Topic: What are the odds to never mine a block with 500Mh/s solo? (Read 2118 times)

Quote from: Quantumplation on June 24, 2011, 07:49:31 PM

My result: 70% to never mine a single block ever.

If you take "ever" as in "in eternity", you have a probability of 100% to mine a block, hell, you're even 100% likely to mine 1000 blocks with only 1 hash per second!

Please specify a REAL timeframe like "within the next 5 years", not infinity!

Not true as there's a finite number of bitcoins.

Not true, as the 8 decimal places are just a convention but can easily be extended, so mili-Satoshis etc. are being mined and probably even generated. There will never be 21 Million BTC (or more) in not-infinite time frames, only 20999999.999.....

Not completely true, either.
At least according to the current code, the first block which does no longer award even a single satoshi, will be block 6930000 = 210000 * 33, mined in ~2140.

TheVirus

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Activity: 84

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Quote from: TheVirus on June 24, 2011, 07:44:17 PM

Quote from: Quantumplation on June 24, 2011, 07:41:03 PM

My result: 70% to never mine a single block ever.

If you take "ever" as in "in eternity", you have a probability of 100% to mine a block, hell, you're even 100% likely to mine 1000 blocks with only 1 hash per second!

Please specify a REAL timeframe like "within the next 5 years", not infinity!

Not true as there's a finite number of bitcoins.

But not a finite number of blocks. After we stop minting coins, there will still be new blocks with transaction fees.

True, but I was under the assumption he meant a block that produces a BTC prize, not a fee.

You don't get charged a fee for generating a block in the future. YOU get awarded the fee, so it's still a BTC prize.

I know, it was a poor choice of wording on my part.

Sukrim

legendary

Activity: 2618

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Quote from: TheVirus on June 24, 2011, 07:44:17 PM

My result: 70% to never mine a single block ever.

If you take "ever" as in "in eternity", you have a probability of 100% to mine a block, hell, you're even 100% likely to mine 1000 blocks with only 1 hash per second!

Please specify a REAL timeframe like "within the next 5 years", not infinity!

Not true as there's a finite number of bitcoins.

Not true, as the 8 decimal places are just a convention but can easily be extended, so mili-Satoshis etc. are being mined and probably even generated. There will never be 21 Million BTC (or more) in not-infinite time frames, only 20999999.999.....

Quantumplation

sr. member

Activity: 308

Merit: 250

Quote from: Quantumplation on June 24, 2011, 07:41:03 PM

Quote from: Quantumplation on June 24, 2011, 07:41:03 PM

My result: 70% to never mine a single block ever.

If you take "ever" as in "in eternity", you have a probability of 100% to mine a block, hell, you're even 100% likely to mine 1000 blocks with only 1 hash per second!

Please specify a REAL timeframe like "within the next 5 years", not infinity!

Not true as there's a finite number of bitcoins.

But not a finite number of blocks. After we stop minting coins, there will still be new blocks with transaction fees.

True, but I was under the assumption he meant a block that produces a BTC prize, not a fee.

You don't get charged a fee for generating a block in the future. YOU get awarded the fee, so it's still a BTC prize.

cloud9

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Activity: 126

Merit: 10

Current total network hash from http:// is 11.11 THash/sec. Your share is 500 MHash/sec.

So your odds should be 11.11 x 1e6 : 500 , every 10 minutes or so.

That is 11,110,000 : 500 or 22,220 : 1 or 0.00453% , every 10 minutes or so. If there are 6 x 10 minutes in an hour, you should probably strike lucky after 22,220 / 6 / 24 = 154.3 days if the total network hash remains unchanged, and you do not have more than average bad luck?!?

TheVirus

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Activity: 84

Merit: 10

My result: 70% to never mine a single block ever.

If you take "ever" as in "in eternity", you have a probability of 100% to mine a block, hell, you're even 100% likely to mine 1000 blocks with only 1 hash per second!

Please specify a REAL timeframe like "within the next 5 years", not infinity!

Not true as there's a finite number of bitcoins.

But not a finite number of blocks. After we stop minting coins, there will still be new blocks with transaction fees.

True, but I was under the assumption he meant a block that produces a BTC prize, not a fee.

Quantumplation

sr. member

Activity: 308

Merit: 250

My result: 70% to never mine a single block ever.

If you take "ever" as in "in eternity", you have a probability of 100% to mine a block, hell, you're even 100% likely to mine 1000 blocks with only 1 hash per second!

Please specify a REAL timeframe like "within the next 5 years", not infinity!

Not true as there's a finite number of bitcoins.

But not a finite number of blocks. After we stop minting coins, there will still be new blocks with transaction fees.

TheVirus

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

My result: 70% to never mine a single block ever.

If you take "ever" as in "in eternity", you have a probability of 100% to mine a block, hell, you're even 100% likely to mine 1000 blocks with only 1 hash per second!

Please specify a REAL timeframe like "within the next 5 years", not infinity!

Not true as there's a finite number of bitcoins.

fitty

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 501

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Hi,

I've been working on that question and have a result that is far off the result previously found in the wiki:
My assumption: network growth is 2%/day
My result: 70% to never mine a single block ever.

Old assumption: difficulty growth is 10%/iteration (which is far more optimistic than my assumption)
Old result: 96% to never mine a single block ever. (which is a magnitude more pessimistic than my result)

Who's interested in proof reading? Who has another, maybe simpler solution to provide?
The Wiki link is here:
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Why_pooled_mining#Alternative_Perspective

The bigger issues is how many coins would you get (50? 25? 10?) and what will the value be in 6 months, 12 months, 24 months.

If you're worried about 50%+ pools, just join a smaller pool. Doesn't that balance out the danger? As long as you're not in the biggest you're a counter balance to them in terms of the network.

Sukrim

legendary

Activity: 2618

Merit: 1007