Heh...damn...got 100 btc plus...I 'resemble' those people....would be nice if you were correct and I ambled in behind such with my 100 btc
pays to be a paranoid hoarder of btc I guess it this comes to pass
Really?? ur back up to over 100 'just like that'?
The feeling is very splitted, with barely 50/50%. For now, I have no precise idea, and I can not even rely on the poll, so I guess I will have to wait until March 11th.
It is the moining concentration behind the Great Firewall of China that is the real sticking point. It is a real shame that Satoshi's vision of mining distributed evenly across the world didn't come to pass.
Mining is a fluid thing that fluctuates constantly. It's quite possible the Chinese government may start sniffing around miners too. They must be doing some enormous OTC deals somewhere along the line.
Perhaps it'll come back to the rest of the world sooner than we realise. That would be a welcome development.
Financial analysts claim there is less than 30% chance that SEC will give ETF a go.
It is the moining concentration behind the Great Firewall of China that is the real sticking point. It is a real shame that Satoshi's vision of mining distributed evenly across the world didn't come to pass.
Pretty sure there is more chance of ETF happening now Trump is President!!!
Trump has zero influence on SEC's decision, as it is not political one, and even if he could do something about their stance, why would he do this?There is nothing to gain for anyone except cryptocurrency community: banks, big business or Wall Street don't care about Coin ETF.
I voted in this poll - and surprise, surprise, we have completely dead even numbers: 38-38 for both answers.
Unfortunately, this result, doesn't reflect real chances of ETF being approved at all.
Financial analysts claim there is less than 30% chance that SEC will give ETF a go.
Pretty sure there is more chance of ETF happening now Trump is President!!!
SEC insiders have been buying over the last year so they have a decent stash before approval. Price will skyrocket when trading starts and make them all very rich.
Heh...damn...got 100 btc plus...I 'resemble' those people....would be nice if you were correct and I ambled in behind such with my 100 btc
pays to be a paranoid hoarder of btc I guess it this comes to pass
Sadly it will not pass. Some banks or some great companies such as PayPal will pay for it to not get accepted. They will then give a fake reason. This is how it works.
I think you will be proved wrong, Bitcoin has passed the stage of denial and this people know it, the ETF will be passed and the price of BTC would skyrocket. Get out of Altcoins before March 1
I'd very much love you to be correct disconnectme
Sadly it will not pass. Some banks or some great companies such as PayPal will pay for it to not get accepted. They will then give a fake reason. This is how it works.
I think you will be proved wrong, Bitcoin has passed the stage of denial and this people know it, the ETF will be passed and the price of BTC would skyrocket. Get out of Altcoins before March 1
Sadly it will not pass. Some banks or some great companies such as PayPal will pay for it to not get accepted. They will then give a fake reason. This is how it works.
Strange price recoveries? Nothing strange about it since it has been happening for years. It's a constant repetitive pattern that the market is moving in.
After crashes, we had recoveries - here you're right. But never (after 2011) in a time period we saw recently. In most cases, recoveries were much faster or much slower.
One can cite, for example, the recoveries during the 2013 bubbles, that never needed more than ~10 days to reach a previous maximum. And as for the slower recoveries, there are the 2011-2013 recovery (almost 2 years) and the mid-2013 recovery (6+ months) and last but not least the 2014-17 recovery (3 years).
I interpret the slower recoveries as normal price behaviour after bubbles and the faster recoveries as simple retracements in a bull market. This time it seems different.
One thing is sure, they have had enough time to work things out. If it still doesn't get approved, then something is fundamentally wrong. Not that it would change much for me if it doesn't get approved, but I think it will disappoint quite some people as this (once approved) may turn out to be an entry point for high level investors that are waiting on the side lines right now.
That something will be the concentration of mining in China, plus the backlog in transactions. Both shout "mickey mouse currency".
I can not see it happening if bitcoin keeps on this downward trend and if it reaches below what it was from before last year's end then it won't get passed.
That is for certain.
That is for certain.
What does price have to do with anything? There are tons of ETFs that have lost shit tons of money. What they care about is safety and viability. The price is someone else's problem.
I didn't quite know what the meaning of etf was and I see that when the price is changed it does not affect this at all.
And yes the price is someone's elses problem when it comes to anyone holding their bitcoins in this security.
I got alot more reading to do about this before I offer my opinion on it.
Thanks for clearing this up for me.
Yours truly,
LLec
Until today I was more close to "No", but now I vote for "yes". It's because of this strange price recoveries that happen every time we see a dump (since January). In earlier bubbles the price got much lower after a dump and I never saw it recover that fast.
The reason is possibly that there are "insiders" that have some idea what the possible outcome could be and are buying, speculating on a price explosion after positive news.
The reason is possibly that there are "insiders" that have some idea what the possible outcome could be and are buying, speculating on a price explosion after positive news.
Strange price recoveries? Nothing strange about it since it has been happening for years. It's a constant repetitive pattern that the market is moving in. Insider trading is a common thing in the Bitcoin world as that bit of information is worth possibly millions of $$ every year. Sell it to traders and whoever is interested, and you'll make a ton of easy money with barely doing anything. Exchange operators and the wealthy traders being supported are the ones that rule this market with iron fist.
I will like to go against the masses and say Yes, the ETF is going to be approved and we will enter a new Bitcoin bubble.
do it!
I will like to go against the masses and say Yes, the ETF is going to be approved and we will enter a new Bitcoin bubble.
Until today I was more close to "No", but now I vote for "yes". It's because of this strange price recoveries that happen every time we see a dump (since January). In earlier bubbles the price got much lower after a dump and I never saw it recover that fast.
The reason is possibly that there are "insiders" that have some idea what the possible outcome could be and are buying, speculating on a price explosion after positive news.
The reason is possibly that there are "insiders" that have some idea what the possible outcome could be and are buying, speculating on a price explosion after positive news.
China is 'enforcing' every time BTC goes over $1,000.00, they seem to 'intervene' .....hmmmm....trying to keep the 'kettle' at simmer...from the china authorities point of view.....
http://www.coindesk.com/needham-bitcoin-etf-attract-300-million-assets-approved/
I doubt it will pass, but again would be nice to be wrong, and the above come to pass.
Then again, I've no clue...at one time (newbie) i drank the BFL Kool Aid.....so obviously I'm likely still deluded with my 'rose colored glasses'
Until today I was more close to "No", but now I vote for "yes". It's because of this strange price recoveries that happen every time we see a dump (since January). In earlier bubbles the price got much lower after a dump and I never saw it recover that fast.
The reason is possibly that there are "insiders" that have some idea what the possible outcome could be and are buying, speculating on a price explosion after positive news.
The reason is possibly that there are "insiders" that have some idea what the possible outcome could be and are buying, speculating on a price explosion after positive news.
That one Winklevoss lawyer that worked on getting it approved cited the number one reason why it wouldn't get approved was due to 95% of the trading volume taking place in China.
However, thanks to China curbing margin trading, worldwide volume has now evened out nicely around the world.
Here is the article from the Winky lawyer.
http://www.coindesk.com/ex-gemini-lawyer-sec-unlikely-to-approve-winklevoss-bitcoin-etf/
I think the SEC won't want to miss out the next big thing. Plus Trump has surrounded himself with some Bitcoin friendly people who have for sure brought it up to him at least (Peter Thiel, Mick Mulvaney, and even sat down with 21,inc CEO Balaji Svinivasan)
However, thanks to China curbing margin trading, worldwide volume has now evened out nicely around the world.
Here is the article from the Winky lawyer.
http://www.coindesk.com/ex-gemini-lawyer-sec-unlikely-to-approve-winklevoss-bitcoin-etf/
I think the SEC won't want to miss out the next big thing. Plus Trump has surrounded himself with some Bitcoin friendly people who have for sure brought it up to him at least (Peter Thiel, Mick Mulvaney, and even sat down with 21,inc CEO Balaji Svinivasan)
Nevermind what I said. With what China has done with the exchanges this morning, the ETF is screwed! Price is too easily manipulated by communist China.
Or maybe them enforcing KYC requirements will reassure the SEC. One exchange BTCC seems to be fine, the other two should start allowing withdrawals BEFORE the SEC decision.
Of course if withdrawals are still not allowed on March 11th, then I agree, the ETF might not go ahead.
I think there are chances of this occurring, but there is a possibility that the process may be delayed.
This upcoming deadline is the final one. There can't be any more delays. It's either a yes or a no by then. That's why people are getting ever hotter under the collar.
I think there are chances of this occurring, but there is a possibility that the process may be delayed.
This upcoming deadline is the final one. There can't be any more delays. It's either a yes or a no by then. That's why people are getting ever hotter under the collar.
I think there are chances of this occurring, but there is a possibility that the process may be delayed, as this usually happens when there are many bureaucratic procedures involved. I would particularly like to see this happen, since it is something with potential to attract high profile investors into the Bitcoin market.
On a side note you can bet on the outcome of this happening......see link below
Interesting. It would be a better punt if that bet didn't single out the Winklevoss ETF. In some ways the SolidX one looks like a hotter prospect.
On a side note you can bet on the outcome of this happening......see link below
I still give the odds at best of 1 out of 4.....but hey, would be nice to be wrong
http://www.coindesk.com/can-now-bet-bitcoin-whether-winklevoss-etf-will-go-live/
I still give the odds at best of 1 out of 4.....but hey, would be nice to be wrong
http://www.coindesk.com/can-now-bet-bitcoin-whether-winklevoss-etf-will-go-live/
I believe you will be wrong.
On a side note you can bet on the outcome of this happening......see link below
I still give the odds at best of 1 out of 4.....but hey, would be nice to be wrong
http://www.coindesk.com/can-now-bet-bitcoin-whether-winklevoss-etf-will-go-live/
I still give the odds at best of 1 out of 4.....but hey, would be nice to be wrong
http://www.coindesk.com/can-now-bet-bitcoin-whether-winklevoss-etf-will-go-live/
I think it's not going to happen (as much as I would like that it did); unless of course that somebody lobbied heavily and will profit from it. The Bitmex 30 % sounds about right so my 'NO' was within this expectation.
I also believe no, i dont get a positive vibe about this, too many questions about this havent still been answered, i think its too early, volatility and KYC matters hurt BTC for now. I strongly believe that its a matter of time for ETF but not now
I say no. It's been tried and it still hasn't happened. Personally I think it's the opposite of what bitcoins really need BUT at the same time it will open up the market to normal people who don't want the bitcoin education needed to hold them but would still like to take advantage of the price increases.
One thing is sure, they have had enough time to work things out. If it still doesn't get approved, then something is fundamentally wrong. Not that it would change much for me if it doesn't get approved, but I think it will disappoint quite some people as this (once approved) may turn out to be an entry point for high level investors that are waiting on the side lines right now.
I can not see it happening if bitcoin keeps on this downward trend and if it reaches below what it was from before last year's end then it won't get passed.
That is for certain.
That is for certain.
What does price have to do with anything? There are tons of ETFs that have lost shit tons of money. What they care about is safety and viability. The price is someone else's problem.
I can not see it happening if bitcoin keeps on this downward trend and if it reaches below what it was from before last year's end then it won't get passed.
That is for certain.
That is for certain.
Well with this recent bullish news, not only do I think the COIN ETF will be approved.
Look for China-based Bitcoin ETFs to start popping up this year as well.
Look for China-based Bitcoin ETFs to start popping up this year as well.
My take:ill-conceived China shoots itself in the foot.
They had highest volume, now they will become irrelevant.
China trading will go from 30-40% (which it became after removing free trades) to 10%, then to 1-5%
Nobody will give them a second thought as far as bitcoin trading is concerned.
Western trading WILL take over, making ETF much more likely to happen in eventuality.
They had highest volume, now they will become irrelevant.
China trading will go from 30-40% (which it became after removing free trades) to 10%, then to 1-5%
Nobody will give them a second thought as far as bitcoin trading is concerned.
Western trading WILL take over, making ETF much more likely to happen in eventuality.
That one Winklevoss lawyer that worked on getting it approved cited the number one reason why it wouldn't get approved was due to 95% of the trading volume taking place in China.
However, thanks to China curbing margin trading, worldwide volume has now evened out nicely around the world.
Here is the article from the Winky lawyer.
http://www.coindesk.com/ex-gemini-lawyer-sec-unlikely-to-approve-winklevoss-bitcoin-etf/
I think the SEC won't want to miss out the next big thing. Plus Trump has surrounded himself with some Bitcoin friendly people who have for sure brought it up to him at least (Peter Thiel, Mick Mulvaney, and even sat down with 21,inc CEO Balaji Svinivasan)
However, thanks to China curbing margin trading, worldwide volume has now evened out nicely around the world.
Here is the article from the Winky lawyer.
http://www.coindesk.com/ex-gemini-lawyer-sec-unlikely-to-approve-winklevoss-bitcoin-etf/
I think the SEC won't want to miss out the next big thing. Plus Trump has surrounded himself with some Bitcoin friendly people who have for sure brought it up to him at least (Peter Thiel, Mick Mulvaney, and even sat down with 21,inc CEO Balaji Svinivasan)
Nevermind what I said. With what China has done with the exchanges this morning, the ETF is screwed! Price is too easily manipulated by communist China.
SEC insiders have been buying over the last year so they have a decent stash before approval. Price will skyrocket when trading starts and make them all very rich.
Perhaps they strung it along to the max because they don't want to approve it but had no real reason to deny it. In which case it will slide through on auto-pass on the 11th. 
I suspect they ('the parasites that be') are still too afraid and unsure of bitcoin to endorse it in any way and that they wish it will fail or just go away.
I said no.
Be interesting if they do pass the ETF though
I said no.
Be interesting if they do pass the ETF though
Can we expect a horrible dump & price fall if the ETF gets rejected? I fear that is going to happen.
if you think all this time price was rising because of something that you (i am assuming) didn't know much about then you can expect it to fall too
but generally whenever there is a news and market is ready to move in a specific direction that news becomes big.
for example right now you can find at least 20 different topics (mostly from newbie accounts) and even more comments talking about China and their meeting!
so if ETF was rejected or passed, and you saw lots of talk about it then you can expect it to affect the price.
i voted no because i think the chances are too low.
That one Winklevoss lawyer that worked on getting it approved cited the number one reason why it wouldn't get approved was due to 95% of the trading volume taking place in China.
However, thanks to China curbing margin trading, worldwide volume has now evened out nicely around the world.
Here is the article from the Winky lawyer.
http://www.coindesk.com/ex-gemini-lawyer-sec-unlikely-to-approve-winklevoss-bitcoin-etf/
I think the SEC won't want to miss out the next big thing. Plus Trump has surrounded himself with some Bitcoin friendly people who have for sure brought it up to him at least (Peter Thiel, Mick Mulvaney, and even sat down with 21,inc CEO Balaji Svinivasan)
However, thanks to China curbing margin trading, worldwide volume has now evened out nicely around the world.
Here is the article from the Winky lawyer.
http://www.coindesk.com/ex-gemini-lawyer-sec-unlikely-to-approve-winklevoss-bitcoin-etf/
I think the SEC won't want to miss out the next big thing. Plus Trump has surrounded himself with some Bitcoin friendly people who have for sure brought it up to him at least (Peter Thiel, Mick Mulvaney, and even sat down with 21,inc CEO Balaji Svinivasan)
I think the SEC will reject the ETF, Bitcoin is still not mature/liquid enough.
It will be reviewed later this ore next year...but it will get approved at some point.
It will be reviewed later this ore next year...but it will get approved at some point.
well you need exposure to have more liquid and be more mature, etf is the best compromise for this now, by approving it it will benefit to bitcoin
the reason must be jurisdictional and not related to bitcoin growth
Can we expect a horrible dump & price fall if the ETF gets rejected? I fear that is going to happen.
i don't think so, price reached this tage two times, it will be harder for any dump to make it again $700, because more people bought again at these level
Can we expect a horrible dump & price fall if the ETF gets rejected? I fear that is going to happen.
Not so much I think. I don't think the market expects the ETF to be passed. IF so it will be a damn nice surprise.
the price of BTC imho will go to the 'moon' big time!
imho ...NONE of the price rises we are seeing with BTC has anything to do with the Winklevoss ETF being approved on March 11th, 2017
moving away from the above 'bright note' above
looking at the other press and such I give the odds of the ETF passing in my 'own mind' 1 out of 20 now.
So looking around went and discouraged myself further.
Such a pretty dream it was for March 2017 thou it was......Every day without a withdrawal increases the chance of a yes. Having said that I think the odds are still low. Easier to say no to a small group than say yes to big one that might be exposed to a shitshow.
The problem is ...if they don't get it ...they have to do a 'complete re-do' and that it took 3.5 years from conception of their ETF fund till March 11th...likely they will
just say screw it and not even bother to try the process again. At that point, imho ..it will be the other guys that proposed their own ETF this year..which would probably
be another 2 years down the road plus..if they play the same 'string along the BTC ETF's on approval as LONG as possible.
A guy would think from the above that 'bank lobby' folk and other FUD would be messing with our BTC adoption of a BTC ETF. Naw....can't be rigged against us like that right? ;(
What in your view are the odds of the Winklevoss ETF getting approval by
March 11th, 2017. It has been 3.5 years in the planning? Most of the press
I read says only a 1 in 4 shot at SEC approval. What do you think?
Also take the poll.
Thanks.
March 11th, 2017. It has been 3.5 years in the planning? Most of the press
I read says only a 1 in 4 shot at SEC approval. What do you think?
Also take the poll.
Thanks.
No way it gets approved while the scaling wars continue. Too high of a chance for terrible loss from a multiple chain outcome.
Every day without a withdrawal increases the chance of a yes. Having said that I think the odds are still low. Easier to say no to a small group than say yes to big one that might be exposed to a shitshow.
chances are generally considered low (25% or less), therefore, btc should not drop much as it should be priced in already.
However, I hope that SEC will just sit on it, thereby "approving" it by default (no action).
they can always point to this later and say...see, we did not actively "approve".
If approved, I am penciling 5% of my IRAs deployed there in the first two weeks or a month, depending on whether it would jump to some silliness immediately or behaves similar to GLD in the first 6 mo (essentially, flat to down).
However, I hope that SEC will just sit on it, thereby "approving" it by default (no action).
they can always point to this later and say...see, we did not actively "approve".
If approved, I am penciling 5% of my IRAs deployed there in the first two weeks or a month, depending on whether it would jump to some silliness immediately or behaves similar to GLD in the first 6 mo (essentially, flat to down).
What in your view are the odds of the Winklevoss ETF getting approval by
March 11th, 2017. It has been 3.5 years in the planning? Most of the press
I read says only a 1 in 4 shot at SEC approval. What do you think?
Also take the poll.
Thanks.
March 11th, 2017. It has been 3.5 years in the planning? Most of the press
I read says only a 1 in 4 shot at SEC approval. What do you think?
Also take the poll.
Thanks.
I believe it will happen, America needs to keep investing in all BTC projects, or other countries like China will just continue to rule and take over.
They would be stupid to reject these great guys.
My view is the safe bet for the buearacracy and SEC civil servants is to just punt it back to the drawing board
as a complete redo. To much finance money and lobby's for such slinging FUD imho,
for SEC to do so. No upside for passing ETF from SEC point of view imho.
I hope I'm dead frigging wrong thou!
They have been lobbing it back and forth for more than 3 years now. I think at this point, the regulators would just let it go through. Test the waters through this ETF and impose regulations if required later.
I think the SEC will reject the ETF, Bitcoin is still not mature/liquid enough.
It will be reviewed later this ore next year...but it will get approved at some point.
It will be reviewed later this ore next year...but it will get approved at some point.
Can we expect a horrible dump & price fall if the ETF gets rejected? I fear that is going to happen.
This is a good question.
Yes I think due to some disappointment a drop could happen.
And maybe one or the other whale tries to trigger even more dumps who knows.
On the other, most of the people will know that the chance this thing getting approved is very low.
Imo it would only be a short drop.Smart investors will try to take advantage of that if it happens.
Can we expect a horrible dump & price fall if the ETF gets rejected? I fear that is going to happen.
What in your view are the odds of the Winklevoss ETF getting approval by
March 11th, 2017. It has been 3.5 years in the planning? Most of the press
I read says only a 1 in 4 shot at SEC approval. What do you think?
Also take the poll.
Thanks.
March 11th, 2017. It has been 3.5 years in the planning? Most of the press
I read says only a 1 in 4 shot at SEC approval. What do you think?
Also take the poll.
Thanks.
I believe it will happen, America needs to keep investing in all BTC projects, or other countries like China will just continue to rule and take over.
They would be stupid to reject these great guys.
My view is the safe bet for the buearacracy and SEC civil servants is to just punt it back to the drawing board
as a complete redo. To much finance money and lobby's for such slinging FUD imho,
for SEC to do so. No upside for passing ETF from SEC point of view imho.
I hope I'm dead frigging wrong thou!
The crackdown on fake trading in China should help. The SEC would probably have never approved anything where trading was 90% in China. Now it looks like western exchanges control 2/3rds of the trading.
However, the mining concentration in China is still a problem. There are a cartel already, which is a no-no, and if the Chinese govt wanted to get spiteful they could close it down. It would have been better if mining was distributed around the world.
However, the mining concentration in China is still a problem. There are a cartel already, which is a no-no, and if the Chinese govt wanted to get spiteful they could close it down. It would have been better if mining was distributed around the world.
I'm pessimistic.
Don't think it will get approved.
SEC will find a reason to reject it.
This doesn't mean it will never happen. Maybe one of the other two will have a bigger chance I don't know.
As we know the Winklevoss bros always got surpassed by others.
Maybe the SolidX or the other ETF by Barry Shilbert can make it.
Don't think it will get approved.
SEC will find a reason to reject it.
This doesn't mean it will never happen. Maybe one of the other two will have a bigger chance I don't know.
As we know the Winklevoss bros always got surpassed by others.
Maybe the SolidX or the other ETF by Barry Shilbert can make it.
What in your view are the odds of the Winklevoss ETF getting approval by
March 11th, 2017. It has been 3.5 years in the planning? Most of the press
I read says only a 1 in 4 shot at SEC approval. What do you think?
Also take the poll.
Thanks.
March 11th, 2017. It has been 3.5 years in the planning? Most of the press
I read says only a 1 in 4 shot at SEC approval. What do you think?
Also take the poll.
Thanks.
I believe it will happen, America needs to keep investing in all BTC projects, or other countries like China will just continue to rule and take over.
They would be stupid to reject these great guys.
What in your view are the odds of the Winklevoss ETF getting approval by
March 11th, 2017. It has been 3.5 years in the planning? Most of the press
I read says only a 1 in 4 shot at SEC approval. What do you think?
Also take the poll.
Thanks.
March 11th, 2017. It has been 3.5 years in the planning? Most of the press
I read says only a 1 in 4 shot at SEC approval. What do you think?
Also take the poll.
Thanks.
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