Topic: What do the next few hours hold (no reward) (Read 915 times)

OK. If people think the price is inflated and they are still holding BTC, why would they not sell into his bidwall. I have seen bites higher than 1000BTC and thousands within seconds and the prices had not changed much since then. That is unless of course he is buying into his own bid walls whihc wouldnt make sense at all.

He hasn't been nibbled too much yet, actually. When the next massive sell comes in, he'll pull his walls after ~2000 coins hit him. His intentions are to provide price support. If he gets hit hard too quickly and he ends up purchasing those coins, he's going to have to sell them back into a declining market to get his borrowed funds back.

The lack of bidwall in front of him more than likely signals people sitting back to see what happens in my opinion. If he really is trying to get rid of his coins for money then his massive bidwalls when they get eaten into a few thousand coins at a time kind of defeat that purpose. I am not so sure he wants bitcoin to succeed either. My opinion is that it is someone in it for personal greed either in coins or USD. The coins thing as a whole is a good thing as long as he reinvests as much USD into Bitcoin as he extracts although I am not sure this is the case either. Originally I thought this was someone who was trying to increase their cash holdings while maintaining BTC which of course would send the price plummiting give the fact the actual capital is so low. I like the idea of selling mining power for BTC to organizations for something such as F@Home because it adds capital to the market and if those are doing it wish to do so they can liquidate their capital. Of course this would not be enough for everyone but it is one idea of how to stimulate a bitcoin economy.

As far as the bidwalls go I am surprised he has not pulled any as of yet which makes me wonder what his true intentions are.

I have a few ideas of who it is, and what their intentions are. I've met some absolute yahoo's in Bitcoin, man. I was harsh towards you earlier because we don't need yet another cultist in our midst. If you really want to imagine why they're doing what they're doing, manage to wrap your head around the idea that their whole being is centered around Bitcoin and its success, and then further imagine what mental gymnastics and ego preservation techniques you might employ if you were forestalling the inevitable? It's not difficult to understand irrationality, but it is hard to imagine that he isn't starting to crack under the pressure. He's not buying coins to hoard, as demonstrated by his unmitigated 'cancel' trigger finger for his offers as soon as he gets nibbled away at. No, he's trying to ignite a rally by providing price supports that NOBODY believes in anymore. It's too late for him, and his best option if he wants Bitcoin to succeed is to let it take its walk down into the $1 range, because again, NOT A SINGLE PERSON BELIEVES HIM, AND THEY THINK HE'S A JOKE.

Given that you're more on the bullish side, and stating what everyone else is thinking, I think it's fair to say that the lack of a bid wall growing in front of his facade of borrowed cash signals (finally! jesus..) the end to false price supports, and possibly a new and more measured beginning. The next chapter of Bitcoin awaits us, Mr. Manipulator. You will not be able to stop it, and you WILL be left behind.

-Jonathan

I think the so-called manipulator is someone who is working the BTC system to gain more money and/or BTC. If they were the same party that sold off a ton of BTC at $2.60-$3.15 early in the week, they're now buying back in at $2.00 to $2.20. That would represent roughly a 50% increase in BTC holdings, and that large buy wall that eventually dissipates is just waiting to become a large sell wall the next time we're up in the $3 range for a while. Perhaps they got in when BTC was going for $15 or $20, and after seeing the value plummet they have decided to manipulate the system to try and recoup their investment.

If you look at the current standings at MtGox, it might seem that there's a big push for price to go back up -- i.e. we see 100000BTC waiting to be bought at a price point within $0.30 of the current $2.20 price, but only 30000BTC waiting to be sold at prices up to $0.45 above the current value. In the past, that more often has been an indicator that the market price is ready to move down another $0.25 or so, which would mean the $1.90 mark could easily see the light of day over the weekend. Plus, the BTC dumper did his business last weekend when people were AFK, and that would seem to be another good time to make a move. So, my bet is prices drop to <$2 over the weekend, but by Monday we'll be back in the $2.20 range once more.

/gamble

I notice at the very least they have smartened up and gone from a 50k solid bidwall to a more distributed one. Instantly when they got back into the market the price jumped $0.15/BTC. Assuming their goal is to cash out as much as they can in USD temporarily pumping the bidwalls to raise the asking price they are in the long term causing a decline in bitcoin value per coin. When the steps are there it makes it appear a lot more like they are trying to get rid of their coins while minimizing their financial risk. I would like to believe we are going back up but when they are creating bidwalls and pulling out 50-80k in coin demand instantly its only going to cause the price to fall more dramatically.

I wish we knew who this was so we could ask them what their intentions are. In all likelihood though they would misrepresent them in order to further their own financial positon. Assuming their bidwalls stay in place the next few hours I have no idea what to expect.

Honestly man, I don't think they have a clue what they're doing. Furthermore, I suspect that the $150 - $200k is this fellows cashed out IRA / Retirement and/or borrowed funds. I don't actually believe that the owner of the fake bid wall is the only player, but he's got the most to lose, both financially and personally (his ego's taken a big hit from the declining value and interest - i.e. nobody pays attention to his insane rants anymore, his wife won't give him the time of day, his children think he's a loser.. etc..)



-Jonathan

[edit] As for the next few hours.. Well.. We'll see another 30k BTC sold off. Wait for it.. Wait for it..

I am just wondering what everyone thinks will happen over the next few hours with our manipulator being back in the game. I for one am unsure of their intentions at this point since they disappeared for the last couple of days. I have seen some of his higher bidwalls eaten entirely by sells and apparently some moving back when his higher bidwalls were being eaten. Are they still playing the same old pump and dump game or are they reinvesting their previous takings for more BTC?