What bots & code are doing to the labor market: share of routine work is plummet

BADecker

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This is such extraordinarily wonderful news. As machines do more work for us, more of us can go on welfare. We will have more time. The population will increase. And it won't matter because machines will figure out a way whereby we can all fit on the planet. Think of all the recreation time you will have.

The only people who won't benefit by leisure time are the grocery store workers. Stocking shelves is such complex work, that it will be a long time before they can make robots that will be able to do it. Finally, grocery workers will be paid what they are worth.

Cheesy

alyssa85

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Quote from: gentlemand on April 23, 2016, 07:38:50 PM

Quote from: alyssa85 on April 23, 2016, 07:30:16 PM

Remember that the birth rate has been falling in the western world, which means the working age population will start to fall too. So as the bots take over, the number of people of working age needing jobs will also be falling, which means the number of unemployed won't rise.

I agree with the sentiment but tech moves way, way faster than the human life cycle. And there are billions of other people waiting to get a slice of a pie which may never arrive.

The birth rate started falling in the 1980s, so that trend started way before robotics got underway. And of course China has had a one child policy for over thirty years- their working age population has already started to drop, though the total population is rising because pensioners are living longer. Even in places like Iran the birth rate has dropped from about 6 children per woman thirty years ago to 2 children per woman. In about 100 years time as all this feeds through, the earth's population will start to drop.

gentlemand

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Welt Am Draht

Quote from: alyssa85 on April 23, 2016, 07:30:16 PM

Remember that the birth rate has been falling in the western world, which means the working age population will start to fall too. So as the bots take over, the number of people of working age needing jobs will also be falling, which means the number of unemployed won't rise.

I agree with the sentiment but tech moves way, way faster than the human life cycle. And there are billions of other people waiting to get a slice of a pie which may never arrive.

alyssa85

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Quote from: gentlemand on April 23, 2016, 06:50:19 PM

It'll be a renewed form of serfdom, but there won't actually be anything for the serfs to do. I hope the powers that be come up with some nifty ideas to keep us content. Profit don't count for much if you're being raped to death by the masses you've raped yourself.

Remember that the birth rate has been falling in the western world, which means the working age population will start to fall too. So as the bots take over, the number of people of working age needing jobs will also be falling, which means the number of unemployed won't rise.

Look at Japan. The average age there passed 43 in 1990- within 10 years the working age population (people aged 16-65) started falling and now the overall population is dropping. Unemployment has remained low as a result even as growth slowed and they started using more robots.

gentlemand

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Welt Am Draht

It'll be a renewed form of serfdom, but there won't actually be anything for the serfs to do. I hope the powers that be come up with some nifty ideas to keep us content. Profit don't count for much if you're being raped to death by the masses you've raped yourself.

Slowturtleinc

member

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Think a lot of people will suffer as the graph peaks.
The rich as in all history will continue to profit and push more automation to squeeze every penny.
Do not see a sudden shift in empathy that would save people that are left in the lurch.
Richest guy in my neck of the woods does a whole lot of what you would call image control. He made his billions by firing people every month, closing any potential union store and hostile takeovers.
He donates to a hospital for research into a issue he suffers from and he suddenly is a saint.
People know that money can fix most of the dark trail they leave behind, so good days for the rich.
Work turns more global and the middle class dies.
Any one can see this coming.
I think a real estate bubble will drive this home soon.

Wilikon

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We will be paid by the amount of digital asset we are creating. Just like here with all the sponsors.

Dahhi

full member

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MERCATOX

Well, that means humans need to start thinking of being self-employed instead of trying to compete with computers.

Fortify

legendary

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The real question might be - can humans sustain themselves when all the other jobs in the world are automated? If an economy can be rewired without imploding to accept this reality then technology could take the next leap in working for us. All those bus drivers who get replaced by automated monorails or autonomous cars might, on some sort of state benefit, be paid to pursue other roles like restoring a classic car, volunteering at a zoo, being a lifeguard on the sea or some other interesting pursuit. Automation should get it done with minimal parts.

LiteCoinGuy

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What bots & code are doing to the labor market: share of routine work is plummeting

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