Topic: What do you think about long tails? (Read 201 times)

Some of the simple games such as tossing a die or coin in a computer game may actually contain cheating mechanics. It is better to use only games that are open source.
     But here's what I would like to say. Real randomness, in my opinion, is quite different from the one created by pseudo-random number generators.
     I invite everyone to do an independent experiment with tossing a coin. If you throw long enough, you'll be surprised at how long sequences with one side of a coin can be. I think that 20 drops is still not enough. There may well be 30 and 40 and 50. Although this is rare.

the truth is you can't determine how many losses you will incur before you will hit the winning bet. 10, 20 or more, so you have no assurance even if you apply martingale strategy. it all boils down to luck. stop loss is really important especially if you have limited bankroll to play with. tried these many times, the martingale, the reason why i can say, you can't really tell when will you hit your luck.


it is like you are waiting in vain if you happen to wait for several days for your multibet. you won't sleep also in this case as you keep on looking the results of your next bet. that's actually hard. in my case, i will likely place multibet happening in the same day. at least, when the day is over, i already know if i won or lost. and move on the next day.

I have tried some of them as I copy bets and some people use really low odds with multi 20 parlays or more and they span the games in a long range of dates.While some of these bets have come true with odds over 30-50 for me any bet that you wait several days for it to come true is not that worth.I prefer these type of multi also but only when they are playing in the same date,usually overnight.

For 20 times, that can't be a coincident that he lost all his coins in the 21st time as he maxed out. I would definitely see the game as rigged but its always been like this even on Dice in which many of the gamblers who also decide to test martingale lose it all when the losing streaks happen. It can't be bad luck, it must be rigged.

I have tested the strategy over and over with just $50 and I even started with $0.25 just to make sure I can enjoy and last the session for hours. But as soon as I increased my starting number, I get the unlucky break.

It seems that I have applied the Martingale strategy method to almost all provably fair games. We don't know how many consecutive losses the long tails will have based on the count, so for you, you might expect or predict up to 20 consecutive losses, but what if the loss streak continues, and you go all-in on the 21st round, so you still end up losing. Yeah, strategies offer a framework, but the unpredictable elements remain constant. My biggest mistake in using this strategy is setting a stop profit but rarely setting a stop loss, so the overall outcome is negative.

I once thought that if you trade or play through a series of black and white stripes, then you can make a kind of filter. This hypothetical filter would reduce the damage to your capital caused by black streaks of bad luck and increase the positive results that white streaks of luck brought. The problem is that we learn about black and white stripes after the fact. Before we place our bets, all future games may look equally promising. Well, or it must be some kind of special game. Which would allow you to lose only a little, but win a lot.) Perhaps drophunting is more like such a game).

Right. Getting those big wins or dealing with disappointing losses often comes down to outliers and streaks. Long tails might bring hefty payouts, but they're not an everyday thing because you'd need quite a few bets before hitting one. To handle that unpredictability, trying out strategies like the fishing method or relying on a dice bot could add some fun and strategy to the mix.

I have explored long tails in Martingale several times. I have explored them several times in trading. You know, real trading is not very suitable for martingale and you need to make a lot of additional settings there. After all, trading is not like roulette in a casino. Volatility needs to be taken into account. If you have a low volatility bet, it may take you a long time to know the outcome. Then it comes to mind to use the shoulder. But here, too, not everything is so simple. On centralized exchanges, your stop losses may be hunted by other players. Therefore, I cannot call it the equivalent of a martingale in gambling. But if you make the stop loss and take profit values relatively small, you will get an analogue of a martingale. I can say that the results are similar. There can be 10, 12, 15 or 25 losses in a row. These are long tails. Of course, there may be 25 wins in a row, but we know that the deposit is more sensitive to losses than to winnings.

I think everyone who bets regularly has tried the Martingale method at some point, because in theory it's great, you read about it, set up your strategy and you're ready to win 
And in the beginning, if you're a bit lucky, you can win some good bets, but then the losses come.
I've done it with dice, I even had a program on my PC that helped me set up the strategy, how much bankroll I had to have, what sequence of losses I could handle with a given bankroll etc

But soon or later comes that incredible losing streak that you think is impossible hehehe
Like you said, you saw 20 losing bets in a row 

After that 20x losing streak, did you try again or stop?

There would always be an outlier where you would get that overwhelming outcome. Overwhelming if you won, underwhelming if you lost. It’s always going to be the case whenever you reach or see a certain streak. Long tails would result to a big payout but less likely to occur. It would probably need to have a lot of bets before it happens.

It is hard to rely on that unless you use a strategy like fishing strategy or something with a dice bot.

I tried to translate coin tossing to other areas. For example, for cryptocurrency trading. I opened standard positions with small leverage, always in one direction (long). So I was always either winning or losing, which is pretty much like flipping a coin. At the same time, I tested the theory of random walk in the market. As a result, I can say that most likely the random walk theory is incorrect, and long tails in trading and possibly games are much more common than mainstream theories predict. I would say UNEXPECTEDLY more often. This experiment can be repeated for different casino games, but first you need to think through the design of the study so that it is as similar as possible to flipping coins. I think the result will be the same. Long tails are more common than theory suggests. I think that a tail of 20-30-50 identical results is common.

You saw a maximum of 8 identical outcomes in your trials, but probability doesnt stop there. This is a sobering reminder that theoretical computations and real-world scenarios often differ greatly. Random events are unpredictable, but your ingenious method overlooked this. I believe that using past results to predict future outcomes in games of chance is risky. Playing longer increases your likelihood of seeing long tails. Understand probability's unpredictability, not only lose money. Even though it was bad, your experience taught you probability and risk management. Online gaming is risky and unpredictable, therefore players must be realistic. Gambling should be fun, not profitable.

Yes, that's true, and many of us have tried it, but it still doesn't give us the desired results. That is why there are still many people who try to create various strategies so they can win at gambling. They can create many strategies that can be adapted to the situations and conditions they encounter, but they also have to remember that winning a gambling game is not easy. They must prepare as much money as they can afford and must not gamble excessively, but it is not surprising that there are still many people who end up experiencing successive losses when gambling. But that doesn't stop them from trying other strategies even though if they could think clearly, they should stop gambling first to think further. The strategy may have a mistake, so they must fix it to work next time.

Yet another gambling strategy, I do hope it works fine in the end but alas, I know pro gamblers that spent most of their past years trying to fine ways to beat casinos, they failed big and they end up quitting, they finally had to admit that there is no strategy that can ever beat a casino, what I liked about their decision is the ability they have to quit, after all the tries they went through, which many people ended up trapped in it for life.

My own strategies will remain the same, if money is what I seek for, a casino isn't the answer for me, but if I want some type of entertainment then online casino is doing that just fine for me, the second part is bankroll management, how much am I willing to risk in every rounds of game I plan to play is the best strategy that I know, nothing does it better than this.

Gambling is all about pure luck and many people don't want to believe in this, when I come across such people, I always tell them to have a good time trying, it's better you face your life challenges and try to level up avoiding the short cuts, they don't always pay.

It true, there is no strategy that can truly guarantee victory and can generate certain amount of money for its users.
But on the other hand, there are positive things that can be taken from what the OP has done, he is experimenting or testing the strategy he has and of course to be able to see whether the results are truly reliable or not.
There is experience and understanding that can be gained and this is the positive side of testing strategy or game.
We will have more experience and of course this is lesson to be able to create other strategies to increase our chances of winning.
Even though it is not guarantee, at least using strategy can give us confidence in our abilities and we must be able to accept all the results that occur.
But you still have to be in calm condition and also use the smallest amount of money in each bet, the aim is so that the losses that occur are not too big.

When we have carried out series of experiments with the strategies we have, this will indirectly develop thinking so we can learn again to create new strategies.
I know maybe this will be in vain and include throwing away money but it is much better than those who always follow other people ways and have big ambitions to win and make money.
The more experience and more learning it will make us smarter and more responsible gamblers.

No matter the strategy we chose to use or test for our gambling there can't be a guarantee on any to give a hundred percent streaks of winnings, gambling is a game of chance we can only establish a strategy to reduce impending losses and not that we're beating the house because the house has the hedge while we the gamblers has just luck on our side particularly in a game like coin tossing. When on a losing streaks martingale isn't a strategy to consider for the anticipation for recovery that surrounds the whole idea of the theory is mostly misleading.

I think at some point you really would have a losing streak but I did not expect to be it in 20 as the chance of winning is 50% (Assuming it's only 1 coin), I've tried to play similar to it something called Cara y Cruz by Bitsler (not sure if the name was right), they are using 3 coins with 4 combination choices, you can easily lose 20 streak in that kind of setup. Now, I was curious what gambling platform you are using in that game? I haven't seen a heads or tails games aside from the gambling site I mentioned.

Long tails are a long series of similar game results. In this case, we are interested in a long series of losses. Once I decided to create a strategy that would be based on martingale and that would allow me to beat an online gaming platform. It was a long time ago and I was quite naive. But it's not that. I decided to test this strategy in practice. If it works, then good, I'll become rich, and if it doesn't work, then I'll understand something interesting about the philosophy of the game. That's how I reasoned then.
     First I decided to do an experiment with coin tossing. I tossed the coin several times until the coin came up 2 times with the same value. As a result, I ended up with a series of coin drops with one side of the coin. For example, 5 reverse hits in a row.
     I started looking at the maximum length of such episodes. I did a lot of experiments with tossing and found out that the maximum length is about 8 throws of the same type.
    I calculated my martingale based on these numbers. And for several months luck was on my side. However, do you know what I lost on? On the so-called long or thick tails. I ended up with a series of 20 (!) losing results in a row. Imagine as if you were tossing a coin and it came up on the same side 20 times.